Topic: LFC's next manager - chat and informed speculation

[farawayred]

This may look dead and buried now, however come next week, Alonso coming to Liverpool, will be alive and back on.



Trust me, it’s Easter.

You couldn't wait three fucking days! 

[ItzdoctorZ]

I certainly wouldn't be averse to Emery coming in.

He failed at Arsenal remember

[CHOPPER]

You couldn't wait three fucking days! 

You sound cross.

[farawayred]

You sound cross.

You nailed it!

[meady1981]

You sound cross.

He can’t cope with the stigmata

[Garlic Red]

I’m no analytics whizz but sometimes I’ll have a nosey on the sites to see if I can find any numbers that might change my pre existing views on something. We all know De Zerbi has been bordering on elite at times with some of Brighton’s offensive stats for things like chances created, shots etc I’m not sure there needs to be much discussion around that.

I’m really curious about the idea that he can’t coach a defence, I’m guessing because they’ve had a few mad results where they’ve let a few in. I’m not sure that’s a stick to measure coaching a defence with like, I can remember Honigstein saying Jurgen was prone to the odd game where it would all go wrong when he was at Dortmund.

I was looking on understat at the xG table for this season and I looked at last season’s from when RDZ joined (October 1st was his first game, away at Anfield). Last season they were 9th for xGA, sandwiched between Spurs and Chelsea, in that time we were 12th, however we and Brighton had played 32 games, some sides had played 31 and some numbers were quite close, so not really amazing, but he was seen as an offensive coach compared to Potter. If you look a bit closer and filter to non-penalty xGA, they were actually fifth last season since he joined Brighton. That’s pretty decent.

This season Brighton are 4th for xGA behind Arsenal, City and ourselves. They’re actually closer to us than we are to Arsenal or City. Again, not bad. They’re also 4th for non-penalty xGA.

As I said, I’m no whizz and I understand xG and xGA aren’t to everyone’s tastes. But he’s managing a wage bill around 14th/15th in the league, they’ve sold their best players in the summer and he’s still been able to get solid underlying numbers. As always, I’m not advocating for him to get the job here, I do think he deserves a lot more respect than we’re showing him on here.

[alonsoisared]

Objectively, this is a good move by Alonso. He’s in absolutely no rush. If he is the second coming, a couple more years will prove that at Leverkusen. And he’ll more than likely still have the pick of us, Bayern or Real.

I agree with this. It's a very Xabi decision. Keeping calm, sticking to the plan. Management is a long career and there's no need to rush it. Making the Stevie comparison, he jumped out of a job he was building a lot of credit in for the first big club that came knocking and it ultimately proved too soon. If he'd stayed at Rangers, won another title, continued his good work in Europe then his name would be featuring much more prominently in this thread.

Another year at Leverkusen can't really harm him. Bayern will still be favourites for the league, they won't be expected to go that deep into the champions league, he pretty much gets a pass whatever happens and probably learns a lot in the process. Big clubs will still want him on the strength of this season. If he competes again and does well in the Champions League then his stock would be right up there with the highest in Europe. Win win for him, really.

The balls on him to turn down Liverpool and Bayern Munich, though. I had my reservations about him but he was the best candidate.

If it wasn't time for a name change in 2009, it might be now

[Crosby Nick]

What about that fat Australian bloke not Harold Bishop the other one

Big Kev?

[CHOPPER]

You nailed it!

He can’t cope with the stigmata

,
Today, is not a good day, lads. This kind of news is nothing new, and is testament to why we should not rest on our laurels.

[Banquo's Ghost]

,
Today, is not a good day, lads. This kind of news is nothing new, and is testament to why we should not rest on our laurels.

So you’re washing your hands of Alonso?

[Stockholm Syndrome]

Is Amorim not doing something similar as Klopp? Two teams out spending them every year and still competing. Doing well in Europe when you compare their squad to others. I suppose there is more transfer spend in England than two over us but not wages wise we are up there.

Is there anyone in that sporting side that gets into our squad?

Similar but I wouldn't say completely comparable. The size of the challenge between Dortmund and Bayern is greater than that of Sporting and Benfica/Porto. So far the consistency of success is different as well; Amorim won it one year, close but didn't the next year, dropped off the next yea afterr, and this year he might win it again but he might not (one point ahead of Benfica having to play Benfica and Porto still), compared to Klopp winning twice on the run. Of course size of the league as well, Germany to Portugal.

