Topic: Champions League Final - Ticket Applications Now Open

[stonecold_jpm]

Seat number 130 here

20,670

anyone with a row no. higher than 159 or a seat no. than 130?

there will be adult/child as mentioned to add but at least we seem to be able to work out a rough estimate if its correct

[rizon]

20,670

anyone with a higher seat no. than 130?

there will be adult/child as mentioned to add but at least we seem to be able to work out a rough estimate if its correct

Seat 143, I hate to tell everyone :-(

[stonecold_jpm]

Seat 143, I hate to tell everyone :-(

22,737

[Birdontheshirt]

22,737
[/quote]

22737 would give a success probability of 24%.  Just under a 1 in 4 chance.  A lot better than my previous estimate of between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7. 

Seat 143 is an unusual number to finish a row on.  If seat numbers went up to a more rounded number ie. 150, that would give 23850.  A 23% success probability.

[rizon]

22,737


22737 would give a success probability of 24%.  Just under a 1 in 4 chance.  A lot better than my previous estimate of between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7. 

Seat 143 is an unusual number to finish a row on.  If seat numbers went up to a more rounded number ie. 150, that would give 23850.  A 23% success probability.

We should allow for a reasonable of procrastinators piling in late Sunday night or first thing Monday morning.

I would budget for a 20% chance. 

[rizon]

And only 6 people have put their row/seat numbers in this thread ... not a great sample set.

Still -- GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF US !!!

[Roy Cropper]

entered ballot Friday about 1pm
row83 seat 127

[Birdontheshirt]

We should allow for a reasonable of procrastinators piling in late Sunday night or first thing Monday morning.

I would budget for a 20% chance. 

The procrastinators are much less likely to be on rawk, so we might not get to hear from anyone who registered very late and what their seat/row number is.  I think you might be on the number though for 20%, a 1 in 5 chance.

And only 6 people have put their row/seat numbers in this thread ... not a great sample set.

I didn't enter my mate's row/seat number because they are numerically less than those already shouted out - nor did he enter the ballot late.  Doesn't seem much point in putting in row/seat numbers unless they help with the calculation.

[Grobbelrevell]

Ours, FWIW, were row 19, seats 27, 28 and 29.

So, as the above post states, not much help at all 

[ryanwain]

Row 163, Seat 11. Early hours Monday.

[OllieToner]

First thing friday, row 43, seat 133

[bono1712]

AD/AD/23/0011
AD/AD/23/0012

[stonecold_jpm]

Row 163, Seat 11. Early hours Monday.

23, 177 if the row ends in 143
24, 311 for 150

[Birdontheshirt]

Row 163, Seat 11. Early hours Monday.

This gives 23309.  (24450 if seat numbers go up to 150 on a row.)
23% success probability.  (Or 22% with the rounder number of 150 on a row).
We're moving closer to 1 in 5.

[Birdontheshirt]

23, 177 if the row ends in 143
24, 311 for 150

Got slightly different numbers from you.

[Harinder]

I've had a stab at trying to work out the probability of being successful in ballot.  I anticipate that I've made some errors, but posting here so others can improve on it.

Selling notice says that 63% of the tickets allocation of 16626 are available to general supporters i.e  10474

I’ve assumed that there are 5000 who are on 7+ credits, so that leaves 5474 tickets for those in the ballot.

The next part of my calculation looks at how many will enter the ballot. I’ve assumed that it will be everyone who got a seat at anfield roma home match less away supporters, uefa officials, priority rights holders, hospitality, and those who are on 7+ credits. 
(Priority rights holders and hospitality seasonal are identified in the selling notice as having a separate allocation of 4157 tickets.  That does leave non-seasonal hospitality, but I’ve assumed (wrongly or rightly) that given hospitality pricing & availability they are a group unlikely to have gone to every European home game.)

So the number in ballot may be 54074 (anfield capacity) minus 2904 (away supporters) minus 3055 (uefa ticket semi-final allocation according to their rule book) minus 7000 (our hospitality size according to a Guardian article) minus 1500 (number of priority rights according to a Liverpool echo article) minus 5000 (supporters with 7+ credits).   Assuming that all remaining supporters have 6+ credits (ie were in autocup or survived through the members additional sales) – which is a big assumption – then there would be 34615 persons in the ballot trying to access 5474 tickets.

This gives a probability of being successful in the ballot as 15.8%.  i.e. Between a 1 in 6 and 1 in 7 chance of getting a ticket.

Just FYI. Seasonal hospitality that qualifies for ticket is under 1000 people. Overall seasonal hospitality, including tiers that don’t qualify, is nowhere near 7000. More like 2,500 I think. From that total only some will enter ballot based on their tier.

It’s all a bit of a dark art to work this all out and I don’t envy anyone trying!

[Birdontheshirt]

See what you've done.  You've assumed that the seat given is the last one bought.  whereas I've gone to the end of the row.

[dudleyred]

Email confirmation of ballot entry now received

[rizon]

Email confirmation of ballot entry now received

likewise.

[ChrisLFCKOP]

Email confirmation of ballot entry now received

It only outlines 2 potential results though.

• Succesful
• Waiting list

Surely they are not putting everyone else on the waiting list.....so giving false hope to a significant number of fans.

[keano7]

Row 75 seats 22-24.

