Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Red Beret]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/BAc8NWMItFs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/BAc8NWMItFs</a>

[Zeb]

Will Jennings and Rob Ford have a look at the polling and suggest some ways that individual pollsters seem to diverge from the industry average. Probably most relevant bit overall though:

Our latest Polling Observatory estimates of voting intentions continue to show the fragmentation of the British party system – but with the Conservative Party having bounced back under a new leader from their low at the time of the European Parliament elections, which were only held due to the previous Prime Minister’s repeated failure to secure Parliamentary support for her Brexit deal. As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%.

The Conservative rebound has clearly come at the expense of the Brexit Party, while support for the other parties has remained rather more stable. Our estimates reveal distinct trends for Labour and the Lib Dems – both parties saw a substantial shift in their support around the time of the European elections, with Lib Dem vote more than doubling and Labour’s falling over 10 points. Unlike the Conservatives – who have recovered at the expense of the Brexit Party – this shift has been sustained. The two parties are now in a new holding pattern, with Labour polling much lower than before and the Liberal Democrats much higher. Changing voter perceptions about the parties’ Brexit stances – with stronger Remainers losing faith in Labour and switching to the Lib Dems – likely has played a role. These dynamics have been reinforced by the Liberal Democrats’ election of a new leader, Jo Swinson, who has attracted considerable media attention and reinforced her party’s clear Remain message, boosted by a string of defections to the party, with a string of Remain-supporting MPs joining the party in recent months from both the Conservatives and Labour.

How this might translate into seats in Westminster remains highly uncertain.  (Our estimates assume that the polling industry as a whole will not be biased in a particular direction – which of course was not the case in 2015, when Conservative support was underestimated, and in 2017, when Labour support was unusually underestimated.)

Southampton Uni blog

[Kekule]

The look of a man who got everything he ever wanted, only to find it's not what he wanted.

[CraigDS]

Looks like a man who lied on his CV to get a high level job, only to realise after he’s got it that he’s got fuck all idea what he’s doing and won’t be able to blag it.

[scouseman]

Just in case anyone missed the speaker speech when the HOC was shut down. "I require no response from you young man" boy I am going to miss the speaker.

starts from 10 hours 47 mins mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iC339_cGt68

[Jiminy Cricket]

Oh we're long past becoming a laughing stock. If it wasn't for America we would be plumb last in the laughing stock states

1st! And, there is still time for the UK to be #1. You just need to believe.

[Chakan]

1st! And, there is still time for the UK to be #1. You just need to believe.

UK will never out do trump.

[thaddeus]

Will Jennings and Rob Ford have a look at the polling and suggest some ways that individual pollsters seem to diverge from the industry average. Probably most relevant bit overall though

...

Labour should be very grateful that they have enough died-in-the-wool Labour 'til I die supporters that they're still the official opposition.

A few months ago though it looked like Labour's non-committal position might work for them, primarily because it allowed them to frustrate Teresa May's negotiations without having to particularly alienate their voter base who are arguably the most split when it comes to Brexit.

In hindsight I'd expect they would have been better off by taking a clear Remain stance from day one and taking their natural position as the Tories' foes.  They would have stopped the Lib Dems ever getting any wind in their sails and the Lib Dems would likely still be hovering around 5% or lower - tarnished by their part in the coalition and without any way to distinguish themselves.

I don't think such a stance would have had much impact on the Tories and the Brexit party eating each other.

If Labour, Lib Dem and Greens can forge a proper alliance with candidates stepping aside then they would likely still gain a majority coalition in what would be a proxy referendum.  The Brexit supporters sufficiently peed off with such a coalition that they became the first in five generations of their family not to vote Labour would likely waste their vote on the Brexit party rather than back the Tories.  As there's not a cat in hell's chance that Corbyn and Swinson could come to such an agreement it's all just piffle in the wind...

Over the cliff we go.

[Andy]

I'll be happy when the c*nt is in a cell with no way out.

let's get a petition going....

[TheShanklyGates]

UK will never out do trump.

Strongly disagree. The US can get Trump out next year. We're stuck with Brexit for the rest of our lives.

[CraigDS]

Strongly disagree. The US can get Trump out next year. We're stuck with Brexit for the rest of our lives.

Tbf the US will be stuck with the legacy of what Trump has done for a very long time.

[Chakan]

Strongly disagree. The US can get Trump out next year. We're stuck with Brexit for the rest of our lives.

It'll take generations to undo what trump has done.

[TheShanklyGates]

It'll take generations to undo what trump has done.

But it can be undone. Brexit is forever.

