Topic: Scottish politics [brought to you in association with Walkers shortbread]

[Red-Soldier]

Greens will be big winners as well, especially if Forbes or Regan win (not sure why her maiden name used above, had to google it).

Indeed.  Will be good too.

[TheShanklyGates]

A lot of people have asked me my views of the leadership contest. Truthfully, I have been incredibly hurt so far. Hurt originating with the statements @_KateForbes has made and since stood by. I, like most people in Scotland, could not care less about someone’s religion. (1/10)

If your faith says you cannot drink alcohol, then don’t. If your religion says you cannot enter same sex marriage, then don’t. If your religion does not allow for abortion, then do not have one. (2/10)

However, the moment you use your religion to justify voting against me having access to any of the above, then it is you who is showing intolerance. (3/10)

What you practice in your own time, and how you subscribe to live your life is your business, but as a lawmaker, if you choose to allow your religion to try and deny me my basic human rights, then you make it my business. (4/10)

The idea that Kate is being ‘persecuted’, or that there is a ‘witch hunt’ or ‘unionist media plot’ against her is utterly fanciful at best and a dangerous conspiracy theory at worst. (5/10)

Holding candidates to account, and scrutinising what they have said themselves - on camera, voluntarily, as a pitch to be the next FM of Scotland - is not abuse. (6/10)

Had a candidate said they do not believe in racially mixed marriages we would rightly be horrified - so why is my marriage still considered fair game? (7/10)

How I, and others, are expected to have faith in a leader who unashamedly and publicly believes the love between my wife and I should not be legally recognised, is beyond me (8/10)

Where there has since been shallow calls for, and promises of tolerance made, I find myself thinking of what Humza has said and understood for years: I don’t want to be tolerated, I want to be equal. (9/10)

Kate hasn’t just jeopardised a lot of activists and members, she has alienated swathes of the population before she’s even started. We need, and should expect, better judgement, communication, and leadership skills if we are to ever convince others of independence. (10/10)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1629125518007189504.html

Spot on from Mhairi Black. It's really not that complicated - you have the right to hold whatever beliefs you want and voters have the right to reject you if they disagree.

[Red Beret]

Wow, this looks really dicey for the SNP. I didn't think Scotland would be in play for Labour at the next GE, but if they could pick up even 10 seats it would make getting over the line that much easier.

[Elmo!]

As a counterpoint, and I'm not sure I agree with him, but John Curtice isn't so convinced Labour will gain.

Is Scottish Labour ready to clear up in the aftermath of Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation?

Clearly, former Labour voters who switched to the SNP might be persuaded back into the fold if Labour persuades them a fair, equal country is faster to reach via a re-energised Labour Government at Westminster, than the Scottish Government of an independent country. In short, one more push.

Can Anas Sarwar and Sir Keir Starmer convince “lost” SNP and Green voters? The chances of this are vanishingly small for one reason - Labour north and south of the border are so thoroughly captured by caution and conservatism.

The latest poll results analysed on the BBC’s Sunday Show by Sir John Curtice reveal no big change in Labour support since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation. Admittedly, that could change as the reality of her imminent disappearance sinks in and attention focuses on leadership contenders who inevitably lack the clout and profile Ms Sturgeon has acquired over 20 long years on the front line.

But Prof Curtice highlights the biggest problem for Scottish Labour: they must primarily please existing voters and those currently signing up – folk very largely on the unionist side of the constitutional divide. In other words, Labour and the Conservatives are simply churning support as they have done since 2011 – not converting Yessers in any great numbers.

Sir John concludes, “So far Labour’s advance is limited. It’s primarily a party appealing to No voters and its reach into Yes territory is still much more limited than amongst unionists.”

Of course, if there was a wholesale shift by Tory voters to Labour, then even without SNP converts, the party could do well at a General Election, especially with tactical voting. But that would cement the image of Scottish Labour as Tory-lite - the timorous Scottish end of a union-flag-hugging, God Save the King-singing Labour Party in London. And whilst supporters might hold their noses during a General Election, that will make Anas Sarwar fairly unelectable as First Minister in a Holyrood vote.

But perhaps Scots are warming to Keir Starmer? Research by YouGov in October 2022 found the Labour leader’s net favourability rating in Scotland was +13, higher than Nicola Sturgeon on +11. But something else was happening last October – Prime Minister Liz Truss – and the same poll gave her a whopping -70 favourability rating here.

