Author Topic: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)  (Read 26022 times)

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #120 on: February 6, 2014, 01:26:29 am »
This is supposed to be evidence that peak age for goalscorers is indeed 23-26, although I'm having to squint a bit to see it. I think the way to explain the outliers is basically survivor bias, but I must say it confuses me.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #121 on: February 6, 2014, 01:36:36 am »
Well, I agree with that, especially that it's about adjusting to professional pace rather than developing some new skill out of whole cloth. We've disagreed in the past about whether Sterling is a "goalscorer," and I'd say that while he doesn't look a completely natural finisher (i.e., he'll never be Ronaldo or probably even Walcott), he did show that goal scoring ability at youth level. It's not that I think he'll ever be a great finisher, but every thing else in his game is so good (or at least has much potential) that he'll score plenty of goals anyway.

I actually agree with you on that, and I think we got sidetracked a bit on the other stuff. What I meant was that getting into good positions is desirable, but in the fullness of time, if he (or any similar player) doesn't finish a good number of chances that this movement creates for him, then he will ultimately be judged on this. In other words, if he gets to 30 years old, and scores no more than 3-4 goals per season as an attacking player in the front or supporting line (with at least 30 appearances, say), then he will be judged by this rate, rather than his ability to get into space. I think his conversion rate is fine, it can and will be improved, and we won't have any worries about him in that respect. My part in sidetracking the discussion was just to emphasise that attacking players need an end product, otherwise they end up getting replaced by new players who do have it. Sterling is in a great position right now - young enough to develop his scoring rate (with all the signs being positive in that area), has good movement and understanding of space and runs, has natural quickness, and has about 10 years left to go of potential peak development.
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Offline robgomm

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #122 on: February 6, 2014, 02:07:35 am »
That graph is interesting and you can at least see a small drop off into the 27+ range. What explains the figure for 19 year olds? Would there have been a small sample or do some of them come through strong and then drop off second season?

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #123 on: February 6, 2014, 02:18:03 am »
That graph is interesting and you can at least see a small drop off into the 27+ range. What explains the figure for 19 year olds? Would there have been a small sample or do some of them come through strong and then drop off second season?

Less games perhaps? As in the young talented forward breaking into the team with some sub appearances and making an instant impact over a short period of time - much like Januzaj, Owen and Fowler, perhaps
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Offline robgomm

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #124 on: February 6, 2014, 02:59:11 am »
Could be, aye, especially the imapct sub idea.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/feb/05/adam-johnson-sunderland-england-recall-roy-hodgson

^Sterling not mentioned at all here. He's definitely wildly underrated right now for my money.

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #125 on: February 6, 2014, 04:07:57 am »
Less games perhaps? As in the young talented forward breaking into the team with some sub appearances and making an instant impact over a short period of time - much like Januzaj, Owen and Fowler, perhaps
It's only a five year period, so it's possible that it only covers ~5-10 players, and, as you say, perhaps being used as impact subs. 19 year olds playing in the Premier League are also pretty likely to be exceptional talents.  I'd guess it's just noise though.

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #126 on: February 8, 2014, 02:42:15 pm »
Finishing is the most important skill though. Players need end product. Ultimately, that's what they will be judged on.

Was a good day for Sterling there. Arguably our best player in 3 of the last 5 games now. Will start crushing the others on the list at this rate. 19 year old with productivity already. Fucking terrifying thought!
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Offline Notorious IT

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #127 on: February 8, 2014, 02:44:52 pm »
His confidence is (rightfully) sky high just now. He has no fears in taking any player on now. Fantastic to watch.

Once he sorts his final ball he'll be some player.

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #128 on: February 8, 2014, 02:49:31 pm »
His confidence is (rightfully) sky high just now. He has no fears in taking any player on now. Fantastic to watch.

Once he sorts his final ball he'll be some player.

Agreed. Though that is usually the last thing that clicks into place with a young player. The fact at 19 he is already looking a 10 goal & 5 assists a season player (at the current rate) really is terrifying. Teenagers doing this really is a rarity although maybe Fowler and Owen have taken the novelty out of it a little for us.
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Offline Dubit10

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #129 on: February 8, 2014, 04:37:14 pm »
His confidence is (rightfully) sky high just now. He has no fears in taking any player on now. Fantastic to watch.

