Author Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.  (Read 26424 times)

Offline Nobby Reserve

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #80 on: December 11, 2023, 01:24:53 pm »
“There are real differences in who gets their way in our democracy. Policy is more responsive to preferences of the well-heeled than of the worse off, and people know this – but it seems to be a blind spot for most politicians,” he said.


This is spot on.

From all parties.

A Tory, a worker and an immigrant are sat round a table. There's a plate of 10 biscuits in the middle. The Tory takes 9 then turns to the worker and says "that immigrant is trying to steal your biscuit"

Offline Sudden Death Draft Loser

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #81 on: December 11, 2023, 01:48:18 pm »
“There are real differences in who gets their way in our democracy. Policy is more responsive to preferences of the well-heeled than of the worse off, and people know this – but it seems to be a blind spot for most politicians,” he said.


This is spot on.

From all parties.

It's way past time that all parties started making policies for the good of the country, as opposed to policies that will get them elected.
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #82 on: December 11, 2023, 04:08:36 pm »
It's way past time that all parties started making policies for the good of the country, as opposed to policies that will get them elected.

The problem is that too many people wouldn't know a policy that is good for the country if it chucked a bucket of ice water over them. Being told what's best for them without bothering to think for themselves.
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Offline Sudden Death Draft Loser

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #83 on: December 11, 2023, 04:10:25 pm »
The problem is that too many people wouldn't know a policy that is good for the country if it chucked a bucket of ice water over them. Being told what's best for them without bothering to think for themselves.

Sadly correct

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Offline oldfordie

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #84 on: December 11, 2023, 04:55:10 pm »
It's way past time that all parties started making policies for the good of the country, as opposed to policies that will get them elected.
It's politics, I wish we lived in a Country where everyone could see through the bullshit, everyone could form their own informed opinions to judge policy's and politicians but it's not the way things are.
EG, One of the latest arguments is most people have no problem paying more taxes if those taxes are used to improve Services etc. am sure many people will say this when asked as well but those same people will start getting pissed off with Labour etc when the Tory's say Labour have brought in high taxes to look after the unemployed, higher taxes to look after the scroungers who refuse to work while decent people like yourselves who work their arses off struggle to get by. result is those voters will get angry and vote Tory. the connection to those taxes being used to improve services is forgotten.
It's the purity argument over how Labour should be honest and tell voters what policy's they intend to bring in. spell out every policy in detail. it's naïve and counter productive. if voters judged them fairly and give them credit because they understood the policy's intention to make a better country then we would all be far better off but that's not realty. the Tory party +right wing media will convince people those Labour policy's make things worse.
The really annoying thing is the Tory policy's do make things worse and many get angry but they get more angry when the Tory's wind them up on other issues.
Happens every election and the Tory's are desperately trying to make it happen at the next election, forget their record, Labour don't want to stop the boats, Labour want to look after the illegal immigrants. this is the first time in decades when voters see through it hopefully.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2023, 04:58:51 pm by oldfordie »
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Offline west_london_red

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #85 on: December 11, 2023, 05:57:06 pm »
It would help if people could actually be bothered to get off their asses and vote.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #86 on: December 16, 2023, 03:27:08 pm »
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/8sRoYvFTE3c" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/8sRoYvFTE3c</a>
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #87 on: December 16, 2023, 09:01:04 pm »
It would help if people could actually be bothered to get off their asses and vote.

Depends if your vote even counts. under the anachronistic FPTP. If you're in one of the safe seats it doesn't, although most of the Tory seats are genuinely up for grabs for once if Lab/Lib can come to a pact.

If you live in Liverpool for example then Labour will win the seats at a canter whether you vote or not.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #88 on: December 16, 2023, 09:02:01 pm »
Just get on with it and let’s have people who give a shot for a change.

They ran out of ideas years ago.  And they were shit.

Spring election, get rid and start again.
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Offline kavah

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #89 on: December 17, 2023, 10:27:32 pm »
There must be a chance of a Lib Lab coalition if the blue wall goes liberal? 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/17/britains-blue-wall-crumbling-tories-failing-voters




Offline west_london_red

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #90 on: December 18, 2023, 01:47:15 am »
Depends if your vote even counts. under the anachronistic FPTP. If you're in one of the safe seats it doesn't, although most of the Tory seats are genuinely up for grabs for once if Lab/Lib can come to a pact.

If you live in Liverpool for example then Labour will win the seats at a canter whether you vote or not.

