Topic: It's just a battle for the order of the first 4 spots now between 5 teams...

[Roger Federer]

I wouldn't. Go back in this thread and you'll see that I thought we were more or less out of the title race only a few games ago. I still think we wont pull it off, but the fact it is even remotely realistic at this stage is such a great feeling. I'd rather play these last 11 games out and see what happens than 'take' 3rd now. We're in good form, we're playing some great football, and we have both Chelsea and City at home left to play. This is what is all about, I wouldn't give all that up for 3rd, especially when it's very likely that we'll finish top 4 anyway (Spurs are the only threat, but I hope we've put enough distance between us now).

[CraigDS]

Would anyone take 3rd if it was offered to us now? I'm probably in a minority based on this last page but I certainly would.

I wouldn't.

I would before the season started (I predicted 3rd) but not now. Having seen how the other teams around us are playing, the fact they will have extra games (CL and FA), and that we are scoring for fun, I think we could worry some towards the very end of the season.

[Anywhichwayicant]

Would anyone take 3rd if it was offered to us now? I'm probably in a minority based on this last page but I certainly would.

No way.

I was saying all last season that we weren't a seventh place team. When others were justifying poor performances by saying we didnt have the quality, I was always bullish about our chances and where we should be.

[goalspaytherent]

If you offered me that you would have no hand left good sir.

I would take his watch as well ....

[anything else]

I would not take 3rd. Admittedly, I am now retracting my statement in another thread about looking down the table rather than up. With the opening of that 6 point gap over Spurs I genuinely believe we can play under less pressure, and afford to go all out for the title. (Even given my personal belief that we are unable to win it)

[boots]

I dont think we can win it. But it will be close and sometimes you just never know. So I wouldnt tell my team my doubts. I'd tell them to push for it. 4th is still not certain. 2 losses can change everything. I'd feel happier about 4th if we were currently 2nd. I'd feel a lot happier about 4th if spuds were 9pts behind.

Basically its still to early to say. We all know full well how shit can happen. Our premiership is unpredictable. 11 games to go. Wait till theres only 5 to go and begin to dream if we are still in with a shout. But for now its head down and focus.

[Caston]

I agree. I don't buy this nonsense about our run in being easy.

Southampton away is as tough for us as any of those are. West Ham also the way they play. We'd expect 16pts from 24 (2ppg) the way things are going but that might be a little optimistic as we've run out of easy home games and our away form is treading water. Can we get a point at St Mary's? The great escape against Fulham suggested we might have a bit extra but we just cannot defend!

Southampton (A) (L)
United (A) (D)
Cardiff (A) (W)
Tottenham (H) (D)
West Ham (A) (D)
City (H) (D)
Norwich (A) (W)
Chelsea (H) (D)

^^11pts is probably somewhere between current form and worst case scenario (6pts).

2 Wins out of 8? Can't see that happening at all

[Samie]

Some of you lads aint dreamers. I say dream big fuck this trying to go for third. 

[jordyball10]

If we didnt get 4th now god..... i dont think i could read some of the posts on here   

[jordyball10]

2 Wins out of 8? Can't see that happening at all

Lol hes also got us to draw at home to spurs 

[beardsley4ever]

How can people be complaining about our next run of games?  If you are four points behind the leaders, then this is EXACTLY the run of games you want - playing two of the teams above us at home.  We've been in a position this good exactly once in the last 12 seasons - enjoy it.  COME ON YOU REDS!!

[peachybum]

How can people be complaining about our next run of games?  If you are four points behind the leaders, then this is EXACTLY the run of games you want - playing two of the teams above us at home.  We've been in a position this good exactly once in the last 12 seasons - enjoy it.  COME ON YOU REDS!!

Strangely i think it's a good set of fixtures to go for the title but it also has the possibility of being a bad set of fixtures to hold off Spurs and stay in the top 4.

[peachybum]

Lol hes also got us to draw at home to spurs 

I've got us for a draw in that game to. Spurs are fifth. They aren't shit and they have a very good away record. That game is not a home banker. The only home bankers we have left are Sunderland and Newcastle.

[owens_2k]

I've got us for a draw in that game to. Spurs are fifth. They aren't shit and they have a very good away record. That game is not a home banker. The only home bankers we have left are Sunderland and Newcastle.

There are no home bankers in the PL!

[Hij]

Both sides - particularly the Mancs - will raise their games massively when we step out at their grounds, add the pressure of the end of season run in (as witnessed yesterday) and all those figures and stats amount to the square root of fuck all.

What about Man City's home record? Do those stats mean fuck all?

Bunch of pussy cats in here.