Back then, all political debate was focused on the sheer awfulness and unapologetic right-wingery of Trussonomics and her barking-mad Conservative Party on the Westminster and international stage. If a Labour leader wasn’t riding high against such a Prime Minister, soon to be abandoned by her party, colleagues and the blessed markets, there would be something far wrong.

So, one might reasonably conclude the increased support for Sir Keir in Scotland came from unionist voters who once saw the Tories as their best bet and suddenly realised that boat had sailed. It’s not at all clear Sir Keir bridged the great divide to win support from ex-Labour, independence-supporting progressives backing the SNP and Greens – then or now.

And there’s the rub. It’s hard to maintain existing unionist support and win over new conservative voters whilst also attracting their polar opposite – the folk who voted Labour till independence offered a different route to the social democracy the bulk of Scots have supported since 1955.

In fairness, the SNP has much the same problem. It’s core vote wants progress towards independence, and a confident new leader to spend time and even political capital explaining why a de facto referendum lets that argument be put clearly and won or lost so we can all move on. But the voters it must attract are not convinced by the de facto plan.

Given that all eyes are currently on SNP leadership contenders, much energy is devoted to their difficulty squaring the circle with far less expended on Labour’s own dilemma. But it certainly exists. On Sunday, Anas Sarwar told Martin Geissler of the BBC that there would be no new tax rises if he became First Minister; “but I’m all for a more progressive tax system”. Whit?

The Labour leader gamely contended that the public objects to having the same outcomes after paying higher taxes. He argued Scottish Labour would improve outcomes before tackling the taxation system. As Father Dougal might ask, “How that does that work, Ted?” How do you improve services without extra funding when every part of the Labour movement in trade unions and councils are screaming out for higher pay, better conditions, and more money spent on basics to transform northern Europe’s most chronically underfunded welfare state?

In any case, a December Savanta poll showed Scots aren’t unhappy about our progressive tax system, with top earners’ tax rises backed by 58% and opposed by just 19% and 73% backing the Scottish Government’s plan to spend that extra cash on health and social care. What tax perception problem is Mr Sarwar trying to fix, or is he under instructions not to endorse anything resembling tax and spend – even though it's popular in Scotland – lest that’s used against Sir Keir “fully costed” Starmer?

Then there was the wee kicker that a Scottish arm of Sir Keir’s British Energy will be set up in Scotland. Could any phrase more quickly summon the branch office genie that was unleashed by former leader Johann Lamont and helped destroy Scottish Labour in 2007?

There’s another snag. The UK polls suggest a total wipe-out lies ahead for the Tories, so that Scottish votes won’t make a difference. Thus, many progressive unionists might secretly relish the prospect of the SNP becoming His Majesty’s Opposition, keeping Sir Keir real and restraining his latent conservativism.

Unless Scots can be persuaded the General Election result is on a knife-edge and that Scottish seats will make any difference – and they’ve only changed the outcome of four general elections since 1918 – there’s no incentive for voters to switch from the SNP to Labour.

This could all change. But Scottish Labour post-Nicola Sturgeon are far from home and dry.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/23332137.post-sturgeon-boost-unlikely-labour/

[Bobsackamano]

Greens will be big winners as well, especially if Forbes or Regan win (not sure why her former married name used above, had to google it).

That's the name used on the betting where I get the odds details. Yeah it's a bit weird, maybe she hasn't formally completed the name change yet as her email address is still Ash.Denham.msp@parliament.scot

Listened to a couple of her interviews and I'm staggered to find she's probably the worst candidate of the lot, im expecting some funny stuff at these televised debates.

[Elmo!]

That's the name used on the betting where I get the odds details. Yeah it's a bit weird, maybe she hasn't formally completed the name change yet as her email address is still Ash.Denham.msp@parliament.scot

Listened to a couple of her interviews and I'm staggered to find she's probably the worst candidate of the lot, im expecting some funny stuff at these televised debates.

If she wasn't such an outsider, she'd be getting absolutely crucified in the press, she's properly nuts.

[Libertine]

Spot on from Mhairi Black. It's really not that complicated - you have the right to hold whatever beliefs you want and voters have the right to reject you if they disagree.

"My church tells me to believe this and therefore I must try to impose that on everyone living in the country. And if you criticise me, that's an attack on my religious freedom".

