Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19

[RooiBefok]

APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 8

[RooiBefok]

LFC Current & Projected Form : Matchweek 8

[Nessy76]

This really is beginning to look very promising.

[kcbworth]

Happy enough with this

[G Richards]

Looks good. 8 games, six wins, two draws, built on a solid defence, with more to come from midfield and especially attack.

Thanks for the work in plotting this graph. I like the model. It gives us an idea of where we stand, beyond the usual table, as it adds weight to the difficulty of the fixture.

[Nessy76]

With a little under 1/4 of the season gone, it's certainly far too early to draw any conclusions about who might go on to win the league (although there are some teams who have pretty much ruled themselves out of contention) so I thought I'd have a look at what happens if we were to re-calibrate our expectations based on results so far.

In other words, we are currently on +4 above the 90 point line, which means if we play to title winning form for the remainder of the season, we would end up on 94 points. If, however, we still look at 90 points as a target, it means that we could now adjust our targets for upcoming games to reflect that. Anyone who has ever sat through an election night and seen the "swingometer" should have a reasonable idea of how this works. We line up all the fixtures from the easiest to the hardest, like this (home matches first, Par 1s in red):


FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU MNC FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU MNC


Now, let's assume that the basic tenets are true, and that we still want to win all of our home games. We could now convert our two "toughest" Par 3 away games into Par 1 games to keep us on track for the 90 point target. I'll also remove the eight fixtures played already.

FUL CAR WLV HUD WFD BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT NCL EFC BUR ARS MNU MNC

So, with all else being equal, we could now "afford" to draw away to Brighton and Watford while still being on target for 90 points.

Let's repeat the exercise with another club.

FUL CAR SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL EFC BUR ARS CHE LIV MNC FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC ARS CHE LIV TOT MNC

This is Manchester United's new target for the season. Remember, games in red are Par 1, the matches where you can expect and afford to draw.

[Prof]

With a little under 1/4 of the season gone, it's certainly far too early to draw any conclusions about who might go on to win the league (although there are some teams who have pretty much ruled themselves out of contention) so I thought I'd have a look at what happens if we were to re-calibrate our expectations based on results so far.

In other words, we are currently on +4 above the 90 point line, which means if we play to title winning form for the remainder of the season, we would end up on 94 points. If, however, we still look at 90 points as a target, it means that we could now adjust our targets for upcoming games to reflect that. Anyone who has ever sat through an election night and seen the "swingometer" should have a reasonable idea of how this works. We line up all the fixtures from the easiest to the hardest, like this (home matches first, Par 1s in red):


FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU MNC FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU MNC


Now, let's assume that the basic tenets are true, and that we still want to win all of our home games. We could now convert our two "toughest" Par 3 away games into Par 1 games to keep us on track for the 90 point target. I'll also remove the eight fixtures played already.

FUL CAR WLV HUD WFD BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT NCL EFC BUR ARS MNU MNC

So, with all else being equal, we could now "afford" to draw away to Brighton and Watford while still being on target for 90 points.

Let's repeat the exercise with another club.

FUL CAR SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL EFC BUR ARS CHE LIV MNC FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC ARS CHE LIV TOT MNC

This is Manchester United's new target for the season. Remember, games in red are Par 1, the matches where you can expect and afford to draw.

I like what you're doing here nessy.. Good idea.  I wonder if there's a nice way to illustrate this?  Competition for the best approach? Lol

[Goalposts for Jumpers]

I like what you're doing here nessy.. Good idea.  I wonder if there's a nice way to illustrate this?  Competition for the best approach? Lol

I don't know, it took me 20 mins to work out who BMT are 

[Nessy76]

I don't know, it took me 20 mins to work out who BMT are 

I considered BRM but thought it looked too much like Birmingham City. Open to suggestions.

[Goalposts for Jumpers]

I considered BRM but thought it looked too much like Birmingham City. Open to suggestions.

What do they use in top left during a match? My first guess would be BOU, but hadn't given it much thought before now! Either way, was only joking, happy to read what you guys come up with  .