You say that but how many seats did UKIP or the Brexit Party or Reform win? Fuck all, yet they have set the agenda for politics in this country for the last 10 years.
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Offline west_london_red

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #91 on: December 18, 2023, 01:52:59 am »
There must be a chance of a Lib Lab coalition if the blue wall goes liberal? 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/17/britains-blue-wall-crumbling-tories-failing-voters





As a last resort it’s a possibility, but so far all indications are a Labour landslide in which case why would/should Labour bother?
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #92 on: December 18, 2023, 12:09:35 pm »
You say that but how many seats did UKIP or the Brexit Party or Reform win? Fuck all, yet they have set the agenda for politics in this country for the last 10 years.

Agreed. UKIP and it's later iterations have successfully leapfrogged the Greens and Lib Dems when it comes to poll numbers, but due to the voting system don't have a single MP. Their influence stems from their ability to cleave support from the Tories that can cost them so many seats.

I'm reminded of when the Liberal-SDP Alliance contributed to the 1983 debacle.
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Offline kavah

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #93 on: December 19, 2023, 01:01:32 am »
As a last resort it’s a possibility, but so far all indications are a Labour landslide in which case why would/should Labour bother?

Oh aye, just leaning to the pessimistic side.

Offline Statto Red

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #94 on: December 19, 2023, 05:39:13 am »
As a last resort it’s a possibility, but so far all indications are a Labour landslide in which case why would/should Labour bother?

Yeah, i don't think it'll be a hung Parliament after the next election, Lib Dems need to win at least 30 plus seats, if Labour fail to reach the winning point, , the Lib Dems might win some blue wall seats but i don't think the voters have forgiven the Lib Dems for turning trator & going into bed with the Tory's that enabled austerity post 2010.
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Offline Dr. Beaker

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #95 on: December 19, 2023, 10:44:09 am »
As a last resort it’s a possibility, but so far all indications are a Labour landslide in which case why would/should Labour bother?
I would like Labour to really push for total annihilation of the tories.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #96 on: December 19, 2023, 11:02:10 am »
I would like Labour to really push for total annihilation of the tories.

Total annihilation of the Tories will only come from a two pronged attack - it's essential that the Lib Dems make big gains in the south, suburbs, blue wall seats to 1) give the Tories that deserved pasting and 2) highlight the futility of them going to the extremes (not that they will learn that, yet).

Labour will almost certainly get a comfortable majority but I think a big Lib Dem presence will be beneficial to hurt the Tories more and to put pressure on the Labour government from the progressive side (on Europe, immigration, prisons etc).

Offline Dr. Beaker

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #97 on: December 19, 2023, 11:15:07 am »
Total annihilation of the Tories will only come from a two pronged attack - it's essential that the Lib Dems make big gains in the south, suburbs, blue wall seats to 1) give the Tories that deserved pasting and 2) highlight the futility of them going to the extremes (not that they will learn that, yet).

Labour will almost certainly get a comfortable majority but I think a big Lib Dem presence will be beneficial to hurt the Tories more and to put pressure on the Labour government from the progressive side (on Europe, immigration, prisons etc).
Hopefully they can work something out between them. Opportunities like this are few and far between.
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Offline west_london_red

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #98 on: December 19, 2023, 12:07:35 pm »
I would like Labour to really push for total annihilation of the tories.

Likewise and Libertine raises a good point, the Tories need to be hit from all angles in all seats including those where Labour don’t stand a realistic chance of winning we need the Lib Dem’s to take seats, I’ve never had much time for the Lib Dem’s and never will but always better a Lib Dem then a Tory.
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #99 on: December 19, 2023, 12:12:19 pm »
Labour and the Lib Dems both need to swallow their pride and put self interest aside. It's bad for democracy for voters to be denied choice; but equally vote splitting between Labour and the Lib Dems only helps the Tories.

What's needed is splitting the Tory vote. Whilst tactical voting will help in many areas, getting Tories to switch to a different party can still help Labour. What needs to happen in this election is for the Tories to be squeezed between Reform and the Lib Dems, so that they each pick off the extremes and moderates on both ends of the scale. That can let Labour in through the back door in quite a few seats I reckon, nabbing more seats than tactical voting alone.

Most election predictors put a Labour majority at anything from 50 to 120 seats. Ideally, we need to see the Tories below 120 seats, even 95 to 100 seats. If voters see that kind of collapse, it could trigger a domino effect that permanently cripples them, as with the Liberals a century odd ago.

