Topic: Chasing the Title

[BigJimFinn]

And we would be safe from relegation...

45 points available

5 points to be safe from relegation
16 points to finish in the top half / finish above Everton
19 points to finish in top 6 (probable Euro qualifying)
27 points to surpass our best season since we last won the title
30 points to finish in top 4/5 (CL qualifying)
42 points to win the League

I hate love to be pedantic, but we are already mathematically safe from relegation. There is no possible scenario where 17 teams finish above 60 points.

[Wabaloolah]

Remaining fixtures:

January 2019
Sat 12th 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion A
Sat 19th 15:00 Crystal Palace H
Wed 30th 20:00 Leicester City H
February 2019
Mon 4th 20:00 West Ham United A
Sat 9th 15:00 Bournemouth H
Sun 24th 14:05 Manchester United A
Wed 27th 20:00 Watford H
March 2019
Sat 2nd 15:00 Everton A
Sat 9th 15:00 Burnley H
Sat 16th 15:00 Fulham A
Sat 30th 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur H
April 2019
Sat 6th 15:00 Southampton A
Sat 13th 15:00 Chelsea H
Sat 20th 15:00 Cardiff City A
Sat 27th 15:00 Huddersfield Town H

City remaining fixtures:

January 2019
Mon 14th 20:00 Wolverhampton Wanderers H
Sun 20th 13:30 Huddersfield Town A
Tue 29th 20:00 Newcastle United A
February
Sun 3rd 16:30 Arsenal H
Sun 10th 16:00 Chelsea H
Sat 23rd 17:30 Everton A
Tue 26th 20:00 West Ham H
March
Sat 2nd 15:00 Bournemouth A
Sat 9th 15:00 Watford H
Sat 16th 15:00 Manchester United A
Sat 30th 15:00 Fulham A
April
Sat 6th 15:00 Cardiff City H
Sat 13th 15:00 Crystal Palace A
Sat 20th 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur H
Sat 27th 15:00 Burnley A
May
Sat 4th 15:00 Leicester City H
Sun 12th 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion A

Those are both ours and their remaining fixtures in the league until the end of the season, the boldest ones are the most difficult on paper. The only reason I've bolded Everton for us is because it's the derby and they always get up for it, while they'll just roll over for City as usual. We both have Spurs at home, Chelsea at home, and United away. The other 'harder' match sees us having Everton away while they have Arsenal at home, and I honestly feel playing Arsenal would be easier. It's going to go down to the wire unless some unexpected points are dropped of course. Hopefully they'll progress in the CL and draw some good sides as well.

The next three games potentially could give us some breathing space with a bit of luck!

[PaulF]

I hate love to be pedantic, but we are already mathematically safe from relegation. There is no possible scenario where 17 teams finish above 60 points.

Interesting. I find I didn't consider the possibility that it was more complex than looking at the max points Cardiff can take. Is it really tricky to add in all the possible points?

[spider-neil]

Annoyingly the next two games City play the round before we do.

[Roger Federer]

My prediction, which is not worth a whole lot, is that they will finish on 94 points. Meaning that they will drop points in 3 of their games. That would match their run in last season, and they would get 50 points in the second half of the season.

[spider-neil]

My prediction, which is not worth a whole lot, is that they will finish on 94 points. Meaning that they will drop points in 3 of their games. That would match their run in last season, and they would get 50 points in the second half of the season.

Would I be correct in thinking 94 points would be enough for the title in all but 2 league seasons?

[Roger Federer]

Would I be correct in thinking 94 points would be enough for the title in all but 2 league seasons?

Yes, there’s only been a winner with more points twice (last year and Chelsea when they got 95). The best a second place team has had is 89 I think (United when City won in the last minute), so every team with 90+ would’ve won if you see it that way.

[1892tillforever]

With the postponement of their walkover at Goodison, City will play 7 of their last 11 matches away from home I think as they will end up playing 3 at home in a row (Arsenal, Chelsea and West Ham). Not expecting them to drop much at home so that could be crucial; especially if we are still 4 points ahead at that point.

