Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[BobOnATank]

Parliament has control of the decision so a new tory PM really only puts a bigger idiot (Johnson, Raab, one of the many others) in the driving seat of failure. So while the tories might go all out for the unicorn "no deal" nonsense it won't change parliament so nothing changes. A GE would change that but the tories won't dare do it, the new leader will want their time in the hot seat as well never mind their polling numbers.

Either its a second referendum or tories form an alliance with the devil (frottage) and the UK ends up with its trump moment. If its the later I'd say the EU will make the decision for them, chuck the Uk out and then sit back for the demands for negotiation to ease issues then they'll sign up to the 39bn and the backstop.

[Zeb]

Brexit: Stephen Barclay says PM's deal is 'dead' if bill fails

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48286543

Suspect agreeing with Barclay on anything is my late shift to the right in old age.

"in that form" is an interesting qualifier - switch back to the NI only backstop? - but it's still going to need a new session of Parliament (I think - check nearest procedural expert) to do and that will require winning the vote on the Queen's speech without the DUP and have even less chance of passing through Parliament. Whole reason that May has let this session go on for so long is that she's not sure of winning that vote even with the DUP. But what is dead may never die...

[Trada]

I was reading there seems to be something dodgy going on with the Brexit party Frottage said that within days they have had 100,000 people sign up and pay £25 to become registered supporters on their website.

But when people have checked out the Websites data they have had, nowhere near  that amount of visitors to the site one day just 1,500 people.

Won't surprise me if some dodgy money isnt being paid in hopely it will be checked out properly. just to make sure.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

I was reading there seems to be something dodgy going on with the Brexit party Frottage said that within days they have had 100,000 people sign up and pay £25 to become registered supporters on their website.

But when people have checked out the Websites data they have had, nowhere near  that amount of visitors to the site one day just 1,500 people.

Won't surprise me if some dodgy money isnt being paid in hopely it will be checked out properly. just to make sure.

Yeah cos that'll happen mate.

[Riquende]

But when people have checked out the Websites data they have had, nowhere near  that amount of visitors to the site one day just 1,500 people.

I imagine the core demographic of the Brexit party don't use the web much and have been sending cheques.

[Riquende]

Either its a second referendum or tories form an alliance with the devil (frottage) and the UK ends up with its trump moment.

Nah. What's far more likely (chillingly so) is that we end up in a similar situation to Italy with Salvini now:

- Government collapses over failure to do a deal/leave/revoke
- Tories appoint some non-entity like Raab or Leadsom as leader
- GE returns a Tory/Brexit coalition (Frottage as an MP with ~ 20 Brexit MPs)
- Nige appointed deputy PM and immediately becomes the media-friendly rentaquote 'face' of the Government over the inept Tory PM
- Tories are unable to sanction/control him as they rely on his support in parliament and he's not a member so doesn't fear the '22, 'men in grey suits' etc

Weirdly, the only person able to stop us going down this route might be Boris, as he's unquestionably got a higher public profile than Frottage.

[Jiminy Cricket]

I was reading there seems to be something dodgy going on with the Brexit party Frottage said that within days they have had 100,000 people sign up and pay £25 to become registered supporters on their website.

But when people have checked out the Websites data they have had, nowhere near  that amount of visitors to the site one day just 1,500 people.

Won't surprise me if some dodgy money isnt being paid in hopely it will be checked out properly. just to make sure.

You repeat some crap, Jizza. Unless someone from webhost (cloudflare.com) has leaked the information (highly unlikely), the only people with access to that kind of data are the operators of the website itself.

[Trada]

You repeat some crap, Jizza. Unless someone from webhost (cloudflare.com) has leaked the information (highly unlikely), the only people with access to that kind of data are the operators of the website itself.

We will see.

Within minutes I found this and I havent got a clue what I doing you can get very detailed data.

[ShakaHislop]

Nah. What's far more likely (chillingly so) is that we end up in a similar situation to Italy with Salvini now:

- Government collapses over failure to do a deal/leave/revoke
- Tories appoint some non-entity like Raab or Leadsom as leader
- GE returns a Tory/Brexit coalition (Frottage as an MP with ~ 20 Brexit MPs)
- Nige appointed deputy PM and immediately becomes the media-friendly rentaquote 'face' of the Government over the inept Tory PM
- Tories are unable to sanction/control him as they rely on his support in parliament and he's not a member so doesn't fear the '22, 'men in grey suits' etc

Weirdly, the only person able to stop us going down this route might be Boris, as he's unquestionably got a higher public profile than Frottage.

