Topic: Paris shootings..

[Blinis]

I was talking to someone recently who works as an advisor to G4S and he was saying that the French are still alarmingly underprepared. There are a lot of potential shooters out there and they are really struggling to keep a lid on it.

As you say, the number of potential shooters in France is staggering, for a lot of reasons. It's impossible to monitor them on an individual basis, nor is it to put them in preventive jail (although some argue that the French government took a very worrying step in this direction by using home assignment, most of them having been judged illegal by courts months after they began). The French DCRI has limited funds, although they have steadily increased in the past few years.

Anyway, political terrorism is not solved by putting 10 millions of people in jails. El Baghdadi became who he is now in jail. Terrorism is fought politically, either by negociations when they are possible, which is not the case here, or by drying out the embodiment of what these guy fight for, namely ISIS for Islamic terrorism, the USSR and the communist ideal for Italy in the 70s-80s etc.

[Alan_X]

No I'm suggesting that those on the radar of the security services are probably threats to the country and need closer monitoring. Why are you bringing race into it?

Because being 'on the radar' might be because their neighbour is suspicious of someone becoming a bit more overtly 'Islamic'. How do you think these people get 'on the radar'? It's through reports by neighbours, police informants, it might be that they were petty criminals before and they have been exposed to radical teachings in prison. They might be converts to Islam in prison who are watched but who have simply converted and have no interest and inclination to carry out terrorist acts. There will be thousands who might have been brought to the attention of the police but have been deemed a low or negligible risk.

This isn't 24 or Spooks.

Part of the problem is that these attacks are relatively infrequent. We are working with a small dataset to try and come up with a clear profile for who will definitely or even most likely change from a low risk to an actual attacker. The Westminster attacker didn't fit the profile we had all begun to accept for a European 'lone wolf' attacker: a young disenfranchised, radicalised ex-petty-criminal. He was middle aged for a start.

And you also have the problem that high levels of surveillance and the suspicion that the police are watching young muslim men for signs of radicalisation creates exactly the sense of alienation that can make young men susceptible to recruiters.

[BobPaisley3]

Security services never win: if the terrorists are known to them, it's "why aren't they monitoring them?". When the attacker is unknown to them, it's "how come this guy is unknown"? And if and when security services do prevent an attack because of good intel, then... nobody says anything because nobody knows because preventing makes no noise.

Security services do valuable work. Some attacks can be prevented, some can't. We have to accept that. Improve what can be.

Of course and they can only do what's possible with the tools at their disposal. If they need more resources, funding, staff they should be given what they need. There was a big recruitment drive a couple of years ago and the problem here thankfully hasn't amounted to what it has in France, however this isn't an issue that's going away.

[BobPaisley3]

Because being 'on the radar' might be because their neighbour is suspicious of someone becoming a bit more overtly 'Islamic'. How do you think these people get 'on the radar'? It's through reports by neighbours, police informants, it might be that they were petty criminals before and they have been exposed to radical teachings in prison. They might be converts to Islam in prison who are watched but who have simply converted and have no interest and inclination to carry out terrorist acts. There will be thousands who might have been brought to the attention of the police but have been deemed a low or negligible risk.

This isn't 24 or Spooks.

Part of the problem is that these attacks are relatively infrequent. We are working with a small dataset to try and come up with a clear profile for who will definitely or even most likely change from a low risk to an actual attacker. The Westminster attacker didn't fit the profile we had all begun to accept for a European 'lone wolf' attacker: a young disenfranchised, radicalised ex-petty-criminal. He was middle aged for a start.

And you also have the problem that high levels of surveillance and the suspicion that the police are watching young muslim men for signs of radicalisation creates exactly the sense of alienation that can make young men susceptible to recruiters.

I agree fully that the problem here in terms of actual attacks isn't currently great, due in the main, to the work done by the police/security services. My initial post was more with regard to France where these attacks are becoming more frequent. What happens if 'mainstream' politicians are seen to be failing with domestic terror? You get a Le Pen type candidate and then god forbid, civil liberties do go out of the window. France has a huge problem on its hands at the moment and as others have alluded to, the end unfortunately is not nigh.