[keano7]

It only outlines 2 potential results though.

• Succesful
• Waiting list

Surely they are not putting everyone else on the waiting list.....so giving false hope to a significant number of fans.

I’d hope they’d give us at least a number in the waiting list. But probably not.

[ChrisLFCKOP]

I’d hope they’d give us at least a number in the waiting list. But probably not.

Would be nice but doubt it 

[rizon]

It only outlines 2 potential results though.

• Succesful
• Waiting list

Surely they are not putting everyone else on the waiting list.....so giving false hope to a significant number of fans.

Waiting list is for those who are registered for the ballot but were unsuccessful. 

[ChrisLFCKOP]

Waiting list is for those who are registered for the ballot but were unsuccessful.

I know what it is, but for Basel the club emailed unsuccesful emails to those without a chance.  At least you know where you stood on the matter.  Now 30k fans will be thinking they have a chance of a ticket.

[Mr.Savage]

Where is everyone seeing their seat number? I can't see it in my purchase history?

[anfieldpurch]

Where is everyone seeing their seat number? I can't see it in my purchase history?

Click the I next to the it and it comes up with a screen with the info

Mines - AD/AD/34/0078

[nickyd186]

I’d hope they’d give us at least a number in the waiting list. But probably not.

In the original details they said the following.......


Once the sale to supporters successful in the ballot has ended, any available tickets will be made available to supporters on the waiting list in chronological order.

Supporters added to the waiting list can find out if they are eligible to purchase by visiting Latest Ticket News from 10am Tuesday 15 May.

To me that sounds like they will give you a number then publish on Tuesday a range of the numbers on the waiting list that can buy on a guaranteed sale  which will most prob take place tues 2pm till weds 8.15 am

[petethekopite]

Dont know about anybody else but i would rather see nothing there than to give false hope...

It has lead to people overthinking what it could mean, personally i reckon it is a unique number allocated so you arent a real name in a hat, its more likely a sequential number on a very long list... It definitely does not reflect an area of the ground from what i can see!?



 

[Birdontheshirt]

Dont know about anybody else but i would rather see nothing there than to give false hope...

It has lead to people overthinking what it could mean, personally i reckon it is a unique number allocated so you arent a real name in a hat, its more likely a sequential number on a very long list... It definitely does not reflect an area of the ground from what i can see!?

My guess is that the seat/row label you were given when you registered for the ballot is nothing to do with the process of being drawn in the ballot itself.  Because it is normally used for ticket sales, the software that the club use for registering ballot applications is geared up to allocating a 'seat' in a stadium.  Because the software seems to have allocated people sequentially into seats ie one after another along rows, stonecold_jpm helpfully realised it is a way to estimate the number of people that have registered in the ballot (and knowing that number means you can better estimate probability of being successful in the ballot).

I do think it would help people to plan if they are informed of position on the waiting list.  If you knew you were at position 2 on the waiting list you might be prepared to take the risk and book a flight before they go up even higher in price.  Whereas if you are at position 2002, you might be resigning yourself to staying in the uk.

[CONFIAMOS]

Why are people fussing about seat numbers? It will have absolutely no bearing upon the outcome of the independent ballot!

[Hightown Phil]

Why are people fussing about seat numbers? It will have absolutely no bearing upon the outcome of the independent ballot!

They aren’t.

They’re trying to figure out how many are in the ballot using seat numbers.

[rizon]

I know what it is, but for Basel the club emailed unsuccesful emails to those without a chance.  At least you know where you stood on the matter.  Now 30k fans will be thinking they have a chance of a ticket.

Hopefully they will get it right this time!

[actwithoutwords]

In the original details they said the following.......


Once the sale to supporters successful in the ballot has ended, any available tickets will be made available to supporters on the waiting list in chronological order.

Supporters added to the waiting list can find out if they are eligible to purchase by visiting Latest Ticket News from 10am Tuesday 15 May.

To me that sounds like they will give you a number then publish on Tuesday a range of the numbers on the waiting list that can buy on a guaranteed sale  which will most prob take place tues 2pm till weds 8.15 am

What does chronological order mean! The order in which you registered for the ballot?!

[rizon]

What does chronological order mean! The order in which you registered for the ballot?!

I think it means the order that results from the ballot process.  The computer will randomly allocate number 1--> xxxxx for each applicant.  So if it's 5k tickets available 1-->5000  will have the chance to buy.  After the deadline has passed, any remaining unsold will be offered to 5001 onwards ...

[CONFIAMOS]

They aren’t.

They’re trying to figure out how many are in the ballot using seat numbers.

Some are yeah!

Are these the same people that put all the tickets in their baskets to see how many are left....

[Claire.]

Some are yeah!

Are these the same people that put all the tickets in their baskets to see how many are left....

Not doing any harm, is it?

[CONFIAMOS]

Not doing any harm, is it?

Haha guess it passes the time

[andy07]

As I pass the time at lunch, for comparison Madrid allocated 12802 tickets to their ballot for “members”.  They received 8581 applications for 24268 tickets.  So a 50:50 chance in their ballot which has already taken place which will give their fans a headstart in the scramble for remaining transport.

[Hij]

Can’t hack this tension, just wanna know either way. It’s like the jury’s out and you’re waiting on the verdict!