The Europe thing as well is comparable but not quite; Klopp reached a CL final and Amorim has reached CL last 16 or Europa League Quarter Final (depending on which you count as a higher achievement) - although tbf in Klopps first 2 years in CL under Dortmund he didn't get past the group stage

So it's comparable but lesser I would say, even with the caveat of it being a smaller team in a smaller league I would say the achievement is lesser

[ItzdoctorZ]

Similar but I wouldn't say completely comparable. The size of the challenge between Dortmund and Bayern is greater than that of Sporting and Benfica/Porto. So far the consistency of success is different as well; Amorim won it one year, close but didn't the next year, dropped off the next yea afterr, and this year he might win it again but he might not (one point ahead of Benfica having to play Benfica and Porto still), compared to Klopp winning twice on the run. Of course size of the league as well, Germany to Portugal.

The Europe thing as well is comparable but not quite; Klopp reached a CL final and Amorim has reached CL last 16 or Europa League Quarter Final (depending on which you count as a higher achievement) - although tbf in Klopps first 2 years in CL under Dortmund he didn't get past the group stage

So it's comparable but lesser I would say, even with the caveat of it being a smaller team in a smaller league I would say the achievement is lesser

Sporting had not won their league in 19 years so it's a huge achievement, and this season he does have a game in hand so he could be 4 points clear.

[RedG13]

I’m no analytics whizz but sometimes I’ll have a nosey on the sites to see if I can find any numbers that might change my pre existing views on something. We all know De Zerbi has been bordering on elite at times with some of Brighton’s offensive stats for things like chances created, shots etc I’m not sure there needs to be much discussion around that.

I’m really curious about the idea that he can’t coach a defence, I’m guessing because they’ve had a few mad results where they’ve let a few in. I’m not sure that’s a stick to measure coaching a defence with like, I can remember Honigstein saying Jurgen was prone to the odd game where it would all go wrong when he was at Dortmund.

I was looking on understat at the xG table for this season and I looked at last season’s from when RDZ joined (October 1st was his first game, away at Anfield). Last season they were 9th for xGA, sandwiched between Spurs and Chelsea, in that time we were 12th, however we and Brighton had played 32 games, some sides had played 31 and some numbers were quite close, so not really amazing, but he was seen as an offensive coach compared to Potter. If you look a bit closer and filter to non-penalty xGA, they were actually fifth last season since he joined Brighton. That’s pretty decent.

This season Brighton are 4th for xGA behind Arsenal, City and ourselves. They’re actually closer to us than we are to Arsenal or City. Again, not bad. They’re also 4th for non-penalty xGA.

As I said, I’m no whizz and I understand xG and xGA aren’t to everyone’s tastes. But he’s managing a wage bill around 14th/15th in the league, they’ve sold their best players in the summer and he’s still been able to get solid underlying numbers. As always, I’m not advocating for him to get the job here, I do think he deserves a lot more respect than we’re showing him on here.

He has overperformed his Wage bill at least at 2 clubs, Brighton and Sassuolo. Dominated with Shakhtar in Ukraine too, He also won coach of year in Serie A for Benevento even though they got relegated. I would be pretty shocked if he didnt rate well from the metrics

[killer-heels]

Similar but I wouldn't say completely comparable. The size of the challenge between Dortmund and Bayern is greater than that of Sporting and Benfica/Porto. So far the consistency of success is different as well; Amorim won it one year, close but didn't the next year, dropped off the next yea afterr, and this year he might win it again but he might not (one point ahead of Benfica having to play Benfica and Porto still), compared to Klopp winning twice on the run. Of course size of the league as well, Germany to Portugal.

The Europe thing as well is comparable but not quite; Klopp reached a CL final and Amorim has reached CL last 16 or Europa League Quarter Final (depending on which you count as a higher achievement) - although tbf in Klopps first 2 years in CL under Dortmund he didn't get past the group stage

So it's comparable but lesser I would say, even with the caveat of it being a smaller team in a smaller league I would say the achievement is lesser

To be fair to Amorim, Klopp had the better side. Likes of Hummels, Reus, Gundogan, Lewandowski have proven to be top quality footballers.

[Zlen]

I'd probably prefer Nagelsmann out of remaining candidates if it wasn't for the Euros. And don't give me the 'skateboards to work' crap, I don't give a fuck. He plays god football and is pretty experienced and successful for his age.

[killer-heels]

He has overperformed his Wage bill at least at 2 clubs, Brighton and Sassuolo. Dominated with Shakhtar in Ukraine too, He also won coach of year in Serie A for Benevento even though they got relegated. I would be pretty shocked if he didnt rate well from the metrics

I read that his family live in Italy apparently.

[killer-heels]

I'd probably prefer Nagelsmann out of remaining candidates if it wasn't for the Euros. And don't give me the 'skateboards to work' crap, I don't give a fuck. He plays god football and is pretty experienced and successful for his age.

