Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Commie Bobbie]

I tend to think Nov as well, after that they really are dicing with a winter crisis in the NHS dominating the headlines

I don't think they'll go the same time as the US - read something that the security services both sides of the Atlantic have deep reservations about them happening within days of each other.

Think they'll go either June - or January 2025.

It still wouldn't shock me if he called it early December 2023 for an January 2024 election - base it purely on the flights - go for an 'who runs the country' narrative.

[west_london_red]

I don't think they'll go the same time as the US - read something that the security services both sides of the Atlantic have deep reservations about them happening within days of each other.

Think they'll go either June - or January 2025.

It still wouldn't shock me if he called it early December 2023 for an January 2024 election - base it purely on the flights - go for an 'who runs the country' narrative.

Whether it’s a rule or a convention I don’t know, but they have to give 6 weeks notice usually so councils can get ready, send out polling cards etc, and January is never a good time to hold an election for a ruling party as everyone is skint after Christmas and its obviously not good politics to ask people to vote then.

[Kashinoda]

[Schmarn]

It will either be May to coincide with the local elections or October before the clocks go back. Sunak is a coward so October is most likely.

[Fromola]

If it becomes more and more inevitable that Labour will win the election then it'd be interesting to see just how far the Tory vote will drop. The panic over Corbyn or Brexit getting mothballed was enough for the Tory base to come out in 2019, why would anyone vote for them at the next election, particularly if it's inevitable they'll lose? They've lost the centre/centre right (trying to win it back with gimmicks like bringing Dave back) and fucking Braverman off and failing at everything will only see them lose the headbangers on the right. The red wall is pretty much lost (their vote was mostly for Brexit in 2019), so who are they actually appealing to now? If it's just the top few percent of earners then by definition that's a small base. The middle classes have also been hit hard by the COL crisis.

Reform are polling well but usually it gets to an election and the right pretty much all mobilise behind the Tory Party (in a way the left/liberal/centre don't do behind Labour).  I think the vast majority of their seats are up for grabs, particularly if tactical voting comes into play. Dorries lost her seat despite Labour and Lib Dems not backing down but in a general election you can't afford them to split the anti-Tory vote like that.

As catastrophic as 2019 was for Labour they still got 40% of the vote and 202 seats. The Tories could conceivably get nearer half that and from the position of a big majority now (Labour were already in opppsition).

[PatriotScouser]

The Labour NEC and politicians are expecting a May/June GE (this was before last Thursday) from the conversations I had with people.

For 4 main reasons.

1) Tories expect to win the court case regarding the boats and because of that but much more mainly the weather, there will be a decrease of boats crossing the channel. The tories will say it will be because of them, but in reality once summer comes and it gets warmer it will increase again. Therefore some tories believe there is a certain window of opportunity in the spring/early summer in which it would be advantageous to hold a GE


2) March budget. Tories will attempt to trap Labour by cutting income tax in the budget in March. So tories are hoping Labour will have to announce with these tax cuts how they will spend money. Will they have to raise taxes? So the tories will be looking to trap Keir and Labour.

3) Divisions within the tory party. Sunak can hardly control the different wings of the party and as such will use a GE or a threat of a GE in May/June to keep those MPs in check.

4) Tories want to avoid a GE at the same time as the US election

This is first and second hand information I received from a couple of MPs and a couple of people on the NEC and also from my MP report back to us. They are gearing up for a May/June election.

But last Thursday's results may have spooked Sunak and his team though. So it could well be another year yet, sadly.

(I had put this in the tory thread by mistake!)

I still feel June is very possible but one has to question if Cameron would come back only for a few months? More likely he'd want at least one year to try and help Sunak turn it around for them.

Halloween is on Thursday next year......Just saying 

[Red Beret]

I still feel June is very possible but one has to question if Cameron would come back only for a few months? More likely he'd want at least one year to try and help Sunak turn it around for them.

