Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[jillc]

I have to agree here. We can blame the USA. Either Biden for not giving enough, or Trump for being about to pull the plug and cozying up to Putin.

But this is a war being fought in Europe, for the future of European security. Europe has utterly failed to rally and commit to it's own defence. We have had almost three years to wake up to the gravity of the situation (or almost 11 years if you want to factor in the initial invasion and annexation of Ukraine). Even worse, we have some European leaders openly courting Putin.

The USA is under little-to-no direct military security threat. It is Europe that is going to pay the price sooner or later.

Of course the US is under threat, it has to import stuff to survive how can you possibly believe Putin driving further into Europe isn't some sort of threat to them? This idea that it doesn't affect them is dangerous nonsense that Trump would love to read.

I don't disagree that Europe has to do more for itself, I've said the same myself on here. But let's stop thinking that the US has no responsibilities, if we want a free world to continue, we all have to stand up to Putin.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Of course the US is under threat, it has to import stuff to survive how can you possibly believe Putin driving further into Europe isn't some sort of threat to them? This idea that it doesn't affect them is dangerous nonsense that Trump would love to read.

I don't disagree that Europe has to do more for itself, I've said the same myself on here. But let's stop thinking that the US has no responsibilities, if we want a free world to continue, we all have to stand up to Putin.

I said direct military security threat. Russia can't touch the USA.

There are other kinds of threats, the threat to liberal democracy for one. But the USA is a bigger threat to itself in that regard. Economic threat? You may be right, but we have a US President who is about to test US reliance on imports through tariffs. Trump has shown that we cannot rely on the USA to continue its role as leader of the free world, or as an unquestioned free-market economic ally. That is yet another area that Europe is going to have to learn to rely on intself. And again, we can't say we weren't warned.

But in terms of lives lost, refugees, attacks on infrastructure, nuclear blackmail, it is Europe, not the USA, that is going to suffer.

[jillc]

I said direct military security threat. Russia can't touch the USA.

There are other kinds of threats, the threat to liberal democracy for one. But the USA is a bigger threat to itself in that regard. Economic threat? You may be right, but we have a US President who is about to test US reliance on imports through tariffs. Trump has shown that we cannot rely on the USA to continue its role as leader of the free world, or as an unquestioned free-market economic ally. That is yet another area that Europe is going to have to learn to rely on intself. And again, we can't say we weren't warned.

But in terms of lives lost, refugees, attacks on infrastructure, nuclear blackmail, it is Europe, not the USA, that is going to suffer.

As far as Trump and his party of dodgers are concerned they think they can influence Putin. Putin, will kick that into touch the moment any "peace" talks begin and that is where it will get interesting. When Trump realises he cannot control Putin, what will be the reaction, at the moment we can only guess. But if he is continually made a fool of by Putin than he will come under enormous pressure to do something. In that situation not even Trump will be able to turn his back. It's how crap everything becomes between Trump realising he has no influence that is the biggest danger to Europe. That is where Europe has to remain strong and resolute.

[west_london_red]

Trump will have as much influence over Putin as he did over Kim Jong Un last time he was President ie fuck all.

[jillc]

Trump will have as much influence over Putin as he did over Kim Jong Un last time he was President ie fuck all.

Are you going to tell him that or should I? 

[rhysd]

Looks like it's all gearing up for Ukraine to get shafted.

Such a shit show, makes the West look weak as hell.

[Schmidt]

Zelensky speculating that Ukraine could join NATO with the agreement that the current disputed/occupied territories not be included in article 5. It remains to be seen how much appetite there would be from NATO countries for that kind of arrangement, but it would benefit Ukraine greatly. Essentially it'd put the territories completely controlled by Ukraine under the umbrella of NATO, giving them more freedom to focus their forces on the occupied areas.

It's difficult to see Russia agreeing to any deal that involves Ukraine joining NATO so this would be a way to try to do it without his approval, but I'd imagine the proposal is more of a threat than a genuine path to peace.

[Draex]

Zelensky speculating that Ukraine could join NATO with the agreement that the current disputed/occupied territories not be included in article 5. It remains to be seen how much appetite there would be from NATO countries for that kind of arrangement, but it would benefit Ukraine greatly. Essentially it'd put the territories completely controlled by Ukraine under the umbrella of NATO, giving them more freedom to focus their forces on the occupied areas.

It's difficult to see Russia agreeing to any deal that involves Ukraine joining NATO so this would be a way to try to do it without his approval, but I'd imagine the proposal is more of a threat than a genuine path to peace.

Why would Russia agree to that? One of their biggest arguements for invading what NATO building bases next to Russia.

[farawayred]

Why would Russia agree to that? One of their biggest arguements for invading what NATO building bases next to Russia.

Why would NATO (think the U.S.) agree to that too? The president who wants to stop the money flowing to Ukraine is coming to office only to approve a potentially bigger flow of money via NATO? Not a chance...