[spider-neil]

What a difference a month makes. We had the opportunity to increase the lead at the top to 10 points but now the gap at the top may be 1 point the next time we play as City play the next league game before we do.

[El Lobo]

What a difference a month makes. We had the opportunity to increase the lead at the top to 10 points but now the gap at the top may be 1 point the next time we play as City play the next league game before we do.

Yep

A month ago we were one point clear 

[Felch Aid]

Feb for me is the month that might just give one of the teams the edge. City's run is not easy but after Saturday you could say the same for us.

One game at a time but if we could get that 7 point lead back the games are then beginning to run out.

[Jm55]

What a difference a month makes. We had the opportunity to increase the lead at the top to 10 points but now the gap at the top may be 1 point the next time we play as City play the next league game before we do.

Slightly blinkered way of looking at it.

It was a 7 point lead and now it’s a 4 point lead. If you want to include the difference and ignore the game in hand then yesterday we were 7 points ahead until City beat Huddersfield and the previous week we were 7 points ahead until they beat Wolves.

[killer-heels]

What a difference a month makes. We had the opportunity to increase the lead at the top to 10 points but now the gap at the top may be 1 point the next time we play as City play the next league game before we do.

Its one game. One game.

Honestly if we are still going to hark back to a game against City where it was difficult to draw, let alone win, then we are buying into this stupid ‘bottled it’ talk.

We had to beat Man City, away to be 10 points clear. We were never 10 points clear.

[Jm55]

As an interesting point, let’s say we win against Leicester and finish January (at least) 4 points clear.

How many would have taken that on January 3rd before kick off?

Obviously a 4 point gap was the worst case scenario prior to that game, but then there’s 3 matches afterward, one of which is away, and no guarantee of winning any of them.

I suppose if we’d managed a draw against city then we’d have to go some to end up with less than a 4 point gap, but then a loss can sometimes spark a poor run of form, and given the narrowness of the last two matches, we could easily be behind them on goal difference. That is in no way a dig at the team at all, I think it’s testamount to them to have won those two games when City for example lost under very similar circumstances.

It’s just an interesting point when people say we didn’t take the chance to take a 10 point lead, or at least maintain a 7 point lead, that the subsequent matches are worth just as many points, and whilst they may be easier on paper, 3 matches are worth 9 points and The City game just 3.

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that.

[killer-heels]

As an interesting point, let’s say we win against Leicester and finish January (at least) 4 points clear.

How many would have taken that on January 3rd before kick off?

Obviously a 4 point gap was the worst case scenario prior to that game, but then there’s 3 matches afterward, one of which is away, and no guarantee of winning any of them.

I suppose if we’d managed a draw against city then we’d have to go some to end up with less than a 4 point gap, but then a loss can sometimes spark a poor run of form, and given the narrowness of the last two matches, we could easily be behind them on goal difference. That is in no way a dig at the team at all, I think it’s testamount to them to have won those two games when City for example lost under very similar circumstances.

It’s just an interesting point when people say we didn’t take the chance to take a 10 point lead, or at least maintain a 7 point lead, that the subsequent matches are worth just as many points, and whilst they may be easier on paper, 3 matches are worth 9 points and The City game just 3.

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that.

Everyone would have taken it and they are a liar if they said differently.

Whether it be August, December or even January.

[Jm55]

Everyone would have taken it and they are a liar if they said differently.

Whether it be August, December or even January.

But if we won that game we’d have been 10 points clear...

I’d have taken it don’t get me wrong but I just wonder how many there are with a sturdier Hans for gambling than me who would have fancied us to finish January on more than that.

[Crosby Nick]

But if we won that game we’d have been 10 points clear...

I’d have taken it don’t get me wrong but I just wonder how many there are with a sturdier Hans for gambling than me who would have fancied us to finish January on more than that.

I was hoping for 7. 10 would have been utopia!

[killer-heels]

But if we won that game we’d have been 10 points clear...

I’d have taken it don’t get me wrong but I just wonder how many there are with a sturdier Hans for gambling than me who would have fancied us to finish January on more than that.

At the start of December I said that I felt we needed to win all our games just to stay level with City and that I didnt think that was a realistic situation. The fact we won every game when we had the Napoli, Arsenal, Utd and Everton fixtures in there was absolutely amazing.

