Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Red Beret]

BBC has them down 424.

Soz. I was following the Guardian feed. I guess it's behind.

[gazzalfc]

It's fine. It's 433 now

HAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA

433 unemployed Tories.
433 tories that may start thinking how they may feed their families.
433 tories that may be thinking how they heat their homes in winter.
433 tories that may not know what the future holds for them

433 tories that I raise a glass to and laugh at the misfortune they find themselves in

[Red Beret]

It's fine. It's 485 now

HAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA

Fucking hell!

[Yorkykopite]

The Lib Dem candidate asking for people to vote for Khan

"Apart from the 'Look!" that's a decent letter. Well done lass.

[gazzalfc]

The Lib dems are now in councillor opposition to Labour

[Elmo!]

The Lib dems are now in councillor opposition to Labour

Worth noting only for those up for election this week. Nationwide Tories still ahead of the Lib Dems.

[Statto Red]

 Fuckwitted Pob lookalike Michael Gove’s election agent, Steve Dorsett, has lost his seat on Woking council

 

[whtwht]

Fck those Tories .. fck the Reformers . I was undecided and  voted Green.  Labour sort your shit out.

[oldfordie]

Worth noting only for those up for election this week. Nationwide Tories still ahead of the Lib Dems.

Yeah, only 1/3rd of seats were up for grabs last night, I don't think it's a bad way to have elections. it would be a opportunity to get rid of governments like this quicker anyway. can see the downside though. governments need time for policys to work.

[Red-Soldier]

Great to see the Tories get another smashing!

[TepidT2O]

The Tories have lost Virginia Waters council.

For context, it’s where Cliff Richard’s mansion is. There are lots of houses like his.

Think Bentleys, tossers in pastel knitwear.. and they lost it.

That’s very very bad news for the Tories

[classycarra]

Thanks for the article. I'll read it when I haven't had a glass or two.

Agenda was in quotes, because it's generally used in a pejorative sense, with attendant sinister implications. If you meant it entirely in its more innocent, informative sense, then that's my misreading.

No you were right mate, I used it in both senses really. You weren't misreading or being unfair.

its entirely normal, and essentially the purpose, for a group like that to have an agenda so I don't mean it to sounds like a bad thing itself. however I do think their agenda does lead to many negative outcomes, some as unintended consequences to positive intent but also some as intended consequences of more sinister intent. that's just how it is with ideologues - they use beliefs, rather than science, to justify certain positions that don't seem to tally with what you'd expect of an organisation that purports to want to protect the environment (which, to me, should include people)

[classycarra]

I'm not totally shocked that some posters are attacking Thurnburg and other 'Green' groups.

Some of their views would fit well within Reform UK.

what the fuck is this shit?

apparently holding a (green) perspective that an individual should limit their global travel makes them far right?

lots of posters have been banned and muted for saying much less shitty things to label someone that the shit you're spewing here

[Yorkykopite]

The Tories have lost Virginia Waters council.

For context, it’s where Cliff Richard’s mansion is. There are lots of houses like his.

Think Bentleys, tossers in pastel knitwear.. and they lost it.

That’s very very bad news for the Tories

Congratulations.

[PaulF]

I'd never heard of him till last week. A story popped up on Rollonfriday (a gossip site for lawyers) about him spouting some Tate-esque misogyny on a podcast. Vile chap.

A gossip site for lawyers?  I bet there's some really libellous stuff in there!

[PaulF]

It's fine. It's 433 now

HAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA

433 unemployed Tories.
433 tories that may start thinking how they may feed their families.
433 tories that may be thinking how they heat their homes in winter.
433 tories that may not know what the future holds for them

433 tories that I raise a glass to and laugh at the misfortune they find themselves in

It's a lifestyle choice remember..

[red_Mark1980]

Projections from BBC and Sky are interesting. Almost as if as bad as the Tories can be there's still an element of the country voting for them.

Who'd believe it

[Jiminy Cricket]

463...