We will RAISE OUR GAME when we play Man United as well. Based on the season so far it would be a rather epic collapse to lose both on the bounce. It is possible, just as winning both of them 5-0 is.

[Samie]

There are no home bankers in the PL!

Actually there are if you go by the teams record in that season and ours record at home is great.

 If it was down some of you lot in here we'd be relegated shitting if for every game.

[redmark]

So everyone has been playing worse than the form required to finish a season 9 wins 1 draw and 1 loss. Thats the point I was trying to make.

That's kind of nonsensical, though. You don't judge a run of 10 games by what that would mean over the course of a season; because it isn't over the course of a season. Whatever a side's finishing record, they will have had better runs and worse runs.

For example, Chelsea are currently on a run of 9 wins and 3 draws in 12 games. City had a run of 11 wins and 1 draw. Arsenal had 8 wins and 1 draw, or 11 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Did none of those happen, because their overall record is below that level?

If any of the top four go on that sort of run now, they will probably win the title. Who? Will Chelsea extend theirs? Will City or Arsenal have a run similar to those they've already enjoyed? Or will we have our best run of the season? (Currently 6 wins and 2 draws).

[Nessy76]

Strangely i think it's a good set of fixtures to go for the title but it also has the possibility of being a bad set of fixtures to hold off Spurs and stay in the top 4.

Spurs are a busted flush. Adebayor has gone back to sleep and they have no other options.

[Hij]

Southampton (A) (L)
United (A) (D)
Cardiff (A) (W)
Tottenham (H) (D)
West Ham (A) (D)
City (H) (D)
Norwich (A) (W)
Chelsea (H) (D)

^^11pts is probably somewhere between current form and worst case scenario (6pts).

Fucking hell man. We're going to go from 2 points per game throughout the entire season to either relegation form at 1 point per game or fucking ridiculous form at 0.55 points per game.

It's like the nearer we come to establishing a position in fourth, the harder the upcoming fixtures become.

If all of those fixtures are that difficult then remember all the following games have still to take place.

West Brom vs Man Utd - relegation battle away
Man Utd vs Liverpool
West Ham vs Man Utd - relegation battle away
Man Utd vs Man City
Everton vs Man Utd
Southampton vs Man Utd

And then

Chelsea vs Tottenham
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Liverpool vs Tottenham
West Brom vs Tottenham
Stoke vs Tottenham
West Ham vs Tottenham

And then

Fulham vs Everton
Everton vs Arsenal
Sunderland vs Everton
Everton vs Man Utd
Southampton vs Everton
Everton vs Man City

[Nessy76]

That's kind of nonsensical, though. You don't judge a run of 10 games by what that would mean over the course of a season; because it isn't over the course of a season. Whatever a side's finishing record, they will have had better runs and worse runs.

For example, Chelsea are currently on a run of 9 wins and 3 draws in 12 games. City had a run of 11 wins and 1 draw. Arsenal had 8 wins and 1 draw, or 11 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Did none of those happen, because their overall record is below that level?

If any of the top four go on that sort of run now, they will probably win the title. Who? Will Chelsea extend theirs? Will City or Arsenal have a run similar to those they've already enjoyed? Or will we have our best run of the season? (Currently 6 wins and 2 draws).

I think we're already on our best run of the season. Question is how long we can stretch it and how well we recover when the run breaks.

[DonkeyWan]

Just for reference, the Spurs (effectively 7 points back) run in;

Spurs v Cardiff (post EL)
Chelsea v Spurs
Spurs v Arsenal
Spurs v Southampton
Liverpool v Spurs
Spurs v Sunderland
West Brom v Spurs
Spurs v Fulham
Stoke v Spurs
West Ham v Spurs
Spurs v Aston Villa

And lets not forget Everton (effectively 12 points back, but with a game on hand) who have four very winnable games in a row. Note, their next three games are at home, while Liverpool's are all away...

Everton v West Ham
Everton v Cardiff
Everton v Swansea
Fulham v Everton
Everton v Arsenal
Sunderland v Everton
Everton v Man Utd
Southampton v Everton
Everton v Man City
Hull v Everton*

*2 games missing from guardian site, not sure why...

Finally, United (effectively 12 points back). the reason people are still worried by them is because they have an easier runin.

West Brom v Man Utd (post CL)
Man Utd v Liverpool
West Ham v Man Utd (post CL)
Man Utd v Man City
Man Utd v Aston Villa
Newcastle v Man Utd
Man Utd v Hull
Everton v Man Utd
Man Utd v Norwich
Man Utd v Sunderland
Southampton v Man Utd

[cox3100]

I agree. I don't buy this nonsense about our run in being easy.

