Topic: It's just a battle for the order of the first 4 spots now between 5 teams...

[Il Capitano]

No disrespect PoP. You dont get 4th until you get 4th. 5 points from 5th and 9 points from 6th means fuckall if we draw/lose a weekend and they win theirs.

Right, that would mean the gap would be 8 points instead of 11. Then what?

[Always_A_Red]

I'll never rule out United, nobody should. It's been fantastic laughing at them and their manager since August, but this season isn't over. I'll celebrate for real when they're mathematically out of the race for fourth as well as out of the Champions League.

My UTD supporting mate has already paid me the £50 he bet me that UTD would finish in the top 4 that we had at xmas. They don't believe they can do it, why should we?

[ChaChaMooMoo]

They are 11 points behind us. They need to win 4 games (probably in a row) that that we lose to get ahead of us.

Is that likely to happen?

When you put it like that it seems insignificant. I understand that I, like some of us, am playing it safe until it mathematically isnt possible. But then it does always seem so. The same thing was said in 2008/9 when we were leading the chase until the 33rd game. And Chelsea, who were 8 points behind us then, finished 3 points behind us in 3rd. Different situation yes. But playing it safe is one thing and ignoring it is entirely another right?

[eLToRo]

They are 11 points behind us. They need to win 4 games (probably in a row) that that we lose to get ahead of us.

Is that likely to happen?

Exactly. United need to win every game and we need to 4 for that to happen.

It simply won't because Moyes will not win 11/11 games and We will not lose 4 games.

I can see us dropping points in 4 or 5 games at most and even at that they would have to be loses  against Spurs or United and United would have to go on title winning form still.

[RK7]

They are 11 points behind us. They need to win 4 games (probably in a row) that that we lose to get ahead of us.

Is that likely to happen?

If West Ham can win 4 in row then it it is quite possible United can also, I agree they look very poor under Moyes but stranger things have happened in football.

[Bobinhood]

Well anyway of course its not done with 11/12 games left. But, this weekend we dropped 3 points right on the heads of Everton and Spurs and kept pace with everyone else. In terms of 4th its the best possible result we could have had.

I was just pissed in the first place that we were +32 better and had beaten them 5-0 away yet were only 3 points clear of roosters. Very annoyed by that. 6 points is better. someday soon it will be 9 then 12 and that will be better still. Meantime, this is good for today, better our position than theirs 7 days a week. 

[jamieredders]

Well anyway of course its not done with 11/12 games left. But, this weekend we dropped 3 points right on the heads of Everton and Spurs and kept pace with everyone else. In terms of 4th its the best possible result we could have had.

I was just pissed in the first place that we were +32 better and had beaten them 5-0 away yet were only 3 points clear of roosters. Very annoyed by that. 6 points is better. someday soon it will be 9 then 12 and that will be better still. Meantime, this is good for today, better our position than theirs 7 days a week.

Spot on

[PhaseOfPlay]

When you put it like that it seems insignificant. I understand that I, like some of us, am playing it safe until it mathematically isnt possible. But then it does always seem so. The same thing was said in 2008/9 when we were leading the chase until the 33rd game. And Chelsea, who were 8 points behind us then, finished 3 points behind us in 3rd. Different situation yes. But playing it safe is one thing and ignoring it is entirely another right?

Who's ignoring it? The situation is what it is. They don't have Ferguson anymore, they have a manager in over his head for a club that size who is, by the week, showing the mental strain of the pressure he's under, and they play dire, turgid football that has seen them gain 1.66 points per game, which would give them 63 points over the course of the season. To get top four, they may need to get 30 points out of 33 available - that's 2.72 points per game. 2.72 points per game gets you 103 points per season. Even a generous 2.36 points per game gets you 89 points for the season. So having been miserably average over the course of the previous 27 games, they would now have to turn on title-winning form and win 9 of their last 11 games at least just to break the 71 point standard for top 4. That means they can only afford 2 more losses. Do you see them seriously winning 9 games and losing a maximum of only 2 games between now and the end of the season?

[cox3100]

If West Ham can win 4 in row then it it is quite possible United can also, I agree they look very poor under Moyes but stranger things have happened in football.

but that would be like something from the x-files and Moyes aint no Mulder or Scully

[PhaseOfPlay]

If West Ham can win 4 in row then it it is quite possible United can also, I agree they look very poor under Moyes but stranger things have happened in football.

Yes, but they need us to lose 4 in a row at the same time.

