Author Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.  (Read 27456 times)

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #680 on: April 16, 2024, 02:09:44 pm »
:o

Five of the Campaign Group's 35 members have lost the Labour whip since Starmer took over (Corbyn, Abbott, McDonald, Webbe and Osamor).  I don't think a single remaining member has a position in the shadow cabinet.  There were rumours recently that even that small group would likely split over different ideologies.  If they're going to take over the Labour party then it will be Rambo style.

I'd love it if there was a strong, coherent voice from the Labour left but there really isn't.
they'll be trying to take over the NEC via elections I imagine
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline filopastry

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #681 on: April 16, 2024, 03:38:55 pm »
they'll be trying to take over the NEC via elections I imagine

Not sure how, unless the union votes are looking extremely favourable for them, movements in membership have not been favourable to the hard left for sure, and they are nowhere near a majority at present
« Last Edit: April 16, 2024, 03:52:56 pm by filopastry »

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #682 on: April 16, 2024, 11:34:52 pm »
Not sure how, unless the union votes are looking extremely favourable for them, movements in membership have not been favourable to the hard left for sure, and they are nowhere near a majority at present
I agree but that's the only way they could possibly look to gain control of the party
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline filopastry

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #683 on: April 17, 2024, 12:15:10 am »
I agree but that's the only way they could possibly look to gain control of the party

Agreed, I imagine a clickbait "scary Labour" story then

Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #684 on: April 17, 2024, 08:32:51 am »
Agreed, I imagine a clickbait "scary Labour" story then

I thought that was obvious.

Even they know Labour are a shoe in for the election now. The Tories have no domestic achievements to campaign on. Highest tax burden since the war; services on their knees; the country literally falling apart. On top of that, the government mired in sleaze, corruption, extremism and incompetence.

They can't campaign on what the Tories have done. All they can do is campaign on what might happen under Labour. It's the ghost of Corbyn basically, trying to spin worst case scenario to frighten voters off. At this point it's like trying to stop a boulder tumbling down a mountainside just by raising your hand.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #685 on: April 17, 2024, 09:07:28 am »
I thought that was obvious.

Even they know Labour are a shoe in for the election now. The Tories have no domestic achievements to campaign on. Highest tax burden since the war; services on their knees; the country literally falling apart. On top of that, the government mired in sleaze, corruption, extremism and incompetence.

They can't campaign on what the Tories have done. All they can do is campaign on what might happen under Labour. It's the ghost of Corbyn basically, trying to spin worst case scenario to frighten voters off. At this point it's like trying to stop a boulder tumbling down a mountainside just by raising your hand.

And boy are they flogging that Rayner story to death for the same reason.

I mean if Greater Manchester Police really are allocating a dozen officers to that investigation I would really question GMP's priorities pretty strongly.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #686 on: April 17, 2024, 09:12:18 am »
And boy are they flogging that Rayner story to death for the same reason.

I mean if Greater Manchester Police really are allocating a dozen officers to that investigation I would really question GMP's priorities pretty strongly.

Manchester has fuck all issues from the looks of it. Police on this case, Burnham spending time trying to argue against Everton’s points deduction. Must be great up there.

Offline Wabaloolah

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #687 on: April 17, 2024, 11:53:13 pm »
And boy are they flogging that Rayner story to death for the same reason.

I mean if Greater Manchester Police really are allocating a dozen officers to that investigation I would really question GMP's priorities pretty strongly.
yep and the polls still aren't shifting, in fact most of them have shifted further away from the Tories.

It's desperation stuff.


I'm not Angela Rayner's biggest fan but she's a saint compared to what some of the Tories have done
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline oldfordie

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #688 on: April 18, 2024, 12:06:23 am »
I thought that was obvious.

Even they know Labour are a shoe in for the election now. The Tories have no domestic achievements to campaign on. Highest tax burden since the war; services on their knees; the country literally falling apart. On top of that, the government mired in sleaze, corruption, extremism and incompetence.