[Jiminy Cricket]

A lot of people have asked me my views of the leadership contest. Truthfully, I have been incredibly hurt so far. Hurt originating with the statements @_KateForbes has made and since stood by. I, like most people in Scotland, could not care less about someone’s religion. (1/10)

If your faith says you cannot drink alcohol, then don’t. If your religion says you cannot enter same sex marriage, then don’t. If your religion does not allow for abortion, then do not have one. (2/10)

However, the moment you use your religion to justify voting against me having access to any of the above, then it is you who is showing intolerance. (3/10)

What you practice in your own time, and how you subscribe to live your life is your business, but as a lawmaker, if you choose to allow your religion to try and deny me my basic human rights, then you make it my business. (4/10)

The idea that Kate is being ‘persecuted’, or that there is a ‘witch hunt’ or ‘unionist media plot’ against her is utterly fanciful at best and a dangerous conspiracy theory at worst. (5/10)

Holding candidates to account, and scrutinising what they have said themselves - on camera, voluntarily, as a pitch to be the next FM of Scotland - is not abuse. (6/10)

Had a candidate said they do not believe in racially mixed marriages we would rightly be horrified - so why is my marriage still considered fair game? (7/10)

How I, and others, are expected to have faith in a leader who unashamedly and publicly believes the love between my wife and I should not be legally recognised, is beyond me (8/10)

Where there has since been shallow calls for, and promises of tolerance made, I find myself thinking of what Humza has said and understood for years: I don’t want to be tolerated, I want to be equal. (9/10)

Kate hasn’t just jeopardised a lot of activists and members, she has alienated swathes of the population before she’s even started. We need, and should expect, better judgement, communication, and leadership skills if we are to ever convince others of independence. (10/10)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1629125518007189504.html

Spot on from Mhairi Black. It's really not that complicated - you have the right to hold whatever beliefs you want and voters have the right to reject you if they disagree.

Nicely formulated and well put by Mhairi Black. I know nothing about her (except that she is very young - so I could be way off the mark), but if she wasn't so young, I'd suggest that she should run for the leadership.

[Elmo!]

Nicely formulated and well put by Mhairi Black. I know nothing about her (except that she is very young - so I could be way off the mark), but if she wasn't so young, I'd suggest that she should run for the leadership.

Issue is, that while she can run for leadership, she can't be First Minister as she is an MP, not an MSP, so it would be a bit of a weird setup with someone else having to be FM.

The SNP have a lot of dross in Westminster, but they also have some far better calibre politicians there than are standing for leadership. I don't think Black is ready for leadership but the likes of Philippa Whitford, Stephen Flynn or Tommy Sheppard would all be far better than the existing candidates.

[ABZ Rover]

this theory tha the deliberately engineered missing the vote just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. He has been vocally in favour of gay marriage for years, before and after the vote.

Cases like that where people have missed votes are generally when politicians don't want to vote against what they have said publically, but also don't want to break the whip and vote against the government. See Boris and Heathrow runway for an example.

It just doesn't stack up - it's far more likely he's mixed up the exact timeline from 8/9 years ago.

Seems like a lot of individuals actually involved at the time confirming he deliberately contrived to swerve the vote.

[killer-heels]

Are we sure that Kate Forbes is not just a bible bashing c*nt, but a secret Tory in disguise? Talk about trashing your own party and national government.

[KillieRed]

Small “c”  conservative for sure. I find it difficult to believe that anyone who has a religion as a central part of their belief system is fully able to set it aside in their day to day business. It must colour their actions for good or ill. Dragging the SNP right would be terrible for the party but good for Labour who can gain seats, possibly return to government(s) and not listening to the people who elected them again.

[PatriotScouser]

Small “c”  conservative for sure. I find it difficult to believe that anyone who has a religion as a central part of their belief system is fully able to set it aside in their day to day business. It must colour their actions for good or ill. Dragging the SNP right would be terrible for the party but good for Labour who can gain seats, possibly return to government(s) and not listening to the people who elected them again.

I have news for you...........

[In the Name of Klopp]

I have news for you...........

... and that is?

[KillieRed]

Is that muppet still commenting on this thread?

I’ve got him in on ignore, but unfortunately not when quoted. He’s utterly ignorant and out of his depth. The kind of Labour supporter who blames Scotland for losing England to the Tories. Not exactly bright. Can’t wait for his nuanced and considered take on Irish politics next.

