Topic: League Cup

[scouser102002]

Already ahead of you

[30fiver]

Also, they've got it down as FA Cup game


Haha

Snap hahaha

[30fiver]

Must have the interns in on work experience this week - even I'd say this ones a poor effort this morning

[scouser102002]

Honestly, a proof reader would never be short of work at this club

[alx]

Queue to register interest... ffs

[Thepooloflife]

What a fucking shit system our TO employ, eh - jeez.

[Jm55]

No-one knows for certain until or if they release numbers

But best estimates are 1 in 1.8

At a very crude guess:

Lowest attendance - Leicester home - 49,732
Highest away team allocation - West Ham - 6,000
Highest away match allocation - Fulham away - 2701

49,732 - 6,000 - 2701 = 41,031  which is the maximum number of people that can be on 3 credits - the actual figure will be slightly higher as there will be some (not many) who had AUR ACS tickets cancelled for Leiester and weren't relocated and there will be a very small number with a Fulha, credit who don't have all homes, but it's negligble you'd think.

You can then deduct 1-2000 from that figure as both West Ham and Fulham went to all members, meaning  not everyone who went to Leicester then went to West Ham and Fulham, so very crudely the number is probably around 39,000.

From that figure you can then deduct seasonal hospitality, corporate etc and I reckon judging on previous years you end up with something liek 28-29,000 who will enter the ballot.

Allocation of tickets is 32,196 of which 74% went to the general supporter allocation in 2022, assume that has gone down now with the additioanl hospo in the new stand so at a guess say 71% = 23,181.12 for general supporters and deduct from that the 2701 Fulham allocation = 20,480.12.

20,480.12 / 29,000 ballot entries = 0.71 % chance.

I appreciate the above is very crude and I am guessing particularly about the corporate/hospitalty allocations, I would imagine someone will be able to add to that with more specific numbers but the main point is that it was 1 in 1.6 last time and due to the fact that we had a reduced capacity vs Leicester (and most with cancelled tickets will have been reallocated and therefore there aren't loads who didn't go that still go the credit,) and the fact our highest away allocation (Fulham) is about half of what it was in 2022 (Arsenal,) I reckon the odds will be marginally better, but willing (not happy) to be proven wrong on that by someone with more knowledge.

[Jordellsu]

Think Horizon are running the ballot.

[Jm55]

Think Horizon are running the ballot.

Given our TO i'm surprised its not Fujitsu.

[Hij]

Given our TO i'm surprised its not Fujitsu.

We don't get a ticket, but we owe them a second time for all the tickets we've bought under Jurgen Klopp.

[lfcrule6times]

All done. Was unsuccessful 2 years ago yet got 1 in the ballot for Paris. Will happily take the same should we get to Dublin.

[ScubaSteve]

All done. Was unsuccessful 2 years ago yet got 1 in the ballot for Paris. Will happily take the same should we get to Dublin.

Yeah same here. Missed out on both domestics but went to Paris.

Shame if you miss out on one though, they can’t stick you as a priority for the next one haha. Got the Man City semi final and it didn’t count for anything…albeit a great day

[RebeccaLFC]

Yeah same here. Missed out on both domestics but went to Paris.

Shame if you miss out on one though, they can’t stick you as a priority for the next one haha. Got the Man City semi final and it didn’t count for anything…albeit a great day

That is right isn't it, was having this discussion yesterday at the match the SF at Wembley doesn't count toward the final? (rightly so like, cause it is just a ballot of luck).

[stoz]

That is right isn't it, was having this discussion yesterday at the match the SF at Wembley doesn't count toward the final? (rightly so like, cause it is just a ballot of luck).

The reason it didn't count last year, was because of the train strike.

But yeah, if they did count it then it's a double-jeopardy, which would seem very unfair.

[ScubaSteve]

That is right isn't it, was having this discussion yesterday at the match the SF at Wembley doesn't count toward the final? (rightly so like, cause it is just a ballot of luck).

Yeah it’s fair enough.

