Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[TepidT2O]

Yeah but it's very important to remember what has happened over the last 3 yrs, she made the PMs job impossible when she laid down her red lines, it made any good deal impossible.it also helped rip the country in half.

True enough...

Then again her red lines were also the inevitable result of the Brexit loonies in her party....

A funny old world.

[jillcwhomever]

This is interesting. According to sources tonight the size of Johnson's Brexit "negotiating" team have been cut to less than a quarter to that of the May team. He really cannot have any interest in gaining a deal.

[oldfordie]

True enough...

Then again her red lines were also the inevitable result of the Brexit loonies in her party....

A funny old world.

I don't know what to believe, I have read she was advised to lay those red lines down but what you say makes more sense, shes asked these MPs what does Brexit actually mean, what do we have to do to leave the EU, thing is am sure she laid all those red lines down without fully understanding the implications at that time. it looks like many of the nutty leave mps who may have demanded those red lines never understood as well. I remember the EU saying our ministers dont understand the difference between the SM and the CU, they were talking about Mays first cabinet. if they didn't understand the difference between the SM+CU then they would not have a clue on the implications of those red lines.

[redmark]

A handy map published already with the Independents shown in grey, to compare with the above remain/marginal leave Tory seats. Particularly the wide commuter belt around London. Remain/narrow leave seats, with moderate Tory MPs now deselected.

[filopastry]

What is the status of Labour's trigger ballot procedure, is that still likely to go ahead if we are looking at an October or November election?

[Zeb]

What is the status of Labour's trigger ballot procedure, is that still likely to go ahead if we are looking at an October or November election?

Effectively cancelled if an election is called with automatic reselection of incumbent, unless they've changed rules over the summer.

[redmark]

What is the status of Labour's trigger ballot procedure, is that still likely to go ahead if we are looking at an October or November election?

Timetable was due to be set in September, I've had no email on the subject yet. As full selection process is 8-12 weeks, it's already too late if there's an October/November election.
 

[BrandoLFC]

Ahahahaha:

[Kashinoda]

Could the EU extend the October 31st deadline after a motion for a GE passes? Or can we force it whenever.

I'm living in a fantasy land where Labour agree this with the EU on the sly and 180 on their decision not to vote on a GE, leaving Johnson up paddle creek without a shit.

[Kashinoda]

[redmark]

Apparently Sam Gyimah has said on Sky that the rebels parliamentary passes have been stopped.

[oldfordie]

Could the EU extend the October 31st deadline after a motion for a GE passes? Or can we force it whenever.

I'm living in a fantasy land where Labour agree this with the EU on the sly and 180 on their decision not to vote on a GE, leaving Johnson up paddle creek without a shit.

We cant force it on the EU, the worry is it only takes one country in the EU to veto any extension and we are out. Corbyns been handling the situation well today. told Johnson your not getting your GE unless the threat of a no deal is ruled out.
Most likely scenario for me is a extension while we hold a GE while we are still in the EU. I would rather see a extension while we hold a referendum personally.

[oldfordie]

Apparently Sam Gyimah has said on Sky that the rebels parliamentary passes have been stopped.

? WOOOOW, The Tory party are deactivating the electronic swipe passes rebels use to enter Parliament. it wont stop the MPs from entering parliament after they are issued with new passes but it shows just what sort of government we are dealing with.
Would like to see them all stuck out side the gates telling the press Johnsons trying to stop me from voting today.

[skipper757]

Been following closely from across the pond for the better part of the last decade.

A crazy day in parliament but not out of the woods yet.

It seems like Boris and Cummings had two levers to pull:

First, the suspension of parliament and running down time to October 31 with no deal.  If there is no effective pushback, then they get what they want.  The path of least resistance in terms of timing and amount of work to do but most resistance in terms of outcry from opposition and rebels.  High risk, high reward.  Now, with the vote today and the vote on the bill tomorrow, this option looks like it could be a no-go.

