Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[killer-heels]

Because of the Government defeat on the "meaningful vote" before Christmas. The Labour Eurosceptic rebels didn't come out in full force then though and considering "divergence" is a necessary part of being able to "take back control", I doubt they won't this time too.

The MP’s dont have it in them to vote against the deal. Labour will just believe they can change anything once they are in power and for the Tories this is the biggest chance to make this crappy island the Tory heaven they have been craving.

[oldfordie]

Andrew Gwynne confirms that Labour not only wants to have its cake and eat it on the single market, but on the customs union too (wanting to be able to negotiate its own trade deals)

https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/966281562617606145

What is it now. 20 months since the referendum and were still listening to s,, like this.
Absolutely no clue on how the customs union works or what it covers. no understanding of the EUs position on protecting the integrity of the Single Market.
This is basic stuff and it should be easy enough to understand why the EU can't allow us to sign our own trade deals.
We get a deal that allows us to import materials from outside the EU far cheaper than the EU then we can produce goods far cheaper than the EU, we can then export those goods into the EU and undercut EU companies, EU companies go bust and thousands+ workers are put on the dole. it's called EU protectionism. something that's propped up the British worker for years. it will be missed badly when we leave the EU.

[ShakaHislop]

"Ambitious managed divergence" Catchy

Also

Taking questions after a speech in London, he also said Labour would rather have a general election than a second referendum on Britain's EU membership because "there needs to be a wider debate" about the UK's future relationship with Europe.

Pro Brexit Tories or pro Brexit Labour. Ooh, what a wide and diverse debate!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43136076

[ShakaHislop]

Britain cannot stay in the single market, John McDonnell insists

Dismissing polls which have shown that an overwhelming majority of Labour members and supporters support Britain remaining in the customs union and single market after leaving the EU, Mr McDonnell insisted wider polling showed there had been no change in public opinion.

Leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to give a speech on Monday setting out Labour's approach to Brexit following criticism that its position is unclear. Mr Corbyn has previously stuck to his insistence he is focused on delivering a "jobs-first Brexit".

Mr McDonnell insisted the party respected the result of the referendum.

Asked why Britain cannot remain in the single market, he said: "I think many people who voted for Leave and others may not feel that is respecting the result itself because we have to adopt all of the four freedoms.

"We think we can develop a new relationship with Europe which overcomes many of those perceived dis-benefits and that is why we think we can get as close to the single market as we can and gain the benefits of that single market."

Mr McDonnell said Labour wanted the creation of "a" new customs union, but not "the" customs unions.

He said: "We are not supporting membership of the customs union but we are looking at a customs union.

"The reason we are saying a customs union is because we don't want the same asymmetric relationship that Turkey have got.

"What we would want is to negotiate around our ability to influence the trade negotiations that would take place on behalf of us all, both ourselves and other European countries in terms of trade via a customs union."

Mr McDonnell said he would "rather have a general election" than a second referendum.

"There needs to be a wider debate about the future of the country setting our future relationship with Europe in that context.

"That's why I would prefer a general election, but we are keeping all options open."

Mr McDonnell said all the analysis of polling the party had been doing on whether voters wanted another referendum showed "there hasn't been a shift".

"It's virtually 50/50 at the moment," he said.

"From the analysis of all the poll of polls, there has been some shift but it is in both directions, so they have cancelled each other out."

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/single-market-john-mcdonnell-1-5405534?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons

What the fuck does that mean?

As for the polling on a 2nd referendum, maybe if you spent more time trying to convince the public of its merits rather than angling for another general election every 5 minutes, the polls might shift more decisively?

[Alan_X]

Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam

As I reported here on Tuesday “End of Recognition of UK Type Approvals - no mutual recognition” for UK-made cars - what was referred to by one car boss in PArliament as “semi-catastrophic” for production. Specifically floated by Davis in Vienna



“End of mutual recognition of driving licences”


End of freedom of movement, would obviously be reciprocal, the presentations stress:

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. We're going to need a load more bureaucrats and red tape once we leave if we want to keep trading with Europe.