Remember a train strike being on the same day of the SF and the club had to put a load of coaches on to get there. Was gutted when I didn’t get the final after that day

Need a bit of luck if only homes for the season count

[RebeccaLFC]

The reason it didn't count last year, was because of the train strike.

But yeah, if they did count it then it's a double-jeopardy, which would seem very unfair.

Oh I thought it was the case for all the SF's at Wembley!

[30fiver]

At a very crude guess:

Lowest attendance - Leicester home - 49,732
Highest away team allocation - West Ham - 6,000
Highest away match allocation - Fulham away - 2701

49,732 - 6,000 - 2701 = 41,031  which is the maximum number of people that can be on 3 credits - the actual figure will be slightly higher as there will be some (not many) who had AUR ACS tickets cancelled for Leiester and weren't relocated and there will be a very small number with a Fulha, credit who don't have all homes, but it's negligble you'd think.

You can then deduct 1-2000 from that figure as both West Ham and Fulham went to all members, meaning  not everyone who went to Leicester then went to West Ham and Fulham, so very crudely the number is probably around 39,000.

From that figure you can then deduct seasonal hospitality, corporate etc and I reckon judging on previous years you end up with something liek 28-29,000 who will enter the ballot.

Allocation of tickets is 32,196 of which 74% went to the general supporter allocation in 2022, assume that has gone down now with the additioanl hospo in the new stand so at a guess say 71% = 23,181.12 for general supporters and deduct from that the 2701 Fulham allocation = 20,480.12.

20,480.12 / 29,000 ballot entries = 0.71 % chance.

I appreciate the above is very crude and I am guessing particularly about the corporate/hospitalty allocations, I would imagine someone will be able to add to that with more specific numbers but the main point is that it was 1 in 1.6 last time and due to the fact that we had a reduced capacity vs Leicester (and most with cancelled tickets will have been reallocated and therefore there aren't loads who didn't go that still go the credit,) and the fact our highest away allocation (Fulham) is about half of what it was in 2022 (Arsenal,) I reckon the odds will be marginally better, but willing (not happy) to be proven wrong on that by someone with more knowledge.

Some things to note which haven't been considered into your calculations properly

• Leicester cancelled ACS & STH seats in ARU got given a credit anyway regardless of attendance, realistically you have to use West Ham
• Your 'new' hospo' figure allows for approx 750 new seasonal hospo holders, not the 1,800 ish that actually exist
• The club has signed new partnerships with sponsors etc since 2022, which no doubt includes tickets
• 2022 was a creditless season where people didn't bother buying some games if they weren't going to go etc

So in summary

• Lower allocation from EFL
• More taken off for corporate hospo
• Less taken from away ladder fans
• More entrants due to away ladder fans
• More entrants due to expansion with ticket holders in ARU given a credit anyway..

My personal guess is 1 in 1.8, might be 1 in 1.7
Will certainly be worse odds than 2022

I wish I could be one of those people who view it as 50/50 - you get one or you don't

[Jm55]

Some things to note which haven't been considered into your calculations properly

• Leicester cancelled ACS & STH seats in ARU got given a credit anyway regardless of attendance, realistically you have to use West Ham
• Your 'new' hospo' figure allows for approx 750 new seasonal hospo holders, not the 1,800 ish that actually exist
• The club has signed new partnerships with sponsors etc since 2022, which no doubt includes tickets
• 2022 was a creditless season where people didn't bother buying some games if they weren't going to go etc

So in summary

• Lower allocation from EFL
• More taken off for corporate hospo
• Less taken from away ladder fans
• More entrants due to away ladder fans
• More entrants due to expansion with ticket holders in ARU given a credit anyway..

My personal guess is 1 in 1.8, might be 1 in 1.7
Will certainly be worse odds than 2022

I wish I could be one of those people who view it as 50/50 - you get one or you don't

On the Leicester match point - you only got a credit without having got a ticket if you had an ACS ticket in the UAR which was cancelled and they couldn’t reallocate - you then would have had the opportunity to purchase in the all members sale if you wanted to (which was easy to get a ticket).

There will obviously be some that have had their ticket cancelled and got the credit but I would imagine that the vast majority of people who had cancelled tickets will have ended up with a ticket in their name on way or another.

