Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[classycarra]

I absolutely would. It's Remainers finding excuses not to fight for what they believe in.

Noel's so spineless he didn't even vote, so I wouldn't call him a remainer.

[oldfordie]

The thing is that the European car industry (certainly in the UK ) will change massively after Brexit. This isn't a 1% hit, it's 10% at least. Imagine having a 10% pay cut. Unless you're megaprofit (and the car industry isn't) then you have to restructure. The car industry already has massive collaboration between different corporations, mine (Vauxhall/Opel/Peugeot/Citroen/Renault) is just one. Maybe under different non-EU regulations, we'll see different standard cars in the UK vs the EU and all manufacturers will share the cost by sharing the same UK supply chains. Depending on where we end up, it may be that making local cars for local people (I see all Brexiteers as Edward and Tubbs) works. I'm clutching at straws, I know that. It'll end up like the 70's and 80's again where it's cheaper to go over to Europe, have a 2 week holiday and buy a car while you're there and come back with a profit to the cries of 'rip-off Britain' again. Great days.

I only remember Just in Time breaking down twice in my years in a car plant. both due to extreme weather conditions. absolute chaos. ground to a halt in no time, Company got so desperate they were flying engines in to drip feed the lines. people may wonder why dont they just get supplies locally as you know it doesn't work that way, the company may have a engine plant or whatever and it mass produces for other plants abroad. so even though this is classed as a EU import it still comes from inside the company.
As you say there will have to be some massive reorganization to over come problems otherwise costs will soar.

[killer-heels]

Allistair Campbell and Gisela Stuart have just been locking horns on Brexit. Stuart is absolutely delusional and there is no way I can accept a world where she is proven right. This country will get its comeuppance in a few years and knob heads like her need to be paraded in the stocks as we get to throw tomatoes at her.

[oldfordie]

Allistair Campbell and Gisela Stuart have just been locking horns on Brexit. Stuart is absolutely delusional and there is no way I can accept a world where she is proven right. This country will get its comeuppance in a few years and knob heads like her need to be paraded in the stocks as we get to throw tomatoes at her.

It was all the EUs fault.
The arrogance of some of the leave campaigners is mind boggling.
We are leaving the EU to get full control over our borders, nobody is going to tell us what to do.
Kate Hoey tells the EU to stop messing about, don't be putting any borders up in Ireland.
Can you believe the hypocrisy and double standards of this woman.we are now putting borders up but telling other countries to tear down their borders to solve the problems we created ourselves.
Leave supporters will swallow it though, another bit of dirt to throw at the EU,

[Libertine]

@Scientists4EU

Today we find out which European city has won the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

But what a loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London. Thanks to #Brexit.

[classycarra]

@Scientists4EU

Today we find out which European city has won the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

But what a loss for the UK: 900 jobs, €322m budget (89% from fees & charges, 5% from EU), health industry setting up nearby & 40,000 business visits a year. Gone from London. Thanks to #Brexit.

Banking Authority the day after too, which apparently looks like it's off to Frankfurt. Would assume that would kick off a swift exodus there

[oldfordie]

Thought this would be sorted in 2nd round of talks, seems not.
Project fear turning to realty.

Brexit: UK banks will lose 'passporting rights' after Britain leaves EU, Brussels says
'Brexit means Brexit, everywhere,' Michel Barnier says

Thousands of British financial institutions rely on the rules Thomson Reuters
British banks will lose "passporting rights" to do business in the European Union after Brexit, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator has said.
Speaking in Brussels on Monday Michel Barnier said that "Brexit means Brexit, everywhere" and that there could be no opt-ins to parts of the single market for certain industries.
“The legal consequence of Brexit is that the UK financial service providers lose their EU passport. This passport allows them to offer their services to a market of 500 million consumers and 22 million businesses."
The pronouncement is bad news for the City, where over 5,400 British firms rely on passporting rights to bring in £9 billion in revenue every year to Britain. The BBA has said the loss of passporting would be “disruptive, costly and time-consuming”.
It also comes the same day as the EU announces where it will relocating the European Banking Authority, an EU agency currently based in London, after Brexit.
“On financial services, UK voices suggest that Brexit does not mean Brexit. Brexit means Brexit, everywhere,” Mr Barnier said in a major speech to a think-tank.
The chief negotiator said the EU might judge some UK rules as “equivalent” to EU passporting rights but ruled out the City of London having access to EU financial markets under the same passporting deal as now.
Mr Barnier told the audience at the Centre for European Reform: “Those who claim that the UK should pick parts of the single market must stop this contradiction. The single market is a package, with four indivisible freedoms, common rules, institutions, and enforcement structures
“The UK knows these rules very well, like the back of its hand. It has contributed to defining them over the last 44 years with a certain degree of influence. We took note of the UK decisions to end free movement of people and this means clearly that the UK will lose the benefits of the single market.
“This is a legal reality; the EU does not want to punish, it simply draws the logical consequence of the UK decision to take back control.”

