I'll kick us off lads can't wait for the best week of the year and about to head down to Cheltenham!
14:10 - Rouge Vif - I think this years Arkle is made for an outsider. As much as I love the horses at the front of the market I can't be with any of them at the prices. Notebook is a lovely horse and has made into a fine chaser. But I can't get away from two things that happened at Leopardstown the last day. Firstly how he behaved in the preliminaries, Rachel Blackmore did an amazing job of regaining control of him after he bolted before the start, given the difference in crowd size and how on top of horses spctators are at Cheltenham I would be very worried how he will take it all in. Secondly he had a tendency to jump right, this is picky as it wasn't overly to the right but at the price he is I have to be picky. On the old course the gradient is far stronger than the new, jumping right at the wrong time on that course can all but end your chances. Cash Back is another horse I love, but given everything I have witten about Notebook he still couldn't beat him. Fakir D'Oudaries is the best jumper in the race, however, he lacks the scope of others and when push comes to shove and he needs a really big one I think he may get found out. Add to all these things that all these three like to front run and we could be in for a burn up up front. Of the Englsh contingent I'm struggling to see the support for Brewinupastorm. He's only had two runs over fences and hasn't been seen since mid November. His jumping wasn't Arkle worthy that day and although I'm sure he will have done plenty of schooling at home it's a big leap of faith to say it's up to standard now in race conditions. The one I keep landing on is
Rouge Vif. He is by no mean a normal Arkle winner but this is by no means a normal Arkle. He had a quiet start over fences before being given a wind op and since then has run two mighty races. He was beaten in his first run after the op at Kempton by Global Citizen but I saw an interview with Harry Whittington in which he says he needed the first run to show him his wind was sorted. This lead to an electric performance at Warwick the last day (a track that is a great trial for Cheltenham) and he swatted Nube Negra to the side who is a nice yardstick. I think he's a cracking bet at 16/1.
2:50 - Mister Malarkey - I think this fella is on a massive upward curve. Physically he reminds me so much of Native River and he's starting to jump like him too. Things didn't go right for him at the start of the season and the yard seemed genuinely baffled as to why as they think a lot of him. The fact they were expecting him to win good Handicaps at Ascot speaks volumes. They freshened him up over Christmas and I thought he was excellent the last day at Kempton. If he jumps round Cheltenham like he did that day he will be there or thereabouts at the finish, the 14/1 currently available is a steal.
2:50 - Kildisart - Leads me very nicely to my second selection in the same race in Kildisart. Ben Pauling's yard were in awful awful form in the early part of the season leading to sub par runs from this fella. Since then I've suspected they will ready him for a crack at this. His race where he beat Mister Malarkey at Aintree last season was class from both of them (I was on Malarkey
) and I've followed both horses since. He had a lovely prep for this the last day in the race won by Malarkey. Something I have noticed with him this season is he has been particularly slow through the air in his jumping. I was delighted to see cheekipieces applied and horses running in first time headgear in this race have a great record, 9/1 will do for me.
3:30 - Darasso - Bit of a punt here but this Champion Hurdle is woeful, I could make a case for half the field, but this fella shouldn't be 50/1. Mark Walsh on board for JP sprung a shock last season on Espoir D'allen and I think thi fella might surprise a few for Joseph in this.
4:50 - Hold The Note - Same connections won this with Mister Whittaker a couple of years back and I feel they have one primed to go very close again here. I absolutely loved his trial in the Towton the last day and he shaped as though 2.5 miles over Cheltenham would really suit. His strongest attribute for me is his jumping and that is what will win him the day here, a great bet at 8/1.
5:30 - Newtidem 10/1 & Ravenhill 6/1 - As always in this jockey selections narrow the field down for you and I've gone for two master in Codd & O'Neill. Ravenhill's jumping would worry me, but then Tiger Roll ploughed through half of these fences after doing so in the Kerry Nation just like Ravenhill, I backed him and that turned out ok
the secomnd is Newtide. This he's overpriced here and glad he has a proper horseman on his back. Looked otpaced in the Towton but was tidy and careful over his fences which I like here. It was only his second chase and I think he will have learned a lot that day, I expect a big run here.
