Topic: It's just a battle for the order of the first 4 spots now between 5 teams...

[Samie]

Still think United have a 20% chance of catching us, considering their fixtures. If they drop points in any of their 4 coming games I canŽt see them catch us, they really need to get 12points and if that happens they are probably favorites to get 4th since they got nothing to "lose" and easy fixtures and weŽll have more nervous games like today where we can easily drop points. If I remember correctly in 11/12 United were 8points infront of City when there were like 5-6 games left of the season ? A couple of bad results and everything can happen.

I honestly still see United as a bigger threat to top4 then Spurs.

They have man city in the next 4 league games. They'll be humbled in that as well as us. West Brom and Fat Sam's team who've hit form.

Oh and David Moyes in charge.

[campioni]

Might be stating the obvious here but our next two matches will potentially define our season.

Southampton away and Manchester United away.

Southampton lost yesterday at West Ham but that's never an easy place to go. They're a different animal at St Mary's from what I've seen. Just the three defeats there this season - the first was 2-3 to Aston Villa in one of those mad games where one team (Southampton) absolutely battered their opponents but the other team (Villa) took literally every chance they had. Saints got beat 2-3 by Tottenham at home, but I just looked at the Saints team that day and it was down to its bare bones; Gazzaniga was in goal, a big downgrade on Boruc and the left side of their defence, rather than the very impressive duo of Lovren and Shaw was the Championship-standard Hooiveld and Fox. So it's hard to judge them on that. Chelsea won 0-3 there, the only team to win there with real conviction. Either side of that Man City and Arsenal were very fortunate to escape with a point from St Mary's. Oh, and they are our bogey team; we were well beaten there last season, 3-1, and obviously they are the only team to come away from Anfield this season with a victory. I know if you look at the table it might appear that they have nowt to play for and so in theory it shouldn't be as tough but they will likely have their first choice XI back for it and their players and manager will be desperate to complete the double over one of the best teams in the country.

Obviously Man Utd have become a bit of a laughing stock this season especially with some of their results at Old Trafford but they also appear to injury-free at the moment and you can bet your bottom dollar that they raise their game for our visit. Plus they'll see it as a must-win - lose and they know that 4th is absolutely beyond them. So it will be tough, perhaps not to its usual extent but certainly far from the easy game that some may be hoping for.

If we get no points from those two games then the title will be beyond us and one or two teams may be back in the scrap for 4th. One point and the title is probably a foregone conclusion still. Two draws wouldn't be bad by any means, and would certainly give me confidence with regards to our top four ambitions but to maintain any hope of the title we need to win at least one. Win and a draw would be a fantastic return. Win both and I'm in dreamland.

Shame the Sunderland game in between is postponed, but yeah, I'm going to refrain from discussing whether our target should be 1st, 3rd or 4th until after these next two humongous fixtures.

On the other hand, Southampton have won only one of their last seven league games at St Marys, conceding 14 goals. They'll be looking forward to Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling arriving in town like a turkey looks forward to Christmas.

[andy07]

For the first time in eons I am confident that we will turn then over at OT, put the nail in their coffin.

[kevin87]

We should aim for 3rd in case one of them win CL

Fuck 3rd. We're aiming for #1. Chelsea and man city will be shitting their dacks with the thought of coming to anfield. Especially the first half if each game, we have had some sensational starts recently. Both will need to get points out of the game so should enable an open contest.


I strongly believe if we win those 2, we'll win the whole thing.

[redmark]

I honestly still see United as a bigger threat to top4 then Spurs.

Only because they're called United. If that were Newcastle, or Everton, or Spurs, or Villa, with that number of points and that fixture list, you'd have written them off by now. United have been done for weeks.

[andy07]

Might be stating the obvious here but our next two matches will potentially define our season.

Southampton away and Manchester United away.