As well as ruling out a carve-out for the financial sector, Mr Barnier appeared to suggest there could be no special deal for the UK's car manufacturers to stay in the single market, as proposed by industry bodies.

In the same speech the senior EU official also expressed disappointment at what he suggested as a fixation in some British circles on "no deal" being a viable option for the UK
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-passporting-rights-banks-financial-services-michel-barnier-speech-talks-david-davis-a8064836.html

[PaulF]

Maybe Theresa is playing a blinder, she's making brexit such an utter clusterfuck there's no option but to abandon it.

[killer-heels]

The Tories are discussing havingbto up the settlement offer. Its the right thing but they will suffer the political damage of it. Oh dear.

[oldfordie]

Maybe Theresa is playing a blinder, she's making brexit such an utter clusterfuck there's no option but to abandon it.

Thats crossed my mind many times. shes messed up so badly you would think people would be very concerned,  I dont think the majority of leave voters follow the news though,it's scary. they've been stuck in a "They need us more than we need them" time warp bubble the last 18 months.

[Libertine]

Looks like it might be between Dublin, Barcelona, Brussels, Amsterdam and Milan.

[oldfordie]

The Tories are discussing havingbto up the settlement offer. Its the right thing but they will suffer the political damage of it. Oh dear.

I think it's a perfect example of just how easily led voters are.
Millions of leave voters are ok with £20 bill but they think they know enough to be outraged at a £38 bill. it's outrageous to them because the hard right nutters are telling them to be outraged. wtf does the average leave voter know about financial settlements. if the hard right had told them to be outraged over a £5 bill settlement they would be up in arms over £5 bill. they are being played like puppets.
I have no idea what the settlement should be, neither do any of us, the only way we can find out is when the UK write down what commitments we feel the UK are committed too and for how long and how much.Something the EU has asked us to do but we refuse to do it.

[SP]

£20bn is a year of £350m a week to the NHS. £38bn is nearly 2 years.

Based on a net contribution of £8.6bn from 2016 - £38bn is 4.4 years of EU membership contributions.

[Ray K]

Looks like it might be between Dublin, Barcelona, Brussels, Amsterdam and Milan.

Dublin has pulled out.

I think we're focusing on getting the Champions League final instead.

[classycarra]

Looks like it might be between Dublin, Barcelona, Brussels, Amsterdam and Milan.

Seems odd that Dublin Barcelona and Milan would be considered ahead of Copenhagen. I guess Dublin is only really included on account of ease of relocation - though Brits may need a visa to travel such a short distance soon..

[Libertine]

Seems odd that Dublin Barcelona and Milan would be considered ahead of Copenhagen. I guess Dublin is only really included on account of ease of relocation - though Brits may need a visa to travel such a short distance soon..

Oops, forgot to mention Copenhagen. They also seem to be a top candidate based on the 3 criteria. Would be a good decision - would like to see it go to a smaller country, especially if Frankfurt gets the banking one. Copenhagen, Amsterdam or Bratislava.

[filopastry]

The Tories are discussing havingbto up the settlement offer. Its the right thing but they will suffer the political damage of it. Oh dear.

If Ireland and the EU are serious about the border issue being a redline in negotiations, then the financial settlement is the least of our worries, as I don't see a solution to the Irish border issue in current circumstances at all.

I think the Tories won't take as much of a hit for the settlement as we might hope.

Firstly what is Labour's stance on the settlement, I can't see how Labour can honestly pay it if required based on their current stance and the Remain leaning nature of a lot of their support.

Secondly I'm sure whatever Brexit headbanger ends up leading the Tories into the next election will be leaking how opposed they are to the whole thing and its a failure by May and the negotiation team rather than an inevitable consequence of conning the public into voting for a shitty decision and then lying their arse off about the inevitable consequences of it.

[killer-heels]

If Ireland and the EU are serious about the border issue being a redline in negotiations, then the financial settlement is the least of our worries, as I don't see a solution to the Irish border issue in current circumstances at all.

