Topic: UK General Election - July 4th, here we go folks.

[Draex]

Peak Caroline Lucas was her idea for an all female cabinet to run the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/11/cabinet-women-no-deal-brexit-caroline-lucas

It's not the worse idea, whilst there are a few examples of evil/corrupt/greedy women it's typically men who do the most damage.

[filopastry]

It's not the worse idea, whilst there are a few examples of evil/corrupt/greedy women it's typically men who do the most damage.

I mean the hit rate on female PMs isn't noticeably better than men 

[Draex]

I mean the hit rate on female PMs isn't noticeably better than men 

Johnson, Trump, Musk, Putin.. Maybe it's because they get into power.

Jacinda Ardern I'd take 100 of her over most of the current crop.

[thaddeus]

It's not the worse idea, whilst there are a few examples of evil/corrupt/greedy women it's typically men who do the most damage.

I think that's primarily because more men occupy the top positions and so have more opportunities to do damage.

The narcissistic or sometimes psychopathic traits that drive a lot of people to the top are bad in any gender.

Thatcher
Le Pen
Braverman
Queen Mary I

All small scale evil compared to evil men throughout history but given the opportunity I'm not sure that some of those would have been able to check themselves.

[Wullie160975]

I can't believe Truss was left off the list of women doing damage (although not necessarily evil).

[Draex]

I can't believe Truss was left off the list of women doing damage (although not necessarily evil).

She's an idiot not evil

[cornishscouser92]

Natalie Elphicke has defected to Labour from the Tories - Dover MP. She isn't standing at the next election.

[filopastry]

Johnson, Trump, Musk, Putin.. Maybe it's because they get into power.

Jacinda Ardern I'd take 100 of her over most of the current crop.

Yeah I meant British politics.

If you took the average male PM and compared to the average of Thatcher, May and Truss, I'm not sure the average man would come out worse 

[Red-Soldier]

A week is a long time in politics: Panesar quits Workers Party after seven days

The former England cricketer Monty Panesar has pulled out of standing for George Galloway’s Workers Party of Great Britain after just one week, after admitting he needs more time to “mature and find my political feet ”.

Panesar had been selected to contest the Ealing Southall seat, currently held by Labour with a majority of 16,084 last Tuesday. But after a series of interviews where he displayed a sketchy understanding of the party’s policies he announced that he would no longer stand.

“I’m a proud Brit who has had the honour to represent my country at the highest level of cricket,” Panesar wrote on the social media platform X. “I now want to do my bit to help others but I recognise I am at the beginning of my journey and still learning about how politics can help people.

“So today I am withdrawing as a General Election candidate for The Workers Party. I realise I need more time to listen, learn and find my political home, one that aligns with my personal and political values.”

“I wish The Workers Party all the best,” he added. “But look forward to taking some time to mature and find my political feet so I am well prepared to deliver my very best when I next run up to the political wicket.”

Panesar had appeared alongside Galloway last Tuesday, having only met him for the first time a day earlier, where the Workers Party leader announced that they would have 500 candidates at the general election. “We are here – now a national force. For Britain, for Gaza, for the working class,” added Galloway, who said he hoped to take more seats off Labour.

But Galloway, who has supported dictators such as Saddam Hussein and Vladimir Putin in the past, quickly caused more outrage last week by saying that homosexual relationships aren’t “normal”.

Speaking to the Guardian last week, Panesar appeared uneasy when confronted with some of Galloway’s comments. “We don’t have to agree on everything,” he said. “I have a mission to help the working class people of this country who have been let down by both Labour and the Tories. I’m not an expert. But I’m learning on the job.”

That learning is still continuing – only without the job of being a parliamentary candidate.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/may/08/a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics-monty-panesar-quits-workers-party-after-seven-days

Probably learned a bit more about Gorgeous George, and his views.

[thaddeus]

A week is a long time in politics: Panesar quits Workers Party after seven days

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/may/08/a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics-monty-panesar-quits-workers-party-after-seven-days

Probably learned a bit more about Gorgeous George, and his views.

I'm glad Panesar saw sense and cut his losses.  A crossroads where he could have doubled down and set himself on a lifetime of ever more demeaning grifting but he chose the chance of redemption.