On the corporate point it was just a total guess so I’m sure you’re right.

[30fiver]

On the Leicester match point - you only got a credit without having got a ticket if you had an ACS ticket in the UAR which was cancelled and they couldn’t reallocate - you then would have had the opportunity to purchase in the all members sale if you wanted to (which was easy to get a ticket).

There will obviously be some that have had their ticket cancelled and got the credit but I would imagine that the vast majority of people who had cancelled tickets will have ended up with a ticket in their name on way or another.

On the corporate point it was just a total guess so I’m sure you’re right.

I know an awful lot who just took the free hit on the free credit and didn't buy, guess west ham is conservative

Also will have a handful who bought hospo for leicester then got standards for the next games

[scouser102002]

The reason it didn't count last year, was because of the train strike.

But yeah, if they did count it then it's a double-jeopardy, which would seem very unfair.

They counted in 2012, the last time we were in the FA Cup final.

They should count for me, you've attended to the game.

Didn't think about the train strike issue though, I reckon they'll keep it though.

[ScubaSteve]

They counted in 2012, the last time we were in the FA Cup final.

They should count for me, you've attended to the game.

Didn't think about the train strike issue though, I reckon they'll keep it though.

It was worse then for us members as STHs got first dibs and were all guarenteed

[RedPat]

At a very crude guess:

Lowest attendance - Leicester home - 49,732
Highest away team allocation - West Ham - 6,000
Highest away match allocation - Fulham away - 2701

49,732 - 6,000 - 2701 = 41,031  which is the maximum number of people that can be on 3 credits - the actual figure will be slightly higher as there will be some (not many) who had AUR ACS tickets cancelled for Leiester and weren't relocated and there will be a very small number with a Fulha, credit who don't have all homes, but it's negligble you'd think.

You can then deduct 1-2000 from that figure as both West Ham and Fulham went to all members, meaning  not everyone who went to Leicester then went to West Ham and Fulham, so very crudely the number is probably around 39,000.

From that figure you can then deduct seasonal hospitality, corporate etc and I reckon judging on previous years you end up with something liek 28-29,000 who will enter the ballot.

Allocation of tickets is 32,196 of which 74% went to the general supporter allocation in 2022, assume that has gone down now with the additioanl hospo in the new stand so at a guess say 71% = 23,181.12 for general supporters and deduct from that the 2701 Fulham allocation = 20,480.12.

20,480.12 / 29,000 ballot entries = 0.71 % chance.

I appreciate the above is very crude and I am guessing particularly about the corporate/hospitalty allocations, I would imagine someone will be able to add to that with more specific numbers but the main point is that it was 1 in 1.6 last time and due to the fact that we had a reduced capacity vs Leicester (and most with cancelled tickets will have been reallocated and therefore there aren't loads who didn't go that still go the credit,) and the fact our highest away allocation (Fulham) is about half of what it was in 2022 (Arsenal,) I reckon the odds will be marginally better, but willing (not happy) to be proven wrong on that by someone with more knowledge.

I actually know 3 people who have Fulham away but don’t have 3 homes.

[Jm55]

I actually know 3 people who have Fulham away but don’t have 3 homes.

Yeah there’ll obviously be some but not enough to make a tangible difference to the odds.

[30fiver]

I actually know 3 people who have Fulham away but don’t have 3 homes.

Yeah theres one of our lads with Fulham and Bournemouth away but didnt bother with any of the home games so he aint even in the ballot haha

[Jm55]

Does anyone good at maths know if applying in a pair of a single makes any difference to your odds of a ticket?

[ScubaSteve]

Does anyone good at maths know if applying in a pair of a single makes any difference to your odds of a ticket?

For you personally, it really doesn’t make a difference. For your group however, if you don’t mind going on your own then getting 2 out of 4 for example, is better than no tickets at all if you were unsuccessful as a group.

[ABJ]

Does anyone good at maths know if applying in a pair of a single makes any difference to your odds of a ticket?