Once he sorts his final ball he'll be some player.

He's some player now. Frightening how he has progressed this season fair play to him and Rodgers. Our attack at present is just outstanding.
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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #130 on: February 13, 2014, 11:49:30 pm »
Going to be updating this over the weekend as the lack of EPL games will make it easier for me to get the charts done before the data is old.

Before I do though are there any other players I should look at adding. I've got Deulofeu & Berahino. Anybody else. Remember they need to be a teenager as at 1 August 2013 to qualify and have played the majority of their games as a #10/winger/wide forward.

Also would people be interested in a separate article for the Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A? If so I´ll need someone to help throw names my way. I figures we could put the top 2 from each league together at the end of it for a cross-leagues comparison.
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Offline MiserableP15

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #131 on: February 13, 2014, 11:54:58 pm »
Andros Townsend? Or is he too old?

Bentaleb?

Ward Prowse?

Dunno. Just guessing now.
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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #132 on: February 14, 2014, 12:11:15 am »
Suso is the obvious one

Oxlade Chamberlain just qualifies I think as does Nathan Redmond.
Julian Draxler is probably the best player in the age bracket.
Lucas O'Campus I think fits the bill in the french league
Max Meyer and Timo Werner maybe qualify, not sure how much time they've spent on the wing though.
 
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Offline Coolie High

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #133 on: February 14, 2014, 12:19:26 am »
Suso is the obvious one

Oxlade Chamberlain just qualifies I think as does Nathan Redmond.
Julian Draxler is probably the best player in the age bracket.
Lucas O'Campus I think fits the bill in the french league
Max Meyer and Timo Werner maybe qualify, not sure how much time they've spent on the wing though.

I don't think he is.

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #134 on: February 14, 2014, 12:38:36 am »
I don't think he is.

Don't really have an opinion. Maybe he's a bit hyped. He is 6'2, fast, can dribble and scores goals which is a wet dream for scouts I suppose but the 40m price tag or whatever it is you'd think makes him the highest priced player of the lot.

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Offline SwordInYourGut

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #135 on: February 14, 2014, 03:39:59 am »
Don't really have an opinion. Maybe he's a bit hyped. He is 6'2, fast, can dribble and scores goals which is a wet dream for scouts I suppose but the 40m price tag or whatever it is you'd think makes him the highest priced player of the lot.
I watch a lot of bundesliga games and I do think he is that good. 20 yrs old and schalke's best player by a mile. Absolutely devastating on the counter.

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #136 on: February 14, 2014, 03:42:24 am »
Dortmund's Jonas Hoffman has pretty decent statistics across all tournaments this season. Think he just about qualifies for the comparison.

Offline SwordInYourGut

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #137 on: February 14, 2014, 03:46:55 am »
Another one you might wanna look into would be Wolfsburg's Max Arnold

Offline BabuYagu

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #138 on: February 14, 2014, 04:39:46 am »
Andros Townsend? Or is he too old?

Bentaleb?

Ward Prowse?

Dunno. Just guessing now.

Townsend too old. Bentaleb & Barkley I excluded as they are center mids and they would warp the charts. Ward-Prowse is already in the OP but might be removed for the reasons as mentioned with Bentaleg and Barkley. Ward-Prowse played 1/2 the season as one of the forward 4 but is now almost exclusively a DM/CM.

Also Rentaleg has played so little it wouldn't be worth looking at. Fantastic player though.

Thanks for all the other suggestions DanA & SwordInYourGut. Actually having looked them up now, Deulofeu has played just 362 minutes, Oxlade-Chamberlain 273 minutes, Berahino played almost 2/3rds of his time as a center forward. Not sure there would be any benefit to adding any of them to the mix.

For the other leagues the names I can find that are:-
1) 19 or under on 1 August 2013
2) Played at least 400 minutes of league football in the top flight
3) Play as a #10, winger or wide forward.