They can't campaign on what the Tories have done. All they can do is campaign on what might happen under Labour. It's the ghost of Corbyn basically, trying to spin worst case scenario to frighten voters off. At this point it's like trying to stop a boulder tumbling down a mountainside just by raising your hand.
I always think if I was a Tory I would be cringing when Sunak says this. how Labour will crash the economy and bring inflation,  I would be saying just keep your gob shut you soft bas,, you're making things worse, it's as if he thinks the public will forget what's happened since Truss disastrous budget but this is all the Torys know when it comes to elections, scare the public into not voting Labour. it's worked for decades but not anymore, the clueless lunatics went too far this time.
It's not as if Starmers not aware of this, he's refused to make promises on spending we can't fund which make Sunak scare warnings look even more pathetic.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #689 on: April 18, 2024, 06:54:56 am »
I always think if I was a Tory I would be cringing when Sunak says this. how Labour will crash the economy and bring inflation,  I would be saying just keep your gob shut you soft bas,, you're making things worse, it's as if he thinks the public will forget what's happened since Truss disastrous budget but this is all the Torys know when it comes to elections, scare the public into not voting Labour. it's worked for decades but not anymore, the clueless lunatics went too far this time.
It's not as if Starmers not aware of this, he's refused to make promises on spending we can't fund which make Sunak scare warnings look even more pathetic.

Except we can see inflation being around 3% or less, when the election is held. The electorate could easily be spooked into thinking Labour will get us back to those +10% figures again.
Wouldn't surprise me if BoE are leant on to hold interest rates high longer than necessary, so people see the "benefit" of rates coming down close to the election.
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Offline PatriotScouser

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #690 on: April 18, 2024, 09:40:33 am »
You can look at it both ways one being as you said but the other is with a sound economy that is slowly turning around, voters will feel more at ease with giving another Party a chance to govern with a stabilised Govt. Echoes of 97.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #691 on: April 18, 2024, 10:07:47 am »
Except we can see inflation being around 3% or less, when the election is held. The electorate could easily be spooked into thinking Labour will get us back to those +10% figures again.
Wouldn't surprise me if BoE are leant on to hold interest rates high longer than necessary, so people see the "benefit" of rates coming down close to the election.

I don’t think that benefits the Tories, if anything they have been pushing for rate cuts sooner rather then later, the later the rates are cut the less difference it will make to people, the BoE will cut it at 0.25% at a time I suspect which in isolation makes very little difference to anyone if they only get one in before the election, get say three cuts of 0.25 in before the election and people will notice the impact of that.
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #692 on: April 18, 2024, 10:09:40 am »
I don’t think that benefits the Tories, if anything they have been pushing for rate cuts sooner rather then later, the later the rates are cut the less difference it will make to people, the BoE will cut it at 0.25% at a time I suspect which in isolation makes very little difference to anyone if they only get one in before the election, get say three cuts of 0.25 in before the election and people will notice the impact of that.

It wont really. Most people have fixed deals and so if they have had to fix already then its baked in. Those coming off fixed deals will see their mortgage payments rise no matter the cuts.

Its all minor stuff really. Interest rate cuts wont help the Tories, they are toast.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #693 on: April 18, 2024, 10:21:06 am »
Except we can see inflation being around 3% or less, when the election is held. The electorate could easily be spooked into thinking Labour will get us back to those +10% figures again.
Wouldn't surprise me if BoE are leant on to hold interest rates high longer than necessary, so people see the "benefit" of rates coming down close to the election.
Starmers well aware of what the Torys will say if he trys to promise unfunded policys. inflation may have dropped but all that means is prices aren't going up as fast, it doesn't mean prices are dropping.
I remember the lead up to the 92 election. everyone has there own opinion on why Labour lost. I put it down to the Torys scare campaign 2 weeks before the election. how Labour will bring high inflation, high interest rates, people will loose their homes. I had a big argument with a lad who had not long bought his house under the right to buy, he fell for it hook line and sinker. this was 2 weeks before the election in a completely different political climate. the Torys were hated but they still had the respect and support of the public. the Torys today are trying this 6 months before a election, that's a mistake, Labour have months to show how pathetic this attack is, how can someone whose trashed the economy, brought high inflation and high interest rates due to unfunded policys scare millions into not voting Labour for this reason, Sunak looks more pathetic every time he says this. can you imagine how the average voter reacts when he says this, ? I can see millions saying ohh f.. off you idiot, your lot crashed the economy etc etc,
they have no credibility to make these attacks, they haven't got the respect of the country to make people take them seriously and the timings awful, Labour have months to discredit them.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2024, 10:27:24 am by oldfordie »
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #694 on: April 18, 2024, 10:33:40 am »
It wont really. Most people have fixed deals and so if they have had to fix already then its baked in. Those coming off fixed deals will see their mortgage payments rise no matter the cuts.

