Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[farawayred]

I also wouldn’t underestimate the difficulty involved in taking the bridge down, the Russians arnt that stupid and will have it absolutely defended from sea and missile attacks, having weapons with the range to reach the bridge is just half the problem.

The other half has been solved on several occasions, which led to the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to Russian territory. The Russians have a very porous air defense in Crimea that can be easily overwhelmed by drones to let the long-range missiles do their work.

[Lone Star Red]

Hello...Hello!

The US secretly sent long-range ATACMS to Ukraine — and Kyiv used them
The transfer of Army Tactical Missile Systems with a nearly 200-mile range ends a yearslong drama between Washington and Kyiv.

By ALEXANDER WARD and LARA SELIGMAN

04/24/2024 12:30 PM EDT

Updated: 04/24/2024 12:47 PM EDT

The Biden administration last month secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for the first time in the two-year war — and Kyiv has already used the weapon twice to strike deep behind Russian lines.

...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110

[TSC]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics/biden-signs-foreign-aid-bill/index.html

[west_london_red]

The other half has been solved on several occasions, which led to the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to Russian territory. The Russians have a very porous air defense in Crimea that can be easily overwhelmed by drones to let the long-range missiles do their work.

Has Ukraine managed to hit the bridge yet? I know there was that truck that exploded but so far despite overwhelming air defences and hitting airbases in Crimea they haven’t hit the bridge. That would at least for me suggest the bridge is better defended.

[farawayred]

Has Ukraine managed to hit the bridge yet? I know there was that truck that exploded but so far despite overwhelming air defences and hitting airbases in Crimea they haven’t hit the bridge. That would at least for me suggest the bridge is better defended.

I meant that Ukraine managed to breach the porous Russian air defense on several occasions. They didn't have long range missions to hit the bridge, but the hole in the sky was open. Now they have long range (300 km) ATACMS, now the bridge can likely be brought down.

[Schmidt]

I meant that Ukraine managed to breach the porous Russian air defense on several occasions. They didn't have long range missions to hit the bridge, but the hole in the sky was open. Now they have long range (300 km) ATACMS, now the bridge can likely be brought down.

They're able to breach air defences around Crimea through a combination of overwhelming the defences with drones, using drones/decoys to reveal and then destroy radars/launchers, and spreading drones across a wide area to look for areas lacking in coverage. However, the closer you get to the Kerch bridge the denser anti-air is likely to be, so the above strategies only get you so far. You also potentially have to hit a single support multiple times to have an impact and ATACMS are only accurate up to about 10 metres, so they'd really have to launch a lot of them to stand a chance of taking the bridge out long term.

There are a few potentially big benefits to ATACMS that I'm aware of. The first is that stockpiles all the way up to the coast should be in range for Ukraine, meaning they could go back to destroying equipment before it reaches the front. Another is that there are cluster variations of ATACMS, which can be (and have been) dropped on Russian airfields to take aircraft out for the foreseeable future. I think they also carry a bigger payload than Storm Shadows, which makes them better at blowing up unfortified buildings and storage areas, but I'm not 100% on that.

Hopefully they arrive in large quantities, that's probably been the biggest issue with Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the numbers are limited.

[PaulF]

I guess it's not news but I read that we are still buying lots of wuzsian oil bit because it's processed elsewhere its 'allowed' 😒

[thaddeus]

I guess it's not news but I read that we are still buying lots of wuzsian oil bit because it's processed elsewhere its 'allowed' 😒

Yes and that's the problem with long-standing sanctions as eventually almost any sanction can be worked around.  Oil and gas exported to the west via intermediaries and components for their war machine imported from China via intermediaries.

I'm not saying that the sanctions should be lifted as they still serve a purpose - primarily that Russia sells below the rates it could achieve if it didn't have to sell via intermediaries.  It would be good if they could be applied in a more watertight way but very difficult when there's so many immoral people happy to make their money by enabling this bypassing of sanctions.

[Red Beret]

Russian forces pushing to recapture Robotyne, but it seems that Ukraine - so far at least - have tactical drone superiority. The town and surrounding area look like the surface of the moon.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/33LL8vXRfEM&amp;ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/33LL8vXRfEM&amp;ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine</a>

[rhysd]

Currently Russian gains daily in Donetsk oblast. No major breakthrough still, but it's looking ominous. I hate checking Deepstatemap these days.

Russia seems to have changed tactics. Unfortunately they have finally realised that armoured vehicles are an easy target and Ukraine is incredibly good at destroying them.

