Topic: Diogo Jota (Diogo José Teixeira da Silva)

[Knight]

Players can perform over their XG but it's really interesting, as far as I understand it, how often players revert to mean on XG. It turns out that the only tactical piece of advice our old football coach at school, a ruby man through and through, ever gave us, was bang on, 'if you don't shoot, you don't score'. Goal scoring is much more about shooting (at the right times, in the right places) than how good you are at shooting.

[Chris~]

But xG is calculated for an average PL player, not for him personally, and Jota is clearly way above average in finishing. He's also way above average in getting those chances in the first place. He's just a great footballer.

No player finishes that well over a long period either in terms of Xg or just number of shots. Lots of players will go through periods where they over perform over a smaller sample though. 25 shots in a tiny sample, it's not surprising looking at such a small sample there is some variation

[JackWard33]

If he had underlying numbers of 1 in 2 I would expect him to actually score at a rate of better than 1 in 2 because he is a pretty good finisher. So with those underlying numbers I'd be very content. XG is a strange one because 100 shots with a 0.01 XG isn't the same as having a shot from 1 inch which has an XG of 1. Are there stats available for average XG per shot? I suppose it would be easy enough to work out for oneself come to think of it. What was his XG for yesterday for example? About 1?

Yes they are fbref.com

[JackWard33]

But xG is calculated for an average PL player, not for him personally, and Jota is clearly way above average in finishing. He's also way above average in getting those chances in the first place. He's just a great footballer.

Last year at wolves he scored 7 goals from an xg of 9.6 .... so not sure what happened to his way above average finishing then? Most players will revert to the mean of pretty close to it over time
It’s true top strikers can over achieve xg - some by 20% or so (over their careers) ... Jotas scoring at 225% his xg this season so he’ll cool off doesn’t mean he’s not a top player or won’t go on to be

[CraigDS]

What was Salah’s Xg before he got here and what has he performed to for us?

[OkieRedman]

He scored quite a few more than Mane before he got injured, IIRC (2nd behind Salah). Now he's gonna inspire Mane too to kick in. Love it all.

I hope so. He was fantastic at heading the ball in the past. Now he can not put a header anywhere close to the goal, or any shot that is not 2 yards out really. Such a shockingly bad loss of form. Really hope he can find his form again.

If Mane or Salah can get hot along with Jota we could really do some damage during the run in.

[killer-heels]

I dont know about xg but Jota was getting 10 for Wolves so if you said we could get him to score 15 goals every season then I would take that right now.

[jepovic]

Players can perform over their XG but it's really interesting, as far as I understand it, how often players revert to mean on XG. It turns out that the only tactical piece of advice our old football coach at school, a ruby man through and through, ever gave us, was bang on, 'if you don't shoot, you don't score'. Goal scoring is much more about shooting (at the right times, in the right places) than how good you are at shooting.

That's kind of dumb reasoning though, as if all players would be roughly as good. Anyone can see that some players are way better at scoring than others,not just for short spells but for much of their careers. Just look at Salah or Suarez. They will never revert to the same mean as Origi or Carroll.

[jepovic]

Last year at wolves he scored 7 goals from an xg of 9.6 .... so not sure what happened to his way above average finishing then? Most players will revert to the mean of pretty close to it over time
It’s true top strikers can over achieve xg - some by 20% or so (over their careers) ... Jotas scoring at 225% his xg this season so he’ll cool off doesn’t mean he’s not a top player or won’t go on to be

That says more about how limited a stat xG is. Top strikers score way more than 20% more than average strikers, more like 200% more.

[Chris~]

That says more about how limited a stat xG is. Top strikers score way more than 20% more than average strikers, more like 200% more.

They score more usually because they shoot more and tend to get better quality of shots.

For what it's worth Suarez and Origi are averaging just about the same amount of shots per goal over the last 2 and a half seasons in the league, if my math is right

[Chris~]

What was Salah’s Xg before he got here and what has he performed to for us?

League only for us including penalties 22.3, 19, 19.4, 15.1

[Knight]

They score more usually because they shoot more and tend to get better quality of shots

This. Being a top striker is less about having good shooting and more about shooting more and in better positions. It's one of the ways stats have turned conventional football wisdom on its head in a really fun way.

[JackWard33]

That says more about how limited a stat xG is. Top strikers score way more than 20% more than average strikers, more like 200% more.