Southampton lost yesterday at West Ham but that's never an easy place to go. They're a different animal at St Mary's from what I've seen. Just the three defeats there this season - the first was 2-3 to Aston Villa in one of those mad games where one team (Southampton) absolutely battered their opponents but the other team (Villa) took literally every chance they had. Saints got beat 2-3 by Tottenham at home, but I just looked at the Saints team that day and it was down to its bare bones; Gazzaniga was in goal, a big downgrade on Boruc and the left side of their defence, rather than the very impressive duo of Lovren and Shaw was the Championship-standard Hooiveld and Fox. So it's hard to judge them on that. Chelsea won 0-3 there, the only team to win there with real conviction. Either side of that Man City and Arsenal were very fortunate to escape with a point from St Mary's. Oh, and they are our bogey team; we were well beaten there last season, 3-1, and obviously they are the only team to come away from Anfield this season with a victory. I know if you look at the table it might appear that they have nowt to play for and so in theory it shouldn't be as tough but they will likely have their first choice XI back for it and their players and manager will be desperate to complete the double over one of the best teams in the country.

Obviously Man Utd have become a bit of a laughing stock this season especially with some of their results at Old Trafford but they also appear to injury-free at the moment and you can bet your bottom dollar that they raise their game for our visit. Plus they'll see it as a must-win - lose and they know that 4th is absolutely beyond them. So it will be tough, perhaps not to its usual extent but certainly far from the easy game that some may be hoping for.

If we get no points from those two games then the title will be beyond us and one or two teams may be back in the scrap for 4th. One point and the title is probably a foregone conclusion still. Two draws wouldn't be bad by any means, and would certainly give me confidence with regards to our top four ambitions but to maintain any hope of the title we need to win at least one. Win and a draw would be a fantastic return. Win both and I'm in dreamland.

Shame the Sunderland game in between is postponed, but yeah, I'm going to refrain from discussing whether our target should be 1st, 3rd or 4th until after these next two humongous fixtures.

Chill out mate.  We will be up for the Saints like nothing else having been turned over twice on the bounce.   And for the Scum the chance to make them dead and buried in front of their own fans is incentive enough.   That said we need to be on our game and I am sure we will be for both games.  I expect 6 points and serious pressure on those that are still above us. 

[Haemoglobin]

Sakho, Lucas.

[Sgt. Pepper]

It a question that amazingly is still hard to answer. We'll know more after a tough March (3 away games and Spurs at home).
If we can get maximum points then we'll be fighting for the title until the end. If we'll get 6-8 points then probably "just" 4th.

[Em5y]

We've achieved nothing yet - though we are in a nice position.  Of our remaining fixtures - Southampton away and Chelsea home are the ones giving me the most concern.

Easy to forget that there is still just under a third of the season to go, a little to early to be writing off anybody to be honest. I just hope that we can keep playing with the freedom we have done so far - exciting times.

[soxfan]

We can afford to lose 4 games and still get 76 easier than the rest.

We need 20 points to get 76. - 6 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses - 54% Win Ratio - 1.82 points per game

Tottenham need 26 points to get 76. - 8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses - 72% Win Ratio - 2.36 points per game.

Man U and Everton need 31 points to get 76. 10 wins, 1 draw, no losses - 90% Win Ratio  - 2.81 points per game.

There's no way United catch us. No way. They are dead and buried. Spurs have the only realistic shot.

[Hij]

There's no way United catch us. No way. They are dead and buried. Spurs have the only realistic shot.

Yep. It took me a while to truly believe we are near to breaking our duck as well, and getting back into the Champions League so I'm not surprised it's taking others longer.

EVERY SINGLE game we can say "we could lose there" then bet your bottom dollar they are saying exactly the same thing about us.

[elpistolero7]

I'm not tense, not one bit. You know why? 7 months back we all hoped for a real shot at 4th.

Look where we are now. If we get 4th, I'll be chuffed, anything else is just a bonus. If we win the league, I'll be the first man to convert to Rodgersism. I'll break Gary Neville's nose with my cock if he asked me to.

[tellusajoke]

we need 3rd or above!
Can you imagine, if we finished 4th...but United only went and won the fuckin CL (not saying there gonna, but as long as they're still in it a getting the easy draws then there's a chance the fuckers could).
I couldn't bear it. I'd rather us finish 5th than that happening.

[elpistolero7]

we need 3rd or above!
Can you imagine, if we finished 4th...but United only went and won the fuckin CL (not saying there gonna, but as long as they're still in it a getting the easy draws then there's a chance the fuckers could).
I couldn't bear it. I'd rather us finish 5th than that happening.

