Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Kenny's Jacket]

[Red Beret]

If the Tories grab those Mayoral elections then it won't matter how bad they do the rest of the night. The RW media will trumpet from the rooftops that the corner has been turned. They don't really have a choice, but it's a narrative that can't be allowed to gain any traction.

This is the last big test before the election so I'm hoping Labour match expectations. I still remember 1992, where the locals took place after the GE; it was so stomach wrenching as the defeat hurt so much and was unexpected. The Tories actually made gains in the locals as all the Labour voters were too depressed to go out and vote. The 1992 locals remain the only election I ever skipped.

With a bit of luck, these locals confirm the polls.

[reddebs]

Yep. It's f*cked here and i'm ashamed to be currently living here in one of the wards where i fear the pig headed b*llend who is running for Reform is going to get in.

Stuck my vote in for the Labour candidate but i don't think it'll matter, makes me ill thinking about it.

Thankfully I'm only there for a couple of days every 5 or 6 weeks but it's been the same conversation since pre Brexit. 

Immigrants ruining the country.

Taking the jobs.
Taking the benefits.
Taking school places
Taking doctors appointments.
Taking the houses.


I have to bite my tongue so as not to lay into them but at least I don't have to listen to it every day now I've moved

[TepidT2O]

Peak Johnson

[killer-heels]

If the Tories grab those Mayoral elections then it won't matter how bad they do the rest of the night. The RW media will trumpet from the rooftops that the corner has been turned. They don't really have a choice, but it's a narrative that can't be allowed to gain any traction.

This is the last big test before the election so I'm hoping Labour match expectations. I still remember 1992, where the locals took place after the GE; it was so stomach wrenching as the defeat hurt so much and was unexpected. The Tories actually made gains in the locals as all the Labour voters were too depressed to go out and vote. The 1992 locals remain the only election I ever skipped.

With a bit of luck, these locals confirm the polls.

I wouldnt stress about the locals, the Tories are toast in the general election. Also Hall isnt winning London.

[Kenny's Jacket]

Peak Johnson

Yep, the rules dont apply to me.

[Statto Red]

Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 UPDATE: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson tried to use an envelope with his name and address on it as photo ID

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786127915106644121

What a moron.

[PaulF]

Peak Johnson

I'm assuming that sadly this  will fail a fact check. So Im not going to and I'm just going to enjoy the moment.

I applied for one a few months ago but it's not arrived. I forgot about it. I don't think they are polling here ( and I have passport and dl), but still....

[Red Beret]

I'm assuming that sadly this  will fail a fact check. So Im not going to and I'm just going to enjoy the moment.

I applied for one a few months ago but it's not arrived. I forgot about it. I don't think they are polling here ( and I have passport and dl), but still....

It was in the Guardian.

[PaulF]

It was in the Guardian.

Definitely don't belive it then 😊

[TSC]

Definitely don't belive it then 😊

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-02/boris-johnson-turned-away-from-voting-after-forgetting-photo-id

[Statto Red]

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-02/boris-johnson-turned-away-from-voting-after-forgetting-photo-id

To add to the farce, he tried to use an envelope with his name and address on it as photo ID.

[filopastry]

I presume he did it for a bit of free publicity, looking like a  complete weapon never seems to have done him any harm with his core vote.

[Libertine]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

[killer-heels]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

Lolz

[thaddeus]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

Ooof!  I think the only silver lining for the Tories might be retaining the Birmingham mayor.  I don't see that appeasing many of the Tory MPs though.

[Phineus]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

Bloodbath.

[smicer07]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

That would be Utopia.

[jillcwhomever]

Bring it on. 

[Fromola]

Ooof!  I think the only silver lining for the Tories might be retaining the Birmingham mayor.  I don't see that appeasing many of the Tory MPs though.

Hasn't Street basically distanced himself from the Tories as much as possible to try and win that?

[filopastry]

Hasn't Street basically distanced himself from the Tories as much as possible to try and win that?

Sounds like the West Mids race is going to be tight, sadly it does sound like Houchen will win in Tees valley.

Khan should win London comfortably enough, but the lower turnout is the more nervous he will be.

[killer-heels]

Sounds like the West Mids race is going to be tight, sadly it does sound like Houchen will win in Tees valley.

Khan should win London comfortably enough, but the lower turnout is the more nervous he will be.

Houchen was always going to win that. Plus the North East are wrong un’s.

