Topic: The Run Home and CL Qualification

[slimbo]

With the blue side of Manchester seemingly having wrapped up the premiership it leaves a thrilling race for the last 3 CL spots.  Second and third spot favourable over fourth to avoid extra games in a World Cup year.

Comparing our run home against top eight teams it seems we’ve done a lot of the hard work already. Where do you think we’ll finish? 2nd seems possible looking at everyone’s run home.

Remaining games in EPL vs top 8 teams:

Liverpool - Spurs, United, Chelsea

United - Burnley, Spurs, Chelsea, Liverpool, City, Arsenal

Chelsea - United, City, Burnley, Spurs, Liverpool

Spurs - United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, City, Leicester

Arsenal - Spurs, City, Leicester, United, Burnley

[Garlicbread]

I think next year you won't have to play a qualifer if you finish 4th.

[PoetryInMotion]

I think next year you won't have to play a qualifer if you finish 4th.

Exactly. But finishing 2nd would be a huge boost and it will show that with a few improvements we'll be able to challenge for the league and play in 4 competitions at the same time (2013-14 was without Europe, so it's been a while since we did that).

[Buck Pete]

If an English club wins the CL does the Premiership get an extra place?

Sure I heard that somewhere?

[SP]

If an English club wins the CL does the Premiership get an extra place?

Sure I heard that somewhere?

Only if they have not already qualified.

[BazC]

If an English club wins the CL does the Premiership get an extra place?

Sure I heard that somewhere?

If an English team wins it but finishes outside top 4, they get into the CL, but the 4th placed team doesn’t. If the Europa League winning team is English and outside the top 4, they get into the CL but as the 5th team from the league.

[TheShanklyGates]

If an English team wins it but finishes outside top 4, they get into the CL, but the 4th placed team doesn’t. If the Europa League winning team is English and outside the top 4, they get into the CL but as the 5th team from the league.

Nope, England would have 5 teams in both the scenarios you describe.

[BazC]

They changed the rule recently?

[AndreTheMidget]

Winning our next 3 and having at least a 6 point gap on Spurs when the CL and all the hectic weeks start again would be great. We should get top 4 from here reasonably comfortably, we have a 3 point gap and have played City and Arsenal twice and even the tougher shit teams like Leicester and Burnley while Spurs have played the likes of Swansea and Everton twice. We are very well placed, I do fear a little what would happen if one of the front 3 got injured but then Spurs are fucked if Kane goes down so...!

[TheShanklyGates]

They changed the rule recently?

They changed it at the same time as whenever it was that they started giving a CL place to the EL winners.

[Nick110581]

Winning our next 3 and having at least a 6 point gap on Spurs when the CL and all the hectic weeks start again would be great. We should get top 4 from here reasonably comfortably, we have a 3 point gap and have played City and Arsenal twice and even the tougher shit teams like Leicester and Burnley while Spurs have played the likes of Swansea and Everton twice. We are very well placed, I do fear a little what would happen if one of the front 3 got injured but then Spurs are fucked if Kane goes down so...!

Spurs won 7 out of 8 matches he missed last year so that is a myth.

The ideal scenario is winning the next two before the Spurs match.

[Jookie]

We should get top 4 from here reasonably comfortably

We are playing really well at moment and look like one of the form teams in the league.

However, I don't think anyone with any certainty can say that top 4 from here looks comfortable. The same applies to United, Chelsea and Spurs by the way.

I expect it  to be a massive dog fight into the last few weeks of the season. I would;t be surprised if from 2nd to 5th was still open going into the last 2 or 3 games of the season.

[rob1966]

We will qualify as CL Winners

[AndreTheMidget]

Spurs won 7 out of 8 matches he missed last year so that is a myth.

The ideal scenario is winning the next two before the Spurs match.

Last season :

Tottenham 1 Leicester 1
Bournemouth 0 Tottenham 0
West Brom 1 Tottenham 1

Also totally fell apart in Europe in that time

And this season

Man Utd 1 Tottenham 0.

So no, not really a myth.

[PoetryInMotion]

If an English team wins it but finishes outside top 4, they get into the CL, but the 4th placed team doesn’t. If the Europa League winning team is English and outside the top 4, they get into the CL but as the 5th team from the league.

Not sure if the rules changed this season, but as far as I've been aware until recently

1) If an English team wins the CL and finishes below 4th, then the Top 4 and the CL winner will qualify.
2) If an English team wins the EL and finishes below 4th, then again the Top 4 and the EL winner will qualify.
3) If 2 English teams win the CL and the EL respectively and both finish below 4th, then the CL spot is chopped off for the 4th placed team. The Top 3 + CL winner + EL winner will qualify.

