Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[Knight]

What does this mean in real terms?

Darwin this season is averaging 22 passes a game, completing 71%. He is playing 2.2 progressive passes per game and is at 0.23 xA.

Feyenoord's primary number 9 is averaging 15 passes a game with a 67% completion rate. He is playing 1.4 progressive passes per game and is at 0.13 xA.

He just blasted straight past this as if it didn't expose his whole argument as total nonsense. Shameless.

[SerbianScouser]

We have a genuine world class player who happens to be a local lad that we can build around.

I agree.

Jayden Danns is gonna be boss next sesason.

[Darren G]

The thing is you don't trust Nunez to do anything. You don't trust him to lead our attack, you don't trust him to counter attack and you don't trust him against a low block.

The thing is the stats don't back that up. For his two seasons at Liverpool he has been pretty much bang on a League goal every 180 minutes. So a goal every other game if he played the full 90 every week. So around 19 League goals per season despite not being a regular penalty taker for us.

At Benfica in his second season he scored a League goal every 76 minutes which is prolific.

So from the age of 21-24 he has scored a League goal every 123 minutes. So if he played 90 minutes in every game he would average out at just under 28 League goals per season from the age of 21-24.

Amazing how a player you wouldn't trust to play in an under 9's 5 a side has a record like that?

The level of mental gymnastics here is incredible. Claims of some hypothetical 19 league goals per season, based upon mashing stats together to create a hypothetical situation, coupled with essentially using a freak year when he wildly outperformed his xG as a foundation for building your entire argument upon. This whilst also cherry-picking timeframes, such as ignoring Darwin's first season at Benfica or even Almeria prior to that for that matter.

 The fact is that despite hypothetical flights of fancy his actual league goals for three of the past four seasons have been 6,9 and (so far) 11. I am not arguing that he was not prolific in 21/22, but as already stated, he wildly outperformed his xG that year. That's not sustainable and given that he has actually underperformed his xG for four of the past five years, combined with his actual goal tally and performances since then, 21/22 begins more and more to look like a freak year such as Clive Allen had back in the 86/87 season. 

Personally, I'm sort of on the fence with him. I wouldn't be too bothered if we sold him, but at the same time wouldn't be up in arms if he stayed on either. I like the lad and want him to succeed and if we do see an improvement under Slot that would be great. I just don't understand this propensity to try and rationalise away all of the issues with him though. 

[Fromola]

The thing is you don't trust Nunez to do anything. You don't trust him to lead our attack, you don't trust him to counter attack and you don't trust him against a low block.

The thing is the stats don't back that up. For his two seasons at Liverpool he has been pretty much bang on a League goal every 180 minutes. So a goal every other game if he played the full 90 every week. So around 19 League goals per season despite not being a regular penalty taker for us.

At Benfica in his second season he scored a League goal every 76 minutes which is prolific.

So from the age of 21-24 he has scored a League goal every 123 minutes. So if he played 90 minutes in every game he would average out at just under 28 League goals per season from the age of 21-24.

Amazing how a player you wouldn't trust to play in an under 9's 5 a side has a record like that?

It's when you get the goals as well though. In 21/22 we played 3 cup finals and didn't score in them. In a summer when we really need to sort the midfield out, this may have led to us spending a club record fee on a striker. Therefore Nunez was being relied on to score on the big occasion. He's failed to do that and instead there's numerous big games where he's missed sitters at crucial times.

Origi's goal output was never great, but he scored so many big goals.

[mullyred94]

Give over Al. We took a calculated risk in signing him hoping he'd improve and he didn't. We have given him two seasons of support and he's no better now than day one.

Hes had a few flashes of brilliance but he doesn't deliver anywhere near as mud as we need if we want to be fighting for trophies.

He has failed. It is sad but it's a fact.

Complete and utter bullshit.

[Eeyore]

But he isn't scoring 19 league goals a season is he?! He has 20 league goals TOTAL between his two seasons.

The per90 stats don't work like that in reality do they? He's not playing 90mins every game, nobody does. And he's not scoring 19 league goals a season despite what the per90 stats claim, he's scoring an average of 10 goals a season.

What are we doing here? Seriously.

People are sacrificing actual factual output in favour of theoretical output and somehow claiming the high ground?

If Darwin's underlying numbers are so elite why aren't they translating to league goals? If they're so good why isn't he *actually* scoring more? If he doesn't have issues with putting the ball in the net why doesn't he have more than 9 league goals last year and 11 this? Bad luck? That's what all the analysis and incredibly detailed number crunching comes down to? Just bad luck? Not very scientific.

