Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[killer-heels]

It’s worth remembering that this keeps Ukraine in the fight, it’s not going to suddenly turn the tide (I’m not sure why will to be honest), but you’ve gotta be in it to win it and this at least keeps Ukraine in it.

I think the consensus is that they wont be winning anything. Its now all about ceding as little of Ukraine to Russia as they can.

[Red-Soldier]

I think the consensus is that they wont be winning anything. Its now all about ceding as little of Ukraine to Russia as they can.

Yep.

[Yorkykopite]

I think the consensus is that they wont be winning anything. Its now all about ceding as little of Ukraine to Russia as they can.

The consensus is often wrong in war. Historians know this. Stalemates that turn out not to be stalemates. Tipping points - in terms of strategy, morale, politics - that cannot be predicted. So long as Ukraine is funded and properly supplied with arms it will probably endure longer than Russia in the battlefield. 

[west_london_red]

The consensus is often wrong in war. Historians know this. Stalemates that turn out not to be stalemates. Tipping points - in terms of strategy, morale, politics - that cannot be predicted. So long as Ukraine is funded and properly supplied with arms it will probably endure longer than Russia in the battlefield. 

I can see where KH is coming from and sadly think she might be right, the other worry of course is US elections in November and weather there are any more aid packages in the future because this package takes US aid to about $150 billion, the rest of the world doesn’t even come close to that if you add it all together and if it’s just a war of attrition Ukraine with European support but without US support will struggle unless something drastic changes like the midget in the Kremlin dies but he’s been dying since the war started.

[rhysd]

I think the consensus is that they wont be winning anything. Its now all about ceding as little of Ukraine to Russia as they can.

Depends.

Russia can't keep up these equipment losses forever. Sensible sources says 18-24 months at the current rate before he's gone through his Soviet stockpiles of machines.

Plus at some point it is going to become too expensive for Putin if he gets stuck there for years.

Could be another Afghanistan where they stagnate for a decade then have to go.

Even if there is an official peace deal, Ukraine will just make it into a guerrilla war. Never going to be a peaceful occupation for Putin.

[Red Beret]

It's gotten way too close.

<a href="https://youtube.com/v/4fWWb35sZwE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://youtube.com/v/4fWWb35sZwE</a>

All because Mike Johnson decided to piss about for six months, tying Ukrainian aid to border controls. Europe needs to pull it's fucking finger out and all.

[Schmidt]

The challenge for Ukraine right now is the glide bombs. It's another huge stockpile that Russia have recently tapped into, and while one of their bombers was shot down recently Ukraine still don't really seem to have a reliable answer to them. More anti-air might help but the sheer volume of bombs available makes it difficult.

There was talk of Ukraine getting access to similar stockpiles of bombs, with much more accurate glide kits, but as usual they haven't arrived or at least not in significant enough numbers.

The hope is as above, Russia can keep pouring equipment into the battlefield for now, but at some point they'll either have to severely ration it or they'll risk running out completely (except for what small numbers they're producing).

With Russia pushing hard I think Ukraine will want to use the new funding and equipment to sit back and just destroy as many Russians and as much equipment as possible, with as few losses as possible. I don't think they should be thinking of any major offensives (unless an opportunity appears like the Kharkiv offensive) until Russia have burned themselves out.

[rhysd]

The challenge for Ukraine right now is the glide bombs. It's another huge stockpile that Russia have recently tapped into, and while one of their bombers was shot down recently Ukraine still don't really seem to have a reliable answer to them. More anti-air might help but the sheer volume of bombs available makes it difficult.

There was talk of Ukraine getting access to similar stockpiles of bombs, with much more accurate glide kits, but as usual they haven't arrived or at least not in significant enough numbers.

The hope is as above, Russia can keep pouring equipment into the battlefield for now, but at some point they'll either have to severely ration it or they'll risk running out completely (except for what small numbers they're producing).

With Russia pushing hard I think Ukraine will want to use the new funding and equipment to sit back and just destroy as many Russians and as much equipment as possible, with as few losses as possible. I don't think they should be thinking of any major offensives (unless an opportunity appears like the Kharkiv offensive) until Russia have burned themselves out.

 

Hoping that the arrival of the F-16 can help with the glide bomb issue.

Max reported range of the cheap glide bombs they are using is 80km and is probably more likely 60-70km.

If the F-16 are equipped with the AIM-120D this has a lethal range of 160km. Which should at the very least hugely cut down the use of the cheap bombs by Russia.

It'll depend if the Americans supply the longest range missiles.