You’re obv not reading my posts so I don’t know why you’re quoting them?!
My post is about performance relative to expected performance which isn’t what you’re posting about

In general top strikers score more because they take more shots from dangerous positions (ie they accumulate more xg) some add a margin on top of this by being better finishers, some don’t. No one adds more than 30% to their xg over time (messi has pretty much maxed this out) the vast majority end up in a narrow band around the mean

[b_joseph]

Last year at wolves he scored 7 goals from an xg of 9.6 .... so not sure what happened to his way above average finishing then? Most players will revert to the mean of pretty close to it over time
It’s true top strikers can over achieve xg - some by 20% or so (over their careers) ... Jotas scoring at 225% his xg this season so he’ll cool off doesn’t mean he’s not a top player or won’t go on to be

He is way above what his expected goals should be this year...was way behind it last year...was similar to it the year before that. Over the past 3 seasons, he is pretty much bang on his actual and expected goals.

So is he likely to score this efficiently next year? Probably not but what is consistent is his ability to make chances for himself and also find space for others to create chances for him.
Do that enough and things fall into place...unless you are wildly unlucky or just lose your talent.

[JackWard33]

He is way above what his expected goals should be this year...was way behind it last year...was similar to it the year before that. Over the past 3 seasons, he is pretty much bang on his actual and expected goals.

So is he likely to score this efficiently next year? Probably not but what is consistent is his ability to make chances for himself and also find space for others to create chances for him.
Do that enough and things fall into place...unless you are wildly unlucky or just lose your talent.

Well he ‘makes chances for himself and allows others to create chances for him’ at a measurable rate of roughly 0.4 xg per 90 so .... yeah he’s good put whatever spin on it you want ... it’s still measurable

Maybe that rate will increase over the next couple of years - only one way to find out

[mallin9]

All reasonable calls, but Jota played like Kevin Keegan yesterday. The 'small man leap' for the header was Keeganesque as was the late run and determination to push everyone else aside and smash the second into the net.

Yes and he seemed to hang in air on first. Better comp. exciting player on edge of special

[fowlermagic]

He gets himself into areas that lead to better chances as more of a traditional 9 than we had for a while which was badly needed as Firmino does all the dirty work outside the box but is slow to get in where it matters as confidence was low. Jota will give the likes of Trent and Andy more reason to rip the crosses in and he will be the main man in our frontline eventually. Great to have him back as he could be one of the key ingredients for the upsurge in our season. All along teams could double on Salah and we were struggling, now they have to worry about Jota as well. Just before Jota came on we broke with salah harrying off with the ball, Mane & Firmino were trying to catch up in support but did not have the legs to do so, while Jota did.

[Doc Red]

Well he ‘makes chances for himself and allows others to create chances for him’ at a measurable rate of roughly 0.4 xg per 90 so .... yeah he’s good put whatever spin on it you want ... it’s still measurable

Maybe that rate will increase over the next couple of years - only one way to find out

So in a sense,  his current rate of output which is above his expected rate of output, is unsustainable and shouldn't be seen or understood to be something we should expect year on year.
The question then becomes, can his expected rate of output increase as he improves? Is there space for his expected output to increase in a sustainable way? And if the answer is yes, so then even if his current rate of output transgress to the mean,  the expected rate of output would be higher anyway. So he may maintain his current output,  just not at the current rate of ultra efficiency.

Either way,I'll honestly say I had no idea he had it in him. He plays with such a hunger to  score, with a such intelligent movement in and around the box. Not only will the competition benefit Firmino above all but also Mane and Salah, but his constant threat on and off the ball buzzing around the box, will open up the game for them. I'd be interested if Klopp plays the 424 lineup outside of the last 20 mins of games.

[redtel]

All reasonable calls, but Jota played like Kevin Keegan yesterday. The 'small man leap' for the header was Keeganesque as was the late run and determination to push everyone else aside and smash the second into the net.

Spot on Yorky. Not for the first time 😀

I’ve been saying this to my Grandson who has only seen bits of KK on video.

Like Keegan he scored on the first time he started a game with a late winning header against Sheffield Utd and repeated this match winner when coming on against West Ham. He came here confident in his ability and with a determination to make it hard for Klopp to ignore his all round dynamism.

If anybody wasn’t sure about Diogo they should have been after a hat-trick in Bergamo against Atalanta. His speed and energy in that match was so reminiscent of KK. His injury has cost us dearly in the PL and I think he’ll be one of the first names on the team sheet very soon.

 He’s scoring at international level as well as he wants to be the best. Having his skill set plus speed and determination to be the best is a combination that will take him to the top. A bargain as well although not as cheap as the £33,000 we paid Scunthorpe!

[Yorkykopite]

Spot on Yorky. Not for the first time 😀

I’ve been saying this to my Grandson who has only seen bits of KK on video.