I visit this site a lot. I think it's overly optimistic in its predictions, but that just cheers me up. ;D

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
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Offline ToneLa

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #100 on: December 19, 2023, 01:58:33 pm »
Politico's polls


Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #101 on: February 13, 2024, 03:50:33 pm »
Bumping with a link to Electoral Calculus, in case it gets lost in the other political party threads.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Two more by elections coming up. Looks like Labour have fucked Rochdale up terribly but it should only be a temporary setback. But they really need to improve their vetting of candidates in the run up to the election. Labour can't get away with 1% of what the Tories do, because everybody expects the Tories to be bastards and hold Labour to an unreasonably high standard. That means every gaffe and setback is exploded into a crisis.

Always to me it seems people focus on what Tories are doing and what Labour aren't doing. It's right to hold everyone up to equal scrutiny, but some of the recent takes on Labour in general and Starmer in particular are very worrying for me.

Doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is as bad as doing the wrong thing for the right reasons. This anti-Tory coalition that's been stitched together is a good start, but there needs to be more tolerance, compromise and acceptance on the left if there is to be long term success at destroying the Tories permanently.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #102 on: February 13, 2024, 04:16:24 pm »
Bumping with a link to Electoral Calculus, in case it gets lost in the other political party threads.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Two more by elections coming up. Looks like Labour have fucked Rochdale up terribly but it should only be a temporary setback. But they really need to improve their vetting of candidates in the run up to the election. Labour can't get away with 1% of what the Tories do, because everybody expects the Tories to be bastards and hold Labour to an unreasonably high standard. That means every gaffe and setback is exploded into a crisis.

Always to me it seems people focus on what Tories are doing and what Labour aren't doing. It's right to hold everyone up to equal scrutiny, but some of the recent takes on Labour in general and Starmer in particular are very worrying for me.

Doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is as bad as doing the wrong thing for the right reasons. This anti-Tory coalition that's been stitched together is a good start, but there needs to be more tolerance, compromise and acceptance on the left if there is to be long term success at destroying the Tories permanently.

Very similar points can be made about Democrats and Republicans stateside, being held to an unreasonably high standard, both by the opposing party and by wings within the broad party, is the biggest challenge the Democrats face stateside...
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Offline Nobby Reserve

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #103 on: February 13, 2024, 04:26:43 pm »
It would help if people could actually be bothered to get off their asses and vote.


Well FPTP doesn't exactly help with that.

I've voted in every GE I've been old enough to (I'm now 52) and in every single one, the result in my constituency was a foregone conclusion.

The closest either of the two St Helens constituencies have been (post-'83 when the left-of-centre vote was split by the SDP, and even then the Labour candidates got over 46% in each) was St Helens South in 2001, after defecting Tory Shaun Woodward was parachuted in. There was a big and loud anti-Woodward movement... which inevitably fragmented into four anti-Woodward candidates, including both The People's Front of Sintellins and the Sintellins People's Front Socialist Labour and Socialist Alliance. And Woodward got in easily with 49.7%.

I've been in both St Helens South and St Helens North constituencies (since we moved to this house 20 years ago, we've been in both as the boundary changed) and always felt free to just vote with my conscience.

But I know a lot of other people - left and right - in this town who don't bother voting because 'there's no point'. I expect that is replicated across hundreds of safe seats.

A form of PR would at least give people some reason to vote regardless of constituency.
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Offline Bobsackamano

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #104 on: February 13, 2024, 04:33:24 pm »
As ever with political threads I think people who are interested in politics over estimate how much these factional squabbles mean. Most people out there won't know and won't care about Labours fuck up in Rochdale. Most people won't have a clue there's even a bye election on.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #105 on: February 13, 2024, 08:25:03 pm »
Given the caliber of the front runners in the Rochdale by-election, who should the voters go for instead?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/13/sex-rochdale-azhar-ali-george-galloway-simon-danczuk

It seems that Green is not an option either.
Quote
Guy Otten – Green party

A retired solicitor and tribunal judge, Otten is the Green party candidate on paper only, after the party withdrew its support for him last week only days after he became candidate.

This was reportedly in response to some remarks he had made on social media, criticising the Gaza conflict and “Islamic religion”.

Otten said he would “leave the stage” after his party withdrew support, and has not taken part in any campaigning, hustings or media interviews since.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/13/who-are-the-rochdale-byelection-candidates-and-what-do-they-stand-for
It looks like this guy might be the best pick of the pack. And he looks like a winner:

https://www.loonyparty.com/5017/8563/rochdale-by-election/

His idea for the introduction of a new coin is interesting. Ravin Rodent Subortna, the sensible choice!?
« Last Edit: February 13, 2024, 08:51:29 pm by Jiminy Cricket »
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #106 on: February 13, 2024, 08:47:00 pm »
When the loony party is the best option, you know you fucked up.