Even if (and that's a big if - see how few MPs UKIP picked up in 2015 after their 2014 European election win) Frottage/the Brexit Party were in a position to be a junior coalition/supply & confidence partner, the thought of such an arrangement would be beyond the pale for moderate Tories, no? I've always thought the talk of the Tories splitting is overblown (as they are largely on the same page on everything but Brexit) but a move like that really could spell serious trouble IMO. Perhaps someone like Nick Boles would start an Independent Conservative group that the likes of Justine Greening, Sam Gymiah and Jo Johnson could move into who would be prepared to vote with Labour and the other opposition parties.

[Trada]

Arwyn Jones
‏ @jonesarwyn

For those asking, here is the unedited interview with @Nigel_Farage in Merthyr yesterday.

https://twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609

[Riquende]

Even if (and that's a big if - see how few MPs UKIP picked up in 2015 after their 2014 European election win)Frottage/the Brexit Party were in a position to be a junior coalition/supply & confidence partner, the thought of such an arrangement would be beyond the pale for moderate Tories, no? I've always thought the talk of the Tories splitting is overblown (as they are largely on the same page on everything but Brexit) but a move like that really could spell serious trouble IMO. Perhaps someone like Nick Boles would start an Independent Conservative group that the likes of Justine Greening, Sam Gymiah and Jo Johnson could move into who would be prepared to vote with Labour and the other opposition parties.

Well, I'd always assumed so, but relying on sensible politicians to pull the brakes on things seems a pretty forlorn hope at the moment...

For the record I'm not saying I think that's likely overall, just that that would be the likeliest way the Brexit Party would squirm into some sort of power.

[filopastry]

Well, I'd always assumed so, but relying on sensible politicians to pull the brakes on things seems a pretty forlorn hope at the moment...

For the record I'm not saying I think that's likely overall, just that that would be the likeliest way the Brexit Party would squirm into some sort of power.

I think they will end up getting into power by effectively taking over the Tories, the low membership numbers in the Tories (plus the hardline views of existing Tory members), made them an easy candidate for UKIPisation and that is exactly what has happened

[Jiminy Cricket]

We will see.

Within minutes I found this and I havent got a clue what I doing you can get very detailed data.

From where did you obtain that screen shot? Post the URL and I'll explain it to you.

Edited to add: this Reddit thread is rather similar to what you reported here, above. It was quickly debunked there too.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/bp2wd8/a_traffic_analysis_of_the_brexit_partys_website/

[Yorkykopite]

I imagine the core demographic of the Brexit party don't use the web much and have been sending cheques.

Cheques? I doubt it. The posh ones will be sending postal orders. The ragged trousered philanthropists will be sending jam jars full of groats.

[ShakaHislop]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1129022177288904705

[Kekule]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1129022177288904705

People are still taking Theresa May at her word?

How cute.

[ShakaHislop]

People are still taking Theresa May at her word?

How cute.

I don't think they are. That letter reads to me as a not-so-subtle message that she's a goner if she doesn't win that vote in the week of the 3rd of June. At that point, she either goes willingly or they'll finally change the rules to allow for another no-confidence vote.

[filopastry]

Tories will clearly pivot to "No Deal" under the next fuckwit who takes over, but equally I don't like their chances of getting that through the current Parliament either.

If they can successfully hoover up the Brexit Party vote without losing too much of their existing support, I suspect a new Tory leader would look to call an election sooner rather than later, it just makes too much sense to do it at a time when Labour are trying to sit on the fence of a debate which is increasingly becoming polarised into No Deal v Remain.

Would expect the Tories to win that anti-Tory/Brexit votes distrbuted more widely between other parties rather than just consolidating behind Labour as it did in 2017, so I suspect both parties likely down on share of the vote v 2017 but Labour more down

[Red-Soldier]

I think that's about right.

Get a new leader in, get a GE, then crack on with "No Deal."

[ShakaHislop]

Tories will clearly pivot to "No Deal" under the next fuckwit who takes over, but equally I don't like their chances of getting that through the current Parliament either.

If they can successfully hoover up the Brexit Party vote without losing too much of their existing support, I suspect a new Tory leader would look to call an election sooner rather than later, it just makes too much sense to do it at a time when Labour are trying to sit on the fence of a debate which is increasingly becoming polarised into No Deal v Remain.

Would expect the Tories to win that anti-Tory/Brexit votes distrbuted more widely between other parties rather than just consolidating behind Labour as it did in 2017, so I suspect both parties likely down on share of the vote v 2017 but Labour more down

Parliament has the power to block an election if it's as against No Deal as it claims though. A new, even more Brexity PM runs the risk of galvanising support behind another referendum if the alternative is No Deal. Block a GE, and then do another Cooper-Boles-Letwin style takeover of the Commons timetable.

[filopastry]

Hard to imagine an opposition ever blocking a GE though

[Riquende]

Hard to imagine an opposition ever blocking a GE though

Especially an opposition so vocal in pushing for one.