I'd eat my cock if Moyes won the CL. You need to remember the group ethos Chelsea played with when they fluked it+they had Drogba. This lot have a ghost of RVP and fattyboy Rooney. Mata's cup tied...I'd be surprised if they get past Olympiakos. They're shit, don't you get it. They've been genuinely fortunate to get to 45 points at this stage, that's how shit they are.

[Wiss_LFC]

I am being quietly optimistic about what we can do this season, i think we will get top 4 but not sure about a title challenge

The end of March will tell us what were challenging for as it's our hardest month left in the season

[Bonaqua]

Might be stating the obvious here but our next two matches will potentially define our season.

Southampton away and Manchester United away.

Southampton lost yesterday at West Ham but that's never an easy place to go. They're a different animal at St Mary's from what I've seen. Just the three defeats there this season - the first was 2-3 to Aston Villa in one of those mad games where one team (Southampton) absolutely battered their opponents but the other team (Villa) took literally every chance they had. Saints got beat 2-3 by Tottenham at home, but I just looked at the Saints team that day and it was down to its bare bones; Gazzaniga was in goal, a big downgrade on Boruc and the left side of their defence, rather than the very impressive duo of Lovren and Shaw was the Championship-standard Hooiveld and Fox. So it's hard to judge them on that. Chelsea won 0-3 there, the only team to win there with real conviction. Either side of that Man City and Arsenal were very fortunate to escape with a point from St Mary's. Oh, and they are our bogey team; we were well beaten there last season, 3-1, and obviously they are the only team to come away from Anfield this season with a victory. I know if you look at the table it might appear that they have nowt to play for and so in theory it shouldn't be as tough but they will likely have their first choice XI back for it and their players and manager will be desperate to complete the double over one of the best teams in the country.

Obviously Man Utd have become a bit of a laughing stock this season especially with some of their results at Old Trafford but they also appear to injury-free at the moment and you can bet your bottom dollar that they raise their game for our visit. Plus they'll see it as a must-win - lose and they know that 4th is absolutely beyond them. So it will be tough, perhaps not to its usual extent but certainly far from the easy game that some may be hoping for.

If we get no points from those two games then the title will be beyond us and one or two teams may be back in the scrap for 4th. One point and the title is probably a foregone conclusion still. Two draws wouldn't be bad by any means, and would certainly give me confidence with regards to our top four ambitions but to maintain any hope of the title we need to win at least one. Win and a draw would be a fantastic return. Win both and I'm in dreamland.

Shame the Sunderland game in between is postponed, but yeah, I'm going to refrain from discussing whether our target should be 1st, 3rd or 4th until after these next two humongous fixtures.

If we only were so lucky. Truth is our next 11 matches will define our season.

[Samie]

we need 3rd or above!
Can you imagine, if we finished 4th...but United only went and won the fuckin CL (not saying there gonna, but as long as they're still in it a getting the easy draws then there's a chance the fuckers could).
I couldn't bear it. I'd rather us finish 5th than that happening.

Moyes team up against Bayern Munich or Barca or Real Madrid or Borussia Dortmund or Atlethico Madrid. Now tell me who they going to beat?. 

Bayern would do horrible truly unspeakable things to them.  The rest would destroy them.

[tellusajoke]

I'd eat my cock if Moyes won the CL. You need to remember the group ethos Chelsea played with when they fluked it+they had Drogba. This lot have a ghost of RVP and fattyboy Rooney. Mata's cup tied...I'd be surprised if they get past Olympiakos. They're shit, don't you get it. They've been genuinely fortunate to get to 45 points at this stage, that's how shit they are.

I know they're shite, but they're so fuckin jammy too. I'd be happy with 4th once they're out of the CL.

[tellusajoke]

Moyes team up against Bayern Munich or Barca or Real Madrid or Borussia Dortmund or Atlethico Madrid. Now tell me who they going to beat?. 

Bayern would do horrible truly unspeakable things to them.  The rest would destroy them.

Yeah, I know, I know. Just don't want our lads thinking 4th's in the bag and gonna guarantee CL football.
We've had some dodgy decisions against us,which they seem to have go their way when it matters.