Southampton away is as tough for us as any of those are. West Ham also the way they play. We'd expect 16pts from 24 (2ppg) the way things are going but that might be a little optimistic as we've run out of easy home games and our away form is treading water. Can we get a point at St Mary's? The great escape against Fulham suggested we might have a bit extra but we just cannot defend!

Southampton (A) (L)
United (A) (D)
Cardiff (A) (W)
Tottenham (H) (D)
West Ham (A) (D)
City (H) (D)
Norwich (A) (W)
Chelsea (H) (D)

^^11pts is probably somewhere between current form and worst case scenario (6pts).

"11pts is probably somewhere between current form and worst case scenario (6pts)"


 

how have you come to that conclusion ?

we have won 6 and drawn 2 of our lasr 8,so current form states we will get more than 11 points.

we are the formteam in the league in 2014.

expect us to win atleast 5-6 of those games

[Hij]

Just for reference, the Spurs (effectively 7 points back) run in;

snip

Exactly mate. Essentially done what I've done.

We're going to draw and lose the majority of our games, but Spurs/Man U and Everton will all go on surging runs of form

[Hij]

West Brom v Man Utd (post CL)
Man Utd v Liverpool
Man Utd v Olympiacos
West Ham v Man Utd (post CL)
Man Utd v Man City
Man Utd v Aston Villa
Newcastle v Man Utd
Man Utd v Hull
Everton v Man Utd
Man Utd v Norwich
Man Utd v Sunderland
Southampton v Man Utd

Four home bankers perhaps, but the rest, and I mean the rest, are not easy whatsoever.

[incredibleL4ever]

We're going to go from 2 points per game throughout the entire season to either relegation form 1 point per game or fucking ridiculous form at 0.55 points per game.

It's like the nearer we come to establishing a position in fourth, the harder the upcoming fixtures become.

There are 5 or 6 very winnable games coming up, and 5 or 6 that are tough.  Our form for about the past 18 months is that we win most of the winnable games * and we win maybe half of the others**, especially at home.  So based on that we have a decent prospect of 6 wins and a few draws and probably will do better than that.  The other teams will also drop points.  As regards 4th place if we get even 18 points, they need 25 from a possible 33.  I just cant see that happening. 



** This season against top 7 teams we P8 W4 D1 L3 Win % = 50. Pts per game = 1.62 - 4 more to play => 6-7 pts
* Against others we P19 W13 D4 L2 Win % = 68. Pts per game = 2.26 - 7 more to play => 16 pts

[redmark]

Four home bankers perhaps, but the rest, and I mean the rest, are not easy whatsoever.

Two of those bankers aren't entirely 'easy', either.

[Red number seven]

Four home bankers perhaps, but the rest, and I mean the rest, are not easy whatsoever.

I wouldn't bet too much on them winning their 4 bankers.

Them catching is is incredibly unlikely.

[incredibleL4ever]

There is no way United will gain 11 points on us in 11 games.  We would need to collapse and they would need to have a complete transformation in form.  No Way.

[Hij]

There are 5 or 6 very winnable games coming up, and 5 or 6 that are tough.  Our form for about the past 18 months is that we win most of the winnable games and we win maybe half of the others, especially at home.  So based on that we have a decent prospect of 6 wins and a few draws and probably will do better than that.  The other teams will also drop points.  As regards 4th place if we get even 18 points, they need 25 from a possible 33.  I just cant see that happening. 

Yep.

Title talk to one side....

Let's say 76 points are needed for fourth. To get 76 points


Spurs need to win 8, draw 1, lose 2. (or better it obviously)

Form required would be something like the following...

Spurs v Cardiff
Chelsea v Spurs
Spurs v Arsenal
Spurs v Southampton
Liverpool v Spurs
Spurs v Sunderland
West Brom v Spurs
Spurs v Fulham
Stoke v Spurs
West Ham v Spurs
Spurs v Aston Villa

Everton need to get 31 points. 10 wins 1 draw. Therefore something like

Everton v West Ham
Everton v Cardiff
Everton v Swansea
Fulham v Everton
Everton v Arsenal
Sunderland v Everton
Everton v Man Utd
Southampton v Everton
Everton v Man City
Hull v Everton*
Newcastle vs Everton (needs to be rearranged)


Man United would also require 31 points. So 10 wins. 1 draw.

West Brom v Man Utd
Man Utd v Liverpool
West Ham v Man Utd
Man Utd v Man City
Man Utd v Aston Villa
Newcastle v Man Utd
Man Utd v Hull
Everton v Man Utd
Man Utd v Norwich
Man Utd v Sunderland
Southampton v Man Utd



Liverpool require 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses to hit that 76 number.