Recently they've been using troops on motorbikes, fast moving and gets under the artillery. Many die but enough get through and they keep sending them until enough survive to hold the position, then they can make progress.

Kharkiv is rumoured to be the target for a huge Russian summer offensive too. They've been bombing the shit out of it recently.

Unless Ukraine can rustle up a few hundred thousand trained troops and a couple of hundred modern jets from somewhere it's hard to see how they get the initiative back.

Reports saying they might get a handful of old F-16's maybe in July, but they said it would be January at one point, it keeps getting put back. Starting to think they don't exist.

It's disgraceful this has been allowed to happen, the West should have put their foot on Putin in 2014 when he started this thing.

[west_london_red]

Yes and that's the problem with long-standing sanctions as eventually almost any sanction can be worked around.  Oil and gas exported to the west via intermediaries and components for their war machine imported from China via intermediaries.

I'm not saying that the sanctions should be lifted as they still serve a purpose - primarily that Russia sells below the rates it could achieve if it didn't have to sell via intermediaries.  It would be good if they could be applied in a more watertight way but very difficult when there's so many immoral people happy to make their money by enabling this bypassing of sanctions.

Even if the war ends tomorrow sanctions shouldn’t be lifted on Russia, the pressure shouldn’t be eased up on Putin’s regime as long as he’s alive and Russia is a threat to its neighbours.

[Lone Star Red]

Christopher Miller
@ChristopherJM

Two senior Ukrainian intel officials described Russia’s attacks along the frontline and missile strikes on Kharkiv as softening the battlefield before a major offensive. The officials expect Russia to launch a new large-scale assault in late May or June.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1785025127702253784

Article here:
https://www.ft.com/content/1e7204cf-ebb0-443d-9c67-84cba2332391?shareType=nongift

[Schmidt]

Even if the war ends tomorrow sanctions shouldn’t be lifted on Russia, the pressure shouldn’t be eased up on Putin’s regime as long as he’s alive and Russia is a threat to its neighbours.

I think they're supposed to remain in place until reparations have been paid. They should be indefinite however, make it clear to nations like Russia just how high the price is for their actions.

[PaulF]

Even if the war ends tomorrow sanctions shouldn’t be lifted on Russia, the pressure shouldn’t be eased up on Putin’s regime as long as he’s alive and Russia is a threat to its neighbours.

Sanctions hurt ordinary Russian folk more than outin and his cronies. It's not like they even vote for putin any more.

[west_london_red]

Sanctions hurt ordinary Russian folk more than outin and his cronies. It's not like they even vote for putin any more.

Personally I’m not going to lose sleep over that, as much as the Russian people are suffering it’s a lot less than the people of Ukraine.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Cluster ATACMS taking a heavy toll on the Russians today.

[Red Beret]

Russia continues to treat this like WW2; their only solution is to throw thousands of conscripts into the meat grinder of the front lines until something breaks.

If it's correct that Russia hopes to renew their offensives after the spring rains, then I think they'll struggle. Ukraine should have been able to rearm a fair bit thanks to renewed American support.

[Draex]

America just needs to send every single spare Bradley they have, so many videos of them grinding through anything Russia has.

[PaulF]

Personally I’m not going to lose sleep over that, as much as the Russian people are suffering it’s a lot less than the people of Ukraine.

That , of course, won't be case though when the war is ended!

[west_london_red]

Russia continues to treat this like WW2; their only solution is to throw thousands of conscripts into the meat grinder of the front lines until something breaks.

If it's correct that Russia hopes to renew their offensives after the spring rains, then I think they'll struggle. Ukraine should have been able to rearm a fair bit thanks to renewed American support.

That might the only option the Ukrainians have left unfortunately, give up any hope of moving forward and just fortify their lines and let Putin just keep throwing bodies at the Ukrainians until the Russians run out of bodies or the death toll starts causing trouble on the home front.

[Schmidt]

That might the only option the Ukrainians have left unfortunately, give up any hope of moving forward and just fortify their lines and let Putin just keep throwing bodies at the Ukrainians until the Russians run out of bodies or the death toll starts causing trouble on the home front.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing for Ukraine. Moving forward is costly, so the more aggressive Russia are the more attrition Ukraine can inflict without having to advance themselves. Unfortunately Ukraine don't have the equipment in place to keep Russia at arms length but hopefully as more aid finds its way to the front things will stabilise, and they can potentially even quickly and cheaply retake any territory that Russia haven't dug into yet.