Topic: League Cup

[RainbowFlick]

is a bit grim but does sound like something that could be passed on in a will

was told it explicitly says 'lifetime' but it is what it is, they made a fair deal. more of an issue with sponsors taking up seats.

[UntouchableLuis]

Am I right in thinking even if me and my mate are both successful in separate ballot applications it will be near impossible to actually sit by each other at the match as you then have to apply for your seat and i imagine 2 together will go very quickly.

[Hij]

Am I right in thinking even if me and my mate are both successful in separate ballot applications it will be near impossible to actually sit by each other at the match as you then have to apply for your seat and i imagine 2 together will go very quickly.

If you're connected you just buy as you normally would when you log in. Two together might not be so difficult if one of you gets in early. Seeing as you'll both be in the same sale you may as well see the lay of the land on the day. As you'll both be queuing for the same game if someone gets in quite quick they can just box two off and the other person won't even need to login.

I mean to be honest 2 together is hardly even 4 together, you should be sound for 2 I think considering only the very very last people in will go last as because everyone will qualify the sale won't be over subscribed.

[red number 9]

I've heard a few times that the PRH's last 99 years. Not sure if there is any substance to that or just something somebody made up that's been passed on.

The priority rights are non-transferrable and remain valid until death or the year 2107, whichever is sooner.  Theoretically, I doubt anything would stop someone else purchasing tickets using them as they're essentially all on-line sales these days with a secondary supporter ID to your membership.

[shaunNW]

I'm right in saying that I'm guaranteed even tho on my dad's St we distributed one game

[CornerTakenQuickly]

The priority rights are non-transferrable and remain valid until death or the year 2107, whichever is sooner.  Theoretically, I doubt anything would stop someone else purchasing tickets using them as they're essentially all on-line sales these days with a secondary supporter ID to your membership.

Can see all those 130 year old priority rights holders screaming at the club "loyalty means nothing" in 2107, when it's taken away from them.

[CornerTakenQuickly]

I'm right in saying that I'm guaranteed even tho on my dad's St we distributed one game

Yeah, the credit stays with the original purchaser.

[keano7]

I'm right in saying that I'm guaranteed even tho on my dad's St we distributed one game

Guaranteed if you’ve been to at least one away and 2 homes. The ST holder keeps the credit despite the ticket being distributed.

[timmit]

Can see all those 130 year old priority rights holders screaming at the club "loyalty means nothing" in 2107, when it's taken away from them.

I'll guarantee if you come back here in 2107, there will be such a thread

[lukeypool]

How many tickets go to players family and friend and club sponsors

[lukeypool]

Right…. So been doing some maths. Working out probability’s etc. for people who have applied in groups the odds of being successful are actually around 20% mark. As apposed to those who registered indivaully would be around the 45-55% mark, that’s when you take into account people would of applied in groups etc.

[lukeypool]

If everyone applied individually it’s about 60-65%

[CornerTakenQuickly]

Right…. So been doing some maths. Working out probability’s etc. for people who have applied in groups the odds of being successful are actually around 20% mark. As apposed to those who registered indivaully would be around the 45-55% mark, that’s when you take into account people would of applied in groups etc.

It doesn't matter if you apply by yourself or in a group, your odds of being successful will be the same. They will take the all the transaction numbers and rank them randomly. If the transaction number is high up in the results of the ballot, everyone who registered in that transaction will get a ticket (whether that be 1 person or 4 people).

The only thing to consider if you're in a group is whether you want a very high chance of at least one/two of you getting a ticket (if so then apply individually), or a lower chance (but still high) of all of you getting a ticket.

To demonstrate what I'm talking about above, assuming 4 people want to go together and that the odds of being successful are 70%

If they register together:
 70% chance of all being successful
30% chance of all being unsuccessful

If they register individually:

24% chance of all being successful
0.81% chance of all being unsuccessful

[AR48]

Just reading through the thread. The difference in what people think the ballot success rate is varies massively. Anywhere between about 50-90%! 

[ScubaSteve]

Just reading through the thread. The difference in what people think the ballot success rate is varies massively. Anywhere between about 50-90%!

I’d say more towards the 50% mark than 90% although I think not all will take a ticket even though they’re in the ballot so hopefully more like 60% success rate

[willss]

I think some will forget or not bother to enter the ballot. 75% feels about right. Annoyingly high if you aren’t successful

[AR48]

Crazy to think the last league cup final was 97% ballot success.

[lukeypool]

Crazy to think the last league cup final was 97% ballot success.

Wow, really. Who did we have that year in the build up? Know we had Stoke in the semis all I can remember

[Schmarn]

And yet it’s somehow impossible to get a ticket for Cardiff without Shrewsbury.