Think Street will nick the West Midlands one. If he loses that then there will be much more loud calls for Sunak to go.

[filopastry]

Labour winning the North Yorkshire mayoral vote though would be a story that would cut through, especially given Sunak represents a seat in the area.

[thaddeus]

Houchen was always going to win that. Plus the North East are wrong un’s.

Think Street will nick the West Midlands one. If he loses that then there will be much more loud calls for Sunak to go.

They do seem to have some weird Tory fetish recently.  I know it's been the poster area for levelling up but for every pound spent on a headline grabber the Tories will have taken five back through cuts.

Houchen is a great example of it with minor achievements like Darlington being the northern base for the Treasury being championed but the ongoing Teeswork scandal overlooked by many.  I think a change of administration there and a more transparent look at the bookkeeping could see Houchen in a spot of bother with the law.

[TepidT2O]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

Hmmm this is actually really quite a lot worse than the reasonable worst case scenarios being put up inthe last few days.  Nobody had them losing more than 400 seats. Nobody.


Oh well, never mind, how sad.

[Libertine]

There's the Blackpool South by-election as well.

Britain Elects predicting a 20 point Labour win.

[west_london_red]

Hmmm this is actually really quite a lot worse than the reasonable worst case scenarios being put up inthe last few days.  Nobody had them losing more than 400 seats. Nobody.


Oh well, never mind, how sad.

I definitely heard talk of 400 losses for the Tories as a reasonable realistic bad scenario.

[filopastry]

Yes that seat loss projection seems a bit on the heavy side

[Statto Red]

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
Follow
Some Early *RUMOURS*...

1. Blackpool South nailed on LAB GAIN – Reform 15-20%

2. LAB confident of widespread gains – some significant (e.g. Rushmoor) – although some pockets of weakness (Oxford, Rochdale)

3. Khan likely to hold London but will be closer than expected.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786140409539792975

[TepidT2O]

I definitely heard talk of 400 losses for the Tories as a reasonable realistic bad scenario.

and it’s 20% worse even than that!

[Red Beret]

@BritainElects
NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

Net change in council seats for...
-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib Dem
+52 | Greeen
+24 | Other

The Tories will probably champion anything less than 500 losses as a triumph.

[Libertine]

@georgeeaton
Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.


Even a close win would be a shock here, considering Labour are 20pts ahead nationally (which must be even higher in London).
Reflects terribly on Khan, but also the Tories - any reasonably moderate candidate (if they still exist) could probably have won.

[west_london_red]

The Tories will probably champion anything less than 500 losses as a triumph.

If they take London that will be their win right there.

[killer-heels]

@georgeeaton
Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.


Even a close win would be a shock here, considering Labour are 20pts ahead nationally (which must be even higher in London).
Reflects terribly on Khan, but also the Tories - any reasonably moderate candidate (if they still exist) could probably have won.

Yep Labour will be breathing a sigh of relief that they went for Hall. Strategically great as ULEZ is at peak disastisfaction.

[filopastry]

Turnout will be everything in London, there is a significant minority who viscerally hate Khan, they will vote for Hall whatever, the Labour vote probably a bit less motivated to be honest.

The lower turnout is, the more worried Labour will be.

I suspect Khan wins but it will be closer than expected.

[killer-heels]

Just to add there is also a by-election today, which Labour looks likely to have won.

[TheShanklyGates]

@georgeeaton
Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.


Even a close win would be a shock here, considering Labour are 20pts ahead nationally (which must be even higher in London).
Reflects terribly on Khan, but also the Tories - any reasonably moderate candidate (if they still exist) could probably have won.

Would be pretty damning for the pollsters if the result is close. The smallest lead recorded this year for Khan by any poll was 13%.

[TepidT2O]

Would be pretty damning for the pollsters if the result is close. The smallest lead recorded this year for Khan by any poll was 13%.

The count doesn’t start until saturnday so how anyone could make these predictions is baffling.

[Statto Red]

Turnout will be everything in London, there is a significant minority who viscerally hate Khan, they will vote for Hall whatever, the Labour vote probably a bit less motivated to be honest.

The lower turnout is, the more worried Labour will be.

I suspect Khan wins but it will be closer than expected.

Suspect the turnout is low in London, why they think the result is going to be close

[filopastry]

Suspect the turnout is low in London, why they think the result is going to be close

Bookies not too convinced mind you, Hall is 12/1 to win