Hello all,
Out of respect for Phase of Play, I thought I might add some post-Stoke positives to mix of information reminding us this season has been remarkable.
Wins - 13 after 21 Games
(3) One Goal Wins: Stoke (H), Villa (A), & Man U (H)
(5) Two Goal Wins: Sunderland (A), C Palace (H), Cardiff (H), Hull (H), Stoke (A)
(2) Three Goal Wins: West Brom (H), West Ham (H)
(2) Four Goal Wins: Fulham (H), Norwich (H)
(1) Five Goal Wins: Tottenham
**** Only 3/13 of our victories have ended in one goal differentials. This compares to 6/16 last year. For makers of beta blockers, and heart defibrillators of Merseyside, it is notable that in the Rodgers era in the EPL that when we win, 69% of the time, it is by two goals or more. It is important to remember one of the herculean tasks handed to our manager was to find more ways to score. In just under half of all of our victories 14/29, we win by three or more goals. However, there is more here than just game to game goal differential. Lets take a look at goal frequency, especially after scoring 5 at Stoke and winning for the first time in the EPL era. Goals scored per game in the Rodgers era is another area to witness our growth as a reference point.
LFC Goal Frequencies
Zero goals: 2012-13 (eight) - Record in those games 0-3-5
2013-14 (two) - Record in those games 0-2-0 10
One goal: 2012-13 (twelve)- Record in those games 3-6-3
2013-14 (six) - Record in those games 3-3-0 18
Two goals: 2012-13 (six) - Record in those games 1-0-5
2013-14 (three) - Record in those games 1-0-2 9
Three goals 2012-13 (six) - Record in those games 6-0-0
2013-14 (four) - Record in those games 3-0-1 10
Four goals 2012-13 (two) - Record in those games 2-0-0
2013-14 (three) - Record in those games 3-0-0 5
Five goals: 2012-13 (three) - Record in those games 3-0-0
2013-14 (three) - Record in those games 3-0-0 6
Six goals: 2012-13 (one) - Record in those games 1-0-0 1
2013-14 (0)
What I pull from the data is that in Rodgers' 51 games as manager (and the initial sample is probably a bit skewed considering our poor start to the 2012-13 season), we have not lost an EPL game when we have scored two goals or more. This has happened 31 out of our 51 games thus far or 61%. In this world and in most leagues, goals = results/wins. Also, I think this points an unusual stat that while we have played many close games, the results tend not to be one goal games (except in the first three games of the season). We have gotten better at being more lethal against teams and not letting them hang around and nick a result as well.
While our record is closer to the .500 mark in getting a result when we score only one goal, as many have noted here when we get one, there is usually more coming. I think this is a tremendously positive trend, especially when you consider that five shutouts for LFC occurred before the January 2013 transfer window (before we got Sturridge and Coutinho).
I think this puts into context the issue of the recent criticism of LFC's defense needing to get better in some respects. One might be able to make the case that as long as we are able to score goals (at least 2 per game), then our record has proven that we will be fine. As so many have written about recently, I am not sure our defense needs improving as much as getting our midfield sorted out. The games where we completely dominated midfield have relieved pressure on the back four and have provided confidence for our attacking players. ElstonGunn and Phase of Play have written about this extensively, so I will defer to them on this. However, at current rate we are scoring so much that we might focus on how to keep this trend going rather than be too hyper-vigilant about defensive errors. It is also worth a mention that our away scoring is pretty effective (24 goals of 51 total). As we move into the bottom half of the table away, we can be confident in our home and away scoring. Many of these clubs have really struggled where our leading scorer Suarez (22) has more or tied with 8 of bottom 10 clubs. Suarez will expect to pass West Brom's team total next (23) and has Swansea in his sights (26).
This brings me to our last few uplifting positives. The schedule notwithstanding (only playing 2 top 10 clubs on the road - Southampton and the Mancs), we have not conceded a re-start goal in four games. Some here may think, "so what we gave up too many of them previously", but there has been some improvement, especially since the sides we have played against since Kompany's header: Chelsea, Hull, Oldham (FA), and Stoke are pretty good on restarts. This has got to be seen as a positive.
Lastly, we may bring in a reinforcement or two, which help us gain, keep, and dominate the ball --- making us damn difficult to beat. Also, we have yet to have our best team healthy yet or to even know what that looks like (even with the events at White Hart Lane, home to Norwich). I am not sure we have seen the foursome of Sturridge, Suarez, Sterling and Coutinho or SAS-SAC at full force. While the experiment of Gerrard at holding mid might change the dynamic, this author's thesis is supported by the data ------ 2 goals means a sure result and 3 is a sure victory.
Of course Twain reminds about lies, damn lies, and stats, and the Stoke game sure did not feel like a 5 goal scorcher from an offensive juggernaut, more of roller coaster really. However, when we read the nervy posts of a few supporters worrying about the next games' result, remind them of how well we do in getting a result when we score 1 (50%) 2 (100%) and 3 or more (3 pts.) under the Rodgers regime. This is how it should be really, but as the season unwinds, we are rooting for open play, tired legs for defenders in the league and to keep SAS going! With so many games left at Anfield and more goals to be bagged, I believe our offensive output will get us to Champions League Football and give us a chance to keep Suarez, recruit another world class midfield and give Stevie a chance at the title next year. As we move to next year, I think the next big step for the club will be how well do we do in 1 goal games against top sides. However, I am not sure we have to focus on this aspect just yet as we want to install an attractive, attacking brand of football, get the money/recruiting allure from making the Champions league and expand Anfield to generate more revenue. By next summer, if we have done all of this, we will be well on our way.