Having watched them a bit, I don't think I can overstate how important it is that don't sit off out of possession. They're missing a lot of players and they've got a lot of injury doubts but they'll be confident after their win over Spurs and they're playing quite aggressively at the moment so we need to match that and not allow them to a) be able to play balls to Benteke in good positions on the left and b) get support around him. I doubt Sherwood will want to change too much so I think he'll stick with their 4-3-1-2 that they've been playing recently and look to take the game to us. If we stand off then they'll be able to not only push up the pitch but be able to press us aggressively because of their numbers through the middle. I could easily foresee us being put under pressure in periods and struggling to get out so we need to try and eliminate that possibility.
I think we have a number of options in terms of how we setup. It really is down to where Rodgers wants to target, if he has a particular space he wants to use. I could see him sticking with the back four and looking to get 2v1s in the wide areas - especially when Aston Villa go long for Benteke and condense narrowly trying to win the second ball, there will be space wide, so I think consistently switching the play quickly should help us to not get swamped by their narrow, hard-working midfield. The likes of Moreno running forward immediately when possession is won should find space. If their outside midfielders/shuttlers then go wide to mark on the flanks then space may well open up either side of their holding midfielder so we can use that either through our wide forwards, striker or Henderson making runs high up like he did against Newcastle.
The alternative would be to change back to a back three, which I think has its strong points as well. If we were to do so, we might see Skrtel go to RCB to deal with Benteke in the air, with Can sweeping up behind and that would also give us cover on the counter attack. The issue is whether we'd end up sitting off again and becoming a back five too often, which is why I think it might be a better possibility for us to start with the 3-4-3 diamond. Assuming Villa will stick with a diamond instead of changing it up, then a 3-4-3 diamond would enable us to match them in midfield, retain a spare man at the back and have two players pushed up against their full backs.
That might force us into closing them down high like we did in the second half against Swansea and though it might be more difficult for us to find 2v1s in the wide areas, we would probably play more aggressively as a result. The key whatever we do is to defend aggressively to push them back and to move the ball about well so that we can take advantage of whatever space they leave. If we were brave and started Markovic and Sterling as the sole flank players, we could get a lot of joy against their full backs - if we can get Sterling running as much as possible at Richardson we will definitely cause them problems. Alternatively we could choose to keep Moreno in over Markovic in order to provide some better width on the left or bring Markovic inside to play either at the tip or as one of the shuttlers in the diamond and take out Allen.
