Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Red Beret]

Sunak today claiming he's been "very clear" about the timing of the GE - as in, any time between now and the end of the year.

If this fool genuinely thinks that some vague uptick in the economy over the next 8 months might save his party a dozen seats at the GE, then I have a bridge to sell him. And if the Tories think that ousting him after the Locals will improve their chances, I've got the same bridge for them as well.

I'm just really really really hoping that they are so destroyed on Friday that Sunak just gives the fuck up and calls an election for June or July in the hopes people will go on their holidays and not be arsed with a postal vote. It's beyond embarrassing at this point.

[west_london_red]

I don’t think it’s a case of waiting 8 months for an economic uptick, I thinks it’s case of waiting 8 months for anything, sending a few people to Rwanda, some dirt on Starmer, anything will do. The issue for the Tories of course is that the boats will still keep coming and if anyone is likely to be found with dirt it’s more likely to be a Tory than anyone else in politics.

[Red Beret]

I don’t think it’s a case of waiting 8 months for an economic uptick, I thinks it’s case of waiting 8 months for anything, sending a few people to Rwanda, some dirt on Starmer, anything will do. The issue for the Tories of course is that the boats will still keep coming and if anyone is likely to be found with dirt it’s more likely to be a Tory than anyone else in politics.

That's kind of my point. I know the average Tory politician is somewhat divorced from reality, Sunak even more so. But you would think that even the most brain dead amongst them would have realised that if it hasn't happened by now, it ain't happening. If anything, it's likely to only get worse for them the longer they leave it.

They're expecting to lose half their council seats by Friday, and there are Mayoral elections in play. If it's as bad or worse than they're expecting, you would think they would just give it up. Changing the leader isn't going to do anything at this point. I don't expect them to have any dignity, but there isn't even any bad sense behind this anymore. Stalling is only going to harden voters' resolve against them.

[LuverlyRita]

Stalling is only going to harden voters' resolve against them.

They already know that the game is up. Delaying gives them more time to line their pockets and create some extra havoc for Labour to sort.

[Red Beret]

They already know that the game is up. Delaying gives them more time to line their pockets and create some extra havoc for Labour to sort.

Well according to the Guardian article I just shared in the Tory thread, the UK has £2.7 trillion in debt - 98% of the country's GDP.

They're literally on the cusp of crashing the entire UK economy. You'd think they'd rather get out now and let it crash under Labour.

[west_london_red]

Well according to the Guardian article I just shared in the Tory thread, the UK has £2.7 trillion in debt - 98% of the country's GDP.

They're literally on the cusp of crashing the entire UK economy. You'd think they'd rather get out now and let it crash under Labour.

No offence but I’ve been saying that for ages, for all their talk of fixing the roof while the sun was shining they have presided over a doubling of the national debt, and we’re still borrowing circa £100 billion a year, people wonder why the country is fucked… I’ll give you another statistic, the government spends about 10% of its revenue (that’s about £100 billion of the £1000 billion it spends) on interest on the £2,700 billion it owes (most of that borrowed during the last 14 years), that’s why taxes are higher than they have ever been but public services so shit, we’re spending a higher proportion then we have in a long time on interest.

[red_Mark1980]

There's something in my head that if the Tories don't do as bad as expected the half pint minister may pull the trigger on a GE. Unless he seriously expects this Rwanda plane to win back the "red wall"

[Red Beret]

No offence but I’ve been saying that for ages, for all their talk of fixing the roof while the sun was shining they have presided over a doubling of the national debt, and we’re still borrowing circa £100 billion a year, people wonder why the country is fucked… I’ll give you another statistic, the government spends about 10% of its revenue (that’s about £100 billion of the £1000 billion it spends) on interest on the £2,700 billion it owes (most of that borrowed during the last 14 years), that’s why taxes are higher than they have ever been but public services so shit, we’re spending a higher proportion then we have in a long time on interest.