I wish Urkaine could get some of the JAS Gripen Swedish jets.

There's been talk of it but they can carry the MBDA Meteor. Which has a range of 200km.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

I can see where KH is coming from and sadly think she might be right, the other worry of course is US elections in November and weather there are any more aid packages in the future because this package takes US aid to about $150 billion, the rest of the world doesn’t even come close to that if you add it all together and if it’s just a war of attrition Ukraine with European support but without US support will struggle unless something drastic changes like the midget in the Kremlin dies but he’s been dying since the war started.

If you combine EU institutions with the extra country specific aid, the EU isn't far off, it's not a fair comparison by country unless you're using GDP percentage as a measure.

This is from January but I am not sure how reliable Statista are.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

[WhereAngelsPlay]

I think the consensus is that they wont be winning anything. Its now all about ceding as little of Ukraine to Russia as they can.

They pushed them back from the gates of Kyiv, with the right weapons they can push them all the way out.

[rhysd]

They pushed them back from the gates of Kyiv, with the right weapons they can push them all the way out.

A really big thing will be a reliable supply of ammo.

If they can keep Ukraine stocked up there it will make a huge difference.

[stoa]

If you combine EU institutions with the extra country specific aid, the EU isn't far off, it's not a fair comparison by country unless you're using GDP percentage as a measure.

This is from January but I am not sure how reliable Statista are.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

This is the tracker from Kiel University in Germany and it seems to be the same or similar numbers: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

The difference is mainly that Europa has given more financial aid (or at least committed to a lot of it), whereas the US have focussed on military aid, which is kind of to be expected. A lot of the focus is on military aid for obvious reason, but then again financial aid is also pretty important.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

This is the tracker from Kiel University in Germany and it seems to be the same or similar numbers: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

The difference is mainly that Europa has given more financial aid (or at least committed to a lot of it), whereas the US have focussed on military aid, which is kind of to be expected. A lot of the focus is on military aid for obvious reason, but then again financial aid is also pretty important.

The "Institutions" have only given $5b of military aid but Germany alone have given $17b, more is needed but those Christofascist c*nts are the reason why they've been struggling.

[Libertine]

What's hilariously idiotic is that the very people who were...

- absolutely wrong about the very possibility of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
- absolutely wrong about the Ukrainian morale and popular support of national independence and sovereignty
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability and readiness to even survive the attack's first hours, stay functional, and take the fight
- absolutely wrong about the inevitable fall of Kyiv within 48 to 72 hours
- absolutely wrong about the possibility of Western defense aid supplies (and about every single weapon type and class provided), as well as the assistance's potential to make a difference on battlefields
- absolutely wrong about the possibility of a Ukrainian victory at Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv etc
- absolutely wrong about Russia's ability to seize Odesa via a grand landing operation
- absolutely wrong about the general course of the war, which has recently entered the third year, instead of being over with complete Russian victory within between 10 and 15 days
- absolutely wrong about the Ukrainian sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability to master and effectively use Western artillery/rocket systems/radars/armored vehicles/air defense/missiles/jets/whatever
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability to survive two winter seasons under Russian missile attacks on critical infrastructure
- absolutely wrong about Europe 'freezing to death without Russian gas'
- absolutely wrong about the coming of a global nuclear holocaust should Ukraine even think about fighting back,
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine collapsing by spring 2022/summer 2022/winter 2022/spring 2023/summer  2023/winter 2024/to be continued
- absolutely wrong about Russia's verified and confirmed losses (verified and confirmed) not seen since World War II
- absolutely wrong about Russia's own military production
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability to retake Kherson, Kharkiv Oblast, northern Donbas, in all 50% of the territory lost in the full-scale Russian invasion
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine's drone program and  Ukraine delivering strikes against Russian oil refineries, arms factories (even the Kremlin!!) and effectively disabling Russia's Black Sea Fleet
- absolutely wrong about European supplies of artillery munitions
- absolutely wrong about the new U.S. defense aid bill
- absolutely wrong about Ukraine still being in control of over 80% of its territory after over 2 years of a full-scale war with Russia, one of the largest military powers in history...

... and the very same people are now trying to play the poker face, pretend they are still *in the know*, and keep saying Ukraine will collapse anyway.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1781804093486330106

[Schmidt]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1781804093486330106

That 144 character limit is long fucking gone isn't it?

[rhysd]

That 144 character limit is long fucking gone isn't it?

You can type what you want if you give scummy Elon $8 a month.