Its all minor stuff really. Interest rate cuts wont help the Tories, they are toast.

Depends on when they fixed and for how long, plenty of people moved homes during Covid for example or remortgaged when rates were really low and if they fixed for 5 years they are still to feel the pain of the rate rises.

But yes, ultimately it will make little difference to the election result, no one’s listening to the Tories anymore.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #695 on: April 18, 2024, 11:15:08 am »
Yeah I'm just about to remortgage and I#m looking at going from 2.5% to 4.5%. A small BoE rate cut isn't going to do much to that. And I'm fortunate enough to be getting into a low LTV bracket so getting amongst the best deals on the market.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #696 on: April 18, 2024, 02:52:06 pm »
Yeah I'm just about to remortgage and I#m looking at going from 2.5% to 4.5%. A small BoE rate cut isn't going to do much to that. And I'm fortunate enough to be getting into a low LTV bracket so getting amongst the best deals on the market.

The issue is the BoE always just seems reluctant to do anything, they always found a reason not to increase them in between the crash and the pandemic, were reluctant to increase them after the pandemic and I can now see them now looking for reasons not to cut them and being slow to do so.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #697 on: April 18, 2024, 04:30:17 pm »




Why is Andre Villa Boas ordering a fried egg off Sunak.

And why is there a severed hand or Thing from The Addams Family lying there?

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #698 on: April 19, 2024, 11:32:53 am »
I thought it was Lallana.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #699 on: April 24, 2024, 12:32:36 pm »
Nigel Frottage can host GB News show during election, says Ofcom

Media regulator says no clear consensus among British public to ban politicians presenting on news channels


Quote
Nigel Frottage will be allowed to present his nightly GB News programme throughout the general election campaign, Ofcom has confirmed, after the media regulator said there was no clear consensus among the British public to stop politicians presenting shows on news channels.

The founder of the Reform UK party, which has the backing of 10% of voters in opinion polls, will be allowed to keep broadcasting until polling day providing he does not stand as a parliamentary candidate.

Cristina Nicolotti Squires, the Ofcom executive responsible for broadcast regulation, said: “If [GB News] want to take that risk, that decision, to put a politician like Frottage presenting a programme during a general election campaign the bar is going to have to be really hard in terms of due impartiality. Then we’ll have to decide whether the programme has been duly impartial. And we’ll act really swiftly.”

She was speaking as Ofcom confirmed GB News and other channels can continue to pay serving MPs such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Lee Anderson to work as presenters. The regulator concluded that the British public was “instinctively uncomfortable” with politicians hosting current affairs programmes but there was “no clear consensus for an outright ban”.

Instead, the media regulator will explicitly require that GB News ensures serving politicians do not adopt the style and mannerisms of an unbiased newsreader, interviewer, or reporter – such as reading out a list of headlines directly to the audience. Serving MPs will still have to be taken off air during the general election campaign.

The regulator has faced growing criticism over how it applies its rules to GB News and whether the channel is being treated more leniently than traditional broadcasters.

Andrew Neil, who helped found GB News before quitting shortly after its launch, told the House of Lords on Tuesday he was amazed politicians sitting in the Houses of Parliament could present political TV programmes. He said: “I just find that incredible and I think on these areas Ofcom needs to find a backbone and quick.”

Last month, GB News was found to have repeatedly breached impartiality rules by paying Conservative MPs hundreds of thousands of pounds to serve as news presenters and interview the prime minister, Rishi Sunak. Rather than impose sanctions on GB News, the regulator instead put the channel “on notice” and warned it against further breaches. GB News has broken broadcasting rules on 12 occasions in the past 18 months, with a further eight investigations in progress.

When Ofcom last ruled against GB News, the broadcaster called it a “chilling development for all broadcasters”, but Nicolotti Squires said the channel was engaging with the process. She said: “They’ve put in place robust procedures on compliance, they know that we come down on them when they break the rules, and they don’t want to break the rules any more.”

British broadcasting rules heavily restrict politicians’ ability to present news programming but allow serving MPs to host current affairs output.

As a result, Rees-Mogg cannot present a news bulletin on GB News but he can host a current affairs discussion about the same stories immediately afterwards. The problem is there is no clear legal definition of what counts as “news” and “current affairs”.

