I'm fairly nonplussed about the Oscars this year.
Of the Best Picture nominees I've seen so far, Dune and Licorice Pizza are both worthy winners. Both are superb technical accomplishments while also delivering real emotional heft / great drama. Neither go down as one of my favourite movies ever, but they're IMO in a league of their own.
I liked Belfast a lot but that's likely to be somewhat down to my own experiences immigrating at about the same age as the lad, so it struck a chord with me. Really good film but I'm not sure whether the script was actually a bit superficial - I did think the directing was excellent though.
I haven't yet seen CODA but it looks like a middling crowdpleaser based on the trailer / reviews, King Richard was an Oscar-bait biopic but probably doesn't rise much further than that except that it has a slightly more original subject than most, The Power of the Dog I really wanted to like, and I think it's more than fine, but I'm a bit stunned at how it's been received both critically and by the Academy. It seems to be the odds on favourite but for mine it's probably at best a distant nominee in a field of 10 (and probably not at all in a field of 5). Nightmare Alley similarly probably is included because of a weak field. I liked it very much as a piece of pulpy, stylish entertainment (kinda similar to Grinding Nemo The Shape of Water), but less likely to win anything, but it's not Best Picture calibre.
Don't Look Up was unmitigated garbage and I enjoyed it all the less as someone who is very engaged with climate as an issue, because it's so embarrassingly clunky. Honestly don't know what the hell the Academy was thinking except that Leo is maybe a pretty influential person in the business?
Have not yet seen West Side Story but I want to like it - I was indifferent about the original.
Films unlucky to miss out
The Lost Daughter was for me one of the best 5 films of the year, easily. Pretty amazed it missed out actually because it was flat out excellent, and no less indie than some of what did get nominated. Olivia Colman is a shoo-in for Best Actress and Jessie Buckley is a decent shot at Best Supporting.
I find it quite interesting that exactly zero of the Best Actress films were nominated for Best Picture. To be fair, The Lost Daughter was the only really strong candidate of the 5, but it's a much stronger film than King Richard (Will Smith, Best actor nominee) for example. I wonder if it's actually some form of structural bias where the great roles for female actors are less within the Best Picture Oscar bait category and therefore get less lobbying support? Might just be idle speculation.