BUNDESLIGA
Timo Werner;
Max Meyer;
Maximilian Arnold; (unsure but seems to play the vast majority as a #10 although can play as a proper CM at times, correct?)
Hakan Calhanoglu; (as above although also has played a few times as CF. 80% of the time a LW though)
Leonardo Bittencourt;
Julian Draxler;

LA LIGA
Fabrice Olinga;
Moisés Gómez;
Álvaro Vadillo;
Suso

SERIE A
Keita Baldé Diao;
Domenico Berardi; (Tough one, has played most of his time on RW but his time as a striker means his goal stats are crazy good! Will probably warp the charts as his stats look more striker than winger)

LIGUE 1
Lucas Ocampos;
Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco;
Adama Ba;
Adrien Hunou

That seems like everyone. Won't have the time to get all of them done right away but it is a starting point.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2014, 04:41:36 am by BabuYagu »
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Offline artanis

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #139 on: February 14, 2014, 04:44:23 am »
Did anyone mention that Sterling is 11 points ahead of Januzaj?

That's important.

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Re: Sterling & Januzaj - the cold, hard stats
« Reply #140 on: February 14, 2014, 05:01:30 am »
Did anyone mention that Sterling is 11 points ahead of Januzaj?

That's important.

That's unfair. It was nowhere near that bad for United when Januzaj was playing. I can only in good faith blame Januzaj for a 6 point difference. The other 5 points are down to Mata signing and RvP & Rooney being back. They are certainly making a massive difference for United as predicted :D
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EPL Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj) February Update
« Reply #141 on: March 1, 2014, 05:38:09 am »
Sorry for the delay in the update guys. As promised though here is the update for the Premier League teenagers which now includes all games up to 28 February 2014. First of all the stats table:-



As you can see there has been no changes to the players involved. I was intending to use Deulofeu and Berahino. However, Deulofeu has played even less minutes than Gnabry and therefore is too small a sample size to use (Ideally I am going with players only over 500 minutes). Berahino despite playing some time on the flanks has actually played the vast majority of his time as a striker.

Therefore I will focus on the same 5. I will also be adding the La Liga candidates into the mix over the weekend. I aim to have the 5 top leagues (Eng, Fra, Ita, Ger, Spa) represented in here eventually. I will perhaps do a separate table for strikers and another for central midfielders also at a later date to look at how the likes of Barkley & Berahino compare to their European counterparts.

So how is the Sterling v Januzaj battle looking now?



As you can see, Sterling has now moved ahead in every single category. In January Januzaj was ahead in Through Balls per 90 minutes and tied in Productivity (Goals + Assists) per 90 minutes but now Sterling has moved ahead in both those categories also. Some will point out that Sterling has played more than Januzaj and therefore comparison is unfair but everything is measured over 90 minutes played therefore Sterling is matching or bettering Januzaj's average performance levels for the season while Adnan is watching from the Manchester United bench Juan Mata learning how to be a cross loving winger.

Opening this up to the rest of the Premier League again, the Petal chart looks like this:-



What I can tell you is that Sterling is even more dominant now than he was in January. His petal in Jan was the largest by 19%. Now it is the largest by 32%. His dribbling, through balls and productivity have all come on massively this month and he now leads in those 3 categories. This would indicate he is being more adventurous in his approach and this is reflected in his Passing% decreasing and him giving the ball away a little more often.

Januzaj may soon end up the runt of the litter at this rate. He is currently in 4th place still but Redmond is closing the gap fast who, bar Sterling, had the best month from the rest and now there is almost nothing separating Gnabry, Redmond or Januzaj with Ward-Prowse only marginally ahead of that pack also.

Also, if you are David Moyes you could do worse than looking at James Ward Prowse. He averages a whopping 10.29 attempted crosses per 90 minutes played. That number is pretty high even by Devoid Moyes' high standards. That is pretty much double what Januzaj can manage in 90 minutes. If you can get 10 outfield players as productive as Ward-Prowse playing for United you would be looking at 103 crosses per game on average. Then he could be even more unlucky while dominating those score draws.