Ofcom’s research, published on Wednesday, found audiences also struggle to draw the line. Viewers often rely on visual cues – such as whether a presenter is sitting behind a desk or on a sofa – to work out if they are watching highly regulated news programming, or less highly regulated current affairs discussions.

The public “felt personally well equipped to identify if a presenter might be trying to mislead them”, according to a focus group conducted by researchers at Ipsos. Some people suggested a cigarette-style health warning remained on screen whenever a politician was presenting.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/apr/24/gb-news-can-still-use-politicians-as-presenters-ofcom

Offline thaddeus

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #700 on: April 24, 2024, 01:25:28 pm »
Nigel Frottage can host GB News show during election, says Ofcom

Media regulator says no clear consensus among British public to ban politicians presenting on news channels


https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/apr/24/gb-news-can-still-use-politicians-as-presenters-ofcom
I'm not sure who is more gullible, Nicolotti Squires thinking GB News "don’t want to break the rules any more" or the Great British public thinking they know when a presenter is trying to mislead them.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #701 on: April 24, 2024, 04:40:00 pm »
Nigel Frottage can host GB News show during election, says Ofcom

Media regulator says no clear consensus among British public to ban politicians presenting on news channels


https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/apr/24/gb-news-can-still-use-politicians-as-presenters-ofcom
Andrew Neil is a lot of things, but he ain't stupid. Even he is aghast at his former employer, GB News, having politicians on as presenters.

Fucking hell, even the name of the station is 'GB News' and Ofcom are equivocating over whether or not the content is 'news' or 'current affairs'. GB News pitches itself as a news channel - this should be the end of the discussion.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #702 on: April 24, 2024, 04:54:15 pm »
Andrew Neil is a lot of things, but he ain't stupid. Even he is aghast at his former employer, GB News, having politicians on as presenters.

Fucking hell, even the name of the station is 'GB News' and Ofcom are equivocating over whether or not the content is 'news' or 'current affairs'. GB News pitches itself as a news channel - this should be the end of the discussion.
Every one told him this would happen. In return he abused them on twitter.
It was the most obvious thing ever.
Somehow he didn’t spot it
How odd
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #703 on: April 24, 2024, 06:34:21 pm »
Every one told him this would happen. In return he abused them on twitter.
It was the most obvious thing ever.
Somehow he didn’t spot it
How odd
Well, he was duped, I guess. Gullible doesn't mean he is stupid of course. I expect he's embarrassed by it all - as he should be. Is he presenting these days?
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #704 on: April 24, 2024, 07:28:34 pm »
Andrew Neil is a lot of things, but he ain't stupid. Even he is aghast at his former employer, GB News, having politicians on as presenters.

Fucking hell, even the name of the station is 'GB News' and Ofcom are equivocating over whether or not the content is 'news' or 'current affairs'. GB News pitches itself as a news channel - this should be the end of the discussion.
Um. What is the difference between news and current affairs? Asking for a friend 😁
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #705 on: April 24, 2024, 07:34:18 pm »
Um. What is the difference between news and current affairs? Asking for a friend 😁

I think it's code for "opinion piece" - how Fox in the US successfully avoided being sued time after time when Carlson, O'Reilly and Hannity constantly spout their shit during prime time.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #706 on: April 24, 2024, 07:38:45 pm »
Fortunately, pretty much nobody watches GB News or Talk TV but it's pretty shocking that MPs from whatever party are allowed to host TV news shows at any time, let alone during a GE campaign!
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #707 on: April 24, 2024, 08:48:48 pm »
Um. What is the difference between news and current affairs? Asking for a friend 😁
There is no definitive line of course. 'Current affairs' necessarily involves news, and when 'news' usilises recordings or interviewees or a panel, what's difference between that and any programme which labels itself as 'current affairs'? Irrespective, the channel is called 'GB News' - ergo, it's fucking news channel.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #708 on: April 25, 2024, 07:25:04 am »
When I started this thread, I remarked that I hoped we could have some policy discussion once parties laid their cards on the table. I also said I was hoping for rail renationalisation. Now it seems Labour have committed to that, as most franchises are due to expire inside the next five years.

It will be interesting to see how the Tories counter this proposal. No doubt they will first try to say privatisation has brought enormous benefit to British people. Once that gets laughed out of court, they will likely switch track and claim Labour is just copying their own proposals, which are more a natural evolution of privatisation based on the lessons learned, rather than actual nationalisation.

