Topic: Jill's gorra boss Worcester Combi! (aka the weather thread)

[jillc]

It looks as though it will be sunny tomorrow until the evening when there could be thunderstorms.

[Slippers]

It looks as though it will be sunny tomorrow until the evening when there could be thunderstorms.

We did have thunder and lightning forecast for tomorrow,but that's now changed to rain,rain and more rain.

[jillc]

We did have thunder and lightning forecast for tomorrow,but that's now changed to rain,rain and more rain.

You live in Wales though, rains there more than here. 😊

[Slippers]

You live in Wales though, rains there more than here. 😊

I think it rains more here than it does anywhere else in the world,thank god we don't have to worry about flooding.

[Statto Red]

It's only 5pm & you realise it's only a couple of hours until sunset, & from tomorrow until March the nights are longer than the days.

[Nobby Reserve]

Snow in Newcastle a few days ago.

That's Newcastle, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mloerfzr1Bc

[Nobby Reserve]

Over here in Merseyside, the temp reached 10c early this morning and has inched up to 12c.

It's likely going to be between 10c and 12c until the early hours of Saturday

The most interminably 'meh' temperature, regardless of the season.

[Terry de Niro]

Over here in Merseyside, the temp reached 10c early this morning and has inched up to 12c.

It's likely going to be between 10c and 12c until the early hours of Saturday

The most interminably 'meh' temperature, regardless of the season.

Heating well and truly on here.

Brrrrrrr

[reddebs]

Heating well and truly on here.

Brrrrrrr

I'm dreading going home tomorrow morning knowing it's going to be chilly and maybe need the heating on. 

We've been living with underfloor heating here all week with an ambient temperature of 22°!  Far too warm for me at night but lovely and cozy in the daytime.

It's going to feel like the middle of winter at home 😳🥶😔

[Statto Red]

You know it's autumn, when forecast for tomorrow is showing dry with sunny intervals, & daytime temperatures 10C to 12C.

[Nobby Reserve]

You know it's autumn, when forecast for tomorrow is showing dry with sunny intervals, & daytime temperatures 10C to 12C.

The key is in the wind direction 

[Statto Red]

The key is in the wind direction 

About 18 mph from north, north west

[reddebs]

About 18 mph from north, north west

45mph here from the north east too 🥶

[Son of Spion]

I've been drenched twice today.

☔
🫤

[jillc]

I've been drenched twice today.

☔
🫤

Snap, a second change of clothes heartily sick of it already.

[Slippers]

It's been hammering down all day.

[Terry de Niro]

Properly taking the piss now.
Just kindly FUCK OFF !!! 

[Nobby Reserve]

Loads of surface water flooding around the LCR; many roads all but impassable

[rob1966]

Amey never clear the gulleys so everywhere by us is flooded.

Also, one of my grids has blocked with silt since she cleaned the garden and now my garage is flooded

[Snail]

Finished work in L30 at 16:30 today, walked through my front door in L5 15 minutes ago. Reckon that’s a new record.

[rob1966]

Finished work in L30 at 16:30 today, walked through my front door in L5 15 minutes ago. Reckon that’s a new record.

Take it that's down to flooding all over the place.

[Millie]

My garden is in a right state.  When will this stop?

[Terry de Niro]

Had to pick up my granddaughter from her school in Barnston, Heswall and bring her to ours in Prenton and it was like driving in a river, there and back.
Horrendous.   

[Nobby Reserve]

A wide area of what was south-west Lancashire got 50-70mm of rain 24 hours.

I had to divert twice on my drive home cos roads were closed by the flooding - and still had to drive through some monster mini-lakes that even covered the pavements on both sides.

[jillc]

A wide area of what was south-west Lancashire got 50-70mm of rain 24 hours.

I had to divert twice on my drive home cos roads were closed by the flooding - and still had to drive through some monster mini-lakes that even covered the pavements on both sides.

It doesn't surprise me same over here, they have had to close down part of the Ellesmere Port/Chester railwork network due to serious flooding.

[AlphaDelta]

It was horrendous in Seaforth, people had to be brought out by boats.

I seen as well later on a HGV went over the side of Thelwall Viaduct and fell 60ft down, apparently there was surface water on the carriageway at the time. The driver was relatively uninjured I'm told, lucky guy.

