Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2023-24

[Sangria]

We've had a fair amount of difficult games, but conversely hard games are the only way to gain APLT points, while with easy games the only way is down. I think the APLT is interesting but isn't necessarily a better indicator than the league table.

But then we're top of both so who cares!

It's an objective measure of the difficulty of any run of fixtures.

[mercurial]

We've had a fair amount of difficult games, but conversely hard games are the only way to gain APLT points, while with easy games the only way is down. I think the APLT is interesting but isn't necessarily a better indicator than the league table.

But then we're top of both so who cares!

APLT should be read alongside the league table. Sometimes a team position in the league table when read with APLT shows that a team is over performing or under achieving. Spurs was overachieving and APLT showed that. We have played most of our tough games, we now have to win at home. The supposedly tough fixtures like manchester, spurs  or arsenal at home are actually fixtures which a champion should ideally win at home. We have +3 and we will drop points this season. Almost all teams are below par in that respect according to APLT. Liverpool can probably afford to drop a home fixture or 2. City cannot afford too many more drops in par 3 games. It means they have to win par 1 games which are more difficult.

[Schmidt]

APLT should be read alongside the league table. Sometimes a team position in the league table when read with APLT shows that a team is over performing or under achieving. Spurs was overachieving and APLT showed that. We have played most of our tough games, we now have to win at home. The supposedly tough fixtures like manchester, spurs  or arsenal at home are actually fixtures which a champion should ideally win at home. We have +3 and we will drop points this season. Almost all teams are below par in that respect according to APLT. Liverpool can probably afford to drop a home fixture or 2. City cannot afford too many more drops in par 3 games. It means they have to win par 1 games which are more difficult.

Yeah this is how I look at it, but with the league table the stronger indicator of the two as nothing beats points on the board.

[Sangria]

Yeah this is how I look at it, but with the league table the stronger indicator of the two as nothing beats points on the board.

It rather counters the claims of those who say that we're only top because of a kind run of fixtures. No it wasn't. It was tougher than most, and we're top despite that. Our competitors will have a tougher run of fixtures from hereon, while we should be turning the APLT lead into a more concrete  PL lead from this point on.

[BrianJone5]

Yeah this is how I look at it, but with the league table the stronger indicator of the two as nothing beats points on the board.

The ultimate arbiter is the league table: what has been won. The Alternative league table shows *how* those points have been won.

A few weeks ago, we were several places off top of the league, but we were top in the alternative table. Why? Because the alternative showed, objectively, that our points were from a harder start. Also, that teams like Man United held positions above us that flattered to deceive because their points were gained from a much easier set of fixtures.

As a season comes to a close, supporters might look at the remaining fixtures to assess the run-in for us compared to other teams around us, as we aim to win or at least get top-four? Well, the alternative Premier League table kind of does that from the first day of the season, looking at performance in terms of fixture difficulty, as the fixture list unfolds over time.

[RooiBefok]

The ultimate arbiter is the league table: what has been won. The Alternative league table shows *how* those points have been won.

A few weeks ago, we were several places off top of the league, but we were top in the alternative table. Why? Because the alternative showed, objectively, that our points were from a harder start. Also, that teams like Man United held positions above us that flattered to deceive because their points were gained from a much easier set of fixtures.

As a season comes to a close, supporters might look at the remaining fixtures to assess the run-in for us compared to other teams around us, as we aim to win or at least get top-four? Well, the alternative Premier League table kind of does that from the first day of the season, looking at performance in terms of fixture difficulty, as the fixture list unfolds over time.

I take it you meant Man City as opposed to Man United.

This is a perfect synopsis of what the APLT represents.  Well said!

[stonecold_jpm]

Win our next few and I think the real table will show the same as the APLT.  Our fixtures indicate this is our perfect time to go on a winning run up until we go away to Arsenal. An 8/9 game winning run could well be enough this season.

[farawayred]

Yeah this is how I look at it, but with the league table the stronger indicator of the two as nothing beats points on the board.

You've obviously never heard of "winning without winning"!... Some teams use that philosophy.   

[wemmick]

So after Boxing Day:

5/12 Par 1s remaining
14/26 Par 3s remaining.


Although 3 of out next 4 Par 3s are United, Arsenal and Newcastle

I think we'll win the league if we get through United, Arsenal, and Newcastle unscathed. The remaining home matches all look good for us in the second half of the season. 

[Dull Tools]

I think we'll win the league if we get through United, Arsenal, and Newcastle unscathed. The remaining home matches all look good for us in the second half of the season.

The Bournemouth away game looks tough now too.

[Kashinoda]

Not APLT but

[newterp]

Not APLT but

I like how they gave Spurs a 0.0 considering they already won the title

[Brian Blessed]

Combining the real table, APTL, and JPs results comparison is always a good way to go. For example, time-wise we have exactly the same ppg as we did in 21/22. Abu Dhabi were slightly ahead of us that season, but now back about 1/3 of a point. If we keep doing what we’re doing, they are going to need one of their mega runs, and quite soon.