Like Keegan he scored on the first time he started a game with a late winning header against Sheffield Utd and repeated this match winner when coming on against West Ham. He came here confident in his ability and with a determination to make it hard for Klopp to ignore his all round dynamism.

If anybody wasn’t sure about Diogo they should have been after a hat-trick in Bergamo against Atalanta. His speed and energy in that match was so reminiscent of KK. His injury has cost us dearly in the PL and I think he’ll be one of the first names on the team sheet very soon.

 He’s scoring at international level as well as he wants to be the best. Having his skill set plus speed and determination to be the best is a combination that will take him to the top. A bargain as well although not as cheap as the £33,000 we paid Scunthorpe!

Good stuff!

Now you mention it, his confidence (even before he'd kicked a ball for the Reds) was very striking, wasn't it? He was coming into a club with its famed and revered trident up front and he clearly knew he was good enough to compete. Turns out he wasn't bullshitting!

[redtel]

No he wasn’t Yorky.

Confidence can get you a long way but he has the talent to go with it no doubt.

Rewarded tonight with a start. Hoping he has a blinder.

[SMASHerano]

Really shouldn't have been the one to come off. He was threatening whenever he was on the ball.

[PIPA23]

he glides the ball...

what a signing he has been.. should have stayed on.

[jepovic]

He can't do Firmino's job in the buildup, not at all. He's just confused there, running around. Needs to be inside the box as much as possible, that's where he's lethal. Jota is not the solution to the Firmino problem

[Ghost Town]

He'll have games like this; every player does. He can't be scoring every game, despite that being the expectation from a lot of people.

Like all our attackers he was starved of quality supply

[LallanaInPyjamas]

He can't do Firmino's job in the buildup, not at all. He's just confused there, running around. Needs to be inside the box as much as possible, that's where he's lethal. Jota is not the solution to the Firmino problem

Agree with this. I'm disappointed we didn't go with all four from the start after the way they played at the Emirates on Saturday.

[redbyrdz]

He's most effective when he's playing with the other three on the pitch. Think teams just can't contain that much extra energy. When he's playing instead of one of the three, be's easier to keep in check.

[Dull Tools]

Agree with this. I'm disappointed we didn't go with all four from the start after the way they played at the Emirates on Saturday.

It would have been suicide doing that away to real. We were already outnumbered in midfield.

He needed to drop Mane, who is out of form, for Jota but he seems reluctant to do so.

[ToneLa]

Our best player right now.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Our best player right now.

He's not better than Salah.

[ToneLa]

He's not better than Salah.

Right now.

[DelTrotter]

He's class, we need him and Salah on the pitch together at all times if we are to somehow get anything from this season. Couldn't care less who's with them, just get them two on the pitch together.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Right now.

Right now, 15 minutes ago, 5 weeks ago, or 5 months ago, he isn't. I'm glad we have him, he's had a brilliant season, but Salah is a world class player who has carried this side in the final third all season, with minimal service.

[Doc Red]

Right now, 15 minutes ago, 5 weeks ago, or 5 months ago, he isn't. I'm glad we have him, he's had a brilliant season, but Salah is a world class player who has carried this side in the final third all season, with minimal service.

Agreed.
It seems we're comfortable adding extra value to players the longer they're unavailable, and do the opposite with those that are consistently producing and are always available.
Jota is a fantastic talent and a shrewd signing, going by his time thus far, but Salah is on another level and has consistently maintained that level. In fact, so consistent that we've taken his displays for granted.

[Tobelius]

Should have scored that free header but it's uncanny how he regularly gets at the end of crosses,he's got great timing and strikers instincts.

[Funky_Gibbons]

It's odd watching him run with the ball, don't think he's got electric pace, doesn't really do many tricks or skills, but he can have three players around him and he somehow gets past them and comes out with the ball. 

[farawayred]

It's odd watching him run with the ball, don't think he's got electric pace, doesn't really do many tricks or skills, but he can have three players around him and he somehow gets past them and comes out with the ball. 

A bit like Suarez, isn't he?

[killer-heels]

Don’t think his pass to Trent got the love it deserved.

[Coolie High]

It's odd watching him run with the ball, don't think he's got electric pace, doesn't really do many tricks or skills, but he can have three players around him and he somehow gets past them and comes out with the ball.

Was thinking the exact same thing.

[Keith Lard]

It's odd watching him run with the ball, don't think he's got electric pace, doesn't really do many tricks or skills, but he can have three players around him and he somehow gets past them and comes out with the ball. 

You know that's going to draw only wank inducing comparisons with a former player don't you

I hope next year is his break out season and he becomes a world class talent, banging in 25+ in the Prem. We need a new superstar.