PLUS I'm sure Everton didn't think we'd win in when we did either!

[Nessy76]

56 pts from 27 games has us averaging just over 2 points per game.
If we continue to play to the same level until the end of the season, we should expect to end up on about 79 points.
That's 23 points from 11 games.

(If we were to win all 11 games, not only would we be setting a new record, but we could look to finish on 89 points.)

If Spurs play to their average so far, they'll finish on 70 pts.
Everton would finish on 66.
Manchester United can expect to end the season with 63 points.

For the teams above us:
Man City 83 pts
Arsenal 83 pts
Chelsea 84 pts.

While it's possible that at least one of them could run out of steam, the chances of all three dropping form with the finish line in sight are tiny.

My guess would be then, that the title winners will finish on 83-86 pts.

While that is still mathematically in our grasp, we'd need a massive surge from somewhere to take us far over the 80 point line, and we'd have to be very nearly perfect to get to 86, dropping only 3 points in our next 11 games.

We're already on a 8 match unbeaten streak, and have won three on the bounce.

That would mean losing only a single game in 19 - half the season, or dropping just 7 points from 57.

That would give us an average 2.6 points per game, that sort of form over a season would deliver 100 points, an unheard of total in a 20 team English top flight.

I think it's safe to say we're not quite that good just yet.

Third is quite possibly there for the taking. I'd even give us an outside shot at 2nd. To be first will require a lot of other factors to go in our favour.

[PhaseOfPlay]

56 pts from 27 games has us averaging just over 2 points per game.
If we continue to play to the same level until the end of the season, we should expect to end up on about 79 points.
That's 23 points from 11 games.

(If we were to win all 11 games, not only would we be setting a new record, but we could look to finish on 89 points.)

If Spurs play to their average so far, they'll finish on 70 pts.
Everton would finish on 66.
Manchester United can expect to end the season with 63 points.

For the teams above us:
Man City 83 pts
Arsenal 83 pts
Chelsea 84 pts.

While it's possible that at least one of them could run out of steam, the chances of all three dropping form with the finish line in sight are tiny.

My guess would be then, that the title winners will finish on 83-86 pts.

While that is still mathematically in our grasp, we'd need a massive surge from somewhere to take us far over the 80 point line, and we'd have to be very nearly perfect to get to 86, dropping only 3 points in our next 11 games.

We're already on a 8 match unbeaten streak, and have won three on the bounce.

That would mean losing only a single game in 19 - half the season, or dropping just 7 points from 57.

That would give us an average 2.6 points per game, that sort of form over a season would deliver 100 points, an unheard of total in a 20 team English top flight.

I think it's safe to say we're not quite that good just yet.

Third is quite possibly there for the taking. I'd even give us an outside shot at 2nd. To be first will require a lot of other factors to go in our favour.

If we play to our 2+ points per game, though, don't we then take those 2 points from each of City and Chelsea if we beat them?

[I-was-watching-it-on-Sky]

Yeah, I know, I know. Just don't want our lads thinking 4th's in the bag and gonna guarantee CL football.
We've had some dodgy decisions against us,which they seem to have go their way when it matters.

PLUS I'm sure Everton didn't think we'd win in when we did either!

We see a lot of negative posts in here by people who claim their only motivation is 'caution'...

Honestly now...ask yourself...do you really think the players are going to be uplifted n perform better because fans are on here posting that they're shitting themselves with pretend fear...?

Moyes has about as much chance of winning the CL with THIS United squad as the Elephant Man being a body double for George Cluny.

[Kite]

If we had a defence as good as the rest of the top 4 we'd be top right now.  4th place or 3rd at a push.

[PhaseOfPlay]

If we had a defence as good as the rest of the top 4 we'd be top right now.  4th place or 3rd at a push.

Or if we'd just turned the Villa and West Brom games into wins and kept everything else the same.

[Pricey]

Dare to dream. We sit 4 points off top spot with the two teams above us on points to come to Anfield, a place where we're destroying teams left, right and centre. It's absolutely fantastic that we're 6 points clear in 4th but when players retire they won't be telling their kids about the amazing season in 2013/2014 when we smashed Everton 4-0, and thumped Arsenal 5-1 and finished 4th. "4th granddad, why is that good?".