So how does that compare to the best young La Liga playmakers including our very own Suso? No clue... to be honest.... I need to work that out first. Probably should have done that rather than ask a question that we would all like to know the answer to really :D I'll get back to you on that over the weekend. For now though you can savour the moment someone blurts out the "Januzaj is the best young playmaker in the Premier League" in your presence as Sterling is ahead of him in every metric you would use to measure a playmakers effectiveness.... except "number of crosses per game" of course.  ;)
« Last Edit: March 1, 2014, 05:45:29 am by BabuYagu »
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Offline BabuYagu

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #142 on: March 1, 2014, 05:44:13 am »
28 February 2014 update added to OP. Also changed the thread title as Sterling v Januzaj is no longer worth debating. Plus with Januzaj now taking up residency on United's bench there is far less interest in comparing the two now. As mentioned before a La Liga update will be happening in the coming days also for those who are curious how Suso would compare.
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Offline brownbear11

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #143 on: March 1, 2014, 06:39:53 am »
I know Isco is a weeeee bit older, but can he be added to analysis?

Offline BabuYagu

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #144 on: March 1, 2014, 12:51:40 pm »
I know Isco is a weeeee bit older, but can he be added to analysis?

He could but I am not sure what the point would be to be honest. Would it not be better to have a separate look at the likes of Oscar, Coutinho, Hazard, Isco, Roberto Firmino, Ramsey, Götze etc.

The reason I say that is, developmentally speaking, the difference between a 19 year old playmaker and a 21 year old playmaker is huge. Throwing him into the mix would maybe show where they should aim for the next few years but he is about 21 months older than the cutoff. He would absolutely crush the lot of them, as he should really given the massive amount of experience he has in comparison.

The only way I would entertain adding a "too old" player would be taking the data from the last year they would qualify. In Isco's case that would be his 2011/12 season with Malaga. I still think it would be more interesting though just to take the 20-23 year old group later once I've completed the teenagers group and throw them all together at a later date to see how Coutinho fares out of the next category.
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Offline rickardinho1

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #145 on: March 1, 2014, 12:57:54 pm »
Is it true that Januzaj is on £80k a week? Their salary structure must be completely insane if so

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #146 on: March 1, 2014, 01:10:40 pm »
Is it true that Januzaj is on £80k a week? Their salary structure must be completely insane if so

Different places say different things ranging between £60k to £80k a week. This article explains the difference in figures as being his £5m signing on fee which is paid in £20k weekly installments on top of his £60k a week salary.

And yeah, that is pretty mental. That would probably put him in the top 5 earners here at Liverpool I would imagine. I think the fear of another Pogba happening put his agent in a very strong bargaining position. They absolutely could not let him leave.
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Offline Camarero25

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #147 on: March 1, 2014, 07:32:36 pm »
He is just astonishing.

2nd best winger in the league after Hazard this season. At 19.

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #148 on: March 1, 2014, 07:33:51 pm »
Changed the game really. Our midfield looked heaps better when he came on.

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #149 on: March 1, 2014, 07:34:16 pm »
Masterstroke bringing a kid this good on at that stage. He basically made all the difference, we were on top of the game again pretty much right from his introduction.


Decent first touch of the ball as well.  ;)
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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #150 on: March 1, 2014, 07:34:53 pm »
He is very rapidly turning into a fabulous footballer. Considering where he was against Hull, the turnaround has been unreal. Credit to Raheem, the manager and the coaches that worked with him to improve his game.

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #151 on: March 1, 2014, 07:37:27 pm »
If only Sterling was half as good as Januzaj...
Changed the game really. Our midfield looked heaps better when he came on.
You're right, he changed the game. I don't know if Coutinho was off a bit, but Sterling has amazing energy, pace and strength.
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Offline Redshadow

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Re: Sterling vs Premier Leagues other Teenagers (aka Sterling v Januzaj)
« Reply #152 on: March 1, 2014, 07:37:50 pm »
Wow, playing in the central midfield, helping seize the control back from one of the best passing team in the league. This guy is going to be immense

Oh, and Januzaj? Really? :D
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