Could it perhaps be because, just possibly, just maybe, there are elements in his play that the numbers you're looking at aren't showing?Could it possibly be because they're interpretive but not necessarily 100% transferable to the reality of what we're actually seeing from him?

It is a pretty unique situation we are in though. How often has a top team had 5 top forwards who are all basically more than capable of starting games. Nunez is being compared to the current top goalscorers in the League. The likes of Watkins, Solanke, Bowen etc. The thing is they are all playing 3000 plus minutes this season.

When we had the likes of Salah, Mane and Firmino they all had seasons in which they played 3000+ minutes. Last season for instance Salah played 3294 minutes that does not include added time. So that was 3294 out of a possible 3420 minutes. So yes forwards do get to play 90 minutes for pretty much every League game in a season. Solanke this season for instance has played 3030 from a possible 3060 minutes.

Nunez has 3696 league minutes in his entire Liverpool career. So basically 1.08 seasons of League football. In that number of minutes he has scored 20 League goals despite not being on penalties and despite not having the team setup to play to his strengths. There have been comparisons to the likes of Solanke, Watkins and Toney. How many goals would they be getting if they were at Liverpool competing with the likes of Diaz, Jota, Gakpo and Salah for minutes.

As I said we are in a pretty unique in having 5 genuine starting forwards.

[kop306]

how many premier league goals has nunez scored this season ?

[Eeyore]

Origi was worth ten Nunezes. Good old Divock.

What happened to the £850m we sold Origi for then?

[PaleBlueDot]

He just blasted straight past this as if it didn't expose his whole argument as total nonsense. Shameless.

What's shameless is you tweaking for some stats as if he's just dropped the Holy grail. I've ignored it as its another ridiculous stat drop that proves nothing to the conversation.

Santiago Giminez is better on the ball than Darwin Nunez. That's a fact. I could get stats to prove anything in football if the recipients have never used their eyes.

Salah scored 44 goals in a season for us and had a boat load of criminal misses. I bet I can make his season look shite with some numbers if I wanted.

But keep going. Ridiculous....

[Eeyore]

how many premier league goals has nunez scored this season ?

11 from 1997 minutes.

[JackWard33]

Imagine posting that how many minutes a player is on the pitch for isn’t relevant when considering how many goals they’ve scored …. Even worse imagine actually thinking that’s a solid piece of reasoning and makes your case

[alonsoisared]

But he isn't scoring 19 league goals a season is he?! He has 20 league goals TOTAL between his two seasons.

The per90 stats don't work like that in reality do they? He's not playing 90mins every game, nobody does. And he's not scoring 19 league goals a season despite what the per90 stats claim, he's scoring an average of 10 goals a season.

What are we doing here? Seriously.

People are sacrificing actual factual output in favour of theoretical output and somehow claiming the high ground?

If Darwin's underlying numbers are so elite why aren't they translating to league goals? If they're so good why isn't he *actually* scoring more? If he doesn't have issues with putting the ball in the net why doesn't he have more than 9 league goals last year and 11 this? Bad luck? That's what all the analysis and incredibly detailed number crunching comes down to? Just bad luck? Not very scientific.

Could it perhaps be because, just possibly, just maybe, there are elements in his play that the numbers you're looking at aren't showing?Could it possibly be because they're interpretive but not necessarily 100% transferable to the reality of what we're actually seeing from him?

This is spot on. People bring up his numbers as if he's a 1 in 2 striker (or 28 a season in the post you quoted) but he just isn't. He's had one prolific season and it wasn't for us. Like it or not for us he's a 10/11 goal a season striker who cost us a mad amount of money. We aren't Man City, we can't afford to spend that money and not get results. We can manipulate stats however we like, if he really was a 28 goal a season, or even a 20 goal a season striker in the league, we'd still be in the race to win it.

[kop306]

11 from 1997 minutes.

20 goals minimum should be the target

we will buy a top class forward in the summer that will get the goals next season

[Yorkykopite]

His stats aren't as good as Tony Hateley's were. A similar sort of player too. But Tony Hateley got 28 goals in his one and only season at Anfield. And then he was sold. Shanks knew he wasn't right for the team. Big and combative, for sure, a producer of chaos, yes, but on a different wavelength to players like St John, Thompson, Hunt and Callaghan. And no finesse.