Look up, start believing. We find ourselves in an absolutely golden position. 11 games to go, no Europe midweek games, two of the best strikers in Europe, all the hardest games at home, no major injuries (actually players coming back) and the teams around us need to play each other. 11 games and we win the big one. One thing i can tell you with absolute certainty, is that Steven Gerrard thinks we can win it. He won't say it on tv, but deep down he'll be aiming for that. His celebration against Fulham tells you everything, That's not the celebration of a man playing for 4th place. He knows it's on. 3-0 down at half time in the Champions League final, Gerrard stepped up. 3-2 down in the FA cup final, Gerrard stepped up. 2-2 last minute against Fulham, Gerrard is waving his shirt above his head as we win 3-2, "and now you're gonna believe us". We all said "fuck sake" when John Terry scored in the last minute against Everton, why, because we believe.

We've waited 24 years to win it, and we find ourselves with the best opportunity in a generation to win the league. Perhaps you're an "I'll believe it when i see it" kind of person but i'm a dreamer, i always have been. I'm a misery and bad defending pisses me off but when all is calm and the big picture is there i'll be optimistic, and honestly, i genuinely believe this title is there for the taking. On a really optimistic day i'd say it's ours to lose. We may not find ourselves top right now but if we cut out the errors and maintain our attacking play we might just do it.

[Spraynard Kruger]

For the players it's simple. You know what your goals were at the start of the season, and you're on pace to do that, but you don't "aim for fourth" or third or whatever. You've got 11 games left on the schedule and as each one comes you're thinking about nothing else but taking 3 points from it. As Kenny said all the time, we'll play the games and we'll add up the points at the end and see where we are.

4th isn't "in the bag" yet, but we aren't anything less than very heavy favorites. We're six ahead of Spurs now and that's BEFORE their woeful March run of games. As for Man United, we could lose to Southampton next week and then at OT the following week and Man United would still be five points behind us I think if anybody has an outside shot it would be Everton, but with the look of their last four games - United at home, Southampton away, City at home, Hull away, if we've got a good distance between us and them by the start of that run than they won't be making it up on us.

[Nessy76]

If we play to our 2+ points per game, though, don't we then take those 2 points from each of City and Chelsea if we beat them?

We could lose both and still average more than 2 a game. And each of them could lose here and still maintain their averages, too.

Beating them would help, of course!

I'd say if we were going to win the league, it would be almost impossible without winning those two games. Both sides also still have to play Arsenal of course. There are many things that can help us, but I'm just looking at the average points all four sides have been clocking up over the season and I can't see the three above us all slowing down to the extent that would let us catch up, unless we really turn it up a notch.

We probably need to beat Southampton first, though.

[kcbworth]

We're six ahead of Spurs now and that's BEFORE their woeful March run of games.

In fact, really they have to get 7 more points than us, because there is no way they will get close to our goal difference

[kcbworth]

There are many things that can help us, but I'm just looking at the average points all four sides have been clocking up over the season and I can't see the three above us all slowing down to the extent that would let us catch up, unless we really turn it up a notch.

If (big if) we somehow manage to win against City, Chelsea, and Manchester Utd, I'm pretty sure that at least one team would drop points at Arsenal, and I think we could be part of a 3 way tie for 1st.

But, requires us to win basically everything (if not, everything)

[tellusajoke]

We see a lot of negative posts in here by people who claim their only motivation is 'caution'...

Honestly now...ask yourself...do you really think the players are going to be uplifted n perform better because fans are on here posting that they're shitting themselves with pretend fear...?

Moyes has about as much chance of winning the CL with THIS United squad as the Elephant Man being a body double for George Cluny.

Very naive.

There's also a lot of positive post saying 4th's in the bag...is it really..cos there's still 33 points to play for.

Having a little "fear" isn't always a bad thing (especially for our defence at the mo). It makes you make better decisions, tells you when something is wrong and not always be brave and have a little self control, which probably means we'd be a bit further up the table, as we'd have at least 2 more points...Kolo certainly wouldn't have tried to play that ball v West Brom and a few Mignolet mistakes for goals would have been wiped out too.
Fear can also make you play better and give you more desire to win. That's one of the reasons why we switch on and prepare for the next game immediately after the last game.

