Recent Posts

1

Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by jepovic on Today at 07:37:12 am »

I would be shocked if he's sold this summer anyway. He's got bags of potential, and maybe a new manager will help him.
Also, I dont think he will hit the post 11 times or whatever one more season

Salah seems to be on his way out and lots of rumours around Diaz, and I dont think we want too much change.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: The corruption fallacy - they’re all out to get us!

« Last post by Mister Flip Flop on Today at 07:34:08 am »

If the Spurs, Man City, West Ham and Arsenal decisions hadn't been called against us we'd be top of the table right now. I can't ever remember this much corruption against another team in this league.

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News and Current Affairs / Re: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

« Last post by red_Mark1980 on Today at 07:33:28 am »

There's something in my head that if the Tories don't do as bad as expected the half pint minister may pull the trigger on a GE. Unless he seriously expects this Rwanda plane to win back the "red wall"

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General Football and Sport / Re: NBA Discussion

« Last post by TheFinalBoss on Today at 07:33:20 am »

Anthony Edwards is something special, when his career is over and done with I honestly think he will go down as a top five player of all time

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The Boozer / Re: Holidays 2024 - What's your plans?

« Last post by red_Mark1980 on Today at 07:30:45 am »

Has anyone been to Manila?

My missus might have to go there for a week and might tag along with the kids.

Is it worth it? What is there to see? I know very little about it.

The food will be amazing.
My good lady was born there (her mum is Filipino) and we are going in November.

I've never been and she only went as a kid to see family so we are looking into a couple of trips.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Mohamed Salah - Best in the World *

« Last post by edeyj on Today at 07:28:18 am »

Storm in a rea cup.

Yesterday's headlines, today's chip paper.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by Knight on Today at 07:27:30 am »

So Jota being over his xG this season is definitely an outlier despite him doing very similar before, but the season that Nunez outperformed his xG wasn't, despite that only happening for one season in the past five?  I'm not getting into the bulk of the other stuff you wrote as it largely consists of intangibles that can't be properly measured such as 'luck'.

And what is this?: " his one season of overperforming his xG is enough to cause him to be basically hitting his xG over his career guess what, he's not undershooting his xG by very much".
 So, it's ok that he's underperforms his xG almost every season (4 out of the past five) because he had one really good season, so it all evens out? That's not how it works. 

Incidentally, do you have somewhere that I can see the stats for "high value shots"? All I am able to find is total shots on goal. As far as that goes, Nunez has the highest amount in the league with 104 shots, but only has 11 goals, which other players in the league have managed with around 40 shots on goal.  This appears to indicate that finishing ability is more of a factor than you give it credit for.  I am not suggesting that total shots aren't a factor at all, but of the top ten scorers in the league eight of them are above their xG (Salah is slightly below his as is Haaland for the first time ever) and every one of them has outperformed their xG for multiple seasons.  That indicates that finishing ability is not overemphasized as you claim.

...and of course there's that too. 

Re Jota - why are you still saying this? He's doubled his xG this season. No one does that once you get to a decent sample size. It's not that being over his xG is an outlier (he's been over and under for us), it's being double his xG which is the outlier. Jota's output, over a large enough sample size, will probably revert to the mean. That's just xG being xG. Some players will marginally outperform it and there will be some outliers who overperform it significantly. But plenty of great goal scorers (Jota is a good example actually) will basically hit their xG over a large enough sample size.  Nunez's numbers, like everyone elses, will tend towards the mean. It's no surprise that his have done that over a large enough sample size. I'm not saying his season overshooting his xG is representative. I'm saying his performance over his career is representative. You're saying that we can ignore a part of the data sample as an anomaly whilst focussing on other parts of the data sample. But that's not how data works. And of course if you want to get into finishing skill etc you're going to have to explain how Nunez over performed that season in Portugal - presumably you think it was luck? That is, the intangibles that you're deriding me for relying on. In reality variance really matters in goal scoring, chances which 'should' be taken are actually less likely to be taken than we think and the biggest predictor of high scoring output is high value shot output.

Nunez takes lots of high value shots because per 90 his xG is high and per 90 his shot numbers are high. He's less efficient with the shots he does take than Jota (who is unbelievably good at shot selection, I can't recall seeing him shoot from outside the box, like ever) but he's getting lots of good chances to score goals. He absolutely needs to score more of them in the future but it's not going to change his numbers that much even if he does. His goals per 90 numbers are already really good. This has been said a million times by multiple posters in this thread and has fallen on deaf ears (and hasn't stopped silly comments like the one from collytum above) but anyway, there it is.

As for the comments about finishing - who's arguing Nunez is a better goalscorer than Jota? That's not the conversation being had in comparing them.

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General Football and Sport / Re: Arsenal: Top of the divers league

« Last post by ScottishGoon on Today at 07:26:03 am »

Funny how quick the cheating is accepted.

It was just what you actually said to make your point, ending with ‘White standing in front of the keeper’, I just found it funny. If you had said obstructed or impeded then it would have been a bit more dramatic.

I don't agree with the notion that we need them to win the league to prove they are cheating c*nts. Facts, figures, accounts and investigations can only prove that. And has been - hence 115.
They might win leagues because they are cheating c*nts, but we shouldn't want title wins to prove it, that doesn't get them punished. Relevant information only proves it.

Exactly John, I don’t get the line of argument that City winning will help expose how corrupt the league is, and maybe more pressure will be applied to damage them, or words to that affect.

Whoever wins the league, City, Arsenal, Liverpool or anyone else in the future, it won’t change any punishment 1 iota. City’s punishment will be decided in a court room, by a score of lawyers and people in suits that will get even more wealthy as this 1 will drag and drag I think. And that being the case, they’ll hire a massive team of the best lawyers and try and run rings round the accusations.

There’s now nothing on the pitch that happens now, will affect what happens off the pitch at these hearings, and to think so is just massively clutching at straws.

Better to just say you prefer City to win the league because everyone is used to them winning it now, and if anyone else like Arsenal wins it then it becomes a bit of an event, like Clint eventually does. That’s honest, instead of coming up with a justification that it might damage the cheats long term, when it won’t make any difference whatsoever.

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News and Current Affairs / Re: MPs back smoking ban for those born after 2009

« Last post by redbyrdz on Today at 07:23:54 am »

There was a fair amount of resistance in some quarters to the smoking ban in public places but I can't see that legislation ever being undone. It's been an absolute godsend for those of us who've never smoked. My Mum always used to complain that I stunk like an old ashtray when I got home from the match or the pub 

To be honest, I was surprised how well the smoking ban went, and how quickly it was adopted. But as you said, its nice to be able to go out and not come back stinking.

The difference to this new ban is that there is no quick benefit to anybody. It just makes getting hold of tobacco harder for a proportion of the population. It doesn't automatically reduce the amount of smokers or the places where they can smoke.
It might do so over time, but we're talking decades.

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General Football and Sport / Re: LIVERPOOL TRANSFER THREAD - 2023 (FSG posts = get muted) - No Mbappé

« Last post by TepidT2O on Today at 07:15:59 am »

Apparently, according the bbc gossip thingy, Geertruida was at the West Ham gam.

Not been mentioned on here mate