His football isnt that good. Its pretty defensive. Its also not his skateboard thing that makes him a bit of a twat and its a bit odd how people are bringing that up. His character and judgement has not been great and i would put good money on him losing the players within 12 months,

[RedG13]

I read that his family live in Italy apparently.

Idk how much that a factor. It possible he just doesnt want to move his kids from their school and friends also. Not sure how much that matters.

[Garlic Red]

Similar but I wouldn't say completely comparable. The size of the challenge between Dortmund and Bayern is greater than that of Sporting and Benfica/Porto. So far the consistency of success is different as well; Amorim won it one year, dropped off the next year, and this year he might win it again but he might not (one point ahead of Benfica having to play Benfica and Porto still), compared to Klopp winning twice on the run. Of course size of the league as well, Germany to Portugal.

The Europe thing as well is comparable but not quite; Klopp reached a CL final and Amorim has reached CL last 16 or Europa League Quarter Final (depending on which you count as a higher achievement) - although tbf in Klopps first 2 years in CL under Dortmund he didn't get past the group stage

So it's comparable but lesser I would say, even with the caveat of it being a smaller team in a smaller league I would say the achievement is lesser

Also needs to be said, he won the league, they were second the next season with the same points total (85), then they lost Palhinha and Matheus Nunes, fell off quite a bit that season and now look to be strong again, they also lost Ugarte last summer. Jurgen also struggled with losing key players during his time at Dortmund. 13/14 for example, Gotze went to Bayern and Gundogan missed the entire season through injury.

We can’t predict injuries, but I’d like to think any manager coming here should feel sound in our ability to keep players for their peak years. If we don’t, there’s a strong chance we’ll reinvest it well.

[lionel_messias]

My hunch is Ruben Amorim will be our next manager; a bet that he's shaping up
to be the next great coach out of Portugal, we'll know in 2 weeks if Sporting look in good shape for
a second league title under him.

Hate to be 'a told you so' twat, I had a feeling it wouldn't be Alonso and the analytics would point to Ruben A.

The man who prepared Manual Ugarte, Paulinha, and Inacio....

[killer-heels]

Idk how much that a factor. It possible he just doesnt want to move his kids from their school and friends also. Not sure how much that matters.

It might not be and i dont know how old his kids are. Would question De Zerbi’s long term plans in that sense. I think him and Thomas Frank have been criticised on here more than thats fair. I think he is a good manager.

However I think the issue the next manager is going to have is being met as an underwhelming choice doesnt bode well for a manager of this club, long term.

[spider-neil]

With regard to playing style, turnover of players, and longevity (there will be a circus around Alonso when the Real job becomes available) Amorim might have been the coaching staff's first choice all along. I'm actually leaning toward Amorim myself. I prefer a counter-pressing style of play to out-and-out possession football.

[Fromola]

I don't want De Zerbi simply because of the defensive side but he shouldn't be completely overlooked. They've been fairly shite this year but it's somewhat of a re build. He lost his midfield and the forwards aren't firing, hence the shite season. If Klopp said he was leaving last season at the same time how high would he be on people's lists? I'd guess top for many.

That 5-0 at home to Everton last season was the most embarrassing performance i've ever watched in the Premier League, closely followed by Scotty Parker's Bournemouth at Anfield.

That amateur hour from De Zerbi that day is why Everton are still in the PL.

[Garlic Red]

With regard to playing style, turnover of players, and longevity (there is will a circus around Alonso when the Real job becomes available) Amorim might have been the coaching staff's first choice all along.

Are the coaching staff recruiting the coaching staff these days? 

[killer-heels]

With regard to playing style, turnover of players, and longevity (there is will a circus around Alonso when the Real job becomes available) Amorim might have been the coaching staff's first choice all along.

I can totally understand the lure of Madrid for a player, but a manager? Its crazy. But then again I didnt elevate Alonso’s character to this ridiculous level that others seemed to.

[killer-heels]

That 5-0 at home to Everton last season was the most embarrassing performance i've ever watched in the Premier League, closely followed by Scotty Parker's Bournemouth at Anfield.

That amateur hour from De Zerbi that day is why Everton are still in the PL.

Losing 4-0 to Luton is pretty crazy as well.

[spider-neil]

I wouldn't be against De Zerbi. He lost his best players and his underlying numbers are still good. However, with Alonso off the table Amorim is my clear first choice.

[Fromola]

Losing 4-0 to Luton is pretty crazy as well.

6-1 at Villa, 4-0 at Roma. Similar to Roberto Martinez or Hasenhutl.