Halloween is on Thursday next year......Just saying 

Based on that, no wonder the Tories are freaking out over the Rwanda ruling and talking of just bypassing the Supreme Court.

As for Cameron, who knows what bs Sunak told him? The Tories are as bad as the Sith when it comes to stabbing each other in the back.

[John C]

I still feel June is very possible but one has to question if Cameron would come back only for a few months?

Money, status, recognition, ego are just a few reasons why he'd perhaps come back even for just a matter of months?

[Wabaloolah]

As catastrophic as 2019 was for Labour they still got 40% of the vote and 202 seats. The Tories could conceivably get nearer half that and from the position of a big majority now (Labour were already in opppsition).

not sure where you got the figures from but Labour got 32% in 2019 not 40%. 40% was 2017 when it was a hung parliament

[PaulF]

If it becomes more and more inevitable that Labour will win the election then it'd be interesting to see just how far the Tory vote will drop. The panic over Corbyn or Brexit getting mothballed was enough for the Tory base to come out in 2019, why would anyone vote for them at the next election, particularly if it's inevitable they'll lose? They've lost the centre/centre right (trying to win it back with gimmicks like bringing Dave back) and fucking Braverman off and failing at everything will only see them lose the headbangers on the right. The red wall is pretty much lost (their vote was mostly for Brexit in 2019), so who are they actually appealing to now? If it's just the top few percent of earners then by definition that's a small base. The middle classes have also been hit hard by the COL crisis.

Reform are polling well but usually it gets to an election and the right pretty much all mobilise behind the Tory Party (in a way the left/liberal/centre don't do behind Labour).  I think the vast majority of their seats are up for grabs, particularly if tactical voting comes into play. Dorries lost her seat despite Labour and Lib Dems not backing down but in a general election you can't afford them to split the anti-Tory vote like that.

As catastrophic as 2019 was for Labour they still got 40% of the vote and 202 seats. The Tories could conceivably get nearer half that and from the position of a big majority now (Labour were already in opppsition).

I suspect a lot of people vote the way they always did, and just cherry pick policies to back that decision.  A reasonable number vote for change which is why we keep seeing governments change. God that's depressing, hopefully not true.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Money, status, recognition, ego are just a few reasons why he'd perhaps come back even for just a matter of months?

Yep. Let's not forget, the last time the majority of the British public saw him was when he resigned the day after the referendum which he called unbelievably recklessly....and then lost (most likely in part due to his own policies of nation-destroying austerity). That referendum remains one of the most catastrophic peacetime moves by any British Prime Minister in the history of British democracy.

If he can take some off the sting of that, he'll try. That said, it's looking like it might have the opposite effect, and instead of cleaning his image it might just bring attention to the fact he is also a corrupt a c*nt:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/22/hmrc-david-cameron-greensill-flights

[killer-heels]

If I were the Tories I would hold it as late as possible. The old will crawl over broken glass to vote and i would think the Tories have more chance of increasing their percentage vote by having it in late Autumn when nobody wants to leave the house.

[Red Beret]

How many old Tories will die between now and the election I wonder?

[Elliemental]

How many old Tories will die between now and the election I wonder?

According to Tory policy, it seems, as many as possible. I find it weird how they were hellbent on bumping off their own voters (especially during the pandemic).

[PatriotScouser]

Bringing in the NI cuts in January and not April is rather unusual, as the financial year is not the same as the calendar year.

Therefore I would suggest that a GE may indeed happen earlier than we think in May/June than in October/November. Just a thought.

[Nobby Reserve]

How many old Tories will die between now and the election I wonder?

Wasn't there a study that showed the normal progression toward the right on the political spectrum when one gets older, was becoming less and less a thing?

Remember that many pensioners now were alive during and/or the years following WW2, when there was still the British Empire. Certainly before the social liberalisation that kicked in from the 1960's.

[Circa1892]

Bringing in the NI cuts in January and not April is rather unusual, as the financial year is not the same as the calendar year.

