The polls closed an hour ago and since I’m passing time at Labour HQ until the serious results are confirmed, I thought I would update those interested in the NZ election - in something like real time.
Most readers will know that NZ elected a Labour government under Jacinda Ardern in 2017. This was, as is usual since the adoption of MMP (mixed-member proportional) in 1996, a coalition. Very oddly, with Winston Peter’s New Zealand First party. NZF is a populist, somewhat nationalist/anti-immigration party largely supported by elderly rural voters, and Winston has been a lively figure in politics for years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_New_ZealandThe main opposition is National, very much a conservative party akin to the Tories when they were reasonably centrist - and had been the government for the preceding decade. They have had a collective aneurysm recently, knifing their leader Simon Bridges a few months ago, replacing him with the assassin Todd Muller (only known for being the target of the meme “OK Boomer” levelled at him by the Green MP Chloe Swarbrick after he heckled her in Parliament) who bailed with stress after a few weeks. (He also had a Trump MAGA hat on display) Then they chose Judith ‘Crusher’ Collins as leader - a woman who sports a smirk that indicates she eats tiny children of an evening and is looking forward to the ketchup. (Her role model is a certain Thatcher).
Minor parties in the mix are the abovementioned New Zealand First, David Seymour’s ACT (a libertarian, right wing party that have had just the one MP for years) and the Greens. There is also the Maori Party trying to get back into parliament and several minor parties that have no hope of making the 5% or winning a direct electorate.
A staggering early vote of nearly 2m voters means the results will be much earlier than usual.
So current state of play (on the party vote percentages)
Update Edit:
50% votes counted:
49.7% Labour (65 seats)
26.5% National (35 seats)
7.9% Green (10 seats)
7.9% ACT (10 seats)
2.4% NZF (0 seats)
Labour are killing it, and look like they will form a majority government (which has not happened before under MMP) We need 61 seats to do this without the Greens, and projected at 65 at present with 10 Greens.
The swing to the left (Labour plus Greens) is huge. National may be losing rural seats that have been blue for decades. They are on course to be under 30% for only the third time since the beginning of the last century (and one of those was 1939). ACT has stolen a good chunk of conservative voters. NZF look like they are toast, with less than 3% so far.
It’s great
National might be losing Rangitīkei which hasn't gone Labour since the thirties.
NB There are also two referenda that were voted on, one for the legalisation of cannabis, and one for the legalisation of euthanasia. We won't know the results of those for a couple of weeks.
Edit: OK, the prime minister is on her way so I'm off to get pissed and then watch the Derby at half past midnight. I'll update tomorrow.