[Jiminy Cricket]

UK will never out do trump.

Until more recently, I'd have argued that for all the problems with Trump, the damage he was causing was probably more temporary for the US (though, not necessarily at the individual level of course); that Brexit was likely to cause more serious and intergenerational damage to the UK and its citizens. That balance has shifted for me (somewhat), since Trump's new tariffs are beginning to bite, and if not reversed soon, will have large consequences for the US in the longer term. The US's international standing is damaged too - but surely that could be recovered by the selection of a new, rational President. But we do know that the UK (all of it) will be screwed it it leaves the EU at the end of October. Whereas the US (so long as it reverses course soon) will probably be OK. I think.

[Jiminy Cricket]

It'll take generations to undo what trump has done.

In the main - and so long as this tariff fiasco is resolved soon - I think not. Individuals and some families will be forever affected, but not the country as a whole. If Trump gets in again, then it will be a lot more difficult for the US.

[Iska]

Or another type of box with no way out.

Yeah he’d be a great laugh on The Crystal Maze.

[ShakaHislop]

Caught up with Labour leader @jeremycorbyn on the stairs @The_TUC conference (declined interview). He refused to commit to campaigning for Remain in a General Election or 2nd referendum - contrary to senior shadow cabinet colleagues. #brexit

https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1171391881818849280

[filopastry]

https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1171391881818849280

So stupid that Labour are still pissing about on this, pick a position and stick to it. There is little enough trust for them from the more politically engaged Remainers as it is, it wouldn't seem too much to ask for them to come up with a coherent position and stick to it for at most 3 months ahead of the next GE

[Schmidt]

So stupid that Labour are still pissing about on this, pick a position and stick to it. There is little enough trust for them from the more politically engaged Remainers as it is, it wouldn't seem too much to ask for them to come up with a coherent position and stick to it for at most 3 months ahead of the next GE

They did a long time ago as far as I can tell.

[Snail]

They did a long time ago as far as I can tell.

The agenda in this thread is excruciating.

By the way, here's the full text of Corbyn's speech from earlier. Some decent stuff in there, thought it'd be fair to post it.

https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corbyn-speech-tuc-congress/

And in that election we will commit to a public vote with a credible option to leave and the option to remain.

[Zeb]

Labour should be very grateful that they have enough died-in-the-wool Labour 'til I die supporters that they're still the official opposition.

A few months ago though it looked like Labour's non-committal position might work for them, primarily because it allowed them to frustrate Teresa May's negotiations without having to particularly alienate their voter base who are arguably the most split when it comes to Brexit.

In hindsight I'd expect they would have been better off by taking a clear Remain stance from day one and taking their natural position as the Tories' foes.  They would have stopped the Lib Dems ever getting any wind in their sails and the Lib Dems would likely still be hovering around 5% or lower - tarnished by their part in the coalition and without any way to distinguish themselves.

I don't think such a stance would have had much impact on the Tories and the Brexit party eating each other.

If Labour, Lib Dem and Greens can forge a proper alliance with candidates stepping aside then they would likely still gain a majority coalition in what would be a proxy referendum.  The Brexit supporters sufficiently peed off with such a coalition that they became the first in five generations of their family not to vote Labour would likely waste their vote on the Brexit party rather than back the Tories.  As there's not a cat in hell's chance that Corbyn and Swinson could come to such an agreement it's all just piffle in the wind...

Over the cliff we go.

Fundamental problem which keeps showing up is that Labour are triangulating around a 'moderate' position (in reality, still a 'hard' Brexit) which appeals to few yet lack the ability to be seen as compromise ground and some form of stability and alternative for voters to move towards. Can argue rights and wrongs of that perception among voters but it's there and cripples policy messages from the off. Reasonable also to suggest that there's a longer term (post-2005?) trend going on pulling votes away from a binary choice and 2017/18 may have been the blip in that.

There is grounds to suspect that Labour's vote may be undersold still when push comes to shove, although it's no means certain ex-voters disillusioned now will suddenly be enchanted come an election campaign. Agree with you over prospects of formal agreements or similar (informal are already in place - there will be a lot of candidates who exist near enough only on paper in a coming election), so I think it falls on the voters again. Looking back at 2017, it's been done before I suppose. (via Paula Surridge)

[filopastry]

They did a long time ago as far as I can tell.

They werent sounding convinced on a referendum as recently as the aftermath of the European elections in May.

They do now finally seem to have come down in support of a ref in all circumstances (at fucking last!) but still don't seem sure which side they would campaign for in that referendum.