I look at Darwin, and yes he can be effective. He's not calm in front of goal of course, but he can blam them in occasionally. He treats the ball like a hot potato sometimes, but he's extremely fast and given a bit of open space and he can outstrip a defence easily. He's an odd sort of player for Liverpool though. We've never really tried to integrate a centre forward like him into our team before. Rafa initially tried it with Dirk Kuyt (much slower than Darwin but equally prone to just smashing the ball as hard as he could to goal). He soon gave up and put him on the right wing (a defensive position for Rafa). Will Slot persevere with the experiment? No idea. I rather hope he looks for another Firmino to play at 9 myself.

[mullyred94]

This is spot on. People bring up his numbers as if he's a 1 in 2 striker (or 28 a season in the post you quoted) but he just isn't. He's had one prolific season and it wasn't for us. Like it or not for us he's a 10/11 goal a season striker who cost us a mad amount of money. We aren't Man City, we can't afford to spend that money and not get results. We can manipulate stats however we like, if he really was a 28 goal a season, or even a 20 goal a season striker in the league, we'd still be in the race to win it.

I'd blame the whole front 3.

Can't just blame Darwin. Left winger whos apparently the player of the season has 8 goals and 5 assists in the league.

Salah hasn't done anything for months apart from scoring against United.

[mullyred94]

20 goals minimum should be the target

we will buy a top class forward in the summer that will get the goals next season

And who is that forward?

[alonsoisared]

Imagine posting that how many minutes a player is on the pitch for isn’t relevant when considering how many goals they’ve scored …. Even worse imagine actually thinking that’s a solid piece of reasoning and makes your case

It isn't that it's not relevant, but it's the same for every player. Nobody plays the full 90 every week. 20 league goals a season has always pretty much been the barometer of an elite centre forward. He's had a lot of minutes this year, he's not missed months through injury. He's on 11 league goals. It's an objectively crap return.

[alonsoisared]

I'd blame the whole front 3.

Can't just blame Darwin. Left winger whos apparently the player of the season has 8 goals and 5 assists in the league.

Salah hasn't done anything for months apart from scoring against United.

No, I agree. I don't think he's the only problem or even the biggest problem. We've needed better from all of them particularly in the last 4/5 weeks.

[Yorkykopite]

Nunez is being compared to the current top goalscorers in the League. The likes of Watkins, Solanke, Bowen etc. The thing is they are all playing 3000 plus minutes this season.
Nunez has 3696 league minutes in his entire Liverpool career.

Maybe. But this guy made a very good point the other day......

The point is that if Jota was this super efficient goal scoring machine then he would be playing a lot more minutes.

[mullyred94]

It isn't that it's not relevant, but it's the same for every player. Nobody plays the full 90 every week. 20 league goals a season has always pretty much been the barometer of an elite centre forward. He's had a lot of minutes this year, he's not missed months through injury. He's on 11 league goals. It's an objectively crap return.

Most strikers for other teams do play most minutes if you're not City Liverpool or Arsenal.

Watkins would play most 90s so would Solanke which are players who have been named to be better than Nunez.

Also a funny thing. Isak and Nunez have been involved in basically the same amount of goals in the EPL.

I don't think would have suited Klopps style either for example.

[JackWard33]

It isn't that it's not relevant, but it's the same for every player. Nobody plays the full 90 every week. 20 league goals a season has always pretty much been the barometer of an elite centre forward. He's had a lot of minutes this year, he's not missed months through injury. He's on 11 league goals. It's an objectively crap return.

It’s not a partly relevant debatable thing … it’s literally how much a player has played
He’s a talented boy but it’s really hard to score goals when you’re not on the pitch
Jotas got 10 league goals … an “objectively” even crapper return
Kevin De Bruynes got 4 league goals… the washed up loser

Come on… we all get that there’s a debate around Nunez’s level but you’ve got to have it in good faith
Players can’t score when they’re not on the pitch (sort of mad that has to be spelt out but that’s what you and others are currently arguing against)

[kop306]

And who is that forward?

isak

[Eeyore]

What's shameless is you tweaking for some stats as if he's just dropped the Holy grail. I've ignored it as its another ridiculous stat drop that proves nothing to the conversation.

Santiago Giminez is better on the ball than Darwin Nunez. That's a fact. I could get stats to prove anything in football if the recipients have never used their eyes.

Salah scored 44 goals in a season for us and had a boat load of criminal misses. I bet I can make his season look shite with some numbers if I wanted.

But keep going. Ridiculous....