[Peabee]

My garden is in a right state.  When will this stop?

I'm not sure it will completely. We're starting to see the increasing results of climate change.

[Nobby Reserve]

Bit of a possible advanced warning.

Forecast models showing a chance of ex-hurricane Kirk getting caught in the Jet Stream next week, phasing with a more usual Atlantic low, and crossing the UK the second half of next week. Would bring severe stormy weather.

 

[Millie]

Bit of a possible advanced warning.

Forecast models showing a chance of ex-hurricane Kirk getting caught in the Jet Stream next week, phasing with a more usual Atlantic low, and crossing the UK the second half of next week. Would bring severe stormy weather.

 

Wonderful

[Nobby Reserve]

This would be unpleasant, with the strongest winds (force 11 or even 12) hitting North Wales, NW England, NI and Western Scotland.

I'd prefer it to pass through about 200 miles south.

[sheepfest]

Bit of a possible advanced warning.

Forecast models showing a chance of ex-hurricane Kirk getting caught in the Jet Stream next week, phasing with a more usual Atlantic low, and crossing the UK the second half of next week. Would bring severe stormy weather.

 

I think now might be the time to finally try and have an end of summer garden tidy up.

[Nobby Reserve]

I think now might be the time to finally try and have an end of summer garden tidy up.

Definitely!

That chart I posted was worst case scenario for N Wales/NW England/W Scotland, as the strongest winds are always to the south of the 'eye'

Subsequent model output runs have moved the track back further south. Most have the 'eye' passing over NW England, and so the threat of the most destructive winds would be over the SW/S Wales/Midlands/South.

As the depression has formed in the tropics (it could actually have tropical storm characteristics until just 24 hours before I reaches our shores), one thing it will bring to all is copious amounts of rain.

Now being forecast to reach the UK next Wednesday/Thursday. I'd write off these two days if you're planning anything.

[reddebs]

Definitely!

That chart I posted was worst case scenario for N Wales/NW England/W Scotland, as the strongest winds are always to the south of the 'eye'

Subsequent model output runs have moved the track back further south. Most have the 'eye' passing over NW England, and so the threat of the most destructive winds would be over the SW/S Wales/Midlands/South.

As the depression has formed in the tropics (it could actually have tropical storm characteristics until just 24 hours before I reaches our shores), one thing it will bring to all is copious amounts of rain.

Now being forecast to reach the UK next Wednesday/Thursday. I'd write off these two days if you're planning anything.

Still showing as early hours of Friday morning for north east Anglesey.

[Nobby Reserve]

Still showing as early hours of Friday morning for north east Anglesey.

You'll be looking at an app/site that uses the American GFS model. GFS has the arrival delayed by about 24 hours behind the UK Met, European and Canadian models.

Latest run of the GFS has the low centred over Cardigan Bay by Thursday evening, then drifts it directly north overnight, before filling it and moving the weakened low into the North Sea

But yes, provisionally write off Friday as well!

[reddebs]

You'll be looking at an app/site that uses the American GFS model. GFS has the arrival delayed by about 24 hours behind the UK Met, European and Canadian models.

Latest run of the GFS has the low centred over Cardigan Bay by Thursday evening, then drifts it directly north overnight, before filling it and moving the weakened low into the North Sea

But yes, provisionally write off Friday as well!

We use the one they use at RAF valley but no idea where the info comes from 🤷

[afc tukrish]

We use the one they use at RAF valley but no idea where the info comes from 🤷

Just use Nobby...

[Nobby Reserve]

Most overnight output decreases the risk of a severe storm hitting the UK, as they each weaken Hurricane Kirk before it reaches within a thousand miles, so the phasing ('merging' if you like) with the standard Atlantic low doesn't happen and Kirk fizzles out.

One model is sticking to the scenario, though, so it cannot be ruled out completely.

[Nobby Reserve]

Most overnight output decreases the risk of a severe storm hitting the UK, as they each weaken Hurricane Kirk before it reaches within a thousand miles, so the phasing ('merging' if you like) with the standard Atlantic low doesn't happen and Kirk fizzles out.

One model is sticking to the scenario, though, so it cannot be ruled out completely.

Over the last 24 hours, model output has moved to put the track of the storm over northern France, with just the south coast of England getting strong winds