[Nessy76]

One thing that could work in our favour is City's fixture pile-up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/manchester-city/fixtures

They have a massive squad, of course, and should be better placed than most to cope, but they've got a horrible set of games to play, even if they don't turn it round against Barca.

There's the League Cup final, the FA Cup match against Wigan (and we all remember what happened there...) the 2nd leg at Barca, a trip to Hull, a home game v Fulham, the Manchester derby at Old Trafford and then away to Arsenal.

At the end of that month, they'll also need to find time before the end of the season to play both Sunderland and Aston Villa.

We can certainly hope they'll drop a few points over that period.

[elpistolero7]

9 wins , 1 draw 1 loss and the title's ours folks. That'll be 84 points. We'll win in on GD over City. Ferguson will croak.

[PhaseOfPlay]

One thing that could work in our favour is City's fixture pile-up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/manchester-city/fixtures

They have a massive squad, of course, and should be better placed than most to cope, but they've got a horrible set of games to play, even if they don't turn it round against Barca.

There's the League Cup final, the FA Cup match against Wigan (and we all remember what happened there...) the 2nd leg at Barca, a trip to Hull, a home game v Fulham, the Manchester derby at Old Trafford and then away to Arsenal.

At the end of that month, they'll also need to find time before the end of the season to play both Sunderland and Aston Villa.

We can certainly hope they'll drop a few points over that period.

I'm sticking to my Derby 1972 comparison

If we win it, it'll be tight (GD or a point or two) and we'll win it because we did what we had to do while other clubs dropped the ball in key games. Beating City and Chelsea will go some way to making that happen

[Dingle Red]

Love it Pricey lad.

[SquirrelandGman]

I hope brendan seriously looks at set pieces and positioning this week before the southampton game cause we wont win the league leaking 2-3 goals every game.

*ends football manager mode*

[CraigDS]

I hope brendan seriously looks at set pieces and positioning this week before the southampton game cause we wont win the league leaking 2-3 goals every game.

*ends football manager mode*

We will if we score 4.

[SquirrelandGman]

We will if we score 4.

judging by suarez's current form..i highly doubt we'll manage 4 goals against the likes of city and chelsea.

But i like your optimism!

[Number 7]

Still think United have a 20% chance of catching us, considering their fixtures. If they drop points in any of their 4 coming games I canŽt see them catch us, they really need to get 12points and if that happens they are probably favorites to get 4th since they got nothing to "lose" and easy fixtures and weŽll have more nervous games like today where we can easily drop points. If I remember correctly in 11/12 United were 8points infront of City when there were like 5-6 games left of the season ? A couple of bad results and everything can happen.

I honestly still see United as a bigger threat to top4 then Spurs.

The fear of United catching us is emanating from United fans themselves, some who still believe they can pip us to 4th.

United have pulled back big margins before, but that was when they had a manager who could motivate them to win games consistently, even in the last minute. That was a manager who simply wouldn't take losing and who could inspire them to just win football games. He was also manager last season when they won the league at a canter. They have essentially the same squad this year under a new manager and have been far less superior. There is a reason they are 11 points behind us, and there is a reason why we're at 2 points per game. It hasn't just happened overnight. I know it's a cliche to say 'they're United....so anything is possible'. But something would have to drastically change not only for us, but them too.

Points on the board dear friends. Points on the board.

[No Appreciation of Liverpool Opposition]

undefeated year 2014. That's what i want.

[Number 7]

As I said, I am optimistic. I do believe we will get at least 4th, and I do believe we will beat both Southampton and United away. Im just saying we could face quite a different scenario after the next two rounds. And if the gap down to 5th drops to 1-5 points, the psychological aspect is quite different.

And if we do lose both games, the pressure against city, chelsea and spurs would be massive.

I'm at that stage now where I think we can outscore anybody. Because apart from a few blips here and there that is essentially what has been happening all season.

I think we'll beat Southampton. We've just done the job against all our bogey teams this season. Then it will be a 2 week break for us, in which Sakho and Lucas will get ready and raring to go.