I think that is the number of seats they have won (not gained, I hasten to add). And the Tories have, so far, lost 433 Councillors. At least according the BBC.

[Sangria]

I'm not totally shocked that some posters are attacking Thurnburg and other 'Green' groups.

Some of their views would fit well within Reform UK.

How would they fit within Reform?

[Sangria]

Fck those Tories .. fck the Reformers . I was undecided and  voted Green.  Labour sort your shit out.

The only way anyone can be genuinely undecided is if it's unclear who are the main contestors of any seat opposite the Tories. I voted Labour and my ward returned Labour councillors with not huge majorities. In the GE I will vote Lib Dem as they have far more wards than Labour in the constituency.

[Draex]

It's fine. It's 433 now

HAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA

433 unemployed Tories.
433 tories that may start thinking how they may feed their families.
433 tories that may be thinking how they heat their homes in winter.
433 tories that may not know what the future holds for them

433 tories that I raise a glass to and laugh at the misfortune they find themselves in

Benefits office is going to be jammed Tuesday…

[oldfordie]

The only way anyone can be genuinely undecided is if it's unclear who are the main contestors of any seat opposite the Tories. I voted Labour and my ward returned Labour councillors with not huge majorities. In the GE I will vote Lib Dem as they have far more wards than Labour in the constituency.

Exactly, I had put a lot of the Tory losses down to Tactical voting, maybe not though, it will happen at the GE.
The message to be sent to the Torys can't be overstated, they have to be taught a lesson they will never forget, they lied and conned the country for a few yrs but they will pay the price for decades to come. that can only happen if people vote tactically,  cut the number of seats with split votes between Labour and Lib Dems letting the Torys in, if people really want to work it up the Torys then this has to happen, the Torys will be dreading this happening, they would s,,, themselves with good reason.

[TepidT2O]

This tweet for the last mayoral election

Senior Shaun Bailey source tells Guido off the back of this, “it’s closer than everyone thinks. Still a long way to go though, but Shaun will have beaten the polls by a fair whack”

“He’s polling above the party” 🍿

So, don’t panic over the London mayor too much

[cornishscouser92]

448...

[killer-heels]

This tweet for the last mayoral election

So, don’t panic over the London mayor too much

Yeah Khan will win, its never in doubt.

[TepidT2O]

448...

This is worse than their worst expectations, but still the Tory press say that they faired better than expected.

[cornishscouser92]

The Election Maps UK now cast which gives Labour 448 seats if an election were to take place today (takes into account Welsh, Scottish, London and GB wide polls). It predicted Blackpool south would see Lab with 54.4% of the vote and Tories with 22%, actual results Labour got 58.9% and the Tories 17.5%. So Labour over perform and Tories underperform, that 448 might be a bit small…

[west_london_red]

The Tories have lost Virginia Waters council.

For context, it’s where Cliff Richard’s mansion is. There are lots of houses like his.

Think Bentleys, tossers in pastel knitwear.. and they lost it.

That’s very very bad news for the Tories

Thats as bouji as you can get, Royal Wentworth Golf course is down the road, there’s a fuck off expensive International school etc it is literally money that area for anyone not familiar with it, no way else to describe it, but at the same time I’d also it’s surprising rather then shocking. Without checking the referendum results, it’s the kind of area I could imagine voted Remain, bankers, lawyers, business executives, educated people etc the kind of people who I can imagine are struggling to stay with the Tories as they try and compete with Deform.

[cornishscouser92]

The West Sussex results were mental, the Tories have lost the Chichester/West Sussex seat in a GE once since 1840, in 1910. They're in big trouble.

[Statto Red]

The Tories could still lose Harlow, they have a one seat majority on that council, however one of the Tory councillors is being investigated over comments he made.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlngzgwvp9o

[Fromola]

Projections from BBC and Sky are interesting. Almost as if as bad as the Tories can be there's still an element of the country voting for them.

