This game could be very tight, or it could be a game where everything hits the target and we take a team to the cleaners. Either way, it doesn't look like a game we will lose.
Villa are definitely improving, but they are still ineffective in a large part of their game. Although they play a pressing game, it can break down quickly, exposing them at the back, and forcing them to play more of a midfield press. For this they usually play a 4-2-3-1 formation, which will dovetail nicely into our 4-3-3, zonally. Lucas, with a couple of games under his belt now, will probably step up in intensity, and might last the whole game. He will, as always, be vital for cycling the ball from side to side, but also because as Villa step up to add the offside trap to their press, Lucas' eye for the through ball might find them exposed more than they'd like. The key for us will be who plays in the wing forward positions - if Sterling gets rest and Enrique is good to play, Villa could be in for a nasty afternoon, because the two centrebacks will have enough on their hands looking after Suarez that a few through balls to Enrique or Sterling might just stretch them enough to create space for a good few shots from midfield from a late run.
They are very good at intercepting from their pressure positions, but their ability to hold on to the ball long after that is not great - they do have fast transitions, and Lambert does a LOT of high intensity pattern play in training to work on it, but if we can hold them off to the 5th or 6th pass they'll probably lose the ball (probably down the wings, so if Wisdom is good to play, him on the right and Johnson on the left might be the better options), at which point we just need to take advantage of their high line and look at playing some through balls, or else hold the ball and force them into their own defensive third. They don't have an efficient attack, and it is fairly predictable - they'll transition down the right side and look to set up the cross to a player running in to the back post from the left side - usually Agbonlahor. Wisdom might be the better player at dealing with him in terms of strength, giving Johnson some freedom to attack and cut in when Villa expose their right side on transition. But Downing didn't do too badly against West Ham, so he might start as LB with Johnson on the right. Johnson will have to work hard all game in that case - getting forward and then tracking Agbonlahor's runs to the back post.
In terms of the attack, barring a surprise shot or a brain fart, the back 6 won't have much to worry about. Lucas will have a strong game and Skrtel and Agger will be able to handle Bentenke and/or Bent (if he plays at all). The key for us will be who makes up the other two midfielders. Henderson has surely played his way into a starting position for a game like this. It is tailor made for him, with the midfield area - due to Villa's willingness to also press - likely to be an area of quick transitions which will suit his game sense down to the ground. He won't have time to think, will be playing on pure reaction, and will have Lucas with him to release the ball to when it is won. It will also cause Villa problems in their as they won't be able to get the ball out wide accurately enough with him snapping at their heels. The issue really is who plays the 3rd CM spot. Gerrard really, really needs to be rested. There's a case for Allen too. It could be that, with Villa playing such a high line, a combination of Lucas controlling, Henderson pressing and Sahin initiating the attacks (with Lucas) could be the best midfield combination to get the most out of our forwards (possibly, injuries permitting, Enrique, Suarez and Sterling). There's a case for Shelvey over Sahin, playing just behind the forwards, but this game will need a degree of quickness to take advantage of the moment of indecision for the Villa backline when they don't know when to drop and when to press - this is the kind of space and time that Suarez revels in, and it could be vital. Get it right, and we could be looking at another Norwich scoreline, but without the goals conceded. Get it wrong, and it will be a tight game we are never in danger of losing, but like Southampton, we'll be on the edge of our seats waiting for a second goal to settle it (or a first goal to take a lead!).