[PoetryInMotion]

I don't know, it took me 20 mins to work out who BMT are 

It got worse for me. I wanted to get it in my mind without any help, looked like a test to me, but I couldn't get it and felt like banging my head for a while and then HAD to open the Premier League table to figure that out 

[Iska]

It got worse for me. I wanted to get it in my mind without any help, looked like a test to me, but I couldn't get it and felt like banging my head for a while and then HAD to open the Premier League table to figure that out 

Same here, fucking hell.  Nearest I could get was Brentford, and then it started wrecking my head even more trying to rationalise why they should be in there even though they’re clearly not a premier league club.

[Claude Cat]

Anyone remember these we used to have in these threads?



Be quality if we had them going again

[Red Beret]

Anyone remember these we used to have in these threads?



Be quality if we had them going again

Yeah, but we hardly need Everton in there now, do we? I mean, we have Man United for that now.

[Prof]

Anyone remember these we used to have in these threads?



Be quality if we had them going again

I'd completely forgotten about those.  You've just sent me back to that season's thread and ended up reading back through some of the discussions.  I could waste hours doing that 

When I started posting about the APLT all those years ago, I wasn't sure how it would be received, but the fact it's still going and getting so much interest is really appreciated.  It's also quite interesting that the model hasn't been changed over all those years despite quite a lot of discussion and analysis of whether it can be improved.

I'll try and find some time to look at recreating those form bands.  Maybe I could include the team names in rank order from the previous season where the dots used to be to tick off who has been played so far to add a quick glance indicator of which hard par 3s are left and which easy par 1s are?

This could be a winner. Thanks Claude 

[RooiBefok]

With a little under 1/4 of the season gone, it's certainly far too early to draw any conclusions about who might go on to win the league (although there are some teams who have pretty much ruled themselves out of contention) so I thought I'd have a look at what happens if we were to re-calibrate our expectations based on results so far.

In other words, we are currently on +4 above the 90 point line, which means if we play to title winning form for the remainder of the season, we would end up on 94 points. If, however, we still look at 90 points as a target, it means that we could now adjust our targets for upcoming games to reflect that. Anyone who has ever sat through an election night and seen the "swingometer" should have a reasonable idea of how this works. We line up all the fixtures from the easiest to the hardest, like this (home matches first, Par 1s in red):


FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU MNC FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU MNC


Now, let's assume that the basic tenets are true, and that we still want to win all of our home games. We could now convert our two "toughest" Par 3 away games into Par 1 games to keep us on track for the 90 point target. I'll also remove the eight fixtures played already.

FUL CAR WLV HUD WFD BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC BUR ARS CHE TOT MNU FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT NCL EFC BUR ARS MNU MNC

So, with all else being equal, we could now "afford" to draw away to Brighton and Watford while still being on target for 90 points.

Let's repeat the exercise with another club.

FUL CAR SOT HUD BRT WFD WHM BMT CPL EFC BUR ARS CHE LIV MNC FUL CAR WLV SOT HUD BMT CPL NCL LEC EFC ARS CHE LIV TOT MNC

This is Manchester United's new target for the season. Remember, games in red are Par 1, the matches where you can expect and afford to draw.

I like what you're doing here nessy.. Good idea.  I wonder if there's a nice way to illustrate this?  Competition for the best approach? Lol

Herewith a quick automation.

If I find the time I will possibly include Team abbreviations into the 'Source Sheet'.  They will then automatically appear on the Table below.

Let me know if you want me to include this together with my weekly tables if of any interest / usefulness.

[RooiBefok]

Anyone remember these we used to have in these threads?



Be quality if we had them going again

I've only ever kept track of LFC if you're interested.

[Brian Blessed]

I just came up (literarily five minutes ago) with the Flat Track Bully APLT. I only considered us, and probably wouldn't bother posting if we didn't look great in it.

For this you draw all home games against the top six, and lose all aways. Then beat the other 14 teams home and away, getting you to 89 points.

So far we've hit our top six oppo target of five points, having played three and seven left to play, so we match or better the target amount

For the rest we are on 15/15.

It's less considered and a bit more thuggish than Prof's APLT, but I thought I'd stick it out there.

[Prof]

I just came up (literarily five minutes ago) with the Flat Track Bully APLT. I only considered us, and probably wouldn't bother posting if we didn't look great in it.

For this you draw all home games against the top six, and lose all aways. Then beat the other 14 teams home and away, getting you to 89 points.

So far we've hit our top six oppo target of five points, having played three and seven left to play, so we match or better the target amount

For the rest we are on 15/15.