These are to ensure that a maximum of 5 teams will qualify from a single association.

[TheShanklyGates]

Not sure if the rules changed this season, but as far as I've been aware until recently

1) If an English team wins the CL and finishes below 4th, then the Top 4 and the CL winner will qualify.
2) If an English team wins the EL and finishes below 4th, then again the Top 4 and the EL winner will qualify.
3) If 2 English teams win the CL and the EL respectively and both finish below 4th, then the CL spot is chopped off for the 4th placed team. The Top 3 + CL winner + EL winner will qualify.

These are to ensure that a maximum of 5 teams will qualify from a single association.

This is spot on.

https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/46/71/38/2467138_DOWNLOAD.pdf

Relevant section is on page 12.

[Jookie]

Last season :

Tottenham 1 Leicester 1
Bournemouth 0 Tottenham 0
West Brom 1 Tottenham 1

Also totally fell apart in Europe in that time

And this season

Man Utd 1 Tottenham 0.

So no, not really a myth.

Last season without Kane, Spurs had the following records:

Champion's League: W1 D1 L1

Premier League: W5 D3 L0

FA Cup: W2 D0 L0

League Cup W1 D0 L1

Overall: W11 D4 L2

They also lost to Man United last season 1-0 with Kane playing

This season he's only missed 4 games and they've W2 L2. Though he was rested in some of these games.

Spurs are a better team with Harry Kane playing. That's not debatable. However, the evidence of the last 18 months suggests they wouldn't be 'fucked' if he was injured. Their record last season without him was decent. Good enough to still be a Top 4 challenger.

[Crosby Nick]

We are playing really well at moment and look like one of the form teams in the league.

However, I don't think anyone with any certainty can say that top 4 from here looks comfortable. The same applies to United, Chelsea and Spurs by the way.

I expect it  to be a massive dog fight into the last few weeks of the season. I would;t be surprised if from 2nd to 5th was still open going into the last 2 or 3 games of the season.

Us and Chelsea have been the best of the rest in terms of form over the last 15 games. That’s arguably better than a good run of form, just a sign of a very decent team. Then again people think Chelsea are wobbling but they’ve racked up 33 points in that time.

I think the whole 2nd-5th race will go to the wire. Every side has had the odd little dip, lost or drawn a game or two they shouldn’t have but they’ve all been accumulating points at a decent rate over a prolonged period. I think we’ll be ok but fans of the other teams would probably say the same.

[AndreTheMidget]

Last season without Kane, Spurs had the following records:

Champion's League: W1 D1 L1

Premier League: W5 D3 L0

FA Cup: W2 D0 L0

League Cup W1 D0 L1

Overall: W11 D4 L2

They also lost to Man United last season 1-0 with Kane playing

This season he's only missed 4 games and they've W2 L2. Though he was rested in some of these games.

Spurs are a better team with Harry Kane playing. That's not debatable. However, the evidence of the last 18 months suggests they wouldn't be 'fucked' if he was injured. Their record last season without him was decent. Good enough to still be a Top 4 challenger.

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine in this thread?! Cheer up mate.

[TheShanklyGates]

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine in this thread?! Cheer up mate.

How dare he piss on your chips with his facts!

[AndreTheMidget]

How dare he piss on your chips with his facts!

Played 4 won 2 lost 2 this season is hardly pissing on my chips.

But for anyone upset. Tottenham are an astonishing side and will easily finish above us with or without Kane. Better?

[TheShanklyGates]

Played 4 won 2 lost 2 this season is hardly pissing on my chips.

But for anyone upset. Tottenham are an astonishing side and will easily finish above us with or without Kane. Better?

Nobody is saying that at all but you can't stick to your argument that they're 'fucked' without Kane when that is demonstrably untrue.

[AndreTheMidget]

I can say what I like. Tottenham are unlikely to finish above us anyway, if Kane is out for any length of time there is zero chance of it. Sorry, just my opinion.

[MerseysideBrum]

Would be nice to get top 4 boxed early so we can fully focus on the 2 cups

[TheShanklyGates]

I can say what I like. Tottenham are unlikely to finish above us anyway, if Kane is out for any length of time there is zero chance of it. Sorry, just my opinion.

Okay mate.

[MerseysideBrum]

Okay mate.

Finished above us every season since 13/14 and not sold anyone of note in that time. Not saying they'll finish above us but to disregard them is silly.

[Billy The Kid]

I can see it going all the way down to the final day to be honest

I think ourselves and Chelsea will battle it out for 2nd place

Spurs and the mancs will battle it out for 4th

Goal difference could well come into play too

[AndreTheMidget]

Not disregarding them, just have confidence in our team. Arsenal kept finishing above us and look whats happening now.