Second, pushing a GE (even with extension) focusing on a simple message:  A vote for us is a vote for Brexit.  Cummings probably wants to use the chaos and the general haphazard nature of the opposition to sell an easily digestible message to the public.  If you want Brexit, vote for Boris.  If you aren't sure, respect the will of the people and vote for Boris and Brexit.  If you are worried, don't be and respect the will of the people and the spirit of the British to get through.  And if you're a rebel MP, either fall in line or get deselected.  Meanwhile, the biggest opposition is Labour but to stop Boris, they need to agree on a Brexit plan (e.g. 2nd ref May deal vs. remain, 2nd ref new Corbyn deal, etc vs. remain, or some other plan) internally and maybe with other opposition?  The opposition also spans a lot of differing viewpoints on non-Brexit issues that can be used to drive a wedge between them.  There may be a lot of tactical voting needed, but there's not always time or common ground to get it right.  Boris risks losing some marginals like Putney (a traditionally safe Tory seat that Greening only won by 1,500 in 2017), but if he can overcome those losses and gain enough seats (with rebel Tories gone), he, Rees-Mogg, and others can dance their way to a no deal.

Cummings probably fancies himself to help win another election after 2016 but if deadline is moved back to Jan 31, how much does that hurt Boris?  Would the election take place later, allowing for longer campaigning?  Boris seems to want October 15 anyway.

Is the most likely outcome:  bill passes tomorrow --> EU grants extension --> election happens

Now what happens if there is no election?  Is that even tenable from an anti-Brexit perspective?  Even with no deal off the table and with an extension, no deal is still technically the default, correct?  Just like the previous March 29 deadline?  Essentially unless you keep getting extensions, you'll leave without a deal.  Of course Boris can come up with a deal, but it doesn't look like he's trying all that hard...

Strong speech from Corbyn there too.  Doesn't always inspire but that was a nice slam on Boris.

Wonder if Boris and Cummings may have overplayed their hand on the first lever, but if there is an election, I wouldn't take for granted that Boris would lose, even with all the Tory chaos.  Also wouldn't put it past them to continue to try all sorts of shit to get to no deal.

[rodderzzz]

In theory, could we find ourselves in a situation if we have an election that both Tories/Brexit Party and Labour/Lib dems would have enough seats between them to form coalitions?

If so, who would have the first opportunity to do that? Would it be the party with the most minority seats?

[jymbojetset]

In theory, could we find ourselves in a situation if we have an election that both Tories/Brexit Party and Labour/Lib dems would have enough seats between them to form coalitions?

If so, who would have the first opportunity to do that? Would it be the party with the most minority seats?

I believe that the incumbent prime minister would have first opportunity to form a government.

[Asam]

I believe that the incumbent prime minister would have first opportunity to form a government.

Yes, but who would they do that with?

SNP? no
Lib Dem’s? No
Green Party? no
plaid? no
UKIP? Yes
Brexit party? yes
DUP? Not sure if they would support the Tories if Labour was for remain


Oh and the Scottish Tories wI’ll probably take a kicking too 😀

[PaulF]

If we are still in Europe on November 1st, I don't see how Boris can remain as pm.  I can't see an election being held before then( though I don't claim to own a crystal ball)

[jymbojetset]

Yes, but who would they do that with?

SNP? no
Lib Dem’s? No
Green Party? no
plaid? no
UKIP? Yes
Brexit party? yes
DUP? Not sure if they would support the Tories if Labour was for remain



Oh and the Scottish Tories wI’ll probably take a kicking too 😀

And then we come full circle to a GoNU!

Interesting times!!

[TravisBickle]

I’ll take serious shit for this but the Tory MPs who went against the government last night deserve massive fucking credit.

Cummings is utter scum.

[goalrushatgoodison]

And then we come full circle to a GoNU!

Interesting times!!

I am firmly of the opinion that the only way to stop Johmson is a GoNU. and a second referendum. A perfectly executed election pact might do it but I doubt that pact can be achieved unless Labour go full remain. However even with a perfectly executed election pact, they wouldn't be in a much better position numbers wise than they are after last night. Of course, Corbyn might be because he could claim some sort of mandate to lead a coalition but the anti no deal camp wouldn't be.

The problem is what would a GoNU, if it was established,  do about Brexit? They don't  have the votes to pass a deal as far as i can see ( Lib Dems and SNP firmly anti Brexit )? Again, the only way that stops Johnson, in the long term, is going full remain and calling a second refendum and I'm not sure there would be the votes in the GoNU to go there either.