[west_london_red]

Why would NATO (think the U.S.) agree to that too? The president who wants to stop the money flowing to Ukraine is coming to office only to approve a potentially bigger flow of money via NATO? Not a chance...

How would Ukraine joining NATO cost the US more?

[Schmidt]

Why would Russia agree to that? One of their biggest arguements for invading what NATO building bases next to Russia.

The implication is that Russia wouldn't need to agree to it, NATO/Ukraine would presumably set a date for Ukraine to join NATO and specify the territory covered by article 5, then it would be up to Russia to decide whether to attack that territory after that date and risk invoking article 5, or stick to the regions they already partially occupy.

[Schmidt]

I should clarify that I doubt it'll happen, it would require everyone in NATO agreeing to it which is extremely unlikely, it seems like more of an attempt to scare Russia.

[Lusty]

Why would Russia agree to that? One of their biggest arguements for invading what NATO building bases next to Russia.

And the end result was at least one more NATO member on their doorstep already.

I don't think there can be any peace deal that doesn't involve Ukraine joining NATO because otherwise what's to stop Russia just regrouping and trying again in a couple of years?

[Red-Soldier]

And the end result was at least one more NATO member on their doorstep already.

I don't think there can be any peace deal that doesn't involve Ukraine joining NATO because otherwise what's to stop Russia just regrouping and trying again in a couple of years?

Indeed.

[farawayred]

How would Ukraine joining NATO cost the US more?

By defending them.

[west_london_red]

By defending them.

Only if Russia attacked Ukraine if it was a NATO member, and I think the general consensus is that’s very unlikely to happen if Ukraine was able to join NATO (not that I think that will happen)

[PaulF]

I thought there was some rule starting you can't join NATO if you are at war? Presumably zelensky thinks there's a workaround

What the hell happens if Ukraine regroup then try to reclaim their land and Russia push back and into Ukraine.

Makes the contract situation of our three look like child's play.

[Schmidt]

I thought there was some rule starting you can't join NATO if you are at war? Presumably zelensky thinks there's a workaround

What the hell happens if Ukraine regroup then try to reclaim their land and Russia push back and into Ukraine.

Makes the contract situation of our three look like child's play.

Ultimately NATO can decide whatever requirements they want to demand of Ukraine. There's been speculation that they would either be allowed into NATO on the condition that article 5 can't be triggered by Russian occupation, or only the regions that aren't occupied at all would be allowed in and the rest would remain an active warzone.

[west_london_red]

Ultimately NATO can decide whatever requirements they want to demand of Ukraine. There's been speculation that they would either be allowed into NATO on the condition that article 5 can't be triggered by Russian occupation, or only the regions that aren't occupied at all would be allowed in and the rest would remain an active warzone.

Never going to happen, only takes one country to veto membership and between Trump, Orban, Erdogan and that twat whose leading the polls in Romania at least one will block Ukraines membership.

[Caligula?]

Never going to happen, only takes one country to veto membership and between Trump, Orban, Erdogan and that twat whose leading the polls in Romania at least one will block Ukraines membership.

They'll never be allowed in. Orban would eventually relent but Erdogan would never. Ukraine joining NATO is a pipedream.

[Schmidt]

Never going to happen, only takes one country to veto membership and between Trump, Orban, Erdogan and that twat whose leading the polls in Romania at least one will block Ukraines membership.

Yeah I don't think it'll happen any time soon, I was just explaining that article 5 isn't necessarily an issue.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Yeah I don't think it'll happen any time soon, I was just explaining that article 5 isn't necessarily an issue.

Article 5 isnt mandatory I think. I dont recall USA activating it during 9/11.

[ELMO!]

Article 5 isnt mandatory I think. I dont recall USA activating it during 9/11.

It was triggered after 9/11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#September_11_attacks

[ChaChaMooMoo]

It was triggered after 9/11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#September_11_attacks

Ah the only time it WAS triggered was after 9/11.
I had that misunderstood.

[farawayred]

Ah the only time it WAS triggered was after 9/11.
I had that misunderstood.

But you are right that it isn't mandatory. Each NATO government is called to action, but the decision on how to do that is with said government.

[thaddeus]

Do we think that the Syrian uprising would have succeeded if Russia wasn't heavily distracted by its invasion of Ukraine?  The previous civil war seemed to be ultimately decided by Russian airpower.

Presumably the Russia-backed mercenaries in Africa are self-sustaining but Russia does seem very thinly spread right now.  If they're badging themselves as the guns for hire to stop Islamist uprisings then the past few days isn't a great advert for them.

[Libertine]

Zelenskyy meets Merz, likely next German chancellor.

Hopefully his political stature will match his physical one and be a vast improvement on the useless Schulz.

[west_london_red]

Do we think that the Syrian uprising would have succeeded if Russia wasn't heavily distracted by its invasion of Ukraine?  The previous civil war seemed to be ultimately decided by Russian airpower.