Therefore I would suggest that a GE may indeed happen earlier than we think in May/June than in October/November. Just a thought.

Yep. Couple of months with an extra £30-50 in peoples bank accounts, before the energy prices go up again...

[filopastry]

Bringing in the NI cuts in January and not April is rather unusual, as the financial year is not the same as the calendar year.

Therefore I would suggest that a GE may indeed happen earlier than we think in May/June than in October/November. Just a thought.

It does feel like the chances of a Spring election have gone up a bit after today.

[west_london_red]

Wasn't there a study that showed the normal progression toward the right on the political spectrum when one gets older, was becoming less and less a thing?

Remember that many pensioners now were alive during and/or the years following WW2, when there was still the British Empire. Certainly before the social liberalisation that kicked in from the 1960's.

There’s an argument it’s not just getting old that makes people turn to the right as they get older, it’s getting old and owning a home, and that becomes harder to do that’s why the age at which people become Tories is increasing consistently.

[Red-Soldier]

There’s an argument it’s not just getting old that makes people turn to the right as they get older, it’s getting old and owning a home, and that becomes harder to do that’s why the age at which people become Tories is increasing consistently.

Yes, it's related to assest accumulation.  That's why the trend is stopping now.  People are not accumulating the same wealth, as they once did.  You're either on that train already, or not. 

[west_london_red]

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

[Statto Red]

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

That site is only available to subscribers.

[Jiminy Cricket]

That site is only available to subscribers.

Here you go:

https://archive.is/HsZCg

[Statto Red]

Here you go:

https://archive.is/HsZCg

Cheers.

[west_london_red]

That site is only available to subscribers.

That’s odd? I’m not a subscriber and I was able to access it

[Jiminy Cricket]

That’s odd? I’m not a subscriber and I was able to access it

Maybe it is because they offer so many free page views.* Do your cookies expire at the end of each session? If so - and if The Times do offer so many free page views - this might explain it.

* Hmm. I just tried an Incognito window - it did not work. So, the explanation is more complicated that I supposed. I always need to use the Archive to access article at The Times.

[TSC]

Tories apparently told to prepare for a May election from January

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1727597042027913267?

[PaulF]

Tories apparently told to prepare for a May election from January

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1727597042027913267?

She's not going to be elected as leader of the Tory party again.

[Red Beret]

so if they polls improve they'll go for a snap election? Doesn't really take a genius to work that out.

A lot hinges on what constitutes "improvement" though. Are they just trying to lose not as badly? Say they've closed the gap by five points by, perhaps, March? Do they stick or twist?

[Wabaloolah]

so if they polls improve they'll go for a snap election? Doesn't really take a genius to work that out.

A lot hinges on what constitutes "improvement" though. Are they just trying to lose not as badly? Say they've closed the gap by five points by, perhaps, March? Do they stick or twist?

If they get down to consistently being under 10 points, I think they'll go with a May/June election. Anything approaching where they are now, they'll cling on. Think in that example they'll go for one in October/November. The downside to that will be it's the same time as the US Elections

The worse the weather is, the lower the turnout will likely be too, not sure that's necessarily a positive for the Tories either

[Lynx the saucy mynx]

If they get down to consistently being under 10 points, I think they'll go with a May/June election. Anything approaching where they are now, they'll cling on. Think in that example they'll go for one in October/November. The downside to that will be it's the same time as the US Elections

The worse the weather is, the lower the turnout will likely be too, not sure that's necessarily a positive for the Tories either

Forgive my ignorance, what’s the downside of having a UK and US election at the same time?

[Red Beret]

Had a lovely dream last night, that the Tories finished the election with 57 seats on around 17% of the vote. Lib Dems had over 100 seats and Labour over 400.

Here's hoping!

[Dr. Beaker]

Had a lovely dream last night, that the Tories finished the election with 57 seats on around 17% of the vote. Lib Dems had over 100 seats and Labour over 400.

Here's hoping!