I think the Tories won't take as much of a hit for the settlement as we might hope.

Firstly what is Labour's stance on the settlement, I can't see how Labour can honestly pay it if required based on their current stance and the Remain leaning nature of a lot of their support.

Secondly I'm sure whatever Brexit headbanger ends up leading the Tories into the next election will be leaking how opposed they are to the whole thing and its a failure by May and the negotiation team rather than an inevitable consequence of conning the public into voting for a shitty decision and then lying their arse off about the inevitable consequences of it.

The general public are not that politically aware that they will notice all the leaks that such a Brexiteer would make. As far as they are concerned, the Tories paid it. They won't distinguish, in the way Labour wasn't given the benefit during the financial crash.

The only reason the money has taken so long because the Tories know it won't be good for them and its easy to spin it into a criticism when you tell the public how much you have coughed up.

As for Labour, don't talk much about it. Divert the question, be vague, don't get associated with it.

[redbyrdz]

Mr Barnier told the audience at the Centre for European Reform: “Those who claim that the UK should pick parts of the single market must stop this contradiction. The single market is a package, with four indivisible freedoms, common rules, institutions, and enforcement structures
“The UK knows these rules very well, like the back of its hand. It has contributed to defining them over the last 44 years with a certain degree of influence. We took note of the UK decisions to end free movement of people and this means clearly that the UK will lose the benefits of the single market.
“This is a legal reality; the EU does not want to punish, it simply draws the logical consequence of the UK decision to take back control.”

This really says it well and is exactly what seems to be misunderstood by those thinking about 'a deal'.

[classycarra]

Oops, forgot to mention Copenhagen. They also seem to be a top candidate based on the 3 criteria. Would be a good decision - would like to see it go to a smaller country, especially if Frankfurt gets the banking one. Copenhagen, Amsterdam or Bratislava.

Agreed. They also have a good standing in health and public health, and some established international conferences.

Agree on trying to spread it round rather that settling where the financial services sectors settle, though having said that London didn't - but the UK decided to take back control, for the rest of Europe that is, so it can be more equitable now. And the UK can get to being a tourism economy which can ill afford decent public services

[oldfordie]

This really says it well and is exactly what seems to be misunderstood by those thinking about 'a deal'.

I think this great deal is all a mystery to leave supporters. it's as if they think our negotiators will be saying ahh go on give us a special deal to trade in the SM. they seem to think the EU will turn around one day and cave in and give us what we want.
Someone was talking to a few Members of the EU in Brussels last week, they put the UKs position well.
It's not really about negotiations, it's about choices, if the UK chose to abide by certain EU regulations then a deal will be done. thats all this is to it really. any deal will depend on what we are prepared to give. this is why Brexit will turn into a s..storm.
Any good Brexit deal will mean a climb down. leave voters will feel betrayed. a no deal means disaster and another s... torm. I prefer the leave voters s...storm far more.

[filopastry]

The general public are not that politically aware that they will notice all the leaks that such a Brexiteer would make. As far as they are concerned, the Tories paid it. They won't distinguish, in the way Labour wasn't given the benefit during the financial crash.

The only reason the money has taken so long because the Tories know it won't be good for them and its easy to spin it into a criticism when you tell the public how much you have coughed up.

As for Labour, don't talk much about it. Divert the question, be vague, don't get associated with it.

Most of the hardcore Brexiters amongst the general publicwill believe whatever the Daily Mail and Express will tell them, sadly, even more sadly most of the rest probably won't even pay attention to how much we have paid.

For me the reason there have been endless delays on the financial settlement is more because Theresa May knows the hardcore Brexiters within the Tory party are going to use it as an excuse to move against her, claiming its a betrayal and they could negotiate a better deal.

[Libertine]

@ChukaUmunna
BREAKING: The Brexit Minister Lord Callanan has just given a personal statement in the House of Lords to correct himself on the revocability of Art 50 having wrongly claimed in the Lords last week that the UK could not legally revoke Art 50



Well.

Or as DAG is saying these days, Gosh.

[SP]

I understand the desperation, I really do, but it's crazy to be having these arguments now after the 2015 election of the party promising a referendum, after the referendum itself, after the Miller case in the Supreme Court, after Article 50, after the 2017 election.

You clearly don't understand the supreme court decision. That forced the bill the Corbyn utterly capitulated on. It says nothing about whether Article 50 can be unilaterally revoked. None of the decisions that May has made have any real democratic mandate behind them. She took her party to the polls to secure a mandate for her vision of Brexit. The people rejected it. She failed to secure a parliamentary majority. There was not a ringing endorsement of her interpretation of the referendum. I see no sign that the Government will get anywhere near the unicorns and rainbows promised by the Leave campaign. And if the result is nothing like what was promised, what is the justification for following through?