[Red Beret]

The war's not going to be won on the battlefield. It can only be won when Putin is overthrown. And he'll only be overthrown when the Russian government realises that the war is unwinnable.

A Ukrainian soldier is worth a hundred poorly equipped Russian conscripts. But Russia has more poorly equipped conscripts than Ukraine has soldiers. They're getting ready to throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine in the hopes of breaking the lines before Ukraine can replenish its war material. Ukraine needs every bomb, bullet, shell and missile they can lay hands on.

There's too much hand wringing going on around the world, especially in Europe. Leaders don't want to admit, seemingly to themselves or each other, that we are in defacto WW3. The only chance to stop it becoming actual WW3 is to get our economies on a war footing and start churning out material faster than the enemy.

Only when Russia is fought to a standstill and finds itself being driven back will peace become a viable option.

[Schmidt]

The war's not going to be won on the battlefield. It can only be won when Putin is overthrown. And he'll only be overthrown when the Russian government realises that the war is unwinnable.

A Ukrainian soldier is worth a hundred poorly equipped Russian conscripts. But Russia has more poorly equipped conscripts than Ukraine has soldiers. They're getting ready to throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine in the hopes of breaking the lines before Ukraine can replenish its war material. Ukraine needs every bomb, bullet, shell and missile they can lay hands on.

There's too much hand wringing going on around the world, especially in Europe. Leaders don't want to admit, seemingly to themselves or each other, that we are in defacto WW3. The only chance to stop it becoming actual WW3 is to get our economies on a war footing and start churning out material faster than the enemy.

Only when Russia is fought to a standstill and finds itself being driven back will peace become a viable option.

Politicians are scared of escalation but doing nothing just encourages Russia to escalate things themselves. Ramp up production and Russia/China/NK/Iran all start to think twice about their chances.

[PaulF]

We haven't enough money to fix our potholes and have MPs needing money to get out of flats and away from bad people. No way do we have money to fight a war.

[killer-heels]

We haven't enough money to fix our potholes and have MPs needing money to get out of flats and away from bad people. No way do we have money to fight a war.

We dont have a choice.

[west_london_red]

The "Institutions" have only given $5b of military aid but Germany alone have given $17b, more is needed but those Christofascist c*nts are the reason why they've been struggling.

Disagree, all of this was predictable a long time ago, some Republicans were hostile to Ukraine to begin with, popularity of the war was always going to decline in the US after spending eye watering amounts of money on a foreign war far away from them, none of this was a surprise, what we should have seen is Europe using the US military aid as a stop gap to ramp up its own production of weapons, yet by most accounts were still not in a position where we can supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs two years into the war.

[stoa]

The "Institutions" have only given $5b of military aid but Germany alone have given $17b, more is needed but those Christofascist c*nts are the reason why they've been struggling.

The issue is though that the EU doesn't have a military and they have limited responsibility in terms of defence or military. That is all with the individual member states. It was the same with Covid. EU just have not authority to make decisions about health issues, that's mostly down to the individual member states. That's why you had a clusterfuck of regulations across Europes and even borders being closed again. The EU did what they could do during Covid and that was try and coordinate what's going on between countries and try to get them all together in various efforts like vaccine development and later vaccine purchase. It's the same with defence. The EU has a coordinating role, but they don't do the "military stuff". They don't buy ammunition, tanks or planes for an army. That's down to the individual states. They're trying to start initiatives like increasing ammunition/military production in the EU, but at the end of the day, the responsibility is still with the member states. They know best what they can and want to send to Ukraine and the EU has no power to make them do anything. Which is why the EU is focussing on what they can actually do, which is support Ukraine financially.

[west_london_red]

We haven't enough money to fix our potholes and have MPs needing money to get out of flats and away from bad people. No way do we have money to fight a war.

It’s the lesser of many evils. If Russia wins in Ukraine and say the Chinese feel emboldened to take Taiwan the economic consequences will be a lot more expensive then sending more arms to Ukraine.

[Red Beret]

We haven't enough money to fix our potholes and have MPs needing money to get out of flats and away from bad people. No way do we have money to fight a war.

We will just have to shake that magic money tree and see what falls out. Because otherwise we have basically lost this war before it started.

Killer Heels is right: we have no choice.

[Buster Gonad]

Money falls from the sky when we have to bail out financial institutions or lock down countries.  So fighting a battle against global fascism should provoke a similar response.  We can't afford it doesn't cut the mustard.
The Kremlin midget has an economy the size of Spain.  They can cook the books however they want but that reality matters.