Southampton vs Liverpool
Man Utd vs Liverpool
Cardiff vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Sunderland
Liverpool vs Tottenham
West Ham vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Man City
Norwich vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Newcastle


Some might say the form listed above for Liverpool at 1.81 points per game is too kind. But then look at the runs the others would have to go on to match that.

Take the number down to 73 allowing for one more loss for all the teams, then study the form required by all teams again- just turn ONE of those massive runs of green wins, into a red loss.

But not only do they get afforded one loss (so Man U would need to go win 9, draw 1, lose 1), we could ALSO then lose to any other team bar Spurs themselves, and Tottenham would still need to go 7 wins, 2 draw 2 losses - 2.09 points per game giving them a run in total of 23 points and finishing on 73.  That's a 63% win ratio- Sherwood's current win ratio for Tottenham is 50% (in all comps I think though).

To get 73 we need 17 points.... 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. Looking at our goal difference, then we can match a points total that any of the teams realistically can achieve and still finish ahead on goal difference, we have an extra 0.99 points than the table says.

Look at the run of fixtures they have. Think all of them will draw one more than I've suggested? Then that allows us another draw to our games.

Fuck it. I'm sticking my neck out. We'll finish fourth or higher, quote the shit out of me at the end of the season if we fail to do so.

Because if we don't, we won't deserve it and we'll have thrown it away. Which is what I think most of you are worried about rather than the perceived difficulty of our games. I watched this same team go to Chelsea/Man City - now we might have lost admittedly, but we gave them a game, we competed. We're looking at our fixtures are going on about the difficulty, but it's the Premier League, there are no easy games, everyone bar Southampton and Newcastle arguably have something to play for. Every team we are in the run in with, will have to play these so called teams with something to play for. Even at home, it's still a pitch, with two goals at either end- with teams battling to frustrate and get a point.

The fact we play Newcastle on the last day at home could also be of huge benefit to us come the end of the season- seeing as some of their players will have minds on the World Cup perhaps and they'll be stuck in mid table, perhaps not even able to move up a position.

What if 71 points makes fourth?

LFC can go 5 wins, 6 losses and make 71
THFC  can go 7 wins 4 losses and make 71
EFC and MUFC can go 8 wins 2 draws 1 loss to make 71

[Red number seven]

There is no way United will gain 11 points on us in 11 games.  We would need to collapse and they would need to have a complete transformation in form.  No Way.

And they need 12 anyway. Or a massive goal difference turnaround.

[decky]

The negativity by some on here is frankly astounding. I'm glad our players don't go around thinking like that

[Gus 1855]

Why are we discussing Man Utd in here, they're not going to overtake us.....never!

[professorj]

As I continue to gaze at my sad little spreadsheet of predictions I am more and more inclined to think the Chelsea/Arsenal match will have as much bearing on the final positions as what we do.

Also, to back up what Hij is saying about 'teams with things to play for' I agree about Newcastle being probably very handy to play last game, but by the same token I am going to be cheering for Palace to somehow claw their way to safety before we have to go there too, that would be very nice thank you, glad all over in fact.

[CraigDS]

The negativity by some on here is frankly astounding. I'm glad our players don't go around thinking like that

Rawk needs to schedule some time with Steve Peters for some on here!

[xerxes]

I don't think they will catch us, but I can see them winning the Champions League and leaving us stranded in fourth. It's no more outlandish than what happened in Istanbul

[rocco]

I don't think they will catch us, but I can see them winning the Champions League and leaving us stranded in fourth. It's no more outlandish than what happened in Istanbul

No chance

[Brian Blessed]

I don't think they will catch us, but I can see them winning the Champions League and leaving us stranded in fourth. It's no more outlandish than what happened in Istanbul

Oh yes it is.

[Caston]

I don't think they will catch us, but I can see them winning the Champions League and leaving us stranded in fourth. It's no more outlandish than what happened in Istanbul

Yep, I can see David Moyes beating Barcelona/PSG/Atletico/Bayern/Chelsea over 2 legs. He's such a tactician he will surely be able to grind results against the best teams in the world

[Samie]

I don't think they will catch us, but I can see them winning the Champions League and leaving us stranded in fourth. It's no more outlandish than what happened in Istanbul

You can see them beating Bayern, Barca both Madrid teams and Dortmund? 

[lobsterboy]

Four home bankers perhaps, but the rest, and I mean the rest, are not easy whatsoever.

Certainly not home bankers under the Moyesiah there. They might win the crossing though.