It's less considered and a bit more thuggish than Prof's APLT, but I thought I'd stick it out there.

I love it 

The only issue is that really we'd need 100 points as the target now.  So we need to do that with the  14 teams outside the top six ( 84 points) but would need to find another 16 from the 10 games against the top 6 sides.  That could be 3 wins, 7 draws, or 4 wins 4 draws 2 losses.

[PoetryInMotion]

Herewith a quick automation.

If I find the time I will possibly include Team abbreviations into the 'Source Sheet'.  They will then automatically appear on the Table below.

Let me know if you want me to include this together with my weekly tables if of any interest / usefulness.

Sounds interesting, but I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly. Is the rpar of Huddersfield Away for us (9th game) recorded as 1 or d?

[PoetryInMotion]

I love it 

The only issue is that really we'd need 100 points as the target now.  So we need to do that with the  14 teams outside the top six ( 84 points) but would need to find another 16 from the 10 games against the top 6 sides.  That could be 3 wins, 7 draws, or 4 wins 4 draws 2 losses.

I think realistically, this season the title winner can hit 95-100 points in that band range with the runner-up clocking above 90, early 90s maybe.

That means, we realistically have a cushion of 8 draws in all on the safer side, if we want to hit 98 points (can't hold par with a loss for a title anyway, neither have done in your model). If we want to split those games into Home and Away, I'd probably split it 3:5.

We were undefeated at Anfield last season and we need to do it again. We can take 3 draws, in our 3 most difficult games. Probably, that would be Man City, Chelsea & one Spurs/Man United/Arsenal. If we drop points at Anfield against other sides, then the cushion keeps leaking. We've drawn 1 of them and deservedly against 1 of the par 1 home games.

We can draw 5 Away games or we can do a 2D, 2L record away as well. That means we can draw Away to all the rest of the top 6 sides. We've so far defeated Spurs (cushion in case we drop points against sides other than Top 6) and we drew against Chelsea, which is a par 1.

Been thinking about this for a few days now  And the bar has been set ridiculously high. Man City are the culprits of course.

[scalatore]

The only issue is that really we'd need 100 points as the target now.

I don't know if a sample size of one season is really enough to say that it now takes 100 points to win the league. I suspect that's an outlier rather than the new norm.

I love the flat track bully aplt idea, though it would be banter hell seeing us perform so badly against the rest of the big six. I think my biggest issue is that it basically becomes "win every week" - good advice in general, but I'm not sure we need a table for it.

[Brian Blessed]

I love it 

The only issue is that really we'd need 100 points as the target now.  So we need to do that with the  14 teams outside the top six ( 84 points) but would need to find another 16 from the 10 games against the top 6 sides.  That could be 3 wins, 7 draws, or 4 wins 4 draws 2 losses.

I prefer something like the second option. Going unbeaten is an outlier, like getting to 100.

Usually the title winners get 3-4 losses I think. So wins against the bottom 15,draw home and loss away against the top 5. So the points totals go to 95. A decent middle ground, and we still look great. Although I’d say swap Arsenal and ManU for this season.

[JP-65]

I think the 90 point target is still valid as no 2nd place team has broken the 90 point barrier.

So if a team is tracking to 90+ points they are likely to win the title.

[Red Beret]

I think the 90 point target is still valid as no 2nd place team has broken the 90 point barrier.

So if a team is tracking to 90+ points they are likely to win the title.

We've finished second before with a points tally that would have won us the title in another season.  It's par for our course that those years we are very good there has always been another team that has just been insanely good.

As somebody said a few weeks ago, we need several seasons of this kind of form, so we can take full advantage in that one season where there's a slight dip.  Consistency has always been the key.  Not just over one season but a number of them.

[Qston]

We've finished second before with a points tally that would have won us the title in another season.  It's par for our course that those years we are very good there has always been another team that has just been insanely good.

As somebody said a few weeks ago, we need several seasons of this kind of form, so we can take full advantage in that one season where there's a slight dip.  Consistency has always been the key.  Not just over one season but a number of them.

Absolutely. Consistently hit 85+ points over a few years cycle and you will eventually win the league. The difficult bit is the consistency and keeping it at the same level or better

[RooiBefok]

Sounds interesting, but I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly. Is the rpar of Huddersfield Away for us (9th game) recorded as 1 or d?