[willss]

Wow, really. Who did we have that year in the build up? Know we had Stoke in the semis all I can remember

Stoke City Home (26/1/16), Stoke City away (5/1/2016), Southampton away (2/12/2015), AFC Bournemouth home (28/10/2015), Carlisle United home (23/9/2015)

Also worth noting we got less tickets allocated last time

[CornerTakenQuickly]

And yet it’s somehow impossible to get a ticket for Cardiff without Shrewsbury.

Once the seats reserved for contractual obligations are released, it will go to all members/ST holders (won't be that many left though).

[TeddyTime33]

Just reading through the thread. The difference in what people think the ballot success rate is varies massively. Anywhere between about 50-90%!

even 50% is twice as good as Kyivs 27%

[TeddyTime33]

I think some will forget or not bother to enter the ballot. 75% feels about right. Annoyingly high if you aren’t successful

Anfield still hadn't been expanded yet so the number of possible people with credits would've been significantly lower, downside of the Annie Road expansion upcoming too is that ballot odds will only decrease further

[stonecold_jpm]

Once the seats reserved for contractual obligations are released, it will go to all members/ST holders (won't be that many left though).

It best not do as I have Shrewsbury and I’ve been looking all week for any to appear and I haven’t seen any.

[30fiver]

It doesn't matter if you apply by yourself or in a group, your odds of being successful will be the same. They will take the all the transaction numbers and rank them randomly. If the transaction number is high up in the results of the ballot, everyone who registered in that transaction will get a ticket (whether that be 1 person or 4 people).

The only thing to consider if you're in a group is whether you want a very high chance of at least one/two of you getting a ticket (if so then apply individually), or a lower chance (but still high) of all of you getting a ticket.

To demonstrate what I'm talking about above, assuming 4 people want to go together and that the odds of being successful are 70%

If they register together:
 70% chance of all being successful
30% chance of all being unsuccessful

If they register individually:

24% chance of all being successful
0.81% chance of all being unsuccessful

This is correct - its transaction based

The way you enter should depend on your personal situation

I'd enter everyone as individuals, unless you are someone who wouldnt buy a final ticket if only you got one and your friends and family didnt - basically if you're not willing to go on your own go as a group - if you would go on your own, enter individually

[SingFongFC]

Crazy to think the last league cup final was 97% ballot success.

That was with only needing 2 of the 3 homes as well if I remember correctly

[CornerTakenQuickly]

It best not do as I have Shrewsbury and I’ve been looking all week for any to appear and I haven’t seen any.

You'll get to buy one before it goes to all members/ST holders.

[Max100]

It doesn't matter if you apply by yourself or in a group, your odds of being successful will be the same. They will take the all the transaction numbers and rank them randomly. If the transaction number is high up in the results of the ballot, everyone who registered in that transaction will get a ticket (whether that be 1 person or 4 people).

The only thing to consider if you're in a group is whether you want a very high chance of at least one/two of you getting a ticket (if so then apply individually), or a lower chance (but still high) of all of you getting a ticket.

To demonstrate what I'm talking about above, assuming 4 people want to go together and that the odds of being successful are 70%

If they register together:
 70% chance of all being successful
30% chance of all being unsuccessful

If they register individually:

24% chance of all being successful
0.81% chance of all being unsuccessful

This is not entirely correct as we don't know how many joint registrations will apply.

For example, lets says there are 100 seats going in the ballots, If 100 entries in the ballot are all groups of 4, then in theory what's needed is 400 seats, but as there's only 100 seats, only 25 entries will get picked in the ballot - which is a 25% chance of winning. However, if all the entries are just singles, then in theory everyone will get a seat, which gives everyone a 100% chance. Throw in joint registrations with 2 or 3 people, it complicates it all further.

So until we know how the entries are ie how many single registrations, or registrations with 2, 3 or 4 people together, and how many tickets there might be left for the ballot after those with £ games, the PRHs, the players and the corporate take their allocation, we can't really make any sort of educated guess about what the chances of winning are.

[Barrowred]

This is not entirely correct as we don't know how many joint registrations will apply.

For example, lets says there are 100 seats going in the ballots, If 100 entries in the ballot are all groups of 4, then in theory what's needed is 400 seats, but as there's only 100 seats, only 25 entries will get picked in the ballot - which is a 25% chance of winning. However, if all the entries are just singles, then in theory everyone will get a seat, which gives everyone a 100% chance. Throw in joint registrations with 2 or 3 people, it complicates it all further.