[killer-heels]

Money falls from the sky when we have to bail out financial institutions or lock down countries.  So fighting a battle against global fascism should provoke a similar response.  We can't afford it doesn't cut the mustard.
The Kremlin midget has an economy the size of Spain.  They can cook the books however they want but that reality matters.

They produce stuff much cheaply than other European nations. But you are right, there are no excuses. The ‘West’ overpowers Russia and if there is one small silver lining to all this shit, then it wakes the world up to this. Thats if the Europeans listen.

At least with Russia they have seen what faces them. Its China thats a huge concern and you feel that they are still deliberately oblivious to that threat.

[Lusty]

The consensus is often wrong in war. Historians know this. Stalemates that turn out not to be stalemates. Tipping points - in terms of strategy, morale, politics - that cannot be predicted. So long as Ukraine is funded and properly supplied with arms it will probably endure longer than Russia in the battlefield. 

Consensus has often been wrong in this war!

It's now all down to endurance, Russian losses both in terms of money, personnel and equipment are unsustainable.  And Ukraine's defence is unsustainable without Western support.

The Us election is the next big turning point.  If Biden wins then who knows, can the Russians keep going for another 4 years if Western support is guaranteed?

[Draex]

Consensus has often been wrong in this war!

It's now all down to endurance, Russian losses both in terms of money, personnel and equipment are unsustainable.  And Ukraine's defence is unsustainable without Western support.

The Us election is the next big turning point.  If Biden wins then who knows, can the Russians keep going for another 4 years if Western support is guaranteed?

The tide can quickly change though, if the rumours are true of 300km ATACMs then Ukraine will take out the Krech Bridge which will mean a counter offensive from Khereson is a massive possibility.

[Schmidt]

The tide can quickly change though, if the rumours are true of 300km ATACMs then Ukraine will take out the Krech Bridge which will mean a counter offensive from Khereson is a massive possibility.

Depends on the type being sent. The last small batch of ATACMS were the cluster variety, which were used to shred a bunch of Russian helicopters to great effect but wouldn't do anything to the bridge.

The bridge is a difficult target because you need to potentially expend a lot of missiles to hit it, and if you take out a section of road it can be replaced relatively easily. You would need to hit the road directly above one of the supports with a big, bunker-buster type ordinance to really take it out.

Russia have also been building a rail along the coast, I haven't heard much about it for a while so I don't know how far along it is, but rail building is something Russia does pretty well. I wouldn't be shocked if any ATACMS included were used primarily to hit supply depots on Ukrainian soil rather than stopping the supplies getting there in the first place. They could also feasibly use them to hit any boats/submarines that attempt to dock in Crimea.

Speaking of ships docked in Crimea, it looks like the rescue ship Kommunna, the oldest active navy vessel in the world (launched in 1913) just got struck by a missile.
https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-in-sevastopol-russian-ship-reportedly-on-fire-and-crimea-bridge-closed/

[Draex]

Depends on the type being sent. The last small batch of ATACMS were the cluster variety, which were used to shred a bunch of Russian helicopters to great effect but wouldn't do anything to the bridge.

The bridge is a difficult target because you need to potentially expend a lot of missiles to hit it, and if you take out a section of road it can be replaced relatively easily. You would need to hit the road directly above one of the supports with a big, bunker-buster type ordinance to really take it out.

Russia have also been building a rail along the coast, I haven't heard much about it for a while so I don't know how far along it is, but rail building is something Russia does pretty well. I wouldn't be shocked if any ATACMS included were used primarily to hit supply depots on Ukrainian soil rather than stopping the supplies getting there in the first place. They could also feasibly use them to hit any boats/submarines that attempt to dock in Crimea.

Speaking of ships docked in Crimea, it looks like the rescue ship Kommunna, the oldest active navy vessel in the world (launched in 1913) just got struck by a missile.
https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-in-sevastopol-russian-ship-reportedly-on-fire-and-crimea-bridge-closed/

I agree but Ukraine have developed droneboats which can reach 1k km they will need some of them hitting the supports along with evertyhing else, it will take a combined attack of many different types of weapons which they will soon have.

Ukraine knocking out that massive AD near the crimea is paving the way to an attack imo.

[Schmidt]

I agree but Ukraine have developed droneboats which can reach 1k km they will need some of them hitting the supports along with evertyhing else, it will take a combined attack of many different types of weapons which they will soon have.

Ukraine knocking out that massive AD near the crimea is paving the way to an attack imo.