[Buck Pete]

I can say what I like.

[Djozer]

We are playing really well at moment and look like one of the form teams in the league.

However, I don't think anyone with any certainty can say that top 4 from here looks comfortable. The same applies to United, Chelsea and Spurs by the way.

I expect it  to be a massive dog fight into the last few weeks of the season. I would;t be surprised if from 2nd to 5th was still open going into the last 2 or 3 games of the season.

Amen to that. There should be no chicken counting just yet, this is still way too close for any of that. Yeah, we could quite easily finish 2nd, but we could just as easily finish 5th, and even 6th is still not completely out of the question. I hope and trust that Klopp and the lads aren't getting as cocky as some in here as that could lead to complacency, which is the last thing we need.

The last few results have been great - hard fought ground out wins, the type you need if you're going to be a successful team but if I've learnt anything over the last few years following Liverpool, it is that we have an impressive ability to follow great results against top teams with mediocre results against shite teams. Hopefully we keep the concentration levels up against the swans.

We should certainly be aiming for 2nd now, with an eye higher just in case City slip up but, to be honest, if you offered me 4th right now I'd probably take it. Utd, Chelsea and Spurs are all very tough opposition for those three places, and it'll be an interesting run in.

[wige]

I can say what I like. Tottenham are unlikely to finish above us anyway, if Kane is out for any length of time there is zero chance of it. Sorry, just my opinion.

Not without losing all respect for what you're saying when it's proven untrue.

Forgot to actually comment!

Think yesterday was a massive win in terms of momentum for us, City, rightly or wrongly, took huge confidence from the win earlier in the season. There's no reason why we shouldn't do the same. Next up:

Swansea - A
West Brom - H
Huddersfield - A

I'm not sure you could pick many better fixtures to be honest. We need to put 3 wins on the table ahead of Spurs at Anfield. That's the game where we can go close to cementing our CL spot. Beat them, and we'll be 7 clear if pts gap doesn't change in the meantime.

We shouldn't really be looking over our shoulder if I'm honest. We have the quality to finish 2nd and we should be targetting that. I can't see City dropping enough points for it to get to the point where there's any real pressure on them in the run-in.

Anything above 4th demonstrates progress, 2nd would be a huge statement of intent, as it will when we win number 6 - I'm not really joking here, we have a brilliant chance.

[conman]

I can say what I like. Tottenham are unlikely to finish above us anyway, if Kane is out for any length of time there is zero chance of it. Sorry, just my opinion.

What supports your argument is that Deli Alli has been way off form this year, so there is more reliance on Kane to produce the goals and Kane has been banging them at a higher rate than last year.

2017/18 league goals after 23 games

Kane: 20
Son: 8
Eriksen: 6
Ali: 5

2016/17 (full year)

Kane: 29
Ali: 18
Son: 14
Eriksen: 8

If we forecast this years goal scoring tallies to the year end, based on current totals, we would see the following:

2017/18 Forecasted league goals

Kane: 33 (+14%)
Son: 13 (-7%)
Eriksen: 10 (+25%)
Ali: 8 (-56%)

So Tottenham are more reliant on Kane this year, than last year. Does that mean that they will perform worse without him? You would certainly think so, as they'd need to find a new means of scoring. The small sample of games this season resulted in 2 wins and 2 losses, 50% win rate, or 1.5ppg. This is not top 4 form.

Spurs are a very good team though, If they had a greater squad depth; i'd say they should be nailed on for top 3 each year.

[Jookie]

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine in this thread?! Cheer up mate.

Rather than act the tit when I basically showed the evidence of Spurs performance without Kane, why don't you articulate the reasons you think Spurs would be 'fucked' without Kane.

Personally I think there's very little between us, Spurs, Chelsea and United. each have their own strengths and weaknesses. In essence there are 4 very, very good team in the league coupled with City who are a level above that. This season the loss of a key player between now and May could be difference between finishing 2nd and 5th. That key play could be Kane. It could be Hazard. It could be Pogba. It could be Roberto Firmino.

None of those teams would be 'fucked' losing a key player. But if it stays as tight as it has so far then 1 key injury, and how you deal with it, could be the difference that decides if you come Top4 or not.

[RedKenWah]

our real tests aren't so much up against the top 4/6/8 as per say, but against the sides that will sit two banks of four and have zero ambition of attacking us and how we deal with them.

They're the sides that 9 times out of 10 we struggle to break down, and this will be tested further with the loss of Coutinho.