With regards to the Remain alliance, I would say it is a non starter including Labour, as they still haven't quite reached the point of being a "Remain" party, and equally if you are trailing the most radical left wing manifesto in decades, its safe to say the LDs aren't able to ignore those significant policy differences to form an alliance, plus it opens up the obvious attack line "Vote LibDem get Corbyn"

[Cpt_Reina]

I am sure that the smart play for Labour ahead of a GE which is soon to come to pass would be to play in to Tories and Tory press hands by coming out as confirmed to be in favour of remain or revoke or whatever remainers want them to be.

Because lets face it there's absolutely no chance that all of the Tory friendly press will rabidly paint Corbyn as a loony Marxist fundamentalist who is attempting to ignore our democracy and the will of the people via a democratic vote. Communism would be at the door!

It would be giving them exactly what they want and be incredibly damaging to him and the party, because they'd get absolute slaughtered relentlessly in the media and online for it, surely people can see this?

[classycarra]

The agenda in this thread is excruciating.

As is your bad generalising about it

[oldfordie]

You have to wonder what the Tories would do if they were placed in a similar position as Labour are in now.
Exaggeration to prove the point, Corbyn threatening to Nationalise everything. buying every 2nd home under compulsory purchase and turning it into council accommodation, turning the country into a communist direction.with 10s of millions singing oh Jeremy Corbyn. all the polls telling us Labour are going to win a majority.
Labour the party with most MPs but no majority so they are screaming for a GE to win a majority. Tories+SNP etc united in stopping Corbyn but hard to see them forming a coalition.
Would the Tories etc give Corbyn this GE or would they tell the country he's far too dangerous for us to risk a GE right now, we will form a government till 2022 and hope the public can see just how dangerous Labour are right now.
This is all never going to happen of course, the point is all the parties hold power,Johnson has gone mad,his whole plan is to whip up a frenzy to ride into the next GE. am sure Cummings master plan never took into account 1 thing, Labour would refuse him a GE.
I wish parties would use Johnsons actions over the last few weeks as justification for not holding a GE right now. at least it might make people sit up and take notice just how dangerous Johnsons Tory party is.
The Labour party, SNP etc all telling the country we can't risk handing power to these maniacs, it would be irresponsible to risk handing power to these maniacs until we are convinced they are fit to govern. we are all going to work together and remain in power until 2022.
I doubt this will actually happen but all the parties should at least make the argument even if they know it won't happen.

[Zeb]

I am sure that the smart play for Labour ahead of a GE which is soon to come to pass would be to play in to Tories and Tory press hands by coming out as confirmed to be in favour of remain or revoke or whatever remainers want them to be.

Because lets face it there's absolutely no chance that all of the Tory friendly press will rabidly paint Corbyn as a loony Marxist fundamentalist who is attempting to ignore our democracy and the will of the people via a democratic vote. Communism would be at the door!

It would be giving them exactly what they want and be incredibly damaging to him and the party, because they'd get absolute slaughtered relentlessly in the media and online for it, surely people can see this?

I'm not sure Corbyn and the party can be damaged any further. I suppose there are new lows to find. Personally think Labour's position is perfectly reasonable but they're not going to be able to sell it. There does need to be a reasonable 'leave' offer to oppose 'remain' in a referendum. The government at the time will have to decide what that is. That's sane and logical and perfectly correct. It's just at odds with how Labour are perceived by a big chunk of the electorate as hardly being about compromise and bringing people together and such things.

[Snail]

I am sure that the smart play for Labour ahead of a GE which is soon to come to pass would be to play in to Tories and Tory press hands by coming out as confirmed to be in favour of remain or revoke or whatever remainers want them to be.

Because lets face it there's absolutely no chance that all of the Tory friendly press will rabidly paint Corbyn as a loony Marxist fundamentalist who is attempting to ignore our democracy and the will of the people via a democratic vote. Communism would be at the door!

It would be giving them exactly what they want and be incredibly damaging to him and the party, because they'd get absolute slaughtered relentlessly in the media and online for it, surely people can see this?

I guess the idea is that Labour shouldn't "want" the votes of people who want to Leave - a view that I sympathise with, but not one that's going to win an election anytime soon.

[Yorkykopite]

So stupid that Labour are still pissing about on this, pick a position and stick to it. There is little enough trust for them from the more politically engaged Remainers as it is, it wouldn't seem too much to ask for them to come up with a coherent position and stick to it for at most 3 months ahead of the next GE

"He sat on the fence for so long that the iron entered into his soul." I think that's a quote about Lloyd George, who was just as slippery as Corbyn when it came to stating a position on a divisive issue.