[Penfold78]

 APLT is looking very sexy right now but don’t forget our long-standing propensity to play like dickheads in the “easy” fixtures.

[thaddeus]

Not APLT but

The trajectory is promising but I wonder what they fed the model in August to come up with the initial prediction that said Man City had a high 80s% chance of winning the league.  I think most people would have had them down as favourites and I wasn't overly optimistic about our chances.  Arsenal had just run them sort of close though and then spent Ł200m on summer transfers - all that for about a 5% chance of winning the league!

[johnny74]

It will be an extremely tight game on Sunday. Their entire game plan will be to stop us scoring and perhaps try and nick something. Could be very very fine margins. They are expected by many to be blown away by us and we haven't lost at home for a very long time so naturally they will win this.

[latortuga]

The trajectory is promising but I wonder what they fed the model in August to come up with the initial prediction that said Man City had a high 80s% chance of winning the league.  I think most people would have had them down as favourites and I wasn't overly optimistic about our chances.  Arsenal had just run them sort of close though and then spent Ł200m on summer transfers - all that for about a 5% chance of winning the league!

Well they've won 5 of the last 6 titles = 83%.

At the more granular level I'm sure it also factors in their xG which is usually superior to everyone else by some margin, ensuring a greater probability of winning games.

[BrianJone5]

APLT is looking very sexy right now but don’t forget our long-standing propensity to play like dickheads in the “easy” fixtures.

Then there is our post-Xmas wobble ....

[Red Beret]

We will have a better idea of how capable we really are in January.

[Suareznumber7]

We will have a better idea of how capable we really are in January.

Early January?  Get ready for a humbling tomorrow.  Don't see any way we pick up points in this fixture. 

[jambutty]

Then there is our post-Xmas wobble ....

Don't you ever shut up?

[stonecold_jpm]

City -7

[Sangria]

Post the updated APLT you cowards.

.

[latortuga]

City -7

I'm a bit disappointed it isn't -8.  Crystal Palace have made a habit out of winning this game in recent seasons. 

[jambutty]

APLT is looking very sexy right now but don’t forget our long-standing propensity to play like dickheads in the “easy” fixtures.

Like today.

[stonecold_jpm]

We’re doomed now no chance on Saturday if we can’t even score against that shite lot.  Arsenal to take over the APLT and go 4 ahead of us in the real table.

[Prof]

[courty61]

Thanks Prof.

Next 5 are all par 3s. Just need to win them all I feel

[gazzam1963]

Villa down to -3

[zabadoh]

APLT is looking very sexy right now but don’t forget our long-standing propensity to play like dickheads in the “easy” fixtures.

Dropping points on "easy" fixtures is really a question of the quality of our reserves.

Our first choice team can't play every match, so the reserves get slotted in against perceived weaker teams, and of course to fill in for first choices who can't play due to rest, injuries and suspensions.

A team that does not have quality reserves is forced to play the first choices for more matches, which wears their bodies down faster, leading to more injuries, etc.

So it's really about club spending to build a quality second or even third team to keep winning during the marathon that is the season.

[farawayred]

Two weeks and -4 points is hard to take when we are in such great form... especially the first -2 against United. Almost half way though, still plenty of football to be played.

[courty61]

Shame to go below 90. Just need to go on a long winning streak now.

[Caps4444]

We are nicely placed, but the concern is that we are - 5 in our 5 games against the traditional top 6.
These are the games where we can damage a rival and pull away.
I think we are bottom of the top 6 table on 4 points.

[Prof]

[farawayred]

Thank you, Prof, and merry Christmas!

[kavah]

Nice one prof. We’d have bitten your hand off for this in August.

[farawayred]

I always thought that our start was more difficult, and that may have been so over the first few games, but after half a season of games played, we are in the worst position for the incoming games. We have only 5 par 1 games left, City have 7, Arsenal have 6, United 6, Spurs 7, Chelsea 7... I think that some dropped points against poor teams would come to haunt us. Or we have to beat Arsenal, City and Villa to the title.

[zabadoh]

...We have only 5 par 1 games left,..

Waitaminit. 

If we're in 1st by 2 points on the actual table, 1 point ahead on the APLT at the midpoint with a slightly easier schedule left than this season's other contenders, isn't that a good thing?

[farawayred]

Waitaminit. 

If we're in 1st by 2 points on the actual table, 1 point ahead on the APLT at the midpoint with a slightly easier schedule left than this season's other contenders, isn't that a good thing?

For the moment. But with City having two more 1 par games, it means that they have more opportunities to make ground. If we match their results, we'd win it. But they can be relentless, and we've shown that quality only one season.

[Red Beret]

For the moment. But with City having two more 1 par games, it means that they have more opportunities to make ground. If we match their results, we'd win it. But they can be relentless, and we've shown that quality only one season.

That's a bit harsh. We had two 90 plus point seasons where we lost the title on the last day of the season by 1 point.