I wrote this on Reddit, but I am sharing it here too in case people want to discuss the best format for a 48 team world cup.
As you might have read previously on these boards or listened during any World Cup broadcasts this year. This will be the last time the World cup is going to have 32 teams.
Starting from the next edition in 2026, hosted by the North American countries of Mexico, Canada and The US, there are going to be 48 teams participating.
As always with FIFA, however, decisions have been made without much thought or study and thus after current FIFA president, Gianni Infantino announced on October 4th, 2016 that the competition has expanded, it was of no surprise to hear that FIFA didn't have a solid plan about the format of the competition and instead had four expansion options were considered, two of them were scraped as they had expansion set to 40 teams only, instead of 48, the two remaining expansion format were as follows:
- Expand to 48 teams (opening 32-team playoff round)—80 matches
- Expand to 48 teams (16 groups of 3 teams)—80 matches
As you can see, both were not only bad, they were just plain terrible. The first option takes the lowest ranked 32 teams and play them in knockout format and then have the winners play in the group stages. I don't need to expand on why this is not only a terrible idea from a spectacle perspective, it simply gives no room for error, especially for teams who worked for 4 years to qualify for this coveted competition only to end up playing 1 game.
The second option, which FIFA said will get the go ahead is somehow even worse. For once, groups of three where two teams can qualify for the next round, will put integrity of the competition into question and will simply kill the group stage games. I also find the idea that they reduced the minimum guaranteed games for any nations from 3 to 2 is off putting.
FIFA it seems have heard the same problems. Amid collusion fears, it seems FIFA wants to go back to groups of four.
https://tinyurl.com/bd9hfn9tAfter a lot of talk about how this format is not exciting and being reminded every match of the expansion, I started thinking about the best format that would guarantee excitement and simplicity. As someone who hates the best third placed teams solution, as I think it is lazy and unimaginative, I started coming up with different formats that can work with groups of four.
Finally, it came to mind that my grand father, my father, my uncles still glow and talk about the 1982 World Cup as their favorite. They all talked about how competitive it was and how pretty much almost every game mattered especially in the second group phase. In referenced this was the format of the 1982 World Cup:
- 6 Groups (4 teams in each group, round robin format)
- Top two teams from each group qualify to the second round
- The second round group games are seeded as follows, "The composition of the groups in the second round was determined before the start of the tournament. Groups A and B were to include one team from each of Groups 1 through 6, and Groups C and D included the remaining six teams. The winners of Groups 1 and 3 were in Group A whilst the runners-up were in Group C. The winners of Groups 2 and 4 were in Group B whilst the runners-up were in Group D. The winner of Group 5 was in Group D whilst the runner-up was in Group B. The winner of Group 6 was in Group C whilst the runner-up was in Group A. Thus, Group A mirrored Group C, and Group B mirrored Group D with the winners and runners-up from the first round being placed into opposite groups in the second round. The second-round groups that mirrored each other (based on the first-round groupings) faced off against each other in the semifinals. Thus, the Group A winner played the Group C winner, and the Group B winner played the Group D winner. This meant that if two teams which played in the same first-round group both emerged from the second round, they would meet for the second time of the tournament in a semifinal match. It also guaranteed that the final match would feature two teams that had not previously played each other in the tournament. As it turned out, Italy and Poland who were both in Group 1 in the first round, each won their second-round groups and played each other in a semifinal match."
- Additionally in the second round of group games, although the fixtures were provisionally determined in advance, the teams competing in each fixture depended on the result of the opening match in each group: Should a team lose their opening game of the group, that team would then have to play in the second fixture against the team not playing in the opening group game; the winner of the opening game would, by contrast, be rewarded by not needing to play again until the final fixture of the group and therefore gained extra recovery time. If the opening game was a draw, the predetermined order of games would proceed as planned. These regulations helped ensure that the final group games were of importance as no team could already have progressed to the semi-finals by the end of the second fixtures.
Taking this format, and applying it to a 48 team world cup, I think it is the best one. For example, it guarantees that half of the first teams participating in the competition advance from the group stages and practically guarantee a competitive second round games which will feature a lot of heavyweights together with only the winner of each group advancing to the quarter finals, thus no collusion to worry about, meanwhile the final group game of each group in the second round will be a meaningful game and not a dead rubber.
Last but not least, those reaching the semis will end up playing 8 games which is just an extra game more than in the current format, while also still having the competition being concluded under the 35 days maximum that FIFA guarantee.
As a reminder here is how the format would go:
- First round of group games (12 groups of 4, round robin format, each team plays 3 games, top two teams qualify) - 72 games
- Second round of group games (8 groups of 3, round robin format, each team plays 2 games, top team qualify) - 24 games
- Knock out competition from the QF till the final. - 8 games
- Total 104 games
What do you think about this format? Do you think it is applicable? Please let me in the comments.
