Maybe a ten Pm curfew, 6pm does not make
Sense
I shop at night and go for a run too
Same Spen, I'm not ditching my evening run, especially when exercise is so important for health. But looking at the recent transmission data we're seeing not only high levels of transmission, but that transmission moving into the more elderly population which is going to filter through to hospitalisations. The government probably thinks if there is another gear they can go up they need to use it, and as much as curfews feel 'un-British' they are a clear signal of how desperate things are getting.
Positive test number don't tell the full story, but the age ranges of those positives indicate who is likely to show up to hospital in the next two weeks. We're seeing a shift to a larger number of elderly both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of the total (likely also due to school closures but notice the drop in 20-29 cohort)
Regional variation (via upper tier local authority data in England):
Some interesting discussion points from the following
Which would indicate as hospitalisations per case are down by 50% that a large amount of people staying at home and fighting this in the community, and hospitals being at the point of accepting desatting patients only (or on the cusp of). We're seeing half of those who would have attended hospital in Nov not be admitted which may be why we're seeing higher death rates come through - from deaths in the community or those who only get admitted very late.
Considering time to death from a Covid infection is circa 3 weeks and we're dealing with lagged data, agree we haven't yet seen the worst of this for probably 3 more weeks by the time the data comes through. Particularly as we're at hospital capacity now so any further infections will need to be dealt with in the community and escalated very late.