I didnt expect 10 points when were going inti the City game. I am disappointed that we didnt draw to keep the gap to 7 but City are an amazing side and I felt they could beat us.

If we didnt have that game and say City had lost to another side and we failed to capitolise to take it to 10 points then yes i would have been disappointed.

[nayia2002]

Next 3 games are absolutely crucial if we drops points and they get 9 points from 3 games its curtains im afraid!!

Im hoping theyll draw against either Newcastle,arsenal, chelsea

[killer-heels]

Next 3 games are absolutely crucial if we drops points and they get 9 points from 3 games its curtains im afraid!!

Im hoping theyll draw against either Newcastle,arsenal, chelsea

The West Ham game is a concern. They have improved despite some inconsistency and a Monday Night game there will not be easy.

[Jm55]

Next 3 games are absolutely crucial if we drops points and they get 9 points from 3 games its curtains im afraid!!

Im hoping theyll draw against either Newcastle,arsenal, chelsea

How have you worked that out?

So if we drop points in any of those 3 matches and City win, despite us potentially still being ahead, it’s curtains?

Martin Keown, is that you?

[kaesarsosei]

I'm also concerned at West Ham (a) on a Monday night. That's potentially as big a banana skin as Chelsea or Spurs at home IMO. At least it's not at Upton Park.

[Roger Federer]

How have you worked that out?

So if we drop points in any of those 3 matches and City win, despite us potentially still being ahead, it’s curtains?

Martin Keown, is that you?

If we only drop point in one of them, we will be ahead. We can afford at least one more poor result than they can. We all hope it wont come in these three 'easier' games of course, but to say it's curtains when we would be top of the league with 12 games left is bizarre.

[El Lobo]

I'm also concerned at West Ham (a) on a Monday night. That's potentially as big a banana skin as Chelsea or Spurs at home IMO. At least it's not at Upton Park.

 

They’re all potential banana skins

The top 6 are all good sides

The relegation scrappers are scrapping for relegation

The ones who aren’t either have already shown they’re capable of taking points from anyone

It’s the same for us and City, every match is a potential banana skin. At this point I wouldn’t particularly look at any fixtures as easy. Should win though.

[nayia2002]

How have you worked that out?

So if we drop points in any of those 3 matches and City win, despite us potentially still being ahead, it’s curtains?

Martin Keown, is that you?

😁

No we will still be 2 points ahead come February 10th but on paper our next 3 games (Leicester, West ham, Bournemouth) are easier than theirs!

[reddebs]

Another round of games gone and we're still top, with a 4 point gap.

14 more times I need to post that sentence, then I can go batshit crazy.



Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

[fowlermagic]

Next 3 games are absolutely crucial if we drops points and they get 9 points from 3 games its curtains im afraid!!

Im hoping theyll draw against either Newcastle,arsenal, chelsea

Its this sort of nervousness that will be the death of me as the league will not be won or loss Jan 21, Feb 21 or March 21 so can we the fans at least fecking relax. 16 more cup finals....now 15 cup finals....jaysus aright then let me go through the build up of a final every week and my nerves will be shot by St Paddys Day. Breath, breath deeper, heres a paper bag as we just saw our dream girl walk into the pub. Its a long way to go before we can put a ring on her so lets not blow our load quite yet.

[Paullfc95]

West Ham game could be moved to 12pm on the Sunday remember.

I think this could benefit us more. We’d play before city that day and the crowd will still be half asleep.

Compare that to under the lights and city being 1 point behind going into it.

Having said that, we tend not to be great at early ko’s.

[Jm55]

If we only drop point in one of them, we will be ahead. We can afford at least one more poor result than they can. We all hope it wont come in these three 'easier' games of course, but to say it's curtains when we would be top of the league with 12 games left is bizarre.

Even if we end up behind them again, there’s still a long way to go.

This mantra of ‘City won’t drop anymore points,’ or similar is really starting to get on my fucking nerves.

