Topic: Liverpool's transfer policy

[Irish Red 94]

If our policy is to buy young and up coming quality who are yet to hit their peak that represent value i can understand the signing of Tom Ince but for the life of me Sturridge at the 12m fee(reported) makes no sense at all. To get real value out of a system like this you need to be finding players like Agger who do not have a big reputation but the necessary quality thats how you get value for money.

From here on in our policy should be a mixture of youth(that have quality rather than a reputation) and players who have consistently proven their talent and worth and the higher scale of things. A perfect example of this would be Soldado of Valencia. He shows great quality and consistency but flies under the radar a bit and would not claim a massive fee. He is 27 so does that mean we rule him out? i certainly hope not.

And for the young talent that represents value why not the likes of Moussa Sissoko . He is young talented and the fee would be fairly even as his contract hasn't long to go.

I'm not saying to go out and buy these exact players but our targets and 'policy' should be similiar

[RedHopper]

Honestly mate you need to slow down, write less and read more

I think I read plenty to be honest. probably far too much considering the grief I'm getting for reading the guardiola biography, and trying to share some of he more interesting bits on another thread. the poster I was replying to was suggesting that I thought that we should find better players, or pick more winners,  but that requires magic. I'm suggesting that we follow a risk minimization policy. Buying players is not a science, it's an art and it requires a lot of luck. But you can limit the effect of your mistakes, and improve your chances of success by following certain processes.

our problem is that we treat every signing like they're going to be the messiah or something, and we don't protect ourselves. We're the equivalent of a hopeless romantic who goes around offering our heart, and the keys of our house to nearly every woman we meet that we take half a shine to. (or man, depending on your individual preferences) and we never seem to learn that a lot of the time it's going to go wrong, and are almost suprised when it does.

I think that this is where we need to make our big changes. we need to assume that there is a good chance that it may not work, and plan for that possibility, while working hard to make it a success.

[Welshred]

Have we recruited everyone?

Head of Developement - Borrell?
Head of Scouting/Recruitment - Fallows?
Head of Analytics - Edwards?
Head of Medical - Zaf Iqbal
Head of Negociation - Ian Ayre

Sorted

[RedHopper]

If our policy is to buy young and up coming quality who are yet to hit their peak that represent value i can understand the signing of Tom Ince but for the life of me Sturridge at the 12m fee(reported) makes no sense at all. To get real value out of a system like this you need to be finding players like Agger who do not have a big reputation but the necessary quality thats how you get value for money.

that's fair enough, but right now we're short up front, and we're still setting up our scouting system, and we have to make a bit of a compromise. If Sturridge turns out well, he'll be cheap at the price. He's young, he's not going to be on insane wages, and 12 million quid is fairly reasonable, given what we've spent on players over the years. and if he doesn't set the world on fire, we can sell him on in a couple of years. We're not quite in a position to be hounding down the aggers just yet. Remember rafa was able to draw on his enormous knowledge of spain, and sign players he'd have been happy to sign for valencia. Some were raging successes like xabi, pepe, luis, torres. Some not so much. 

From here on in our policy should be a mixture of youth(that have quality rather than a reputation) and players who have consistently proven their talent and worth and the higher scale of things. A perfect example of this would be Soldado of Valencia. He shows great quality and consistency but flies under the radar a bit and would not claim a massive fee. He is 27 so does that mean we rule him out? i certainly hope not.

I suppose it would depend on the sums involved. Soldado is 28 at the end of the season, he's under contract to 2017, is from valencia. He's a fine player but he wouldn't be cheap, which brings us onto your next point.

And for the young talent that represents value why not the likes of Moussa Sissoko . He is young talented and the fee would be fairly even as his contract hasn't long to go

I think that in the short term we need to start looking at players whose contracts are expiring. And then start lining up next years targets, and the year after based on contract expiry. It's amazing how many players in the last year of their contract can't bring themselves to sign another one and wind up at man utd. Andy carroll had just signed a new contract, jordan henderson and charlie adam had just start contracts, stewart downing had two years left, which is why he cost more than one year ashley young. but he was only ever going one place.