So until we know how the entries are ie how many single registrations, or registrations with 2, 3 or 4 people together, and how many tickets there might be left for the ballot after those with £ games, the PRHs, the players and the corporate take their allocation, we can't really make any sort of educated guess about what the chances of winning are.

All of the above was going round in my head as well. You have explained it a lot better than I could though.

[Hij]

This is correct - its transaction based

The way you enter should depend on your personal situation

I'd enter everyone as individuals, unless you are someone who wouldnt buy a final ticket if only you got one and your friends and family didnt - basically if you're not willing to go on your own go as a group - if you would go on your own, enter individually

Basically this.

If you and your Dad (for example) sit together but your Dad has no intention of going the final - you'd enter two individual applications as it gives you two chances to be in the top of the ballot list.

If you only want to go with your Dad (for example) you'd submit as a group.

For example, lets says there are 100 seats going in the ballots, If 100 entries in the ballot are all groups of 4, then in theory what's needed is 400 seats, but as there's only 100 seats, only 25 entries will get picked in the ballot - which is a 25% chance of winning. However, if all the entries are just singles, then in theory everyone will get a seat, which gives everyone a 100% chance. Throw in joint registrations with 2 or 3 people, it complicates it all further.

This implies that the ballot would be 4 times over subscribed though (400 people for 100 tickets), and I'm not sure that is what will happen.

Someone has already said, it will organise all the applications into a big list and then just award the number of available tickets to those at the top. Any remainder go to the waiting list.

In terms of the make up of the numbers, I think there will be a big spread of different numbers applying so it won't make too much odds.

[TwitterJayy]

Going off the previous European finals we’ve been in.
63% off tickets go to general fans
So around 20,789 tickets left.
Let’s say around 5,900 have 3 credits, so we will have around 14,889 tickets left for a ballot.
Around 30k was in the ballot for Madrid 2019.
So if its similar numbers it’s looking like a 50% chance.

Got 3 cards in the ballot, praying for 2/3 but can’t see myself even getting one.

[Hij]

And this is why it's best to enter as a group rather than individually.

It's a bit like game theory. Ours have all entered individually so at at least - barring a statistical improbability - 1/2 will be going the final with me. The alternative could have been a 50% chance (twice: am entry of 4 and an entry of 2) that I went on my own.

[Craig S]

This is not entirely correct as we don't know how many joint registrations will apply.

For example, lets says there are 100 seats going in the ballots, If 100 entries in the ballot are all groups of 4, then in theory what's needed is 400 seats, but as there's only 100 seats, only 25 entries will get picked in the ballot - which is a 25% chance of winning. However, if all the entries are just singles, then in theory everyone will get a seat, which gives everyone a 100% chance. Throw in joint registrations with 2 or 3 people, it complicates it all further.

So until we know how the entries are ie how many single registrations, or registrations with 2, 3 or 4 people together, and how many tickets there might be left for the ballot after those with £ games, the PRHs, the players and the corporate take their allocation, we can't really make any sort of educated guess about what the chances of winning are.

If all entries in that ballot were singles, there would be 400 entries for 100 tickets. It is still 25% chance. It is the same

[TwitterJayy]

And this is why it's best to enter as a group rather than individually.

It’s down to opinion. All I know is for Kyiv I entered as a group and got nothing, Madrid entered individually and got one out of three. Everyone has the same chance regardless.
I think if you go individually, you’ll have a better chance of something than nothing.
Where as the group you have less chance but a bigger reward in getting 2+ (whatever your group size).

[Schmarn]

The one scenario where it’s definitely better to apply individually is where you control a number of memberships (usually family) and you’re going regardless of which member actually gets the ticket. Hence the questions from many about whether there will be names on tickets and whether they will be checked.

The next fuss will be from people who forgot to register.

[TeddyTime33]

The one scenario where it’s definitely better to apply individually is where you control a number of memberships (usually family) and you’re going regardless of which member actually gets the ticket. Hence the questions from many about whether there will be names on tickets and whether they will be checked.

The next fuss will be from people who forgot to register.

in fairness if you forget to register I'm sure you were that arsed anyway, there's been plenty of time

[aleclfcr]

Me and 2 other mates have applied as a group in the ballot, has this decreased our chances? Lots of conflicting posts 

[TeddyTime33]

Me and 2 other mates have applied as a group in the ballot, has this decreased our chances? Lots of conflicting posts 

no it hasn't you'll all be successful or all be placed on the waiting list

[Kls89]

Will the club announce the odds once the registration has closed like they did for the premier league ballots?

[TeddyTime33]

Will the club announce the odds once the registration has closed like they did for the premier league ballots?

probably but can't be sure