The public have Brexit fatigue. They just want it over. There are only two ways to end it - get it done or a second referendum.

[red_Mark1980]

I believe that the incumbent prime minister would have first opportunity to form a government.

It's not what happened with Cameron and Clegg. I think the largest party has the opportunity first

[red_Mark1980]

Are we assuming the EU will grant a further extension?

I mean they don't have to do they?

[gazzalfc]

I’ll take serious shit for this but the Tory MPs who went against the government last night deserve massive fucking credit.

Cummings is utter scum.

Nope. Rats running from a sinking ship. They have had months and months to call out their government and keep no deal off the table.

There was a 27 vote majority last night. Even if those 21 voted with their party, they would have lost.

Those MP's are covering their arse for when they go back to their constituencies for a GE.

[gazzalfc]

Are we assuming the EU will grant a further extension?

I mean they don't have to do they?

Nope.

But if there is an election promised then they will let that happen. They don't want a no deal brexit (even if they are in a better position to cope with one than we are).

[Zeb]

Are we assuming the EU will grant a further extension?

I mean they don't have to do they?

Aye. Don't have to, may change mind, may set conditions no-one wants to it. Think there's enough hints that one is being considered. Was thought that April 2020 (start of new EU budget) would be the ultimate cut-off point but there's actually contingency planning currently going on which would potentially allow an extension go past that point - although would require our EU contributions to continue so another stink in the making if it happens.

[Elmo!]

 

In scientific terms, this is known as a Bell End Curve.

[jillcwhomever]

I’ll take serious shit for this but the Tory MPs who went against the government last night deserve massive fucking credit.

Cummings is utter scum.

I agree whatever party they belong to it takes guts to do what they did.

[eddymunster]

In scientific terms, this is known as a Bell End Curve.

That your own work or have you been reading reddit comments? 

[Zeb]

Starmer saying interesting things this morning. Message seems to be that if bill passes Labour will agree to an election - possibly as soon as Friday or perhaps Monday then. 15th October election. Also suggesting alternative is replacing government. Which redmark mentioned last night and has been kicked around here a fair bit in the past. Has equation changed sufficiently for Tory rebels and others to install Corbyn? Does a Corbyn minority government now, which avoids 'no deal', outweigh the idea of a Johnson 'no deal' followed by a Corbyn majority government down the line? Seems a stretch but Corbyn's leverage increases the more Johnson shows himself unfit and dangerous in office. etc. etc.

[Betty Blue]

Nope. Rats running from a sinking ship. They have had months and months to call out their government and keep no deal off the table.

There was a 27 vote majority last night. Even if those 21 voted with their party, they would have lost.

Those MP's are covering their arse for when they go back to their constituencies for a GE.

If you could get off your high horse for a moment, maybe you could take a second to actually count. Those 21 Tory rebels equate to a 42 swing vote since they're not only denying the Tories their vote but adding them to our total. So yes, they did make a huge fucking difference. Brexit moves us far beyond party allegiances and those rebels deserve at least some credit for risking their political careers for the good of the country. Which is what so many have been calling for politicians to start doing.

Perhaps something could have been done sooner, perhaps not. But ultimately they did right by the country last night and for that they get my (and many others, I expect) appreciation.

[redmark]

It's not what happened with Cameron and Clegg. I think the largest party has the opportunity first

It was what happened. Brown stayed in No. 10 for a couple of days, and there were some initial discussions with the Lib Dems.

[gazzalfc]

If you could get off your high horse for a moment, maybe you could take a second to actually count. Those 21 Tory rebels equate to a 42 swing vote since they're not only denying the Tories their vote but adding them to our total. So yes, they did make a huge fucking difference. Brexit moves us far beyond party allegiances and those rebels deserve at least some credit for risking their political careers for the good of the country. Which is what so many have been calling for politicians to start doing.

Perhaps something could have been done sooner, perhaps not. But ultimately they did right by the country last night and for that they get my (and many others, I expect) appreciation.