He's a purist who can only set up a team one way. If a game goes against him he won't adapt, he'll sit back and watch them get battered.

[spider-neil]

6-1 at Villa, 4-0 at Roma. Similar to Roberto Martinez or Hasenhutl.

He's a purist who can only set up a team one way. If a game goes against him he won't adapt, he'll sit back and watch them get battered.

With the players he currently has available,

[Redbonnie]

I can totally understand the lure of Madrid for a player, but a manager? Its crazy. But then again I didnt elevate Alonso’s character to this ridiculous level that others seemed to.

Let’s twat his side all over Dublin and show him what he could have had.

[killer-heels]

6-1 at Villa, 4-0 at Roma. Similar to Roberto Martinez or Hasenhutl.

He's a purist who can only set up a team one way.

I wouldnt go that far and Klopp’s team were prone to a thrashing as well. I think De Zerbi is a good manager but it to me feels like too many are buying into the nerd numbers and all that analytic, wage bill stuff with him. It takes more then that to be a good manager and especially at a club like ours.

Thats why someone like Amorim i would imagine sits more favourably, in that being in Lisbon he knows the passion that comes with local rivalry. I dont believe for one second that this club can be like a Brighton or some foreign club where the structure is key and the guy in the dugout is some interchangeable coach, our fans would not allow it and we would want to lionise the manager.

[Pistolero]

Dreadfully disappointing news about Alonso....had successfully managed to kid myself that he was a done deal - mainly in order to take the edge off Jurgen's bombshell announcement that he's spewing it forthwith....Xabi - with his current stock sky high and his LFC history - promised an exciting and romantic passing of the torch ......we're now left with no obvious or desired contender from what is mainly a humdrum pool of uninspiring Premier League second raters ..backed by Bournemouth's backroom staff......I'm already not looking forward to next season

[Stockholm Syndrome]

Sporting had not won their league in 19 years so it's a huge achievement, and this season he does have a game in hand so he could be 4 points clear.

It's an achievement yes, but Sporting is the 3rd biggest club in Portugal even in those 19 years, and I don't think the gap in size between Sporting and Benfica/Porto is as great as Dortmund and Bayern - even when Dortmund where winning Bayern were taking their best players that's the size disparity

Didn't realize the game in hand tbf

To be fair to Amorim, Klopp had the better side. Likes of Hummels, Reus, Gundogan, Lewandowski have proven to be top quality footballers.

He did absolutely. I am trying to view it in terms of comparison. Should that Dortmund team have reach a CL final, it's maybe an overachievement. Should that Sporting side reach last 16, probably at a minimum and then it all depends on who you get, Portuguese sides tend to get to Quarters quite regularly but they came up against City so no one expected them to get past that.

Also needs to be said, he won the league, they were second the next season with the same points total (85), then they lost Palhinha and Matheus Nunes, fell off quite a bit that season and now look to be strong again, they also lost Ugarte last summer. Jurgen also struggled with losing key players during his time at Dortmund. 13/14 for example, Gotze went to Bayern and Gundogan missed the entire season through injury.

We can’t predict injuries, but I’d like to think any manager coming here should feel sound in our ability to keep players for their peak years. If we don’t, there’s a strong chance we’ll reinvest it well.

Yeah absolutely, I didn't think you can call anything that Amorim has done at Sporting bad, worst you can say is in Europe he hasn't exceeded expectations but met them, everywhere else he has exceeded.

What I am saying is the level of that achievement I don't think is as great as the achievement Klopp had at Dortmund - even if you factor in for size and quality I don't think it's quite as great as Klopp's at Dortmund.

And again I mention the thing with him, he is very young and doing this in a lower league, he's probably going to need a good few years to grow both dealing with tactics at this level, expectations, and managing this level of player. Not having players consistently rotated out due to transfers is itself a change in the norm for him.

He is far from a finished article or a surefire bet, much like if we bring a 21 year old player from the Portuguese league, we should also set our expectations for the manager and not expect him to challenge or get anywhere near what Klopp has done with us for a fair while I would say

[spider-neil]

Dreadfully disappointing news about Alonso....had successfully managed to kid myself that he was a done deal - mainly in order to take the edge off Jurgen's bombshell announcement that he's spewing it forthwith....Xabi - with his current stock sky high and his LFC history - promised an exciting and romantic passing of the torch ......we're now left with no obvious or desired contender from what is mainly a humdrum pool of uninspiring Premier League second raters ..backed by Bournemouth's backroom staff......I'm already not looking forward to next season

I wasn't all in on Alonso to the extent not getting him would colour my expectations for next season. Heck, the more I read about Amorim the more he is becoming my preferred choice.