And it's why Labour can't afford to buy back the railway rolling stock when they eventually get around to renationalising the railways. When it comes to a nation's finances, people might not think £15bn or however much it might cost is a lot of money in the great scheme of things. But when your country owes £2.7 trillion fucking quid then it's clear there's absolutely no wiggle room in the short to medium term. Everything has to be revenue neutral and carefully costed.

The only way out of this is to find a way to grow the economy and pay down some of the debt. The Tories - once again - have fucked an entire generation.

[Red Beret]

There's something in my head that if the Tories don't do as bad as expected the half pint minister may pull the trigger on a GE. Unless he seriously expects this Rwanda plane to win back the "red wall"

It depends on what qualifies as "not as bad as they expected". Think they have something like 1,000 councillors up for re-election, and most observers anticipate them losing around half of those. I'm not sure only losing 300 will be much to cheer them up.

I think they're really just out to spite the nation at this point. I don't even think it's about milking the finances to the last drop, or fucking things up even more for Labour. I don't think it's physically possible to fuck the economy up anymore than it already is without actually bankrupting the country.

Common sense would have you think they would want to be put out of their misery at this point. But as usual their ideology - let's face it, dogma - won't countenance it. They are the party of government, and they can't conceive of going from a majority of 80 odd seats to potentially double digit MPs after the next GE. How dare the people do that to them, after all the Tories have done for them?

It's sheer fucking ego at this point. Nothing more than wounded pride and bloody minded stubbornness. And likely most of the backbenchers scrabbling around trying to find another job, because "being part of the government that crashed the UK economy" doesn't exactly look good on a CV.

The last Electoral Calculus poll was released on March 29th, which was showing them with 90 seats at the GE. We should see another one out before Thursday. Let's see how bad it is. They could count themselves lucky if there's no change.

[Shankly998]

Sunak today claiming he's been "very clear" about the timing of the GE - as in, any time between now and the end of the year.

If this fool genuinely thinks that some vague uptick in the economy over the next 8 months might save his party a dozen seats at the GE, then I have a bridge to sell him. And if the Tories think that ousting him after the Locals will improve their chances, I've got the same bridge for them as well.

I'm just really really really hoping that they are so destroyed on Friday that Sunak just gives the fuck up and calls an election for June or July in the hopes people will go on their holidays and not be arsed with a postal vote. It's beyond embarrassing at this point.

They know they're done they just want to milk some more £££ before they're shown the door

[Red Beret]

They know they're done they just want to milk some more £££ before they're shown the door

There's nothing left to milk. Look at the articles. UK debt is 98% of the country's GDP. We're running on financial fumes. If the country is going to go bankrupt, better it happen under Labour in their minds.

[thaddeus]

There's nothing left to milk. Look at the articles. UK debt is 98% of the country's GDP. We're running on financial fumes. If the country is going to go bankrupt, better it happen under Labour in their minds.

I thought it was already a little over 100%.  We're not unusual though and our debt as a proportion of GDP is still below France, Spain, Italy, the US and way below Japan.

There's still plenty more looting to be done and traps to be placed for the next government.  There'll definitely be one more autumn statement so that Hunt can lower taxes to an unsustainable level that Reeves will immediately need to reverse and therefore get off on a bad footing.

[killer-heels]

You have to remember that whilst the polls are bad for them and a lot of MP's predict oblivion, there are a lot that still are deluded enough to think that come the day, their voters will still turn out and it wont be as bad.

You have to remember that Downing Street is full of deluded people and deluded advisors. I hate the whole Westminster bubble tag but if there is then its usually the advisors and crew that populate Downing Street. They will still be thinking that something pops up or a message or poster or something will get through to the British public and that will turn it for them.

On top of that you have to remember that this is a great opportunity for them, their career has been geared to getting to this moment. They dont want to give that up until the bitter end.