[Syntexity]

Its highly unlikely united will catch us, that goes for Everton swell. You can never say never of course, and I won't take anything for granted when it comes to Liverpool. But we have the best attack in the league right now. We are gonna win games, our attack is too good not to. We will be in a lot of games where we will be able to counter-attack which will suit us perfectly.

Lucas should return soon and help fix some of the defensive problems we are having. Sakho should be back soon hopefully. I keep thinking about that defense, if we get a solid back four, the kind that gets 15+ clean sheets a season, with the attack we have. That would be one hell of a combo.

[mulfella]

Rule of thumb is you don't overhaul a lead greater than a point a game.

We are now 11.5 point ahead of Utd with 11 to play.

[Hij]

If West Ham can win 4 in row then it it is quite possible United can also, I agree they look very poor under Moyes but stranger things have happened in football.

Their next 4... West Brom Away, Liverpool Home, West Ham Away, Man City Home

I'm not sure they will win all four of those. And they would probably need to do that, and have us drop in 2 games to have the gap surmountable with 7 games to go.

With the Sunderland game having moved, our next four is difficult to be fair. Southampton Away, Man U Away, Cardiff Away, Tottenham Home.

Say we draw all four of those games. The most Man U and Tottenham could get out of their runs of four games is 10 because we stopped them winning one of their games. 10 minus our 4 points means at best a 6 point gain on us (by winning all their others). And would need to beat Man City for Man U and Chelsea/Arsenal for Spurs. To be level with Spurs and 5 ahead of Man U with 7 games to go.

Alternatively, we win two of the games, and lose the ones to Spurs/Man U - they can gain 12 points on us, but with our 6 the most they can gain is 6, same as above - which is level with Spurs and 5 ahead of Man U again.

Essentially, a win against Spurs and a draw vs Man United probably seals it for us, barring utter collapse.

Because if you beat Spurs, the most they can get out of those 4 games is 9, minus the 3 points we took against them, is 6- assuming we lose all THREE of the others.

I think it would be realistic to say Cardiff and Tottenham are wins, Man U is a draw, Southampton a loss say. That gives us 7, the most Man U can gain on us is 3 points in that scenario (winning the rest of their games) and the most Spurs can gain is 2.

[decky]

4 points off the top, so there's only one way to look and that is up. Spurs aren't gonna catch us now, with our goal difference it's basically an extra point. Cut out the silly mistakes at the back and we can win this. The return of Sakho and Lucas might just help us with that. Rodgers has the players in the right place mentally, we're building momentum and I think our players believe they can do this. I believe they can and so should every other Liverpool fan.

[RK7]

Yes, but they need us to lose 4 in a row at the same time.

I know, it is very unlikely, Just pointing out that it is possible. You have been spot on with most things United this season, I'm just playing devils advocate.

Would you rule Spurs out at this stage?

[helmboy_nige]

Really?

Why wouldn't you rule them out? They've had 27 games to show that Moyes knew what he was doing. They haven't show top four form for the majority of those 27 games. Are they suddenly going to go on league winning form for the last 11?

I agree with you, but you need to understand human nature. 20 years we've been watching Man U dominate domestically. We've watched them put those remarkable late runs in that belie belief.  And more importantly, we watched in 2008/09 when we scored the most, lost the least and put in a run of 10 wins in 11 at the end of the season. Yet still Man Utd showed the mark of champions and ground out the title when it mattered most.

You are right. They are not the same team under a different manager. Their aura has gone. But after 20 years of watching them, it's a little hard to get rid of that fear factor.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Rodgers has the players in the right place mentally, we're building momentum and I think our players believe they can do this. I believe they can and so should every other Liverpool fan.

[jamieredders]

Who the fook is this United you lot are talking about?

I've studied the table and I cannot see one team with United in its name that is anywhere fookin near us?!

 

[I-was-watching-it-on-Sky]

I'll never rule out United, nobody should. It's been fantastic laughing at them and their manager since August, but this season isn't over. I'll celebrate for real when they're mathematically out of the race for fourth as well as out of the Champions League.

Oh...but you should...and must rule out United.

We're currently on course to get 78pts min., so United would need 79pts.

They're currently on 45pts and the last time I went to school 79pts - 45pts is 34pts.

I don't see how they're going to get 34pts from their next 11 games...I know the FA are on their side...but I don't think that corrupt bag of old farts can earn them an extra beauty point.

[DanA]

West Ham is going to be tougher than I'd thought.

