If there is any game in which a win will show some definite measure of progress, it is surely going to be the game versus Stoke. The Britannia is a veritable fortress this season, something which we aspire Anfield to return to being. Pulis, for all his detractors, is a clever tactical coach who knows what he needs to do to win games, knows how many game he needs to win, and knows which teams he needs to beat. For all intents and purposes, Liverpool is not on that list as far as Pulis is concerned, but it's a nice scalp all the same. We have actually done well against Stoke, in recent history, in terms of wins and losses, but the scorelines have been tight, and the Boxing Day game should be no different. The difference this season is that Stoke are probably hitting a peak in terms of the effectiveness of Pulis' tactics, and Liverpool are in a period of transition (although not as severe as some would think). An interesting view of the game is that it is a real clash of styles, with Stoke playing percentage football and Liverpool looking to play a risk-reducing possession game that relies on starving the opposition of possession and thus the ability to attack. The counterpoint, though, is that Stoke are happy to play the waiting game. What will hold them back, from their own perspective, is their lack of firepower up front (only 15 goals scored in the league), and their reliance on set-piece play (40% of goals scored). If they can't make their set-pieces count, they might find it difficult to score. As it happens, we are actually reasonably good at defending set-pieces (only 17% of our goals conceded). It promises to be a mini-game in itself - Stoke's attacking set-pieces versus our set-piece defending. They might actually turn into the match-defining moments - defend them well, and Stoke may struggle to find any attacking joy. Defend them badly, and it might be another case of "two steps back".
Stoke's Shape - Stoke generally play in a system that works as a 4-2-3-1, even though it is usually displayed as a 4-4-1-1. There is no real difference between the two, except the defensive positions of the outside mids; they retreat rather than press on loss of possession. The right side of Stoke's system is the key area for them, and that is where they will play a lot of their diagonal long balls to their target forward (Jones or Crouch). The flip side is that they can leave this side exposed on transition, and although we are a possession team, if Gerrard has a similar game to the Fulham game, expect him to drop to support centrally, receive the ball, and look to play the left winger/Enrique into the space. If Suarez has his thinking cap on, this will be a game where he will gravitate more to our left side instead of working across the line. Attacking this space will also allow Downing more space, as against Fulham, as the Stoke back four shift across to cover the space when the right-back (Shotton?) pushes forward. In fact, if we can keep them shifting from central to their right, and possess the ball back across to Downing (if he plays there), we might see a chance of a penalty with a few through balls into the gaps. Playing between the lines for us against Stoke should be more concerned with playing in the channels between defenders, rather than the zones between the units. Beating their two defensive mids will be key. Lucas is sure to start, Gerrard probably will, so the question is who makes the third spot. Suso did well against Fulham, but it might need the energy of Henderson to totally disrupt any midfield possession they might look to use (from the second ball, rather than building play through the thirds). Their outside mids will look to get beyond the target forward, so the ability of the fullbacks to track into these spaces is crucial - and although three at the back would be a logical choice against Stoke, the good work of Skrtel and Agger in closing the space between them on transition should be enough to counter Stoke's attacks, if they can play to a similar level in this game.
Set-pieces - The key, as said earlier, will be how we defend set-pieces, especially corners. Stoke score a large amount of goals in the 6-yard box, so it is important that every delivery they make into the area is dealt with efficiently and quickly. Of course, the best way to do this is to avoid giving them corners and free-kicks in dangerous positions in the first place. Having said that, for any event where they get to deliver a free ball in, we have to be first to the delivery, the second ball and the outball, as quick as we can. That also includes the men on the posts and the players in the box getting out to about 20 yards from goal with speed, to push the Stoke attackers away from the zone they are so effective in.
Patterns of Play - Although we are a high-pressing, high-line team, it might be a game where we drop off a little when Stoke get the ball. As good as he is, we can't rely solely on Reina to sweep up balls behind the defence if we're pushed up - one of them is bound to get past him in that situation. Whenever the Stoke fullbacks are free from pressure with the ball at their feet, it will be important for us to drop off, accept the long ball to our defenders, and build up from there. When they play the long ball, it will go to the target player who will be central; because the target player is central, the support runs will be tight and central. If they win the ball, they might look to play Shotton in on the overlap (if the forward hasn't flicked it on). What we need to do if we win these long balls, is to play wide as fast as we can, safely, to start to stretch the Stoke defensive unit. If their right-back is making a forward run, then playing into that space first will reap some rewards (Regained ball to Suarez/Sterling, Enrique on the overlap, carrier cuts inside, then has options to play back to onrushing midfielders, play to the overlapping Suarez, or slip to the back post area to Downing, for example). It will also force them to be more conservative, and a domino process will occur with their attacking threats dropping deeper to see the ball. This puts us at risk of their counter attacks, but it also congests the box, which increases the chances of a penalty (in normal circumstances!) being given from a dribble from Suarez or Sterling (or a run from Johnson). All in all, we have more patterns of play to hurt Stoke; the problem is that their pattern of play is second nature to them, and they have the powerful players to execute their pattern. If we can withstand their set-pieces, and keep the central defence area tight, I don't see a way for them to score. We might not put 4 past them like against Fulham, but we are definitely capable of getting a 1-0 or 2-1 score. Playing with the same quality and intensity as we did against Fulham will be a large step towards helping to achieve that