[gazzalfc]

Yougov Poll

West Midlands Mayoral Election
Andy Street, Conservative 41%
Richard Parker, Labour 39%
Elaine Williams, Reform UK 9%
Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green 6%
Akhmed Yakoob, Independent 3%
Sunny Virk, Liberal Democrat 2%
YouGov say this makes it too close to call

[gazzalfc]

Tees Valley Mayoral Election
Ben Houchen, Conservative 51%
Chris McEwan, Labour 44%
Simon Thorley, Liberal Democrat 5%
YouGov say Houchen only ahead by slimmest margin

[thaddeus]

Yougov Poll

West Midlands Mayoral Election
Andy Street, Conservative 41%
Richard Parker, Labour 39%
Elaine Williams, Reform UK 9%
Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green 6%
Akhmed Yakoob, Independent 3%
Sunny Virk, Liberal Democrat 2%
YouGov say this makes it too close to call

I'd have thought that the Labour-ran Birmingham City council going bankrupt would have put their mayoral candidate well and truly out of the running.  I guess the general Tory incompetence and sleaze has evened it out.

[Red Beret]

I thought it was already a little over 100%.  We're not unusual though and our debt as a proportion of GDP is still below France, Spain, Italy, the US and way below Japan.

There's still plenty more looting to be done and traps to be placed for the next government.  There'll definitely be one more autumn statement so that Hunt can lower taxes to an unsustainable level that Reeves will immediately need to reverse and therefore get off on a bad footing.

I'd say that EU countries are better placed to recover from such situations than we are, and of course the US is its own thing. Surprised about Japan, but at least they have a solid manufacturing base to fall back on.

You have to remember that whilst the polls are bad for them and a lot of MP's predict oblivion, there are a lot that still are deluded enough to think that come the day, their voters will still turn out and it wont be as bad.

You have to remember that Downing Street is full of deluded people and deluded advisors. I hate the whole Westminster bubble tag but if there is then its usually the advisors and crew that populate Downing Street. They will still be thinking that something pops up or a message or poster or something will get through to the British public and that will turn it for them.

On top of that you have to remember that this is a great opportunity for them, their career has been geared to getting to this moment. They dont want to give that up until the bitter end.

I don't disagree with you, but with 60 odd Tories "retiring" at the next election I'd say some form of reality has at least partly pierced the Tory delusion.

[west_london_red]

I'd say that EU countries are better placed to recover from such situations than we are, and of course the US is its own thing. Surprised about Japan, but at least they have a solid manufacturing base to fall back on.

Japan is one of the most indebted countries in the world, but their situation is slightly different in that a lot of that debt is owned by Japanese banks and investors so they have more control over it then most other countries where the debt is owned by foreign banks and institutions. And yes the EU countries benefit from having the Euro and sharing the currency risk across so many countries.

[PaulF]

I thought it was already a little over 100%.  We're not unusual though and our debt as a proportion of GDP is still below France, Spain, Italy, the US and way below Japan.

There's still plenty more looting to be done and traps to be placed for the next government.  There'll definitely be one more autumn statement so that Hunt can lower taxes to an unsustainable level that Reeves will immediately need to reverse and therefore get off on a bad footing.

Surely they don't risk sending the markets into another tail spin though?

[Wabaloolah]

Surely they don't risk sending the markets into another tail spin though?

do they give a fuck?

[PaulF]

do they give a fuck?

If it's going to wipe millions of their mates' shares?

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

If it's going to wipe millions of their mates' shares?

Its alright, they will have been told to shorten

[west_london_red]

Fucking hell:

https://news.sky.com/story/monty-panesar-ex-england-cricketer-standing-to-become-mp-for-george-galloways-party-13126329

Ex England Cricketer to stand for Gorgeous George’s party in Southall


It’s a shrewd move by them, a lot of Muslims in the area who will vote for the party because of Galloways shameless exploitation of Palestine, and there’s a lot of Sikhs in the area that Panesar can tap into.

If you fancy a laugh take a look at his performance on Mastermind

https://twitter.com/shornKOOMINS/status/1785262819975270808?t=QsD_ievmr0SKoVRZN8Msmg&s=08

[TepidT2O]

Fucking hell:

https://news.sky.com/story/monty-panesar-ex-england-cricketer-standing-to-become-mp-for-george-galloways-party-13126329

Ex England Cricketer to stand for Gorgeous George’s party in Southall

Last seen pissing on a bouncer’s leg.  Panesar has had a terrible time with substance abuse and mental health problems.