[CowboyKangaroo]

What's the view on Yousaf in Scotland? From an outsider's perspective I'd say he has the leadership wrapped up, but interested if anyone closer to this thinks there's still much to play for.

[Bobsackamano]

What's the view on Yousaf in Scotland? From an outsider's perspective I'd say he has the leadership wrapped up, but interested if anyone closer to this thinks there's still much to play for.

The bookies have it not far off neck and neck, Humza slight favourite

Humza Yousaf 8/11
Karen Forbes 11/8
Ash Regan 22/1

[Elmo!]

What's the view on Yousaf in Scotland? From an outsider's perspective I'd say he has the leadership wrapped up, but interested if anyone closer to this thinks there's still much to play for.

Out of the 3, he's by far the outstanding candidate..... but its a very low bar.

He's the most progressive of the 3, and the adult in the room, but there are questions about his temperament and competence.

The thing to remember is it is an STV election, and Regan's vote will almost certainly mostly go to Forbes in the second round, so Yousaf needs to get across the 50% line, or very close to it, in the first round.

There does seem to have been a very coordinated smear campaign against him - the internet is awash with people suddenly calling him a racist against white people (this one is laughably disingenuous), and the previously discussed gay marriage thing.

[KillieRed]

You’ll know better than me , Elmo, can new candidates throw their hat in the ring after the first round of voting?

[Elmo!]

You’ll know better than me , Elmo, can new candidates throw their hat in the ring after the first round of voting?

Nope, deadline has passed.

[ABZ Rover]

Out of the 3, he's by far the outstanding candidate..... but its a very low bar.

He's the most progressive of the 3, and the adult in the room, but there are questions about his temperament and competence.

The thing to remember is it is an STV election, and Regan's vote will almost certainly mostly go to Forbes in the second round, so Yousaf needs to get across the 50% line, or very close to it, in the first round.

There does seem to have been a very coordinated smear campaign against him - the inter

Out of the 3, he's by far the outstanding candidate..... but its a very low bar.

Out of the 3, he's by far the outstanding candidate..... but its a very low bar.

He's the most progressive of the 3, and the adult in the room, but there are questions about his temperament and competence.

The thing to remember is it is an STV election, and Regan's vote will almost certainly mostly go to Forbes in the second round, so Yousaf needs to get across the 50% line, or very close to it, in the first round.

There does seem to have been a very coordinated smear campaign against him - the internet is awash with people suddenly calling him a racist against white people (this one is laughably disingenuous), and the previously discussed gay marriage thing.

I don’t know where to start.

The man is a total failure in every single role he has held - Transport, Justice, Health, a fuckin car crash in all roles. Show me a lists of the man’s achievements ? There are enough people standing up to prove he lied about the SSM vote issue. The issue over his attack on the nursery as well show the man is an arse. He is the Medeved of Putin, the continuity of the Murrell Mafia.

[Jiminy Cricket]

I don’t know where to start.

The man is a total failure in every single role he has held - Transport, Justice, Health, a fuckin car crash in all roles. Show me a lists of the man’s achievements ? There are enough people standing up to prove he lied about the SSM vote issue. The issue over his attack on the nursery as well show the man is an arse. He is the Medeved of Putin, the continuity of the Murrell Mafia.

You appear to be reading a different post to me:

Out of the 3, he's by far the outstanding candidate..... but its a very low bar.

He's the most progressive of the 3, and the adult in the room, but there are questions about his temperament and competence.

The thing to remember is it is an STV election, and Regan's vote will almost certainly mostly go to Forbes in the second round, so Yousaf needs to get across the 50% line, or very close to it, in the first round.

There does seem to have been a very coordinated smear campaign against him - the internet is awash with people suddenly calling him a racist against white people (this one is laughably disingenuous), and the previously discussed gay marriage thing.

[Elmo!]

Yeah.

The point is, whatever you think of Yousaf, have you seen the state of Regan and Forbes?

[ABZ Rover]

Well the rats sure are bailing off the ship.  Or should that be ferries…

[TepidT2O]

Wow… big changes…

End of an epoch in Scottish politics?

[Red-Soldier]

Wow… big changes…

End of an epoch in Scottish politics?

Looks like it.

Time to stick a fork in them, me thinks.