[Red-Soldier]

Our politicians have really fucked us over this time!

[Nobby Reserve]

I note that, whilst immigration from the EU has reduced, immigration from outside the EU has increased.

Should we expect a new campaign for us to leave the 'non-EU'?

[Libertine]

I note that, whilst immigration from the EU has reduced, immigration from outside the EU has increased.

Should we expect a new campaign for us to leave the 'non-EU'?

It's almost like the UK had control of immigration all along, but chose not to drastically reduce it because it would hugely damage the economy.

The market has a way of sorting these things though - expect immigration to continue to fall significantly in coming years.

[oldfordie]

IMO. It's now looking certain that we will leave the EU in March 2019 without a deal. the Tory+Labour leaderships are determined to take us out of the EU regardless of the consequences.
We will get a transition deal for a year or 2. we will cave in to all EU rules and regulations including ECJ or similar to get this transition deal.
There is not enough time to reach agreement on our future relationship but I still expect us to know how we stand on the nitty gritty arrangements like trade and customs.
Looks like our politicians will have the excuse to argue we can continue the negotiations after we leave with the Tories and Labour leaderships telling us there future outside the EU will be marvelous.
Am just hoping the EU send our politicians packing telling them to come back when they want to talk seriously about accepting certain rules and regulations. let this come to a head while were still in the EU.
Labour will loose a few million votes after Corbyns speech on Monday. they are more concerned about winning over a few ignorant minority leave supporters votes than keeping their hard core remain supporters who make up 70% of Labour support.
Labour would be far better off if we had another referendum now, they will be hammered if the Brexit issue brings about another Election.
They believe Labour remain voters will have nobody to vote for except Labour so they will still turn out in force to vote Labour. I expect millions to either stop at home in disgust or vote for a pro EU candidate.

[stara]

Internal EU27 preparatory discussions on the framework for the future relationship:"Regulatory issues"
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slides_regulatory_issues.pdf

Slide six "UK red lines" ...

[oldfordie]

Jeremy C*nt has just given a TV interview, he says there are differences of opinion within the cabinet but we've all agreed upon one thing. we will get a deal for different sectors, for example we will get a deal that enables frictionless trading just for automobile parts and we will chose to allign with European regulations only for this sector.
 
The Torys are still saying they are going for a Cake and Eat it Brexit.
Am sure some people will think well lets be positive and see what happens, this s.. is aimed at you to keep you positive.

[rafathegaffa83]

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. We're going to need a load more bureaucrats and red tape once we leave if we want to keep trading with Europe.

Yep. This fact seems to have been lost on the Brexiteers. The cost to create extensive customs and border agencies alone will be massive

[rafathegaffa83]

It's almost like the UK had control of immigration all along, but chose not to drastically reduce it because it would hugely damage the economy.

The market has a way of sorting these things though - expect immigration to continue to fall significantly in coming years.

One of the most damning effects of this debacle is the evidence of how much the UK government has had control over but hasn't bothered to implement in favour of blaming Brussels

[Iska]

The Torys are still saying they are going for a Cake and Eat it Brexit.
Am sure some people will think well lets be positive and see what happens, this s.. is aimed at you to keep you positive.

I’m wondering whether the only thing that can actually change minds is if companies actually do start shutting down ‘because of brexit’.  Otherwise they only have to keep the plates spinning for thirteen more months and they’re over the line.

[killer-heels]

I’m wondering whether the only thing that can actually change minds is if companies actually do start shutting down ‘because of brexit’.  Otherwise they only have to keep the plates spinning for thirteen more months and they’re over the line.

That is exactly right. There is no leadership or strength in the cabinet, shadow cabinet and most of the MP’s in Parliament. They are pretty much crap.

So now we have to rely on leadership from corporations. Thats of course if they are not bribed to stay here. Great.

[oldfordie]

I’m wondering whether the only thing that can actually change minds is if companies actually do start shutting down ‘because of brexit’.  Otherwise they only have to keep the plates spinning for thirteen more months and they’re over the line.