[Red Beret]

Seems all you have to do in order to mug some of their vote these days is to stick the word "worker" in your party's name. The Tories should try it - Conservative New Workers Together Union Party

[classycarra]

A week is a long time in politics: Panesar quits Workers Party after seven days

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/may/08/a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics-monty-panesar-quits-workers-party-after-seven-days

Probably learned a bit more about Gorgeous George, and his views.

Speaking of that party, just a little heads up to those on the wirral that they're putting a candidate up for Wallasey - some bigot called Phil Bimpson.

anyone wanting to understand him and why he's joined galloway and williamson and their fellow brown shirt admirers might want to check out this thread
https://twitter.com/Steve_Cooke/status/1788181714247819428

[Wabaloolah]

The polls seem to be consistently around the 20 point mark now as a lead, some in the high 20s. Even the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is at 18 points.

There's relatively little movement up or down in either direction, possibly a slight increase in the lead over the last few weeks

[rob1966]

Needs these fuckers gone ASAP - the longer they are in, the more they can steal.

[jillcwhomever]

Speaking of that party, just a little heads up to those on the wirral that they're putting a candidate up for Wallasey - some bigot called Phil Bimpson.

anyone wanting to understand him and why he's joined galloway and williamson and their fellow brown shirt admirers might want to check out this thread
https://twitter.com/Steve_Cooke/status/1788181714247819428

What a cesspool he appears to be, admiring the Nazis. 

Wallasey has been solid Labour for years now, I will be surprised if he gets that much here.

[Statto Red]

What a cesspool he appears to be, admiring the Nazis. 

Wallasey has been solid Labour for years now, I will be surprised if he gets that much here.

Wallasey is my constituency it's been solid Labour since 1992, be amusing if he loses his deposit.

Side note, Ernest Marples would have been my MP back in the day, he was corrupt as they come, he fled to Monaco to avoid paying tax

[jillcwhomever]

Wallasey is my constituency it's been solid Labour since 1992, be amusing if he loses his deposit.

Side note, Ernest Marples would have been my MP back in the day, he was corrupt as they come, he fled to Monaco to avoid paying tax

Lynda Chalker was the one I remembered, she got in for years, before Angela Eagle came in. Marples sounds like a model Tory.

[Dr. Beaker]

Baroness Chalker is still about, unfortunately.

[jillcwhomever]

Baroness Chalker is still about, unfortunately.

I've not heard anything about her thankfully.

[Red Beret]

I think Labour has pretty much peaked in the polls. They seem to have been hovering at just under 44% for some time now. I think it's more a case of how much support the Tories will lose to Reform and the Lib Dems now, and whether they can go much lower.

The current Electoral Calculus poll puts the Tories on 85 seats. Will they go lower? Or will they recover slightly? So much is going to depend on the timing of the election and potential turn out.

[killer-heels]

The current Electoral Calculus poll puts the Tories on 85 seats. Will they go lower? Or will they recover slightly? So much is going to depend on the timing of the election and potential turn out.

The timing will make very little difference. Its all about events now, something has to appear which changes the dial. Ultimately its just biding time and seeing out summer, the election will be in October.

[TheShanklyGates]

I think Labour has pretty much peaked in the polls. They seem to have been hovering at just under 44% for some time now. I think it's more a case of how much support the Tories will lose to Reform and the Lib Dems now, and whether they can go much lower.

The current Electoral Calculus poll puts the Tories on 85 seats. Will they go lower? Or will they recover slightly? So much is going to depend on the timing of the election and potential turn out.

I think the YouGov MRP model will be closer to the actual result than Electoral Calculas which I believe uses a quite crude assumption of uniform swings across the country to predict the result. This is from March, so a little outdated but as you say the polls haven't moved all that much since then:



https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

[oldfordie]

I think Labour has pretty much peaked in the polls. They seem to have been hovering at just under 44% for some time now. I think it's more a case of how much support the Tories will lose to Reform and the Lib Dems now, and whether they can go much lower.

The current Electoral Calculus poll puts the Tories on 85 seats. Will they go lower? Or will they recover slightly? So much is going to depend on the timing of the election and potential turn out.

Obviously turn out matters but do they take tactical voting into account with these predictions?
Am certain it will happen,  this is something the Torys dread, they had no problems when they did a deal with Frottage to stop people from voting for the Brexit party but they don't like it when the tables are turned. I expect them to throw a right tantrum when it happens.
This is another reason why the Torys domination of elections is over. anyone but the Torys is here to stay. they will not win the usual minority seats that has won them a elections for decades.
I take the below a 100 seats predictions as wishful thinking, they also put us in the wrong frame of mind when the results are known, we shouldn't be disappointed with a majority Labour government and say 130 Tory seats, it would be amazing if they only get 85 seats but we should still be very happy with anything below 150 Tory seats.