I'm not sure if drone boats can hit the supports, Russia put a lot of barricades around them a while back. It's a cheap and low tech solution but that's all you need to stop exploding boats. They have managed to mount launchers on drone boats so perhaps there's something they can do there to assist but it's likely it would take a lot of ATACMS/Taurus/Storm Shadow missiles to get the job done in reality.

Ukraine have been hitting AA, boats, airfields and the like in Crimea already so I don't think the recent S-300 hit is building to a bridge attack, more likely just another opportunity spotted and taken.

[Red Beret]

Ukraine isn't launching any offensives this year. They need to stabilise the front lines and get ready to meet renewed Russian assaults. And they need to find a way to counter Russia's ballistic missile threat. So far they've not done a good job intercepting those. Thankfully, Russia doesn't seem to have a lot of missiles available, but stockpiling them for saturation attacks. 

[itihasas]

They produce stuff much cheaply than other European nations. But you are right, there are no excuses. The ‘West’ overpowers Russia and if there is one small silver lining to all this shit, then it wakes the world up to this. Thats if the Europeans listen.

At least with Russia they have seen what faces them. Its China thats a huge concern and you feel that they are still deliberately oblivious to that threat.

Out of curiosity, why do you consider China a huge concern?

The Asians consider them a huge threat because of territorial claims in the South-China sea and we (India) also view them as the #1 threat now because of their land-grab along the Himalayan frontier but I'm a little confused as to why the Europeans should be in the same boat?

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Out of curiosity, why do you consider China a huge concern?

The Asians consider them a huge threat because of territorial claims in the South-China sea and we (India) also view them as the #1 threat now because of their land-grab along the Himalayan frontier but I'm a little confused as to why the Europeans should be in the same boat?

One for the other thread, but an overwhelming majority of European consumption originates, in some way or the other, in China.

Cars - steel, aluminium plastics, foam, fabric are all produced in China, EV batteries China controls 85% of the battery supply chain.
Food - machines that are used for processing/packaging etc are from China
Clothing - literally produced there
Smart phones - same as above

For Europeans its not about territorial claims, but more to do with a basic existential threat in case they decide to say "my toys, my rules".

[itihasas]

One for the other thread, but an overwhelming majority of European consumption originates, in some way or the other, in China.

Cars - steel, aluminium plastics, foam, fabric are all produced in China, EV batteries China controls 85% of the battery supply chain.
Food - machines that are used for processing/packaging etc are from China
Clothing - literally produced there
Smart phones - same as above

For Europeans its not about territorial claims, but more to do with a basic existential threat in case they decide to say "my toys, my rules".

they decide to say "my toys, my rules". - Can you elaborate on this? Their rules related to what?

[Schmidt]

Looks like we've announced another aid package in addition to those we've already pledged.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/rishi-sunak-promises-uks-largest-ever-military-support-package-for-ukraine

The UK plans to give vital equipment to Kyiv including 400 vehicles, more than 1,600 missiles, 4m rounds of ammunition, 60 boats, as well as an additional £500m in military funding, taking the total to £3bn this financial year.

Nothing game-changing but Ukraine need a steady stream of the basics so still really helpful. Some of the missiles are for air defence too so hopefully that helps a bit to keep their cities protected.

There was also talk of sending a prototype anti-drone laser defence system recently, it'd probably be a great deal for both parties as it saves Ukraine having to waste missiles on drones, and the manufacturer would get valuable performance data.

[classycarra]

they decide to say "my toys, my rules". - Can you elaborate on this? Their rules related to what?

https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/chinese-police-stations-uk-allegedly-shut-down-so-happens-now

[[new username under construction]]

Didn't someone say that that anti-drone laser was great if conditions were perfect at a close range and utter crap if it was a bit damp?

[Schmidt]

Didn't someone say that that anti-drone laser was great if conditions were perfect at a close range and utter crap if it was a bit damp?

I haven't seen it mentioned but even so, this would be an added layer to air defence rather than a replacement. You could put the laser further away from what you're protecting than other systems (depending on range), have it do what it can, then rely on other systems as fail safes. The main value of such a system would be that you save the cost of a missile or Gepard ammo.

[west_london_red]

Didn't someone say that that anti-drone laser was great if conditions were perfect at a close range and utter crap if it was a bit damp?

Yeah, the lasers need a clear line of site as light doesn’t obviously bend, so things like rain and clouds can get in the way and reduce the power of the laser when it hits the target, at what level it becomes useless I’m not sure, it might be a case that if conditions aren’t optimal the laser just takes longer to burn through but it does still work. I wonder what happens if the missile or drone is covered in a reflective material, will the laser just bounce off?