It's things like that that can help us get value for our money. not who would we like to get in an ideal world, but who can we get, and from that set of players, identify ones with the qualities and talent that they need.

[john_mac]

To be fair mate, in the last few minutes you are just illustrating the point, you are just elaborating on your own views

[Irish Red 94]

that's fair enough, but right now we're short up front, and we're still setting up our scouting system, and we have to make a bit of a compromise. If Sturridge turns out well, he'll be cheap at the price. He's young, he's not going to be on insane wages, and 12 million quid is fairly reasonable, given what we've spent on players over the years. and if he doesn't set the world on fire, we can sell him on in a couple of years. We're not quite in a position to be hounding down the aggers just yet. Remember rafa was able to draw on his enormous knowledge of spain, and sign players he'd have been happy to sign for valencia. Some were raging successes like xabi, pepe, luis, torres. Some not so much. 

I agree with your point totally i just feel maybe if we looked outside England we could find a similiar talent for maybe a smaller fee for example Pablo Hernandez to swansea. Im just worried we are overspending on English players simply because of  their nationality when we could sign from outside the league for better value.

I suppose it would depend on the sums involved. Soldado is 28 at the end of the season, he's under contract to 2017, is from valencia. He's a fine player but he wouldn't be cheap, which brings us onto your next point.

I personally don't think Soldado would be all that expensive to be honest with the position Valencia are in however he was just an example of the calibre player we should be targetting in order to improve and give us a bit of stability as we develop our philosophy.

I think that in the short term we need to start looking at players whose contracts are expiring. And then start lining up next years targets, and the year after based on contract expiry. It's amazing how many players in the last year of their contract can't bring themselves to sign another one and wind up at man utd. Andy carroll had just signed a new contract, jordan henderson and charlie adam had just start contracts, stewart downing had two years left, which is why he cost more than one year ashley young. but he was only ever going one place.

It's things like that that can help us get value for our money. not who would we like to get in an ideal world, but who can we get, and from that set of players, identify ones with the qualities and talent that they need.

Thats an excellent point and i totally agree we should be targetting such players and using their contract situation as a bargaining tool

[Suareznumber7]

I think our transfer policy is comparable to policy used by many american sports team where when a team full of old players is underperforming the owners would dismantle the team and replace them with prospects, they would slash the wage bill and keep the expectations low for a while and when the players reach close to there prime they will start challenging for titles they make the final push. FSG seem to be doing the same, they want to bring through a generation of players who all prime at the same time and when the time comes they can make the big investment. I don't doubt there intentions but in football you have shite like CL and if a team stays out of it for long the big players just won't go there.

this seems pretty much spot on at the moment doesn't it.

[John C]

To be fair mate, in the last few minutes you are just illustrating the point, you are just elaborating on your own views

He won't read that John, but he'll come back with another 15 paragraph post. I'm surprised 24/7 hasn't changed his name to RedWhopper.

(no offence like Hopper mate)

[Suareznumber7]

Its not just us though young players is the trend throughout Europe so the competition in signing the top talents is huge almost leaving a opportunity in signing players 27+ for clubs like us who have no oil money but still aim for the top. Wenger I believe has spotted this as he was at the front of the trend sweeping up talented youth players but now the last 2 summers .... Arteta, Mertesacker & Carzola. A few signing like that adding experience would help bring on our young players I believe.

Think this has more to do with the fact that he is losing all his best players to other clubs rather than what you are suggesting.  If he was able to hold on to his best players every year I don't think he would be doing anything but purchasing young players. 

[Mighty_Red]

I agree with the "buy young" policy as a philosophy, but that doesn't mean we should completely ignore older players.

The key is working smarter. This was something Rafa talked about when comparing ourselves to Chelsea or Man u, we couldn't out-spend them so we had to do clever things - with free transfers, the odd risk here and there.