Westham with Andy Carroll are a good team. Without him they are average.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I agree with you, but you need to understand human nature. 20 years we've been watching Man U dominate domestically. We've watched them put those remarkable late runs in that belie belief.  And more importantly, we watched in 2008/09 when we scored the most, lost the least and put in a run of 10 wins in 11 at the end of the season. Yet still Man Utd showed the mark of champions and ground out the title when it mattered most.

You are right. They are not the same team under a different manager. Their aura has gone. But after 20 years of watching them, it's a little hard to get rid of that fear factor.

I watched them for the same 20 years. But I knew why they were winning. And he's not the manager any more

[Hij]

I agree with you, but you need to understand human nature. 20 years we've been watching Man U dominate domestically. We've watched them put those remarkable late runs in that belie belief.  And more importantly, we watched in 2008/09 when we scored the most, lost the least and put in a run of 10 wins in 11 at the end of the season. Yet still Man Utd showed the mark of champions and ground out the title when it mattered most.

While we aren't in first place, we are that team now.

At 2-2 and 3-3 the Mancs, Everton and Tottenham are going "if they drop here, then drop next week as well, we can get back into this". Then up pops Jordan Henderson and sorry, try again to cut the gap next week.

[helmboy_nige]

I watched them for the same 20 years. But I knew why they were winning. And he's not the manager any more

I know... and I agree with you. But people aren't machines. They see Man U and they panic.  Personally, I think they'll finish 6th.

Edit: and I also think that we'll be the team that puts the final nail in their slim hopes of top 4 by beating them at OT.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I know, it is very unlikely, Just pointing out that it is possible. You have been spot on with most things United this season, I'm just playing devils advocate.

Would you rule Spurs out at this stage?

Pretty much.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Who's ignoring it? The situation is what it is. They don't have Ferguson anymore, they have a manager in over his head for a club that size who is, by the week, showing the mental strain of the pressure he's under, and they play dire, turgid football that has seen them gain 1.66 points per game, which would give them 63 points over the course of the season. To get top four, they may need to get 30 points out of 33 available - that's 2.72 points per game. 2.72 points per game gets you 103 points per season. Even a generous 2.36 points per game gets you 89 points for the season. So having been miserably average over the course of the previous 27 games, they would now have to turn on title-winning form and win 9 of their last 11 games at least just to break the 71 point standard for top 4. That means they can only afford 2 more losses. Do you see them seriously winning 9 games and losing a maximum of only 2 games between now and the end of the season?

I dunno mate. It does seem a bit frivolous. 2.72 ppg is a monumental and humongous task. But somehow, being bought up with the principle "You dont finish until you finish", I think we might have to agree to disagree on this one.

[Redric1970]

Maybe a few of us are negative but top 4 isn't a given, 5 of our next 6 games are tricky, Southampton away (not easy) man utd away (they will be up for that one) west ham away (they are hard to beat at home, seem to be playing well at the moment) and then you have man city and spurs. We have got ourselves on a great position, but it isn't job done yet.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I dunno mate. It does seem a bit frivolous. 2.72 ppg is a monumental and humongous task. But somehow, being bought up with the principle "You dont finish until you finish", I think we might have to agree to disagree on this one.

Remember I'm talking purely about whether United can catch us or not. Not whether we have already won fourth place with 11 games to go. We haven't. But United are so far off the pace that they need a lot of planets and stars to align and a lot of prayers to be answered and candles to be lit for them to get fourth at our expense.

[bigbear]

Westham with Andy Carroll are a good team. Without him they are average.

Carroll will most probably be available and considering the way Bony bullied is this afternoon he will be licking his lips at piling into our centre backs.

That said, there's a long way to go before West Ham so we can't be worrying about that right now.

[decky]

Psychologically how must Spurs and our title rivals be feeling about us right now? We've just conceded 3 at home and still fucking won. This is the sort of thing united used to do, always finding a way to win

[Juan Loco]

If West Ham can win 4 in row then it it is quite possible United can also, I agree they look very poor under Moyes but stranger things have happened in football.

United need us to lose 4 more games than them over the next 11.

It would be the strangest thing yet.

[SerbianScouser]

Remember I'm talking purely about whether United can catch us or not. Not whether we have already won fourth place with 11 games to go. We haven't. But United are so far off the pace that they need a lot of planets and stars to align and a lot of prayers to be answered and candles to be lit for them to get fourth at our expense.

If Brendan was their coach they`d definitely make it. Imagine what he could do with Mata, Rooney, RVP, Januzaj, Kagawa...

[Red_Rich]

United could still be dark horses for 4th. They only have Us (h), City (h) and Everton (a) out of the top 7 from now on so should go on a bit of a run.