If Giminez is better on the ball why has he got a lower pass completion rate 68.45% compared to Nunez with 72.59%, made far less successful passes 9.91 to Nunez's 14.59 per game. Why does he make far less key passes 1.01 compared to Nunez's 1.45 per game. He provides assists at a far lower rate 1 every 472 minutes compared to Nunez 1 every 250 minutes.

Why is he dispossessed 1.7 times per game compared to Nunez 1.2 per game. That is in a League that is way below the Premier League.

Maybe you need to take your eye test to Specsavers.

[alonsoisared]

It’s not a partly relevant debatable thing … it’s literally how much a player has played
He’s a talented boy but it’s really hard to score goals when you’re not on the pitch
Jotas got 10 league goals … an “objectively” even crapper return
Kevin De Bruynes got 4 league goals… the washed up loser

Come on… we all get that there’s a debate around Nunez’s level you’ve got to have it in good faith
Players can’t score when they’re not on the pitch (sort of mad that has to be spelt out but that’s what you and others are currently arguing against)

He's missed a small handful of games through injury , unlike De Bruyne and Jota who have missed weeks and weeks. So why isn't he getting the minutes? His performances haven't made him first name on the team sheet, a third of the games he's been involved in, he's been on the bench. Look at the key players in our squad, if they're available they start. Isn't that worth consideration when assessing how good he is?

Regardless, with the games he's played and the chances he's missed he could easily be up to 20 if he had some finesse about him.

[JasonF]

He's missed a small handful of games through injury , unlike De Bruyne and Jota who have missed weeks and weeks. So why isn't he getting the minutes? His performances haven't made him first name on the team sheet, a third of the games he's been involved in, he's been on the bench. Look at the key players in our squad, if they're available they start. Isn't that worth consideration when assessing how good he is?

Regardless, with the games he's played and the chances he's missed he could easily be up to 20 if he had some finesse about him.

Sounds like we have some player on our hands. Already hitting a goal or assist every 105 mins but with a bit more composure could be hitting a goal or assist every 71 mins by your reckoning. That would take him from elite to one of the best in the world.

[JackWard33]

He's missed a small handful of games through injury , unlike De Bruyne and Jota who have missed weeks and weeks.

So we agree per 90 is the way to measure players - given your realisation around KDB and Jota?

I'm happy to talk about other things like you've posted here.. but not if you and others aren't accepting per 90 as a measure of a players production

There can be nuance beyond that but you can't say a players return is objectviely bad (objectively means factual) for 'an entire season' without your start point being minutes on the pitch - fair?

[Eeyore]

Maybe. But this guy made a very good point the other day......

The point is that Nunez has far more to his game. Jota is portrayed as a master finisher. Darwin is portrayed as someone who can't hit a barn door.

Remarkably Jota is at 183 minutes per goal in the Premier League. Nunez is at 184.7 minutes per goal in the Premier League.

Jota is at 613.82 minutes per assist in the Premier League. Nunez is at 335.82 minutes per assist in the Premier League.

[Yorkykopite]

The point is that Nunez has far more to his game. Jota is portrayed as a master finisher. Darwin is portrayed as someone who can't hit a barn door.

Remarkably Jota is at 183 minutes per goal in the Premier League. Nunez is at 184.7 minutes per goal in the Premier League.

Jota is at 613.82 minutes per assist in the Premier League. Nunez is at 335.82 minutes per assist in the Premier League.

Maybe. (I'm a Jota man myself).

But I am more interested in the way you use the same statistics to argue diametrically opposite points on different days. I've long admired your ability to do this and was just tickled you were doing it just now. 

[Eeyore]

He's missed a small handful of games through injury , unlike De Bruyne and Jota who have missed weeks and weeks. So why isn't he getting the minutes? His performances haven't made him first name on the team sheet, a third of the games he's been involved in, he's been on the bench. Look at the key players in our squad, if they're available they start. Isn't that worth consideration when assessing how good he is?

Regardless, with the games he's played and the chances he's missed he could easily be up to 20 if he had some finesse about him.

Jota has also started a third of his games on the bench though. A large part of that was also when we only had 4 frontline strikers.

[Eeyore]

Maybe. (I'm a Jota man myself).

But I am more interested in the way you use the same statistics to argue diametrically opposite points on different days. I've long admired your ability to do this and was just tickled you were doing it just now. 

It is the context though. Jota is portrayed as a master finisher despite not having a particularly good scoring rate. He is also in the peak years of his career and is seen as the finished article.