Exactly. I am not sure whats being said behind closed doors in these cabinet meetings but theres certainly at least a nods as good as a wink culture going on.
They are all sat round thinking we have to tell the public something even if it's a load of s...   so what can we say to keep the pressure off and keep the publics confidence on Brexit. they all know if they can keep Brexit on track till March 2019 then it's a Fait Accompli. we are out of the EU.
At the moment I don't see anything or anyone being in the way of stopping this from happening either.

[Machae]

What is Brexit?


https://mobile.twitter.com/bbctwo/status/966996032453251072?s=12

[zero zero]

Dismissing polls which have shown that an overwhelming majority of Labour members and supporters support Britain remaining in the customs union and single market after leaving the EU, Mr McDonnell insisted wider polling showed there had been no change in public opinion.

At last. Absolute clarity about the Labour leadership's priorities.

Leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to give a speech on Monday setting out Labour's approach to Brexit following criticism that its position is unclear. Mr Corbyn has previously stuck to his insistence he is focused on delivering a "jobs-first Brexit".

Let's hope Corbyn will offer more than empty soundbites.

[Ray K]

Donald Tusk telling May to cop the fuck on

Theresa May’s plan for a post-Brexit trade deal has been immediately written off by the EU as “pure illusion” less than 24 hours after she convinced her ministers to back it at a special lock-in session of Cabinet intended to sort out the UK’s trade stance once and for all.

Speaking after an informal summit of EU27 leaders in Brussels, European Council President Donald Tusk said Britain still did not understand that it could not ‘have its cake and eat it’, warning that the EU would push ahead with its own plans if the UK did not produce something substantial.

Mr Tusk told reporters it would “be much better” if the UK had an idea of what it wanted ahead of next month’s meeting, but that “we cannot stand by and wait”. The public slap down comes after ministers backed a vague promise of “ambitious managed divergence” at a lock-in away day at the PM’s country residence Chequers.

He added: “I am glad that the UK government seems to be moving towards a more detailed position, however if the media reports are correct I am afraid that the UK position today is based on pure illusion.

“It looks like the [have your] ‘cake’ [and eat it] philosophy is still alive. From the very start it has been a key principle of the EU27 that there can be no cherry picking and no single market ŕ la carte. This will continue to be a key principle, I have no doubt.”

-Indy.

[zero zero]

“It looks like the [have your] ‘cake’ [and eat it] philosophy is still alive. From the very start it has been a key principle of the EU27 that there can be no cherry picking and no single market ŕ la carte. This will continue to be a key principle, I have no doubt.”

"We think we can develop a new relationship with Europe which overcomes many of those perceived dis-benefits and that is why we think we can get as close to the single market as we can and gain the benefits of that single market."

Hmmm.

[cloggypop]

Yep. This fact seems to have been lost on the Brexiteers. The cost to create extensive customs and border agencies alone will be massive

The Netherlands are already hiring 750 extra customs officers to cover it. The UK will need thousands but probably haven't bothered hiring yet.

[PaulF]

The Netherlands are already hiring 750 extra customs officers to cover it. The UK will need thousands but probably haven't bothered hiring yet.

Plenty of jobs for poor, hard working, white, not racist nor uneducated brits. Hoorah

[Currywurst]

The Netherlands are already hiring 750 extra customs officers to cover it. The UK will need thousands but probably haven't bothered hiring yet.

For which the Uk will be required to stump up in compensation.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

For which the Uk will be required to stump up in compensation.

and the Brexit meffs will blame this on brussels

[Alan_X]

At last. Absolute clarity about the Labour leadership's priorities.

"We will listen to our members..." unless we don't like the answer...

[zero zero]

"We will listen to our members..." unless we don't like the answer...

"For the Many, not the Few..." unless we're talking about our actual members and voters

[oldfordie]

The Netherlands are already hiring 750 extra customs officers to cover it. The UK will need thousands but probably haven't bothered hiring yet.