[Libertine]

@ShippersUnbound
Once again there are snap election rumours. I have been a sceptic every time so far. More importantly, people I trust who are in the loop have told me it's nonsense. This time, those people are silent.

@ShippersUnbound
IMPORTANT: This may still be nonsense, but it feels different



It's happening gif.....

[kavah]

^ yikes - 4 weeks is it? The Tories must be hoping for a good start in the euros 

[reddebs]

^ yikes - 4 weeks is it? The Tories must be hoping for a good start in the euros 

Or they're hoping all the labour voters watching the footy won't be arsed getting off the sofa to go and vote 🤷

[west_london_red]

If the inflation numbers had been better there might have been a chance

[So… Howard Philips]

If the inflation numbers had been better there might have been a chance

But how many voters pay any attention to inflation figures though?

My domestic fuel hasn’t gone down, petrol round the corner for unleaded is £1.56 a litre and every time I shop some food items have still gone up 20p.

[filopastry]

Gives them a chance to boast about falling migration before care homes collapse, inflation coming down (the plan is working)

I mean I'm not convinced but I could see an argument for it, I'm not sure things will get much better for them to be brutally honest, but the big negative for them is why give up power before you have to, if you are almost certain to lose

[TepidT2O]

There will not be an election called.

Why not? Because that would mean making a decision, something at which the government are dreadful at.  It will be in December or January at a point where they have little to no other choice

[cornishscouser92]

There will not be an election called.

Why not? Because that would mean making a decision, something at which the government are dreadful at.  It will be in December or January at a point where they have little to no other choice

Borrowing figures are worse than expected, there is no fiscal room for another NI cut in the autumn. Wouldn't be surprised if they call it to be honest.

[Circa1892]

Those in No10 are just childish.

All they have is the power over speculation - and getting hacks and politicos speculating wildly.

Pricks.

[Ray K]

Peston says he's taking scuttlebutt of an election in July or September seriously because treasury says there's no room for a £10bn tax cut that they planned for the Sept budget. So with no 'giveaway' budget, no bump in polls and they're fucked either way, so may as well call the election sooner rather than later.

[Red Beret]

Sunak insists the election will take place in the second half of the year; but that could still be as early as July, in which case it could be called at almost any point over the next 4-6 weeks.

Fevered speculation does not work in the Tories' favour. It creates uncertainty and unsettles the markets. At some point the Tories have to twig that the situation will only get worse for them the longer they stall, and that waiting another 3-4 months might be the difference between them getting 150 seats or 120 seats - or even less.

Circumstances just aren't going to get any better for them. There is no wiggle room left.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

He basically needs to announce the date of the election today otherwise letting the speculation run is extremely bad politics and will just give more ammunition for the opposition parties to say he's bottling it. He's backed himself into a corner completely unnecessarily

[TepidT2O]

Borrowing figures are worse than expected, there is no fiscal room for another NI cut in the autumn. Wouldn't be surprised if they call it to be honest.

I am notoriously awful at making predictions… this is why I don’t bet!

[west_london_red]

He basically needs to announce the date of the election today otherwise letting the speculation run is extremely bad politics and will just give more ammunition for the opposition parties to say he's bottling it. He's backed himself into a corner completely unnecessarily

He himself hasn’t said anything about announcing an election being called today, that’s speculation coming from journalists who are basing it on anonymous sources, so there’s nothing to hold against Sunak to say he’s bottling it anymore then he was yesterday or last week or last month.

[Crosby Nick]

I am notoriously awful at stating opinions…

Agreed.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

He himself hasn’t said anything about announcing an election being called today, that’s speculation coming from journalists who are basing it on anonymous sources, so there’s nothing to hold against Sunak to say he’s bottling it anymore then he was yesterday or last week or last month.

Number 10 are usually very quick to douse the flames yet they've let the speculation on this one run. According to one journalist they've refused to rule out a 4th July election. Those instructions to not rule it out will have come from Sunak so although he's not said anything directly he could stop it.

[cornishscouser92]

I am notoriously awful at making predictions… this is why I don’t bet!

Cabinet meeting at 4PM, Cameron has come back from Albania to attend. Looks like he's going July 4th.