One game at a time. Hopefully, if we can put them to the sword at OT then that end any fantasy they have of making a push.

No fucking chance they are getting ahead of us in the league table.

With our superior GD it's essentially a 12pt lead we have over them.

[bigbear]

While we aren't in first place, we are that team now.

At 2-2 and 3-3 the Mancs, Everton and Tottenham are going "if they drop here, then drop next week as well, we can get back into this". Then up pops Jordan Henderson and sorry, try again to cut the gap next week.

That has been the big plus of the last 2 League games (Fulham and Swansea) where we have got over the line without being great and by scoring relatively late goals.

It's something that we haven't been doing for a long time and what good sides do.

There was a bit of panic about our game today though and had we been away from home it would have cost us. We need to get a bit more solidity in our game to win some of these tough games coming up.

[Red_Rich]

Late wins by the single goal isnt something we've done this season ... up until now.

Signs of a title-challenging side, that.

[Hij]

Worst (realistic worst) case scenario?


Liverpool - 56 points

Southampton Away - Lose
Cardiff Away - Win
Man U Away - Draw
Tottenham Home - Draw

5 points ... 31 games played ... 61 points (same total as entire of last season).


Tottenham - 50 points

Cardiff Home - Win
Chelsea Away - Lose
Arsenal Home - Draw
Southampton Home - Win
Liverpool Home - Draw

8 points ... 32 games played ... 58 points.


Man U - 45 points

West Brom Away - Win
Liverpool Home - Draw
West Ham Away - Win
Man City Home - Draw

8 points ... 31 games played ... 53 points


Everton
West Ham Home - Draw
Cardiff Home - Win
Swansea Home - Win
Fulham Away - Win

10 points ... 31 games played ... 55 points


Arsenal - 59 Points

Stoke Away - Win
Tottenham Away - Draw
Chelsea Away - Draw
Man City Home - Win

10pts ... 31 games played ... 65 points


Worst Case League Table in Four Games

3rd Arsenal - p31 - 69pts
4th Liverpool P31 - 61pts
5th Tottenham P32 - 58pts
6th Everton - P31 - 55pts
7th Man United P31 - 53pts

So 3 points clear of Spurs with a game in hand? Meh. Or we could beat Tottenham, and we go up 2 in that table and them down one. Or we beat Man U and we go up 2 and them down one. Or Man U lose to City, or Arsenal don't go their next 4 games unbeaten in Stoke, Tottenham, Chelsea, City or Everton fuck up at home. Or we beat Southampton, or draw to them.

You could easily just as say Tottenham/Man U could beat us and their totals go up 2 and ours down one - but then I can't see most of the other results I've given them coming off alongside that- it would be incredible.

No-ones suggesting cracking open the champagne for fourth, but we must start to believe we are closing in on it.

Next three away games will decide whether we are trying to consolidate fourth or trying to push beyond where we are and above. We take 7 or 8 points and that's all we need to keep our noses in front.

We keep saying every game matters and all that jazz, but three points against St Mary's is humongous- especially as I think most teams have winnable games that weekend again - so to keep the gap would be very very good for us.

[Mashy-rawr!nooo]

Worst case scenario would surely be us loosing every game no?

[lucas65]

After watching Spurs today, we'll tear them a new one, again. There were gaps everywhere and the defence was again slow and vulnerable. 3 easy points there.

[Hij]

Worst case scenario would surely be us loosing every game no?

I've edited in (realistic worst case).

Obviously I need to be given a wide berth as technically it isn't worse case - perhaps we could lose all our games, but I don't think so surely?

Think of it more as a very, very conservative estimate. That we only take 5 points from our next 4 games- that's less than most people think we should take right? I would say 6 is a total we should be aiming for at least (Tottenham/Cardiff games).

For the record, I think it's more likely than not, that we beat Spurs and Man United than the other way around.

[alonsoisared]

6 points is a great bonus but there is a lot of football to be played. Tough, tough game next week and it could be right back to three points. There's no way United or Everton are catching us but Spurs are still right in it for now.

[Hij]

6 points is a great bonus but there is a lot of football to be played. Tough, tough game next week and it could be right back to three points. There's no way United or Everton are catching us but Spurs are still right in it for now.

Usually we look at teams fighting relegation and want them to do favours, but Tottenham play two teams heavily in the title race just after Cardiff at home, and could just as easily slip away again after gaining any ground.

It's all a bit of a mind fuck really, because if we beat Southampton and Man United, we WANT Tottenham to keep gaining points.