Some worked, some didn't - and even though some became scapegoats (e.g. Voronin) the key was that they didn't cripple the club when they didn't work out. Bellamy for free was a great bit of business, and at least Maxi did a job for us even if he was not long term.

Of course, Downing is the big anomaly in last summers dealings - over the target age and over priced - it was a big ego purchase by Comolli. At Ģ12m it may created just a little less pressure on Downing and would make it easier to sell on without worrying about massive losses.

Sometimes we get a little too obsessed with wages - if a player can do a job for us and is someone that the younger players can learn from then we shouldn't be missing out on them. Of course if we have too many on high wages it becomes a problem, but I think we have largely dealt with that now.

[Zeb]

Some worked, some didn't - and even though some became scapegoats (e.g. Voronin) the key was that they didn't cripple the club when they didn't work out.

Not sure I agree with that specifically mate, and I think it's one of those things which may help us understand where things are coming from.

The cumulative effect of the free signings and cheap players on high wages was crippling. But then it was a result of a transfer policy which was forced too far down a particular path, where we were punting the cost of players almost fully into their wages because the transfer budget kept disappearing; but it ultimately leads to a vicious cycle which leads to greater risk taking to keep the whole thing running over the long term. In fact, it's doubtful whether it can be juggled successfully over the long term without something else coming into the equation - Rafa's focus on the youth side of things may well have been his longterm get out of jail plan.

It seems that to avoid repeating that mistake there's a temptation to head off down the opposite course. Yet extremes aren't going to be successful here one way or the other. You need the balance within the squad and the manager shouldn't have to be fighting to obtain that and should have the flexibility to do a bit of leftfield work - which seems to be the general theme of your post, and it's one I very much agree with.

[RedHopper]

To be fair mate, in the last few minutes you are just illustrating the point, you are just elaborating on your own views

I'm not sure that I get your point. Your initial response to me seemed a long way wide of what I was suggesting, and was a bit reductive to be honest, so I tried to explain my point a little bit better. I'm more concerned with risk minimization rather than winner picking. Your next post seemed unrelated, and a little confusing, and to be honest I thought I was engaging with a rather good post by Irish red 94. 

[john_mac]

I'm not sure that I get your point. Your initial response to me seemed a long way wide of what I was suggesting, and was a bit reductive to be honest, so I tried to explain my point a little bit better. I'm more concerned with risk minimization rather than winner picking. Your next post seemed unrelated, and a little confusing, and to be honest I thought I was engaging with a rather good post by Irish red 94. 

I'm not your teacher mate, I'm not marking your work, just carry on getting carried away with how essential your own opinion is, if you want.

[RedHopper]

I'm not your teacher mate, I'm not marking your work, just carry on getting carried away with how essential your own opinion is, if you want.

ah, well bearing that in mind,  you'll see I thought you were talking about what i was saying, rather than how I was saying it. I think I see where the confusion was coming from.

[Mighty_Red]

The cumulative effect of the free signings and cheap players on high wages was crippling. But then it was a result of a transfer policy which was forced too far down a particular path, where we were punting the cost of players almost fully into their wages because the transfer budget kept disappearing;

Don't forget that our revenues were far higher then - we were a champions league club - we needed players with european experience and we needed a bigger squad.

Even the signing of Cole was not a hopeless move financially. Yes we are paying big wages and he has had maybe 2 good games for us but we should not look at his current wages in isolation - some of that was due to the absence of a fee. Of course, that has meant that the burden has been left to FSG to pay him this huge wage. In the end, it is his performances on the pitch that has caused the issues.

What has crippled us is spending so much in transfer fees with little prospect in getting much of it back, and not having enough success on the field to pay it back.

If the players on big money perform then they will always give value for money that is the key. We've had too many players in the last 3 years that have not done that and that's why the amount of money splashed in them is now in the spotlight.

[Zeb]

Don't forget that our revenues were far higher then - we were a champions league club - we needed players with european experience and we needed a bigger squad.