What's Lord Buckethead up to these days?
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Offline TSC

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #107 on: February 13, 2024, 10:32:15 pm »

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #108 on: February 13, 2024, 10:34:49 pm »
Side note: Electoral Calculus have the Greens edging Bristol Central.  Can't see it myself but it'll be an interesting one-off battleground.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #109 on: February 13, 2024, 10:48:02 pm »
I'll definitely be voting Green in the next GE.

The party with policies closest to mine.
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #110 on: February 13, 2024, 10:54:11 pm »
Mind the gap

https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/

Quote
This [Labour] lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022.

Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss.  In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%.

That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget and prior to Liz Truss’ resignation.

As the above graph shows, the damage done to the Conservative numbers by Liz Truss in September 2022, appears far more significant, and indeed long lasting, than the impact of partygate in the first half of 2022.

The impact of Liz Truss’ mini budget on underlying Conservative polling now resembles something of a ‘landmark moment’ , one comparable with Britain’s departure from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) under the Major government.

Sounds about right. Between Bozo's sleaze and Truss's incompetence, the Tories were well and truly fucked. But it's somewhat depressing that this is what it took to wake the electorate up.
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Offline Sangria

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #111 on: February 13, 2024, 11:48:55 pm »
I'll definitely be voting Green in the next GE.

The party with policies closest to mine.

Lib Dem. No idea what their policies will be. But they're the ones with the greatest chance of unseating the local Tory.
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Online Hedley Lamarr

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #112 on: February 14, 2024, 10:00:47 am »
Side note: Electoral Calculus have the Greens edging Bristol Central.  Can't see it myself but it'll be an interesting one-off battleground.

The Greens are the already the largest group on Bristol City Council.

Offline TepidT2O

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #113 on: February 14, 2024, 10:00:52 am »
I will use the vote switch website (whatever it’s called).  We have an incredibly safe Tory seat, but a boundary change will affect voting. I will vote for the best chance of getting the Tory out
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Online Elmo!

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #114 on: February 14, 2024, 10:53:14 am »
I'm really not sure how I vote. My seat was Labour for years, went SNP in 2015, Tory in 2017 and back to SNP in 2019. My MP is now Stephen Flynn who I quite like, but really not that happy with the SNP for lots of reasons. On the other hand, if Labour are clearly going to win a huge majority, I'd quite like there to be some opposition to them that isn't the Tories to hold them to account. Even though they held the seat from 2017-19 I don't think the Tories have any chance of winning it again, Labour are more likely to take it from the SNP.

If the Greens put up a candidate in my seat I might vote for them.

If it was a Holyrood election coming up and not Westminster, I think I would give my consituency vote to Labour, though not with much enthusiasm.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #115 on: February 14, 2024, 12:31:48 pm »
Wimbledon, my constituency, is difficult to call this time. Our sitting MP is, predictably, a tory - 'Bombhead' Hammond. Not so long ago we had a Labour MP! However we have now accreted a LibDem lump of Kingston. Bombhead must be delighted.
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Online Libertine

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #116 on: February 14, 2024, 02:56:32 pm »
Given the caliber of the front runners in the Rochdale by-election, who should the voters go for instead?

Lib Dem is the obvious choice. They won the constituency in 2005.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #117 on: February 14, 2024, 03:40:18 pm »
Lib Dem is the obvious choice. They won the constituency in 2005.
Not sure about that. I see that there were two 'LibDem' candidates in 2019, and they gained a total of 6% of the votes votes between them.

https://democracy.rochdale.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=36&RPID=30139202

Labour might instruct their voters to coalesce around someone else, else it definitely will be someone very unpalatable who wins. But I expect Labour will just sit it out and let the chips fall where they may. Ali winning might not be the worst outcome for them. Galloway would be the worst.
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Offline CornerFlag

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #118 on: February 14, 2024, 04:03:13 pm »
Christ, I can see from at a few betting sites that they have the ultimate unflushable turd in George Galloway as the new favourite to get Rochdale.
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Offline Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #119 on: February 15, 2024, 10:31:13 am »
Reposting directly from the Electoral Calculus site, so it doesn't get lost in the Labour thread:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240215.html


Tories facing electoral decimation. And yes I know that's not technically the correct use of the word "decimate". ;D

EDIT: I found this paragraph in the report telling:

Quote
Our figures indicate a substantial Labour landslide, with Keir Starmer gaining a majority of over 250 seats at Westminster. The Conservatives would have fewer than 100 seats. They would be the official opposition, but they would have less than half of the opposition MPs (80 out of 198).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2024, 10:38:05 am by Red Beret »
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