I think the fact that the media is reporting Messi and VVD as the frontrunners for the competition more or less means VVD just about has it in the bag, barring if we concede a million goals before the end of voting.
Trophies are a big part of winning it, but more than that, it's the popular narrative that's important. Modric won it because Croatia making it to the final of the CL is a huge deal, and it'll be the same for VVD if he wins, because Liverpool winning the CL is regarded as a good news story - old European royalty overcoming the odds to reemerge as a top team in Europe.
The only narrative that beats that is a sentimental award for old man Messi having another great, albeit ultimately tragically sad season as he's let down by his teammates. But I don't think that's the story. The story, as I said, is man mountain VVD leading Liverpool back to the peak of European football.