Even the signing of Cole was not a hopeless move financially. Yes we are paying big wages and he has had maybe 2 good games for us but we should not look at his current wages in isolation - some of that was due to the absence of a fee. Of course, that has meant that the burden has been left to FSG to pay him this huge wage. In the end, it is his performances on the pitch that has caused the issues.

What has crippled us is spending so much in transfer fees with little prospect in getting much of it back, and not having enough success on the field to pay it back.

If the players on big money perform then they will always give value for money that is the key. We've had too many players in the last 3 years that have not done that and that's why the amount of money splashed in them is now in the spotlight.

Revenues were the same mate. The commercial side has covered the hole left by CL football minus Europa League revenue. Very much disagree with your theory that it was transfer fees which were initial problem (although definitely factor now) but not sure right thread for discussion? Revisiting very old ground and ends up being hijacked away from discussion to one line condemnations. Could probably dig up a more relevant thread to continue and I'll post something more substantial to see where we're differing in analysis more clearly if it's something you'd like to discuss. Think we're saying the same fundamental thing from two different standpoints so maybe not worth continuing. Agree that 'value' is relative to performance. And we've failed a lot with that for the past three decades. Not consistently failed, but failed too frequently. Question moving forward seems to be who defines 'value'. Logic would say that the man whose head is on the chopping block for results day in and day out should have the deciding vote - 'their opinion, his decision'. Or is there a case for it being removed from him totally and instead asking him to make bricks with the straw provided but keep in mind his requests for the type of straw needed? Can see both sides to a degree.

[RedHopper]

I agree with the "buy young" policy as a philosophy, but that doesn't mean we should completely ignore older players.

The key is working smarter. This was something Rafa talked about when comparing ourselves to Chelsea or Man u, we couldn't out-spend them so we had to do clever things - with free transfers, the odd risk here and there.

I think that we may have missed a bit of a trick there. there's two problems with free transfers, one is outlined by zeb, in that you wind up paying the player a signing fee, which gets booted into wages. The other is that if a player is half way decent, he'll have been snapped up when he has one year left. To go all ian holloway for a moment, it's like the difference between making your move 20 minutes before closing, rather than waiting until the lights go up. Sure you'll still find someone to go home, but it's more likely to be a bolo zenden, joe cole milan jovanovic or phillip degen, or Andriy Voronin, than a shinji kagawa, or a moussa dembele. (I think) and like ian holloway i'll leave that extended metaphor burning brightly as we all hurry away. 

Some worked, some didn't - and even though some became scapegoats (e.g. Voronin) the key was that they didn't cripple the club when they didn't work out. Bellamy for free was a great bit of business, and at least Maxi did a job for us even if he was not long term.

heh, I have a joe cole and a milan jovanovic that would beg to differ. Bellamy was good for the first six months, but he didn't score after january, but there were a lot of different reasons for that though, and tragically not necessarily football related. It really is something you have to be very careful about. it's like buying something in a carboot sale. you kind of have to ask why is this merchandise on sale here.

Sometimes we get a little too obsessed with wages - if a player can do a job for us and is someone that the younger players can learn from then we shouldn't be missing out on them. Of course if we have too many on high wages it becomes a problem, but I think we have largely dealt with that now.

mind you, when you reportedly get martin kelly's agent pointing at downing and henderson's wages, you kind of start to see the importance of a solid wage structure, with as few outliers or exceptions, particularly if homegrown players start to notice that they're not getting the same signing on bonuses, or wage rises that players who come into the club get.

[BazC]

The transfer policy is a result of the constraints the club is facing. I reckon Rodgers, Henry et al would love to be able to go in for Ģ40-50m players who could come in and immediately add to the team. But they can't.

The big thing here is how the big money sales of Torres, Alonso and Mascherano were wasted; it amounted to a massive destruction in value because suddenly Ģ100m worth of talent was turned into Carroll, Aquilani, Henderson and Downing; at least a couple are arguably not even good enough to play for a top team let alone replace world class talent they were supposed to. That debacle last year meant a transfer policy of having to buy players on the cheap was inevitable (no matter how much people moan about Henry et al not putting the money in; they were never going to be the Abramovich/Abu Dhabi type). If you're having to buy cheap players, you may as well buy young because there's a chance they'll turn into world class players.