[thaddeus]

Last seen pissing on a bouncer’s leg.  Panesar has had a terrible time with substance abuse and mental health problems.

Panesar is a grown man so can make his own decisions but it feels like Galloway is taking advantage of a person that is not in a fit state of mind.  I'd be surprised if Panesar sticks it out until the election.

[Elmo!]

Former UK diplomat, conspiracy theorist and all round loony Craig Murray, already a member of Alba in Scotland, is apparently the latest to join Galloways party and stand as a candidate. This is the guy who got send to prison for publishing details of Alex Salmond's alleged victims leading to them being identified.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/24228187.former-ambassador-craig-murray-returns-contest-blackburn/

[Jiminy Cricket]

Former UK diplomat, conspiracy theorist and all round loony Craig Murray, already a member of Alba in Scotland, is apparently the latest to join Galloways party and stand as a candidate. This is the guy who got send to prison for publishing details of Alex Salmond's alleged victims leading to them being identified.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/24228187.former-ambassador-craig-murray-returns-contest-blackburn/

He seems nice. He'll feel right at home with Galloway.

[Red Beret]

Panesar is a grown man so can make his own decisions but it feels like Galloway is taking advantage of a person that is not in a fit state of mind.  I'd be surprised if Panesar sticks it out until the election.

Getting Herschel Walker vibes from this...

[Red Beret]

New Electoral Calculus poll has been released. I honestly didn't think it could get much worse for the Tories prior to the Locals. I was wrong.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

[Wabaloolah]

The low of 30 seats would be amazing!

Think that's the first time I've seen one of these where Labour are 100% to be the largest party

98% majority
2% minority

[TepidT2O]

I don’t think anyone seriously thinks even their best case scenario will actually happen, and that they will end up with over 150 seats.

But it’s not impossible, and that’s why it’s funny.

[Libertine]

Interesting.

That's a fairly modest Reform prediction % as well, compared to many polls. So while they will inevitably claw some of that back at a GE, there's probably not a huge % to gain.

Also a very modest Lib Dem vote % translating into a very healthy 50 seats - indicates very good targeting by them and plenty of tactical voting by the anti-Tory alliance.

[TheShanklyGates]

The Lib Dems becoming the official opposition despite coming 4th with less than half the Tory vote share would be hilarious. A democratic travesty, but hilarious.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

We are in the territory where a huge proportion want an election, want change. So the longer they appear to hold on for no good reason, other than to salt the earth, then support drops ever more. Even when that Smint sized shister eventually calls an election, the timing will be used as another stick to beat them with. They really have nowhere to turn to but oblivion.

[Red Beret]

I've followed the EC polls this year and watched the predicted number of Tory seats dwindle from 123 to 113 to 90 and now to 85. Six months ago, 85 would have been at the low/worst end of most predictions, but now it's the middle case scenario.

I don't want to be complacent, or hope too much; but it's getting to the point that if the Tories gain 150 seats I'll feel disappointed.

I'm thinking they might bottom out at around 70 seats for the middle case scenario, then recover slightly during the campaign. As things stand, We would probably see them finishing on around 100-110 seats.

[red_Mark1980]

If the Tories get less than 100 seats I'll be flabbergasted.

[TepidT2O]

If the Tories get less than 100 seats I'll be flabbergasted.paralytic

Just corrected that for you

[red_Mark1980]

Just corrected that for you

It's just not happening.. they won 165 under Major in 1997.

[Red Beret]

Just corrected that for you

Drinking game for election night - every time time the Tories lose a seat, take a shot.

[Elmo!]

Drinking game for election night - every time time the Tories lose a seat, take a shot.

Is this the Tories long term strategy? Do so bad, all your opponents supported drink themselves to death in celebration, paving the way for a comeback in 5 years.