[Alan_X]

I agree fully that the problem here in terms of actual attacks isn't currently great, due in the main, to the work done by the police/security services. My initial post was more with regard to France where these attacks are becoming more frequent. What happens if 'mainstream' politicians are seen to be failing with domestic terror? You get a Le Pen type candidate and then god forbid, civil liberties do go out of the window. France has a huge problem on its hands at the moment and as others have alluded to, the end unfortunately is not nigh.

I agree - it's a horrible situation. It needs calmness and a clear information strategy.

[GreatEx]

It seems to be that they want French people to get to vote for Marine Le Pen, in some sick move. They bet that Le Pen, once in power, will increase the pressure on French Muslims given that how racist she is, how close she is to neo-nazi movements, and the history of the Front National, making them more willing to join IS or whatever extreme Islamic terrorist organisation will be fancy in a few months.

Yes I agree they want Le Pen to win, but not sure that recruitment of outraged Muslims is the main motivator here. The big advantage to a Le Pen win would be the disintegration of the EU and possibly NATO, plunging the continent into chaos and possibly more major wars in the coming century. The only way these c*nts get their caliphate is if the West hits the self-destruct button, which we appear to be doing with relish.

On the question of why Islamic terrorism seems to be an everyday occurrence these days, I don't think it helps to throw around inflammatory stuff like "oh they hate the western way of life, and how we're nice to women and gays and apostates and stuff". Islam has been around for 1500 years and it's not like "our" way of life has resulted in daily terror attacks ever since. It's not even as though western meddling in middle eastern affairs is anything new, although Israel was the catalyst for many problems. The biggest change over the last 10 years has surely been the prevalence of social media as a recruiting and misinformation tool. So really, the "war on terror" needs to be a cyberwar, not dropping mothers of all bombs or simultaneously threatening to bomb North Korea, Syria and Iran into the stone age if they don't behave the way we want them to. These homegrown terrorists are being groomed online; the channels of communication need to be shut down.

[TepidT2O]

Foreign policy... that's the problem eh?

Of course this is rubbish.  It's the western way of life they are trying to destroy.

Look at Sweden. Their interventions in he Middle East? None...

[Realdidi]

Will it ever end? Makes me feel grateful for the work our intelligence service does over here


[You may have an iPhone but you are still using the free version of Tapatalk and spamming us with that knowledge]

[sms1986]

Begining to regret the South of France as my holiday choice this year!

This plays perfectly into the hands of Le Pen

The Islamists generally want people like Le Pen in power. They love the idea of causing divisions between Western Muslims and in-Muslim Westerners. More alienated Muslims in the West = more potential Islamist terrorists.

[Cliff Bastin]

Isn't that a direct quote from Bush?

Its true though.

[Cliff Bastin]

The Islamists generally want people like Le Pen in power. They love the idea of causing divisions between Western Muslims and in-Muslim Westerners. More alienated Muslims in the West = more potential Islamist terrorists.

So why so many Islamist attacks in Europe right now? It doesn't seem like we can go through a month or two without a terrorist attack from Islamists. Islamists just take advantage of European societies openness and general tolerance.

[Blinis]

So why so many Islamist attacks in Europe right now? It doesn't seem like we can go through a month or two without a terrorist attack from Islamists. Islamists just take advantage of European societies openness and general tolerance.

Which is why there is absolutely no terrorism in Arab countries 

[thelinnen]

You will get more and more of these incidents leading up to the elections. Having people like Trump and Le Pen in power helps with the extremists recruitment.

[GreatEx]

So why so many Islamist attacks in Europe right now? It doesn't seem like we can go through a month or two without a terrorist attack from Islamists. Islamists just take advantage of European societies openness and general tolerance.

How do you figure that? If the EU was disbanded, member states locked down their borders and banned/openly discriminated against Islam and Muslims, would there be fewer attacks? In what way does Europe's tolerance of races and religion permit or encourage extremist violence?

[Blinis]

New elements from French Police:

- the assailant did NOT figure on the biggest file the DCRI uses for individuals who might be attempting to threaten State safety (the "S" file, where you find Islamic wanna-be terrorist but radical political activists in general).
- the assailant was known to the Police, as he went to jail for 12 years between 2001 and 2013 for trying to shoot two policemen.
- he did not show any sign of belonging to the Muslim community. Most of people in his entourage say that he was a non-believer.
- investigations are ongoing

It starts to appear as a crime committed more out of anger for the Police than a religiously or politically motivated terror attack.