And today Callanan did apologise. In a statement to peers, he said that his statement last Monday was incorrect. That was a result of “a misunderstanding of the question”, he said.

"To reiterate, for the avoidance of any doubt, the supreme court proceeded in the Miller case on the basis that article 50 would not be be revoked, but did not rule on the legal position regarding its irrevocability. It was, and remains, the government’s policy that our notification of article 50 will not be withdrawn ...

I recognise that my comments have caused confusion and I apologise to the House."

[oldfordie]

@ChukaUmunna
BREAKING: The Brexit Minister Lord Callanan has just given a personal statement in the House of Lords to correct himself on the revocability of Art 50 having wrongly claimed in the Lords last week that the UK could not legally revoke Art 50



Well.

Or as DAG is saying these days, Gosh.

I would hope Labours Brexit minister Paul Bloomfield corrects himself in the commons as well.

"The article 50 notification made our exit from the European Union in March 2019 a legal certainty,"

[Ray K]

Milan vs Amsterdam for the medicines agency.  Repeat of the 1995 Champions League final, basically.

[Libertine]

Milan vs Amsterdam for the medicines agency.  Repeat of the 1995 Champions League final, basically.

This is quite exciting. The EU should do more of this - like Eurovision but actually important.....

[Ray K]

This is quite exciting. The EU should do more of this - like Eurovision but actually important.....

The Dutch win a penalty shoot-out.  Well, after drawing of lots actually.

[Libertine]

 

Slovakia abstained. Bitter about losing?

Wow, good for Amsterdam!!

[Libertine]

And now the bankers:



WHO’S IN THE RUNNING

Eight cities want the EBA: Brussels; Dublin; Frankfurt; Luxembourg City; Paris; Prague; Vienna; and Warsaw.

[Libertine]

Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin after round 1 - the EU's big three.

[SP]

Brexit: Electoral Commission reopens probe into Vote Leave
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42055523


Because it was always credible that you would give this person £625K completely legitimately.

[Alan_X]

Brexit: Electoral Commission reopens probe into Vote Leave
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42055523


Because it was always credible that you would give this person £625K completely legitimately.

Students eh? - I often ran up a £675,000 bill with a political marketing company when I was a student. Absolutely no way he was just acting as a front to launder campaign funds... oh no...

[Libertine]

Bah, Paris beats Dublin on a coin toss again.

First the World Cup and now this.....

[Trada]

Add it to our bill.

[classycarra]

Add it to our bill.

Do you have a problem with it? Might have picked the wrong horse in Corbyn then mate. This is what he and that c*nt McDonnell want

[Libertine]

Funny that Davis got this wrong. Luckily, he's on top of everything else related to Brexit.

[killer-heels]

Most of the hardcore Brexiters amongst the general publicwill believe whatever the Daily Mail and Express will tell them, sadly, even more sadly most of the rest probably won't even pay attention to how much we have paid.

For me the reason there have been endless delays on the financial settlement is more because Theresa May knows the hardcore Brexiters within the Tory party are going to use it as an excuse to move against her, claiming its a betrayal and they could negotiate a better deal.

So the hard core Brexiteers get through to what, 10% of the country? 20% of the country? 30%?

The press have an influence but the idea that the Brexiteers and Tories will spin this to their own ways and still win everything under the sun is not realistic. If we pay the bill, it will be the Tories nailed with the damage.

The papers influence has been diluted.

[filopastry]

So the hard core Brexiteers get through to what, 10% of the country? 20% of the country? 30%?

The press have an influence but the idea that the Brexiteers and Tories will spin this to their own ways and still win everything under the sun is not realistic. If we pay the bill, it will be the Tories nailed with the damage.

The papers influence has been diluted.

Labour are no more coherent on this than the Tories, so I don't think it will be as damaging as we all might hope, if the Tories were fighting the next election under May it would be more of an issue, but that isn't going to happen, they will still take a hit for this but not I suspect a critical one.

Hell they already offered to keep paying 20bn to the EU contrary to all the dickheads who said we wouldn't pay a penny and the polls haven't moved at all

[Trada]

Do you have a problem with it? Might have picked the wrong horse in Corbyn then mate. This is what he and that c*nt McDonnell want

So now its Labours fault ok.