A lot of people are in for a nasty shock, Brexit will hit this country in ways we never imagined.
We may be entitled to sell certain goods if we are members of the customs union, we are still not entitled to FOM.
What will happen when our truck drivers arrive in France etc with a load.
They are transporting a truck full of goods, they are being paid to transport this truck= They are working. they want to work in the EU.

   " The customs union means free movement of our goods. It doesn’t mean free movement of our trucks.  Erman Ereke"


Turkey border gridlock hints at pain to come for Brexit Britain

   

   For a glimpse of what British trade into the EU might look like post-Brexit, take a drive to Turkey’s northern border with Bulgaria, one of the busiest land crossings in Europe.
On a recent Saturday at the Kapıkule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints. “Today is a good day,” said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours. “Last week the line was 7km long.” The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side.
Each driver clutches a sheaf of several dozen documents — an export declaration, a carnet from Turkish customs officers, invoices for the products they are hauling, insurance certificates and, when lucky, a transport permit for each EU nation they will drive through.

They face mounds of paperwork, hours of waiting, a scrabbling for scarce transport permits and random inspections, all before trucks can enter the borderless trading bloc.

   It is a bureaucratic load that negotiators say will be a “huge” point of contention in Brexit talks. The right of lorries to move freely is rarely granted by the bloc to its neighbours — and so far only on the condition of accepting the free movement of persons, something Britain is determined to avoid.
Even though Turkey is part of the coveted customs union, which means that these trucks won’t be paying any duties for the goods they haul, the total value of trade lost because of the delays, cost and hassle is estimated to be about €3bn, according to a 2015 study.
Such obstacles are a concern for the UK as it contemplates its divorce from the EU, especially if, as Theresa May, the prime minister, has said, it tries to negotiate some sort of associate membership of
the customs union.
In many ways, that relationship would be a rung lower than the arrangement that Turkey has. Turkey’s customs union agreement involved Ankara giving up its right to set its own external tariffs in trade deals — something Mrs May is loath to do.

   The biggest speed bump for Turkey is something that the UK could run into as well — transport permits for the 60,000 trucks Turkish operators want to send into the EU each year. For each country through which a Turkish truck needs to pass, the driver must hold a permit from that country’s ministry of transport or an equivalent body.
Those permits are usually limited by quota, and Turkish truckers say there are never enough. This Saturday, the shelf holding Austrian permits was bare — Turkey gets only 18,000 of them a year, and releases them on a bimonthly basis. An official at the border said Austrian permits had run out 18 days into the new year.
   So until March 1 truckers aiming for Germany, a key trade destination, must instead drive to Austria’s border with Slovenia, and pay €1,000 to put their trucks on a train that rumbles through the Austrian countryside before depositing the trucks on the German border. Fines for driving through Austria without a transport permit can reach thousands of euros.
“The customs union means free movement of our goods,” said Erman Ereke, a member of the executive committee of the Turkish International Transporters’ Association. “It doesn’t mean free movement of our trucks.
https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

[Trada]

Mike Holden #FBPE@MikeHolden42

Gove: "We are going to ban plastic straws but the DASTARDY EU may stop us!"


EU Vice President:

 Frans Timmermans‏Verified account @TimmermansEU

@michaelgove One step ahead of you. EU legislation on single-use plastics coming before the summer. Maybe you can align with us? #EUDoesntSuck #StrongerTogether #PlasticsStrategy

[oldfordie]

Mike Holden #FBPE@MikeHolden42

Gove: "We are going to ban plastic straws but the DASTARDY EU may stop us!"


EU Vice President:

 Frans Timmermans‏Verified account @TimmermansEU

@michaelgove One step ahead of you. EU legislation on single-use plastics coming before the summer. Maybe you can align with us? #EUDoesntSuck #StrongerTogether #PlasticsStrategy

Wonder he didn't say the EU are trying to ban bendy straws.

[PaulF]

Will they have to change eurostar drivers when they cross the channel?

[Iska]

Driverless vehicles will make brexit a breeze.