Yes I know they’ve done that before, but they’ve also had poor periods more recently than that, there’s more examples of them having poor periods than there are of them winning 18 games on the spin. They lost 3 games in a month in December yet people are still saying it’s a foregone conclusion that they’re going to juggernaught it to May and the only way we have any hope of competing is if we go on some ridiculous run.

1 month ago they lost back to back matches to Palace and Leicester. Next time someone says there’s ‘no chance’ of whoever they’re up against getting a result, just remember that.

[grossagain]

Everyone would have taken it and they are a liar if they said differently.

I wouldn't. It's still a great position and I've no complaints, but don't see why everyone would have taken that when it'd basically be saying 'happy to lose to City as long as we beat Brighton and Palace, with City also winning their other games'.

[fowlermagic]

I wouldn't. It's still a great position and I've no complaints, but don't see why everyone would have taken that when it'd basically be saying 'happy to lose to City as long as we beat Brighton and Palace, with City also winning their other games'.

And with that logic I be quite happy if we lost at City as long as we match their results from there on as that is all we have to do. I said something similar before the City game as the key was not that game but how we respond from there on and at least win the next few games. City had a chance to reduce the deficit so hats off to them but they are not in the drivers seat yet so lets see if we can keep them in the back seat. Honestly there will be a few surprises from here on with both sides as we will drop points, we will lose games we were expected to win so WHEN that happens it how we respond that matters. We have responded pretty well since the City game so lets keep it going.

[zip]

But if we won that game we’d have been 10 points clear...

And if my aunt had bollocks she'd be my uncle.

Pointless dwelling on it. Win our games and we win the league.

[rawcusk8]

Strange few posts in here. Anything is possible, City wont drop points again? I mean it's not like they dropped points December against teams they ought to have beaten. With their fixture pile up anything is possible and the best thing about the situation we are in is that we don't really have to focus on them at all. They can win all their remaining games 10-0 and still lose the title. We just keep doing what we have to, take it a step at a time and not give a shit what those plastic, oil loving stadium empty small time twats do. One game at a time, Redmen.

[grossagain]

And with that logic I be quite happy if we lost at City as long as we match their results from there on as that is all we have to do.

Of course we would all take that for the next 15 games (as I said it's a great position to be in), but it's only been two. Was just saying I wouldn't have taken this position before the city game, as to be in a worse position we'd have had to lose to City AND drop points against Palace or Brighton, with City also winning both of their games.

[Jm55]

And if my aunt had bollocks she'd be my uncle.

Pointless dwelling on it. Win our games and we win the league.

I’m not dwelling on it, it’s in the context of me asking if you’d have taken this position prior to kick off at the Etihad. I personally would have done.

[A-Bomb]

Just enjoy the ride guys, one game at a time....Leicester up next for a tonking! If we can get to April in touching distance - just think of those bus welcome days ahead..... be an ace atmosphere!

[Jm55]

West Ham game could be moved to 12pm on the Sunday remember.

I think this could benefit us more. We’d play before city that day.

What has to happen for this to transpire?

Is it connected to the Fa Cup?

[fowlermagic]

Of course we would all take that for the next 15 games (as I said it's a great position to be in), but it's only been two. Was just saying I wouldn't have taken this position before the city game, as to be in a worse position we'd have had to lose to City AND drop points against Palace or Brighton, with City also winning both of their games.

I get your point as would have loved to put another nail in Citys season but its done now. Only two games after and we are 6 game points better off. Its all we can ask right now as any game after a loss is a huge game so to have two wins since shows the lads rhythm were not knocked off kilter. City lost one game and dropped quite a few points after. In that example alone we are showing that we are the better side right now, mentally and physically but I am not counting chickens yet

[Red_Irishman]

West Ham game could be moved to 12pm on the Sunday remember.

I think this could benefit us more. We’d play before city that day and the crowd will still be half asleep.

Compare that to under the lights and city being 1 point behind going into it.

Having said that, we tend not to be great at early ko’s.

Sorry but why could it possibly be moved? That would be great if so. Would definitely prefer a 12pm KO. Perhaps not great for the travelling fans but it will definitely take away some of their atmosphere.

[Caston]

What has to happen for this to transpire?

Is it connected to the Fa Cup?

If they draw with Wimbledon on Saturday I think