[Musketeer Gripweed]

At least we won't be hearing much from two of them in just over an hour, thank goodness. But, I really don't know if I want any winner out of them. Bombscares, the lot of them.

[Elmo!]

Yousaf wins

[Machae]

Apologies if already posted...

[Kenny's Jacket]

Yousaf wins

I hope he does a good job for you lot.
Im glad the other two didnt win more than anything. 

[Nobby Reserve]

Apologies if already posted...

 

[Elmo!]

I hope he does a good job for you lot.
Im glad the other two didnt win more than anything.

I'm not exactly enthused by him, but the other 2 were not fit for the job for different reasons. That it was so close is disappointing.

I do think for all his faults the attacks on Yousaf during the campaign have been ridiculous. It's been all over the internet that he is a racist because, during the whole BLM/George Floyd thing, he made a speech in parliament making a point of the fact there are no people of colour in a whole host of senior civil service positions in Scotland. Apparently that makes him a racist and thinks there are too many whites in Scotland.

The whole gay marriage thing seems to be based on no more than the belief that muslims can't possibly actually be in favour of it and it must therefore be a stitch up that he missed the final vote.

The NHS under his control has obviously been under strain but it is the only area in the UK that has avoided all strike action and has still outperformed everywhere else on most metrics.

(Can't wait for ABZ Rover's nuanced take on it.  )

[Kenny's Jacket]

I'm not exactly enthused by him, but the other 2 were not fit for the job for different reasons. That it was so close is disappointing.

I do think for all his faults the attacks on Yousaf during the campaign have been ridiculous. It's been all over the internet that he is a racist because, during the whole BLM/George Floyd thing, he made a speech in parliament making a point of the fact there are no people of colour in a whole host of senior civil service positions in Scotland. Apparently that makes him a racist and thinks there are too many whites in Scotland.

The whole gay marriage thing seems to be based on no more than the belief that muslims can't possibly actually be in favour of it and it must therefore be a stitch up that he missed the final vote.

The NHS under his control has obviously been under strain but it is the only area in the UK that has avoided all strike action and has still outperformed everywhere else on most metrics.

(Can't wait for ABZ Rover's nuanced take on it.  )

I used to live in Scotland and my mates up there take on it is pretty similar to yours

Its pissed off Lawrence Fox, that's always a plus

[KillieRed]

The Guardian is festooned with SNP stories today. Usually they only have one negative Scotland/SNP story a day. Today they had John Crace slavering at the prospect of Labour potentially gaining votes, though it might be disappointing for him/them that neither of the centrist candidates prevailed. They also had an opinion piece penned by someone from The (Glasgow) Herald who are at best a unionist paper and have certainly been Tory cheerleaders in the past (haven’t read it since Uni). Strange bedfellows.

Yousuf? No idea. Let’s wait and see.

[Libertine]

Apologies if already posted...

Very good.

In reality of course, seems increasingly unlikely Yousuf will succeed with an independence referendum. And even if he does, highly unlikely Sunak will still be around to deal with it.

Still though - pretty amazing that the British PM, Scottish FM, Irish Taoiseach and London Mayor are now all of South Asian ancestry. We probably take these things for granted a bit these days, but a lot of progress has been made.

[Jiminy Cricket]

@Tepid The new thread title has tickled me.

[KillieRed]

I bet the Brexit mob just see it as further vindication of their views and why our current PM and last two Home Secretary’s have tried to out-racist each other to bolster their bonafides.

[shank94]

A Pakistani negotiating with an Indian for the partition of Britain. You couldn't make it up 

[jillcwhomever]

This has gone under the radar somewhat with all the leadership contest, but it could be a really important welfare bill for wildlife generally at a time when environmental protection is very much up in the air, it's been brought in by an SNP MP Mairi McAllan and includes stepping down on some of the practices which go on by the shooting lobby up on the estates. It includes the following:

end raptor persecution
ensure grouse moors are managed sustainably
ban the use of glue traps for rodents
tighten regulations for the use of other types of wildlife traps

It will be interesting to see how much they manage to push through and also whether it encourages an MP in England to do something similar.

[TepidT2O]

@Tepid The new thread title has tickled me.

My mother in law brought me a birthday present last year.

A pair of walkers shortbread cufflinks



Part of me wishes I could have modicum of understanding for how her brain came up with the idea of buying them for me…. Another part is horrified at the thought