Who'd believe it

They'll still get 20-something per cent of the vote in the general election and maybe 30% (even Corbyn's Labour got 32% in the landslide of 2019)

It's just how much Reform eat into their vote and whether they get double figures in vote percentage. Ultimately they're losing the Right to reform and the moderates have been turned off the party, and there's no bogeyman of Corbyn to get them out to vote, as Starmer is moderate enough for them to not fear Labour. You therefore wonder just who is voting for them now, except for the rich which isn't exactly a huge cohort. Bribing people with tax cuts won't cut it either after Truss's financial illiteracy.

Labour and Lib Dems will get over half the vote.

[Fromola]

The West Sussex results were mental, the Tories have lost the Chichester/West Sussex seat in a GE once since 1840, in 1910. They're in big trouble.

They must nearly all be fearing for their seats at the election.

If Reform do well and Lab/Lib/Green form pacts, and with strong canvassing, then it's hard to say they've got many seats that are rock solid. Ultimately Lab/Lib/Green will split the left/centre vote enough in many seats for them to sneak by.

[red_Mark1980]

They'll still get 20-something per cent of the vote in the general election and maybe 30% (even Corbyn's Labour got 32% in the landslide of 2019)

It's just how much Reform eat into their vote and whether they get double figures in vote percentage. Ultimately they're losing the Right to reform and the moderates have been turned off the party, and there's no bogeyman of Corbyn to get them out to vote, as Starmer is moderate enough for them to not fear Labour. You therefore wonder just who is voting for them now, except for the rich which isn't exactly a huge cohort. Bribing people with tax cuts won't cut it either after Truss's financial illiteracy.

Labour and Lib Dems will get over half the vote.

I get that, my point is they'll not do as bad as some of the polls suggest.

There's been some saying less than 100 seats. I'd be shocked if it's below 160

[Fromola]

I get that, my point is they'll not do as bad as some of the polls suggest.

There's been some saying less than 100 seats. I'd be shocked if it's below 160

It's hard to measure seats against vote percentage with FPTP though.

Fine margins determine a lot of seats and it can go either way. The Tories won 165 seats in 1997 which was a landslide defeat but they did get over 30% of the vote at that election. They could be nearer 20% this time, particularly with Reform.

I don't think they can bank on any of their seats as a cert, but I don't think they'll get much more than 100.

[Circa1892]

Yeah voter percentages are irrelevant.

Labour seems to have lost a lot of votes in incredibly safe urban areas and gained votes where they need to win. Their vote has been unusually efficient.

Where the vote split has had a big impact (looks like it will in WM) it wouldn’t be enough to swing seats in an election. Unless anything changes its in the bag - which will be devastating no doubt to some in here.

[Dr. Beaker]

I get that, my point is they'll not do as bad as some of the polls suggest.

There's been some saying less than 100 seats. I'd be shocked if it's below 160

Being shocked is quite normal nowadays, almost expected.

[Draex]

They must nearly all be fearing for their seats at the election.

If Reform do well and Lab/Lib/Green form pacts, and with strong canvassing, then it's hard to say they've got many seats that are rock solid. Ultimately Lab/Lib/Green will split the left/centre vote enough in many seats for them to sneak by.

Reform has done horrifically, less than 10 seats yet all over the bbc, where are the greens who have done brilliantly.

[west_london_red]

Reform has done horrifically, less than 10 seats yet all over the bbc, where are the greens who have done brilliantly.

Reform didn’t field that many candidates, that’s why these results are worse for the Tories than they look. Come the GE the Tories will lose more votes to Reform than they have in these elections.

[Draex]

Reform didn’t field that many candidates, that’s why these results are worse for the Tories than they look. Come the GE the Tories will lose more votes to Reform than they have in these elections.

They won 1 seat, the workers party won more.

It's the fawning over the media over them I cant stand.

[Red Beret]

Reform didn’t field that many candidates, that’s why these results are worse for the Tories than they look. Come the GE the Tories will lose more votes to Reform than they have in these elections.

And presumably, the Tories will lose more votes to Reform than Labour will to independents protesting Gaza.