Presumably the Russia-backed mercenaries in Africa are self-sustaining but Russia does seem very thinly spread right now.  If they're badging themselves as the guns for hire to stop Islamist uprisings then the past few days isn't a great advert for them.

At best what has happened in Syria is an embarrassment for Russia Id say, at worst for Russia its a humiliation.

[Giono]

Zelenskyy meets Merz, likely next German chancellor.

Hopefully his political stature will match his physical one and be a vast improvement on the useless Schulz.

He wants to give the Ukranians long distance missiles.

[Gerry Attrick]

He wants to give the Ukranians long distance missiles.

It’s simply too late. What Europe can afford to give won’t be close to making up for what Trump is going to remove.

[Giono]

At best what has happened in Syria is an embarrassment for Russia Id say, at worst for Russia its a humiliation.

They have bases and a fleet based in Syria. I don't think any Syrian gov will tolerate that after the Russians bombed them. That will greatly reduce Russia's reach in the middle east.

[Buster Gonad]

Do we think that the Syrian uprising would have succeeded if Russia wasn't heavily distracted by its invasion of Ukraine?  The previous civil war seemed to be ultimately decided by Russian airpower.

Presumably the Russia-backed mercenaries in Africa are self-sustaining but Russia does seem very thinly spread right now.  If they're badging themselves as the guns for hire to stop Islamist uprisings then the past few days isn't a great advert for them.

Not entirely sure but it must have been a factor.  Levelling cities indiscriminately in Syria and Ukraine must have taken its toll. I would think they needed to blanket bomb again in Syria to quell the uprising.  They've replaced shells with human sacrifices already in Ukraine which is a good sign stocks are low.

[farawayred]

They have bases and a fleet based in Syria. I don't think any Syrian gov will tolerate that after the Russians bombed them. That will greatly reduce Russia's reach in the middle east.

Who knows... HTS have said that the Russian bases are safe. But then, the Taliban said all the right things too when they took power...

Russia lost Syria because their attention was on Ukraine. Some reports that Asad's wife has been in Russia since November, so the unfolding of the events has been foreseen. But their inability to act was evident.

[stoa]

Zelenskyy meets Merz, likely next German chancellor.

Hopefully his political stature will match his physical one and be a vast improvement on the useless Schulz.

He's a massive weasel and I would take everything he says with a huge pinch of salt. His political stature definitely doesn't match his physical one...

[Schmidt]

It’s simply too late. What Europe can afford to give won’t be close to making up for what Trump is going to remove.

It's never too late to give more weapons. I'm not convinced he will, as he sounds like one of those politicians that just disagrees with whatever the current leader says, but Ukraine have been using western missiles to devastating effect so the more the better.

[Libertine]

@oalexanderdk.bsky.social‬
Last week the Russian Central Bank sold 1 trillion in bonds to the banks in order to raise money to cover the 2024 government deficit.
The banks lacked liquidity to buy, so now the CB is lending the banks money to buy its own bonds.
All while using the same bonds as collateral for the loan.


  Seems legit....

[Buster Gonad]

@oalexanderdk.bsky.social‬
Last week the Russian Central Bank sold 1 trillion in bonds to the banks in order to raise money to cover the 2024 government deficit.
The banks lacked liquidity to buy, so now the CB is lending the banks money to buy its own bonds.
All while using the same bonds as collateral for the loan.


  Seems legit....

And I thought the pyramids were in Egypt.
 
It's sad that Russias economy is only failing at the same time as their stooge is about to enter the white house.

[Giono]

@oalexanderdk.bsky.social‬
Last week the Russian Central Bank sold 1 trillion in bonds to the banks in order to raise money to cover the 2024 government deficit.
The banks lacked liquidity to buy, so now the CB is lending the banks money to buy its own bonds.
All while using the same bonds as collateral for the loan.


  Seems legit....

And BRICS countries want people to trust a new currency run by such governments...ya right.

[rhysd]

Unfortunately NATO membership for Ukraine was always just words. It was never going to happen.

I have no clue how these negotiations are going to pan out, but no way on earth Putin allows it to include Ukraine in NATO.

[jepovic]

Unfortunately NATO membership for Ukraine was always just words. It was never going to happen.

I have no clue how these negotiations are going to pan out, but no way on earth Putin allows it to include Ukraine in NATO.

Everyone needs to realize that the entire notion of peace talks is very much a Russian propaganda trap.
Putin doesnt want peace, he wants all of Ukraine and Im sure his advisors will tell him its possible.

The real question is what happens when Trump realizes this. Maybe he simply abandons Ukraine, but he could also get angry at Putin for ruining his peace plan. Another factor is that Trump abandonding europe will be terrible for US arms sales.

Ukraine wont have any choice but to continue, as Putin has shown that surrender would mean genocide with millions executed and sent to Siberia. Europe are reacting slowly, but there is a strong buildup of arms production. Ukraine is also expanding. With the Soviet stockpiles running dry, it wont be an easy victory for Putin even without US support.