[Trada]

I like the fact the Tory media are in a tailspin just because Labour are restating what is in the Manifesto, Labour playing a blinder again.

And you would think some kind of Custom union would be one thing that the EU would agree with in the end because it will save the good Friday agreement.

[Red-Soldier]

I like the fact the Tory media are in a tailspin just because Labour are restating what is in the Manifesto, Labour playing a blinder again.

And you would think some kind of Custom union would be one thing that the EU would agree with in the end because it will save the good Friday agreement.

Yeah 

[TheShanklyGates]

Yeah 

He'd believe the sky was yellow if 'Jeremy' told him it was.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

He'd believe the sky was yellow if 'Jeremy' told him it was.

well he believes ‘Jeremy’ campaigned against brexit, not piss off on holiday during campaigning.

He’s probably tweeting that laughable #PCPEU hashtag which is a good indicator of a persons intelligence on twitter right now

[killer-heels]

Its a good shift today though. Lets not forget that recently people like Barry Gardiner were saying lets leave the customs union.

If anything this is more of a softer stance to Brexit than during the election. I know the polls are published alot on here so will be interesting to see what the effect is of this shift.

I know everyone is cynical, but its at least going in the right direction. Of all the things I dont want us to be able to do after Brexit is to strike our own trade deals.

[ShakaHislop]

Its a good shift today though. Lets not forget that recently people like Barry Gardiner were saying lets leave the customs union.

If anything this is more of a softer stance to Brexit than during the election. I know the polls are published alot on here so will be interesting to see what the effect is of this shift.

I know everyone is cynical, but its at least going in the right direction. Of all the things I dont want us to be able to do after Brexit is to strike our own trade deals.

There's been no shift. Labour has been open to some form of customs union since last summer. It also wants to have its cake and eat it, as both Andrew Gwynne and Shami Chakrabarti have suggested in recent days it may be possible for the UK to make its own trade deals while in "a" customs union, that Labour presumably wants to be identical to "the customs union.

Chakrabarti, Starmer and McDonnell have also said they want the UK to retain influence over the common standards of "the"/"a" customs union, and the trade deals the EU negotiates after the UK is no longer a member.

Overall, Labour still taking the piss like the Tories.

Chakrabarti interview, including a bizarre Archbishop of Canterbury mention when under pressure
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqIX05rg9tM

[killer-heels]

There's been no shift. Labour has been open to some form of customs union since last summer. It also wants to have its cake and eat it, as both Andrew Gwynne and Shami Chakrabarti have suggested in recent days it may be possible for the UK to make its own trade deals while in "a" customs union, that Labour presumably wants to be identical to "the customs union.

Chakrabarti, Starmer and McDonnell have also said they want the UK to retain influence over the common standards of "the"/"a" customs union, and the trade deals the EU negotiates after the UK is no longer a member.

Overall, Labour still taking the piss like the Tories.

Chakrabarti interview, including a bizarre Archbishop of Canterbury mention when under pressure
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqIX05rg9tM

The Guardian article I read stated that Labour would be happy for the EU to strike trade negotiations on its behalf but we would need some input, which is what Starmer said yeterday on Marr.

That sounds to me very much like a fudge. We stay in and all the comms around it makes it appear to have a bigger say than we do.

[ShakaHislop]

The Guardian article I read stated that Labour would be happy for the EU to strike trade negotiations on its behalf but we would need some input, which is what Starmer said yeterday on Marr.

That sounds to me very much like a fudge. We stay in and all the comms around it makes it appear to have a bigger say than we do.

What does "input" mean though? Voting rights? Anything less than that would be a step down from the current arrangements (and surely that would be obvious to everyone, no matter how much you try to spin it), and certainly not in the spirit of "taking back control"

The EU has been clear that we could choose to be a part of the single market after Brexit but that we'd have to accept the rules with no say. I can't see it taking a different approach to the customs union/trade policy, which is what Labour is asking for.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Busting the Lexit myths

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/in/pages/14074/attachments/original/1517224151/lexit_paper_finalONLINE.pdf?1517224151