Why on earth does Corbyn think he can appeal to all sides on the European issue by saying nothing? It's inept.

"We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run over." That's Nye Bevan.

[filopastry]

"He sat on the fence for so long that the iron entered into his soul." I think that's a quote about Lloyd George, who was just as slippery as Corbyn when it came to stating a position on a divisive issue.

Why on earth does Corbyn think he can appeal to all sides on the European issue by saying nothing? It's inept.

"We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run over." That's Nye Bevan.

The problem on Brexit as well is as it has dragged on it certainly seems like positions have become more entrenched, since this happened my own personal view has migrated from Soft Norway-style Brexit to respect the result in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, to "People's vote" to "fuck it lets just revoke this pile of shit if we can use a GE as democratic cover".

I will go on the PV march in October but personally am moving away from having another dodgy as fuck referendum as the endgame.

[Qston]

So stupid that Labour are still pissing about on this, pick a position and stick to it. There is little enough trust for them from the more politically engaged Remainers as it is, it wouldn't seem too much to ask for them to come up with a coherent position and stick to it for at most 3 months ahead of the next GE

This is going to be their problem. It looks like they will give full blooded support for a 2nd referendum, and that may even extend to them supporting remain. However, fundamentally their problem remains peoples trust of Corbyn and whether he will actually follow through on those promises. It is why I would, at the moment, vote Lib Dem. I am just astonished at the size of the open goal Labour are missing. A proper, well organised and sensible opposition with relatively moderate and electable leader would absolutely demolish the Tories at a GE.

[Cpt_Reina]

This is going to be their problem. It looks like they will give full blooded support for a 2nd referendum, and that may even extend to them supporting remain. However, fundamentally their problem remains peoples trust of Corbyn and whether he will actually follow through on those promises. It is why I would, at the moment, vote Lib Dem. I am just astonished at the size of the open goal Labour are missing. A proper, well organised and sensible opposition with relatively moderate and electable leader would absolutely demolish the Tories at a GE.

Why do you think he wouldn't?

[Snail]

"He sat on the fence for so long that the iron entered into his soul." I think that's a quote about Lloyd George, who was just as slippery as Corbyn when it came to stating a position on a divisive issue.

Why on earth does Corbyn think he can appeal to all sides on the European issue by saying nothing? It's inept.

"We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run over." That's Nye Bevan.

There's been countless posts in this thread - and articles in the media - bemoaning the loss of centrist politics, the polarisation of a Labour party that's moved left and a Conservative party that's moved right. For weeks and months Labour were getting slated for not committing to a second referendum, and now they're getting slated for not running a general election campaign that's centred solely around Remain.

Basically what people want to see is a general election that's Tories = Leave and Labour = Remain, which is pretty... polarising. I think that'd do a lot more harm than good, and I can see why they're not committing.

I (obviously) don't share as harsh an opinion of Corbyn as many others on here have, though I certainly have plenty of issues with the way some things have been handled. I rather like the idea of a more left wing Labour party, but I accept that I'm in the minority. I think whatever Corbyn does, the goalposts are always going to be shifted and it'll never be good enough. Better just to sack him off and go with what most people want, I've accepted that my politics aren't getting anywhere in this country.

[classycarra]

Why do you think he wouldn't?

Might be ancient history, but do you not think that being voted into his position talking up respecting conference and party democracy and then not following that conference agreed remain policy might have affected some peoples trust?

[ShakaHislop]

They werent sounding convinced on a referendum as recently as the aftermath of the European elections in May.

They do now finally seem to have come down in support of a ref in all circumstances (at fucking last!) but still don't seem sure which side they would campaign for in that referendum.

With regards to the Remain alliance, I would say it is a non starter including Labour, as they still haven't quite reached the point of being a "Remain" party, and equally if you are trailing the most radical left wing manifesto in decades, its safe to say the LDs aren't able to ignore those significant policy differences to form an alliance, plus it opens up the obvious attack line "Vote LibDem get Corbyn"

That's one issue with their Brexit policy (the party's policy to be to support Remain in all scenarios, as it's the best deal/relationship available with the EU) but I also don't like all this faffing around and wooly language about a "credible" Leave option. May's deal may not have been popular in the House of Commons but that does not make it unviable to be on the ballot paper of another referendum in which the public, not just MPs will vote.