I see Nunez as a young Striker who almost certainly has the best years of his career ahead of him. Big powerful athletic strikers mature later. The context is that they both score at a decent rate but the perceptions are completely different.

[JackWard33]

It is the context though. Jota is portrayed as a master finisher despite not having a particularly good scoring rate. He is also in the peak years of his career and is seen as the finished article.

I see Nunez as a young Striker who almost certainly has the best years of his career ahead of him. Big powerful athletic strikers mature later. The context is that they both score at a decent rate but the perceptions are completely different.

They're both very good forwards
This season one has converted at an unsustainable double his xg in the league ..the other has converted at an unsustainable -35% under his xg in the league .... and so this season one has been turned into Fowler and one has been turned into Benteke

[Vinay]

Would a forward line of Leao, Jota and Nunez be good enough?

[Eeyore]

20 goals minimum should be the target

we will buy a top class forward in the summer that will get the goals next season

Firmino's best season was when he got 15 League goals and in 8 seasons here scored 82 League goals so 10.5 per season. Not good enough.

Mane's had one season when he scored 20+ league goals and in 6 seasons scored 90 League goals so 15 per season. Not good enough for you.

Interestingly at a similar age to Nunez now in their two first full seasons playing more minutes than Nunez. Firmino got 21 goals and Mane got 23 goals. With 3 games left Nunez has 20 in his first two seasons.

So why were Mane and Firmino clearly good enough but Nunez isn't?

[tunred]

Might be overreacting but his finishing cost us the title. Time an time again he misses a clear cut chance to open the score or put us 2-0 up and we end up conceding a goal and having to run after the score.

[tunred]

Firmino's best season was when he got 15 League goals and in 8 seasons here scored 82 League goals so 10.5 per season. Not good enough.

Mane's had one season when he scored 20+ league goals and in 6 seasons scored 90 League goals so 15 per season. Not good enough for you.

Interestingly at a similar age to Nunez now in their two first full seasons playing more minutes than Nunez. Firmino got 21 goals and Mane got 23 goals. With 3 games left Nunez has 20 in his first two seasons.

So why were Mane and Firmino clearly good enough but Nunez isn't?

Their all round game is way better. Firmino used to be our first defender when out of possession and I can count on Mane to put the ball in the net when it matters

[CHOPPER]

Might be overreacting but his finishing cost us the title. Time an time again he misses a clear cut chance to open the score or put us 2-0 up and we end up conceding a goal and having to run after the score.

Naah, he was one of many that probably costs us a better run in and a chance to win the title, and the fa cup. Europa, we just stunk as team. Though Mo's shit miss may have changed the game.

Unfair to call out just one, they're all fucking doing my head in!

[Buster Gonad]

Might be overreacting but his finishing cost us the title. Time an time again he misses a clear cut chance to open the score or put us 2-0 up and we end up conceding a goal and having to run after the score.

Definitely overreacting.  Did you watch us yesterday?

[cdav]

I think Al's point above about trust is the most pertinent point, can you trust him to score the goals going forward consistently? The stats say he gets into the positions and has been unlucky to underperform his xg by so much, the eye says he is pretty rash in his finishing and may not have the composure or coolness to turn those numbers into actual production

Big decisions need to be made on the forward line this summer as similar issues appear across all of them. Like much of the rest of the team, some consistency in selection could be an important fist step to building confidence in all areas of the pitch

[Darren G]

The point is that Nunez has far more to his game. Jota is portrayed as a master finisher. Darwin is portrayed as someone who can't hit a barn door.

Remarkably Jota is at 183 minutes per goal in the Premier League. Nunez is at 184.7 minutes per goal in the Premier League.

Jota is at 613.82 minutes per assist in the Premier League. Nunez is at 335.82 minutes per assist in the Premier League.

Jota has an xG in the league of 5.3 and 10 goals. Nunez has an xG of 15.7 and 11 goals. Jota has been above his xG in the league in his three seasons with Liverpool, Nunez under his both seasons. 'Master finisher' strawman hyperbole aside, that stat alone indicates that Jota has done far better with his chances at the club.

[harleydanger]

Jota has an xG in the league of 5.3 and 10 goals. Nunez has an xG of 15.7 and 11 goals. Jota has been above his xG in the league in his three seasons with Liverpool, Nunez under his both seasons. 'Master finisher' strawman hyperbole aside, that stat alone indicates that Jota has done far better with his chances at the club.

It also indicates Nunez is somehow getting FAR more chances.