Ok maths aside (it's too early for maths) which you are right about

No MP of any colour should come out of this god forsaken process with any credit. The Brexit referendum was at it's very core a lie to the country that only history will come to judge us.

But least of all Tory MP's. A party that owned the rhetoric of 'project fear' and 'remoaners' and the right wing media. When anyone that looks at the evidence for 1 second would know just what a bad decision Brexit was/is/will be. These MP's have been standing by their party long before the referendum.

The fact that you think that these MP's should be congratulated for possibly extending brexit negotiations and possibly getting a GE shows just how low the bar is in politics

I would have more respect for them that came out said 'Yeah. This was a huge mistake and I will now campaign behind revoking article 50 and remaining in the EU'

That is where the bar should be. Balanced, Evidence driven politics and policies.

[No666]

Starmer saying interesting things this morning. Message seems to be that if bill passes Labour will agree to an election - possibly as soon as Friday or perhaps Monday then. 15th October election. Also suggesting alternative is replacing government. Which redmark mentioned last night and has been kicked around here a fair bit in the past. Has equation changed sufficiently for Tory rebels and others to install Corbyn? Does a Corbyn minority government now, which avoids 'no deal', outweigh the idea of a Johnson 'no deal' followed by a Corbyn majority government down the line? Seems a stretch but Corbyn's leverage increases the more Johnson shows himself unfit and dangerous in office. etc. etc.

If Corbyn leads an alternative government now, surely he would be kicked in quite a few constituencies in the Labour heartland at the subsequent election. I see the Mail online has a 'Death of Democracy' headline, (while the print version is more circumspect). That will dial up. Might be cleverer to go with Clarke who's not standing again.

[AndyMuller]

Who’s this John Mann tit that’s on BBC News now? He speaks like Fat Sam the bad wool.

[eddymunster]

Ok maths aside (it's too early for maths) which you are right about

No MP of any colour should come out of this god forsaken process with any credit. The Brexit referendum was at it's very core a lie to the country that only history will come to judge us.

But least of all Tory MP's. A party that owned the rhetoric of 'project fear' and 'remoaners' and the right wing media. When anyone that looks at the evidence for 1 second would know just what a bad decision Brexit was/is/will be. These MP's have been standing by their party long before the referendum.

The fact that you think that these MP's should be congratulated for possibly extending brexit negotiations and possibly getting a GE shows just how low the bar is in politics

I would have more respect for them that came out said 'Yeah. This was a huge mistake and I will now campaign behind revoking article 50 and remaining in the EU'

That is where the bar should be. Balanced, Evidence driven politics and policies.

Great post.

Fuck congratulating any MP that has let us get into the situation where we are all desperately hoping, not for a positive outcome, but the least damaging option.

Every single one of the 650 are responsible to different degrees for this absolute shit show we're now staring down the barrel of.

[KillieRed]

My parents, lifelong Labour voters in their 70s announced last night that they wouldnt be voting for Labour at the next election "because of that Corbyn".

My teenage daughter was particularly aggrieved with her gran who said she probably wouldnt vote at all.

Labour can`t win a GE.

[jymbojetset]

It's not what happened with Cameron and Clegg. I think the largest party has the opportunity first

I thought that the labour party accepted that they would be unable to form a coalition? If lib-dems had gone with labour, there was another possibility.

Frightening what has happened since then and how quick.

EDIT - note that Redmark has already responded.

[Snail]

Who’s this John Mann tit that’s on BBC News now? He speaks like Fat Sam the bad wool.

He's a bad melt who needs to be ignored at all costs.

[Snail]

So I rang my mum last night. They both voted Leave, but whereas my mum quite quickly realised it wasn't going to go as smoothly as she thought, my dad up until recently was saying how he though Johnson was "alright". Well, it turns out that he's now terrified that he won't be able to get the medication that keeps him alive in the event of No Deal.

The last time I saw him in person we had a blazing argument because I asked him whether or not he cared about my future (and his grandkids' future). I came away from it thinking that maybe he doesn't. Turns out he's only arsed when it's going to affect him directly.

The man who was my hero once is now fucking deranged. He's still saying he'll vote Tory this time round and all, because Corbyn is "dangerous".