Any, supposedly "credible" alternative that a Labour government negotiates will have the same Withdrawal Agreement as May's deal has and Labour's alternative proposals for the future relationship are back-of-the-fag-packet stuff that can hardly be called credible themselves. Labour wants to leave the single market, again like May, but also wants "alignment" with the SM. It also wants to be in a customs union with the EU but one that gives the UK, which will be a third country after Brexit, a say on EU trade policy. Is that the unicorns I hear in the background?

IMO, Labour should drop the idea of reopening negotiations with the EU and decide whether they're going to campaign for Remain vs the WA+May's political declaration, or no deal.

[Snail]

This is going to be their problem. It looks like they will give full blooded support for a 2nd referendum, and that may even extend to them supporting remain. However, fundamentally their problem remains peoples trust of Corbyn and whether he will actually follow through on those promises. It is why I would, at the moment, vote Lib Dem. I am just astonished at the size of the open goal Labour are missing. A proper, well organised and sensible opposition with relatively moderate and electable leader would absolutely demolish the Tories at a GE.

Lib Dems, famously good at holding promises.

[oldfordie]

This is going to be their problem. It looks like they will give full blooded support for a 2nd referendum, and that may even extend to them supporting remain. However, fundamentally their problem remains peoples trust of Corbyn and whether he will actually follow through on those promises. It is why I would, at the moment, vote Lib Dem. I am just astonished at the size of the open goal Labour are missing. A proper, well organised and sensible opposition with relatively moderate and electable leader would absolutely demolish the Tories at a GE.

Ive lost track of Labours stance, I do remember Johnson mocking Corbyn on his stance yesterday and I expect it to happen going into a GE if Labour don't start finding arguments to defend their stance.
Johnson said Corbyns saying he will go and negotiate a deal with the EU and then campaign against that deal in a referendum. it's very hard to find a defence.

[classycarra]

Johnson said Corbyns saying he will go and negotiate a deal with the EU and then campaign against that deal in a referendum. it's very hard to find a defence.

Corbyn hasn't said that, he's not standing for anything at the minute. But McDonnell and THornberry (and I think Abbott) have said they would campaign for Remain

[filopastry]

Lib Dems, famously good at holding promises.

You can certainly argue with their priorities in the coalition negotiations but nobody going into a coalition government as the junior partner is ever likely to be able to deliver much of their manifesto, the same would happen in the (unlikely) event the LDs went into power with either of the major parties after the next GE.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Just in case anyone missed the speaker speech when the HOC was shut down. "I require no response from you young man" boy I am going to miss the speaker.

starts from 10 hours 47 mins mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iC339_cGt68

Thanks for that. I missed it last night (was watching Parliament TV, which closed before this).

A few things struck me:

1) Although the whole thing is a bit of theatrical bollocks, and I think I would prefer if all this stuff was knocked on the head, I was disappointed by the amount of chatter and disrespect for the proceedings by those MPs chattering away, shouting random stuff (as though drunk), etc. when Black Rod entered Parliament. As I said, I think it all a load of bollocks, but I would not behave that way.

2) I assume that Bercow's mini-speech before being led away is highly unusual (possibly unparalleled) - yes?

3) No Tories (or none that I could see) were there to shake the speaker's hand when he returned to the chamber.

[ShakaHislop]

There's been countless posts in this thread - and articles in the media - bemoaning the loss of centrist politics, the polarisation of a Labour party that's moved left and a Conservative party that's moved right. For weeks and months Labour were getting slated for not committing to a second referendum, and now they're getting slated for not running a general election campaign that's centred solely around Remain.

Basically what people want to see is a general election that's Tories = Leave and Labour = Remain, which is pretty... polarising. I think that'd do a lot more harm than good, and I can see why they're not committing.

I (obviously) don't share as harsh an opinion of Corbyn as many others on here have, though I certainly have plenty of issues with the way some things have been handled. I rather like the idea of a more left wing Labour party, but I accept that I'm in the minority. I think whatever Corbyn does, the goalposts are always going to be shifted and it'll never be good enough. Better just to sack him off and go with what most people want, I've accepted that my politics aren't getting anywhere in this country.

There's quite a few Corbyn critics, such as myself, who aren't hostile to the general idea of Labour moving more to the left compared to say the New Labour days. It's the way that goal has been pursued during the Corbyn era and the consequences that have arisen from it are what I, and others have a problem with.

I'd have little issue with voting for a Labour Party that wanted to renationalise the trains as long as Labour was still a pro-EU party and led by a leader who was personally pro-EU, personally tolerable and who seemed electable. Me pragmatically supporting the Lib Dems because I don't believe Labour is a pro-EU party, nor that Corbyn meets any of those criteria doesn't make me less left-wing, I believe.