Rafa spent years wheeling and dealing his way to a side containing incredible talent - we went from the likes of Baros and Cisse to Torres via Crouch and Bellamy. Hamann turned into Mascherano via Sissoko. Dudek became Reina...

It took years for that; because the money wasn't there to just go and buy a Ģ20m player straight off. It took one year to turn it back to an average set of players who shouldn't have cost half what they did. It set us back many years.

The only real success story has been Suarez; the club will make a big profit on him if they choose, but at the end of the day he'll still need to be replaced.

Now we have to start hoping that the Ģ10m players can help take this club forward. We're going back to the days of signings like Crouch, Bellamy, Garcia, Agger and Alonso. We need to hope that we turn a few of these Ģ10m young players into the top class talent- like Agger and Alonso proved to be.

Basically, it comes down to nous- our scouts and Rodgers picking up on top class talent which hasn't been picked up by the rest of the market (otherwise they wouldnt be cheap) and a shitload of luck. It's way too early to say if Rodgers has it, but if the scouting team is the same as it has been these last few years, I'm really not holding my breath.

[Seba_Uruguay]

I agree with the "buy young policy", it makes a lot of sense. Both for sport and economic reasons.
What I just canīt get is this "buy british" obsession LFC seems to have.
Why would you pay more for players that are good or decent when you can get better players for less money abroad???
ITīS INSANE.
Just look at the top clubs right now fighting for the title on the Premier, almost every player they have as starters are foreign players. Sure, they have 2 or 3 English players on there starting sheets, but they are never the stars of the team.
And if they are (like on Rooney, Terry or Hart cases) they are waaaaay over hyped. Just look at Englandīs National Team, when was the last time they won anything??? Thatīs not a coincidence.
When LFC learns from the mistakes of the past and start looking for REAL talent, then we will make it back to the top.
As long as the club keeps settling for decent players, that will never happen.

[Gainsbarre]

[Ozzie Red]

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/football/Premiership/article1184675.ece

Please see attached link, If I have posted in the wrong section please forgive, no quotes though so do not know validity, makes you wonder though given all the hullabalo during the summer?

will someone please tell BR and FSG we are Liverpool, (in other words I believe it)

[arcticus]

This has to be a joke...

[Max_powers]

This has to be a joke...

 
I think it was. How could have have any sane individual  suggested that we should sell Agger and replace him with swansea back-up CB.

[RedHopper]

 
I think it was. How could have have any sane individual  suggested that we should sell Agger and replace him with swansea back-up CB.

based on his performances so far this season do  you thnk we should have accepted the 30 million for agger?

[LoveLFCsomuch]

inexperienced players, inexperienced manager, plus incompetent managing director. FSG is shooting themselves in the foot

[arcticus]

based on his performances so far this season do  you thnk we should have accepted the 30 million for agger?

Say we did then would we have gotten more mediocrity instead?

[vicgill]

Sums up pretty much how the whole fanbase is feeling right now, it's be great to add potential quality like Sturridge and Ince if we had the quality in front of them for them to learn off.

If I bought someone for Ģ12 million I would expect them to know how to play.

[RedHopper]

Say we did then would we have gotten more mediocrity instead?

Possibly, but watching agger getting mugged in the first game of the season, and looking at a lot of his error strewn performances since then, 30 million looks like a lot of money. To be honest I didn't know very much about alan tate, but looking him up on wikipedia, he appears to have started out at man utd, (probably not a good thing) and been an important figure in their promotion season. He missed nearly all of last season though after getting his leg trapped between a golf buggy and a tree. buying him would have been a very strange move. particularly as he's 30.  but there would have been another 24 million to soften the blow, and find other players.

It would however have enabled us to sign a couple of forwards, and fill out other areas of the squad. i suppose it's all swings and roundabouts really.