If only applying for 2 tickets then without a doubt, doing 2 x ballot entries will give you a better chance of ending up with a ticket rather that doing 1 x ballot entry for both tickets.

[30fiver]

Does anyone good at maths know if applying in a pair of a single makes any difference to your odds of a ticket?

Define odds of a ticket

Statistically, you have a higher chance of coming away with at least 1 ticket if you apply as two singles than as a pair. Entering as a pair you have better odds of coming away with 2 tickets than entering as two singles

its based on transaction number, so entering as groups is all or nothing... if you really really want 1 ticket and have 2 entries, enter as singles, more chance of 1 of them being drawn out

The big differences are when you start this conversation about groups of 3-8


For example, 13 single entries for the CL final in 2019 gave a 97% chance of getting a single ticket in a ballot that was 1 in 4.something

[Craig S]

Does anyone good at maths know if applying in a pair of a single makes any difference to your odds of a ticket?

Assuming odds of 1 in 1.8

Apply in a pair:
55% chance getting 2
45% chance getting 0

Apply as 2 singles:
31% chance of getting 2
49% chance of getting either one
20% chance of getting 0

If you only want to go if your mate/family does, then do the first one. If you have 2 entries available to you and you want one for yourself, do the 2nd option.

[Jm55]

Thanks!

This is the kind of maths which fries my head!

[tasmichkata]

Moved to 3pm.

[30fiver]

Moved to 3pm.

Aye

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/new-kick-time-carabao-cup-final

[ABJ]

Moved to 3pm.

c*nts, zero fucks given to the match going supporter as per usual. Refunds for those that have already booked trains? No fucking chance.

[30fiver]

c*nts, zero fucks given to the match going supporter as per usual. Refunds for those that have already booked trains? No fucking chance.

Hate the TV lot, whys it taking so long to decide when to play the Luton game, redic

[scouser102002]

c*nts, zero fucks given to the match going supporter as per usual. Refunds for those that have already booked trains? No fucking chance.

Even Sky Sports will be pissed off as it overlaps with the league game they’re showing now.

Met just want an earlier dart. I’m sure the 90 minute time different will make all the difference in terms of the violence that is apparently going to happen

[Red_Irishman]

Assuming odds of 1 in 1.8

Apply in a pair:
55% chance getting 2
45% chance getting 0

Apply as 2 singles:
31% chance of getting 2
49% chance of getting either one
20% chance of getting 0

If you only want to go if your mate/family does, then do the first one. If you have 2 entries available to you and you want one for yourself, do the 2nd option.

Do these odds change as a 3? Applied as a 3, same as the last LC final. Got lucky the last time.

I’m going by a 1 in 1.8 chance that I’m reading online. So 55%. My destiny is in the hands of the gods

[CornerTakenQuickly]

Do these odds change as a 3? Applied as a 3, same as the last LC final. Got lucky the last time.

I’m going by a 1 in 1.8 chance that I’m reading online. So 55%. My destiny is in the hands of the gods

Using 55% chance:

Apply as 3:

3: 55%
0: 45%

Apply as 3 singles:

3: 17%
2: 41%
1: 33%
0: 9%

[Red_Irishman]

Using 55% chance:

Apply as 3:

3: 55%
0: 45%

Apply as 3 singles:

3: 17%
2: 41%
1: 33%
0: 9%

Thanks mate, we’re all gonna travel together so it’s all or nothing. The last final was best match experience I’ve ever had. Praying for this one to come through.

[stonecold_jpm]

Using 55% chance:

Apply as 3:

3: 55%
0: 45%

Apply as 3 singles:

3: 17%
2: 41%
1: 33%
0: 9%

Surely there’s more chance of getting at least one if there’s 3 single entries? That’s how we’ve always done ours and we’ve always got at least one.

[Jm55]

Surely there’s more chance of getting at least one if there’s 3 single entries? That’s how we’ve always done ours and we’ve always got at least one.

Yeah there is.

Any one of outcomes 1-3 would result in getting at least one ticket, so you can add the percentages together to give you a total chance of 91% vs 55% which would be the chance if you applied as one group of three.