[TepidT2O]

Farrage is a corrupt twat.  Who’d have guessed.

He’s our trump.

[BobOnATank]

Tories will clearly pivot to "No Deal" under the next fuckwit who takes over, but equally I don't like their chances of getting that through the current Parliament either.

If they can successfully hoover up the Brexit Party vote without losing too much of their existing support, I suspect a new Tory leader would look to call an election sooner rather than later, it just makes too much sense to do it at a time when Labour are trying to sit on the fence of a debate which is increasingly becoming polarised into No Deal v Remain.

Would expect the Tories to win that anti-Tory/Brexit votes distrbuted more widely between other parties rather than just consolidating behind Labour as it did in 2017, so I suspect both parties likely down on share of the vote v 2017 but Labour more down

Tories are clearly going to go further right and won't be surprised to see frottage bin the brexit party to enable someone like his mate bojo the c*nt take the charge on no deal so as not to split the vote. Labour will probably still sit on the fence but oppose no deal so a lot will not touch them meaning the remain vote will be split. Expect a tory win but who could they form a government with... they might fail and labour might pull a minority government together.

[Red-Soldier]

Parliament has the power to block an election if it's as against No Deal as it claims though. A new, even more Brexity PM runs the risk of galvanising support behind another referendum if the alternative is No Deal. Block a GE, and then do another Cooper-Boles-Letwin style takeover of the Commons timetable.

I hate to break it to you, but I don't think there's any chance that a GE will get blocked by the current opposition.

[OneTouchFooty]

Tories are clearly going to go further right and won't be surprised to see frottage bin the brexit party to enable someone like his mate bojo the c*nt take the charge on no deal so as not to split the vote. Labour will probably still sit on the fence but oppose no deal so a lot will not touch them meaning the remain vote will be split. Expect a tory win but who could they form a government with... they might fail and labour might pull a minority government together.

Like UKIP before them, it’ll be the tail wagging the dog again.

What’s frustrating is that the Brexit Party/Tories can only muster 40% of the vote maximum between them. Whereas between Labour, LD, Greens, SNP you have a solid 50% of the vote. Yet the right wing dominate the headlines and narrative.

[Red_Mist]

Boris PM / No deal hard Brexit on the way 

[TepidT2O]

Boris PM / No deal hard Brexit on the way 

There would still be no majority in Parliament for no deal.

He may try to circumvent parliament of course. 

It’s difficult to know really.  He’s only been in favour of brexit for his own personal gain.  He clearly doesn’t believe in it.

We will now be at the mercey of his greedy selfish self serving ego

[Red_Mist]

Fair point, although I do think he now fully believes in Brexit, even if he didn’t at first.

By the way, what the hell happened to your username?!

[TepidT2O]

Fair point, although I do think he now fully believes in Brexit, even if he didn’t at first.

By the way, what the hell happened to your username?!

Boris will do what benefits Boris.  That’s thre trouble.

My username?  Long story

[killer-heels]

Boris will do what benefits Boris.  That’s thre trouble.

My username?  Long story

Are you related to Big Jezza’s Jizza?

[TepidT2O]

Are you related to Big Jezza’s Jizza?

I’m not sure he’d be happy to be associated with someone so diametrically opposed to Corbyn as me

[Statto Red]

Tepid's username is not that long a story if you go to the right thread
https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=342848.0

[Red_Mist]

Tepid's username is not that long a story if you go to the right thread
https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=342848.0

Haha!

[TepidT2O]

Tepid's username is not that long a story if you go to the right thread
https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=342848.0

Bastard

[Statto Red]

Bastard

 

[Riquende]

Cross-party talks officially over then...

Finally one of them found a reason to end it whilst painting the other one as the guilty party.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

The way they have handled Brexit reminds me of HitchHikers Guide where the Government decide to increase fiscal value (Their currency was leaves) by blowing up trees.

[Red Viper]

"Do not waste this time"

[Zeb]

Corbyn's cancelled any more talks, but seems like indicative votes ahead.

Peston has what Labour and the Tories did agree upon, as well as more details. Seems like someone has helpfully leaked it to try and kill it ahead of time.



https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-17/revealed-the-governments-planned-brexit-deal-with-labour/

Do wonder whether there might be the Labour rebels there for that, in indicative voting, if it weren't for the Tories themselves not having the votes to pass it. Against that, parliament would be gambling that the next Tory leader won't drive us over the cliff after having promised their membership that's exactly what they intend to do...

edit: Twitter video of Corbyn being asked about a potential indicative vote on a referendum. https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1129337699679244288

"We would not rule out a second referendum but it wouldn't be a referendum on 2016 terms. It would be a referendum to prevent a catastrophic 'no deal' exit from the European Union."