I'd actually be more up for playing against the likes of Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea etc... than say WBA, West Ham, Everton etc... For me, that's where our true challenge lies and will dictate whether we make it into the top 4 or not... We don't come across many teams that will try and outplay us or be so open, Man City were to my mind the first team to have come to Anfield and try and have a real go at us, press us and make life difficult for us, and in some ways it worked for periods of the game.

[wige]

our real tests aren't so much up against the top 4/6/8 as per say, but against the sides that will sit two banks of four and have zero ambition of attacking us and how we deal with them.

They're the sides that 9 times out of 10 we struggle to break down, and this will be tested further with the loss of Coutinho.

I'd actually be more up for playing against the likes of Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea etc... than say WBA, West Ham, Everton etc... For me, that's where our true challenge lies and will dictate whether we make it into the top 4 or not... We don't come across many teams that will try and outplay us or be so open, Man City were to my mind the first team to have come to Anfield and try and have a real go at us, press us and make life difficult for us, and in some ways it worked for periods of the game.

Honestly think Van Dijk gives us a huge chance to make these games easier. Excellent dead ball delivery from Ox, and a huge aerial threat now.

[AndreTheMidget]

Rather than act the tit when I basically showed the evidence of Spurs performance without Kane, why don't you articulate the reasons you think Spurs would be 'fucked' without Kane.

No need to get abusive. It's not really that radical, I think we are a boss football team, slightly better than them and if they lost a key player in to the mix then they have very little chance of finishing above us. I meant they are fucked in relation to finishing above us, not that they'll never ever win a football match again like you seem to think. Please note, I also said I feared for us a little bit if we lost a key player.

Sorry that seems to have offended you so badly. You can go back to being miserable now.

[Jookie]

So Tottenham are more reliant on Kane this year, than last year. Does that mean that they will perform worse without him? You would certainly think so, as they'd need to find a new means of scoring.

Nice analysis.

The one difference between this season and last season for Spurs is the replacement they can bring in if Kane is injured.

Llorente is likely to perform significantly better Jansenn did. Is that enough to cover a hypothetical Kane absence and the drop off in Ali's goalscoring? Who knows. It's just another factor to consider.

That's where we need to be careful. If Firmino, Salah and Mane can play the vast majority of games until the end of the season then who knows what we can achieve? 2nd and a CL win wouldn't be out of the question. My big concern is how we rotate or replace Firmino in our starting line up. He's so pivotal to how we play and the drop off to Solanke/Sturridge/Ings is now significant. Maybe Sturridge with a run of games could fill the gap. I'm not sure Ings or Solanke could at the moment.

[Shaved Crossbar]

Next up:

Swansea - A
West Brom - H
Huddersfield - A

I'm not sure you could pick many better fixtures to be honest. We need to put 3 wins on the table ahead of Spurs at Anfield. That's the game where we can go close to cementing our CL spot. Beat them, and we'll be 7 clear if pts gap doesn't change in the meantime.

Spurs have Soton away, before a cup tie away at Newport (our West brom game is a cup tie too). Following Newport though, they have, in 14 days: United at home, us away, Arsenal at home, and Juve away.

The gap is 4 now. If we win our two aways and then Spurs, and they lose to us and draw one of their two home games against the big 6, it'll be 9. If they drop points at Soton then their top four chase is looking very prekarius.

[Djozer]

Honestly think Van Dijk gives us a huge chance to make these games easier. Excellent dead ball delivery from Ox, and a huge aerial threat now.

True. We've been better at set pieces (at both ends) this season than we have for a while now, or it's seemed that way to me, and Van Dijk should take us to another level in that respect. It should  certainly be another string in our bow.

Still, I do worry a bit at how.we'll fix be against the bus parkers without Coutinho. Even with him we've struggled at times, but he definitely helps. The next couple.of games against Swansea and West Brom should be very instructive in this regard, as we should see how a midfield whose main creative presence is Lallana or AOC will fare. As per, I'm sure if we get an early goal we'll be fine, but I think getting that initial breakthrough might be harder. Hopefully I'm wrong of course.

[wige]

My big concern is how we rotate or replace Firmino in our starting line up. He's so pivotal to how we play and the drop off to Solanke/Sturridge/Ings is now significant. Maybe Sturridge with a run of games could fill the gap. I'm not sure Ings or Solanke could at the moment.

Left field shout, and I'm not convinced myself, but how about (a fit) Lallana?

Has the intelligence, awareness and touch, the eye for a pass as well. His strength and ability to threaten in behind that worries me (along with whether it's just a terrible, terrible shout!)

Just think if it was a must win game, CL semi or something, and Firmino/Sturridge weren't available, that Klopp probably doesn't start Ings or Solanke, rather, looks to use his best players differently.