Huddersfield (9th game) originally required us to win as a par 3 (3 APLT points).  It is now only necessary to draw as a rpar 1 (1 APLT Point).

Rpar is reflected as a 'd' which equates to 1.

The same scenario applies to Watford (13th game).  This may however change depending on our results through games 9 to 12 hence the term Revolving Par (rpar).

[Nessy76]

Huddersfield (9th game) originally required us to win as a par 3 (3 APLT points).  It is now only necessary to draw as a rpar 1 (1 APLT Point).

Rpar is reflected as a 'd' which equates to 1.

The same scenario applies to Watford (13th game).  This may however change depending on our results through games 9 to 12 hence the term Revolving Par (rpar).

So you're going with the order of fixtures rather than the relative difficulty?

[RooiBefok]

So you're going with the order of fixtures rather than the relative difficulty?

The Table I knocked together takes into account the order of fixtures rather than the relative difficulty.  This is due to the Table been automated and not manually adjusted.

Once/If this gains any traction I will try find the time to include the Team abbreviations into the ‘Source Sheet’ following which the Table could then be possibly automated to take into account the relative difficulty.

However, as the Scenario could change after the very next games result it may be more relevant to base it on the order of fixtures, but that is entirely your call.

[The Final Third]

Not sure if this is the right thread but It seems relevant, also quite obvious. We are well placed:

[stevieheighway]

Sweet, that really confirms it, Chelsea's league position could be highly inflated, thanks mate

Not sure if this is the right thread but It seems relevant, also quite obvious. We are well placed:

[Ciara (with a capital "C")]

Man United lol

[Nessy76]

The Table I knocked together takes into account the order of fixtures rather than the relative difficulty.  This is due to the Table been automated and not manually adjusted.

Once/If this gains any traction I will try find the time to include the Team abbreviations into the ‘Source Sheet’ following which the Table could then be possibly automated to take into account the relative difficulty.

However, as the Scenario could change after the very next games result it may be more relevant to base it on the order of fixtures, but that is entirely your call.

Nice one. Thanks.

[Nessy76]

Sweet, that really confirms it, Chelsea's league position could be highly inflated, thanks mate

Possibly, but it's not as if they could have done much more. I think Chelsea's season will depend on how long Hazard stays fit and in form. Historically, he has been extremely inconsistent,  his most prolific season in the Premier League so far saw him score sixteen goals. If he's able to double that output, then Chelsea should have a chance, if not, it's hard to see where the goals will come from.

[stevieheighway]

ROFL, just spotted that, how fucked are they, I just hope Maureen lasts until we humiliate them

Man United lol

[telekon]

Possibly, but it's not as if they could have done much more. I think Chelsea's season will depend on how long Hazard stays fit and in form. Historically, he has been extremely inconsistent,  his most prolific season in the Premier League so far saw him score sixteen goals. If he's able to double that output, then Chelsea should have a chance, if not, it's hard to see where the goals will come from.

[Iska]

Man United lol

Excellent.  Actually, none of the contenders are anywhere near us, which is a bit weird.  Explains how we were able to gallop off in the real APLT I suppose.

[Nessy76]

Excellent.  Actually, none of the contenders are anywhere near us, which is a bit weird.  Explains how we were able to gallop off in the real APLT I suppose.

We had more par one matches in our opening run than anyone else, four by the time we played Chelsea with none of the other big six having more than two. The flip side is that we only have one par one in our last eight!

[Brian Blessed]

From easiest to hardest (Change from position they’re actually in)
1 Chelsea (-1)
2 Burnley (-10)
3 Bournmouth (-3)
= Everton (-8)
= Manchester Untied (-5)
6 Crystal Palace (-8)
7 Watford (-2)
8 Manchester City (+7)
= Tottenham (+3)
10 Arsenal (+6)
= Leicester (=)
= Southampton (-6)
13 Wolves (+6)
14 Fulham (-3)
15 Cardiff (-5)
16 Huddersfield (-2)
= Liverpool (+13)
= West Ham (+1)
19 Newcastle (=)
20 Brighton (+7)

So we are doing the best and Everton the equal worst 

[RooiBefok]

Nice one. Thanks.

This turned out to be far simpler to automate than originally envisaged.

It includes your methodology of taking into account the relative difficulty of the remaining ‘Away’ fixtures.

Trust this is what you are after.