Should make for an intriguing back and forth.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #709 on: April 25, 2024, 10:52:11 am »
When I started this thread, I remarked that I hoped we could have some policy discussion once parties laid their cards on the table. I also said I was hoping for rail renationalisation. Now it seems Labour have committed to that, as most franchises are due to expire inside the next five years.

It will be interesting to see how the Tories counter this proposal. No doubt they will first try to say privatisation has brought enormous benefit to British people. Once that gets laughed out of court, they will likely switch track and claim Labour is just copying their own proposals, which are more a natural evolution of privatisation based on the lessons learned, rather than actual nationalisation.

Should make for an intriguing back and forth.

Either that or we'll see all the train carriers be rewarded with extended contracts that take them into the 2030s

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #710 on: April 25, 2024, 01:21:52 pm »
Either that or we'll see all the train carriers be rewarded with extended contracts that take them into the 2030s
they'll end up collapsing in any case, look at how many are back under public control at the moment
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #711 on: April 25, 2024, 01:58:51 pm »
they'll end up collapsing in any case, look at how many are back under public control at the moment

Six, at the last count. All of the others expire inside the next five years - unless the government can find a reason to seize control ahead of time.

That might actually happen if the companies have decided they've made their money and just allow services to go to pot rather than spending any more money on them.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #712 on: April 25, 2024, 02:20:39 pm »
I presume they got hefty covid bailouts? And probably still significant drops in passenger numbers thanks to remote working.
Would be interesting to see what comparable costs per passe get are in similar countries with better services.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #713 on: April 25, 2024, 02:41:01 pm »
I presume they got hefty covid bailouts? And probably still significant drops in passenger numbers thanks to remote working.
Would be interesting to see what comparable costs per passe get are in similar countries with better services.
I read an article which suggested that the old British Rail actually delivered very good value for money. The main problem with it was that enough money wasn't being spent to take it up to the levels we see on the European mainland. I was a regular rail user at the time of privatisation and the service got worse very quickly as soon as it was out of public hands. Ticket prices rose significantly, the number of carriages on already busy time slots was reduced and the number of times that the train was cancelled went from nothing to a regular occurrence. It became so bad that I had to abandon the car and drive  :( Just getting a reliable service again would be a massive improvement.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #714 on: April 25, 2024, 04:02:00 pm »
I presume they got hefty covid bailouts? And probably still significant drops in passenger numbers thanks to remote working.
Would be interesting to see what comparable costs per passe get are in similar countries with better services.

Yeah, all of the rail operators (public and private) received huge bailouts during Covid, I think TfL received something like £5-7 billion alone, the industry total was about £15 billion I think.

I don’t know about the other operators, but TfL services are running at about 80% of pre-pandemic levels across the Underground and Buses, and continue to slowly grow although I don’t think they will ever reach those level from before the pandemic.
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Re: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.
« Reply #716 on: April 25, 2024, 10:16:25 pm »
I don't think we will see much change in the polls this month compared to last month. But if the local election results are as bad as are being predicted, we can probably expect to see the Tories resume their freefall in May.
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Re: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.
« Reply #717 on: April 25, 2024, 10:38:37 pm »
Looks like there's a new 15000 poll out today from Survation that gives Labour a 21 point lead
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Re: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.
« Reply #718 on: April 26, 2024, 07:10:48 am »
Just for info: Im a presiding officer at a polling station and theres a new rule from these upcoming local elections, if you now hand in a postal vote at a polling station you will have to fill in a form ( i know you are meant to 'Post' them but loads bring them in on the day!) also you can only hand in up to 6 postal votes and only if one of them is your own, if you bring in more than that ( we get a few workers from care homes etc handing in bulk) you will be sent out of the building to choose 5 and your own then can come back in hand them over and fill your form in. seems a bit of a phaff but looks like they are pushing to end handing in postal votes on the day.

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Re: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.
« Reply #719 on: April 26, 2024, 07:38:12 am »
Interesting stuff. I'd never heard anyone talking about postal voting fraud being a concern before in the UK but it clearly became big news in the US in 2020, and a few weeks back I caught some right-winger complaining about them. Don't think they were specific on air, but in "certain migrant communities", people were supposedly not only voting in their own name but also the names of their cousins, parents and grandparents, who were "still on the register but might spend most of their time back home".

I wonder who she meant.
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