[spider-neil]

It's an achievement yes, but Sporting is the 3rd biggest club in Portugal even in those 19 years, and I don't think the gap in size between Sporting and Benfica/Porto is as great as Dortmund and Bayern - even when Dortmund where winning Bayern were taking their best players that's the size disparity

Didn't realize the game in hand tbf

He did absolutely. I am trying to view it in terms of comparison. Should that Dortmund team have reach a CL final, it's maybe an overachievement. Should that Sporting side reach last 16, probably at a minimum and then it all depends on who you get, Portuguese sides tend to get to Quarters quite regularly but they came up against City so no one expected them to get past that.

Yeah absolutely, I didn't think you can call anything that Amorim has done at Sporting bad, worst you can say is in Europe he hasn't exceeded expectations but met them, everywhere else he has exceeded.

What I am saying is the level of that achievement I don't think is as great as the achievement Klopp had at Dortmund - even if you factor in for size and quality I don't think it's quite as great as Klopp's at Dortmund.

And again I mention the thing with him, he is very young and doing this in a lower league, he's probably going to need a good few years to grow both dealing with tactics at this level, expectations, and managing this level of player. Not having players consistently rotated out due to transfers is itself a change in the norm for him.

He is far from a finished article or a surefire bet, much like if we bring a 21 year old player from the Portuguese league, we should also set our expectations for the manager and not expect him to challenge or get anywhere near what Klopp has done with us for a fair while I would say

The context you have to apply with Amorim is the model is to sell the best players season on season. Ugarte and Paulinha sold and he has still delivered results.

[Fromola]

I wouldnt go that far and Klopp’s team were prone to a thrashing as well. I think De Zerbi is a good manager but it to me feels like too many are buying into the nerd numbers and all that analytic, wage bill stuff with him. It takes more then that to be a good manager and especially at a club like ours.

Thats why someone like Amorim i would imagine sits more favourably, in that being in Lisbon he knows the passion that comes with local rivalry. I dont believe for one second that this club can be like a Brighton or some foreign club where the structure is key and the guy in the dugout is some interchangeable coach, our fans would not allow it and we would want to lionise the manager.

It's good we've got the structure in place now but there needs to be an acceptance that the manager is the most important person at the club,  not the nerds.

It doesn't matter how good your scouting and data is, if the manager isn't up to it. Look at the Rodgers years. The wrong manager will make everyone look bad, the right manager makes everyone look good (obviously Klopp).

We need a manager who is the right tactical fit for the squad as well. Rodgers clearly wasn't and it's similar with Ten Hag at United who came in off the back of playing the Ajax way, yet United are still the same sit in and counter attack team they've been for ages.

[Sonofthewind]

Hate to be 'a told you so' twat, I had a feeling it wouldn't be Alonso and the analytics would point to Ruben A.

The man who prepared Manual Ugarte, Paulinha, and Inacio....

Well, we don’t know who the analytics hve pointed between Alonso and Amorim. Sounds like Alonso has made his own decision. Nothing to do with our analytics. We don’t even know if it’s Amorim yet. Lol

[Draex]

I wouldn't be against De Zerbi. He lost his best players and his underlying numbers are still good. However, with Alonso off the table Amorim is my clear first choice.

I’m the same, De Zerbi had a huge rebuild on much less money last summer. Caicedo, Colwill, Mac Allister and Sanchez is a huge hole in your team, it was basically their spine. He’s still a very good manager, Brighton have been better than City against us before, literally blown us away, that’s a good manager behind those teams.

I do personally feel Amorim is a done deal and has been sometime, lots of snippets out there how he’s the one scoring top on spearman’s analytics.

[Fromola]

Well, we don’t know who the analytics hve pointed between Alonso and Amorim. Sounds like Alonso has made his own decision. Nothing to do with our analytics.

I don't think it was a case of we've been sat back waiting for an answer off Alonso. We're drawing up a shortlist but Alonso is unavailable so isn't on it.

[Draex]

It's good we've got the structure in place now but there needs to be an acceptance that the manager is the most important person at the club,  not the nerds.

It doesn't matter how good your scouting and data is, if the manager isn't up to it. Look at the Rodgers years. The wrong manager will make everyone look bad, the right manager makes everyone look good (obviously Klopp).

We need a manager who is the right tactical fit for the squad as well. Rodgers clearly wasn't and it's similar with Ten Hag at United who came in off the back of playing the Ajax way, yet United are still the same sit in and counter attack team they've been for ages.

You do realise Alonso is the least tactical fit of all the managers linked yes?