LibDems the official opposition and the tory leader's question at PMQ's being roundly ignored as everyone floods out of the chamber.

[andy07]

Had a lovely dream last night, that the Tories finished the election with 57 seats on around 17% of the vote. Lib Dems had over 100 seats and Labour over 400.

Here's hoping!

If a few of the more liberal minded potential tory voters actually committed to their beliefs rather than their upbringing then this might not be so far fetched.  Oh, and I had a lovely dream about Esther McVey, felt really good and really bad at the same time.  Sleeping with the enemy.

[PaulF]

Forgive my ignorance, what’s the downside of having a UK and US election at the same time?

Probably nothing more than the there aren't enough political commentators to go around.
I did see someone say the security services didn't like it. Though I have no idea why not.
My guess would be the market turmoil. One election either side of the pond will bring some, waves, two elections going against what the "markets" want could get ugly.
(I have no idea what the markets would want, I assume a Tory and Repub win)

--edit-- and possibly the Russians and Chinese can't interfere in both at once....

[Lusty]

Probably nothing more than the there aren't enough political commentators to go around.
I did see someone say the security services didn't like it. Though I have no idea why not.
My guess would be the market turmoil. One election either side of the pond will bring some, waves, two elections going against what the "markets" want could get ugly.
(I have no idea what the markets would want, I assume a Tory and Repub win)

--edit-- and possibly the Russians and Chinese can't interfere in both at once....

I think the main reason is that the Tories wouldn't want to be seen as equivilents to Trump's Republican party because it will spook what's left of their moderate voters.  Trump is still massively unpopular in the UK and the last thing they'll want is to be seen as the British version of him (even though that's what they are).  Starmer wouldn't suffer by comparisons to Biden in the same way.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

You have to be genuinely stupid to believe what these Tory fuckwits say.

According to them, we've never had it so good.

But Brexit and people voting Tory shows just how thick the UK population is.

[west_london_red]

Probably nothing more than the there aren't enough political commentators to go around.
I did see someone say the security services didn't like it. Though I have no idea why not.
My guess would be the market turmoil. One election either side of the pond will bring some, waves, two elections going against what the "markets" want could get ugly.
(I have no idea what the markets would want, I assume a Tory and Repub win)

--edit-- and possibly the Russians and Chinese can't interfere in both at once....

I suspect a Labour victory at the next election is already factored into market expectations, and with a moderate Labour Party and chancellor I can’t see it causing any ripples, if anything I think markets might welcome a Labour government just purely to have some grownups in charge of the country and a PM and Chancellor who should be in place for more then a year at a time, don’t underestimate the importance of competence and stability.

[Red Beret]

Aye. It's really important to remember that all Labour really has to do in government is be competent.

I realise the bar has been set incredibly low, but I' happy to have modest expectations at this point. A lot of damage has been done to the country, and it's not going to be easy to fix.

[Red Beret]

The next election is set to be the most unequal in 60 years thanks to a rising gap in voter turnout based on age, income, class, home ownership and ethnicity, a new study has found.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a centre-left thinktank, found that the turnout gap was negligible between social groups in the 1960s, but that it had grown by 2010 to 18 percentage points between the top set of earners – who are more likely to vote – and the bottom set.

It rises to a 23-point gap between homeowners – who were more likely to vote – and renters, and a 15-point gap between graduates and those who did not go to university. There are 28 points between those aged 61 and over who were more likely to vote than 18-24-year-olds.

The IPPR found that nine in every 10 people in the top third of the income distribution voted in the two most recent general elections, compared with only seven in 10 from the bottom third.

The bottom third of earners were about three times more likely to say it is not worth voting than the top third, while renters are also more than twice as likely as homeowners to say the same.

The study also analysed those who have been in contact with politicians, finding that one in three university graduates has directly contacted a politician, compared with one in seven people without degrees.

The study did not look at whether the Conservatives or Labour benefit most from the gap in turnout, although older voters are more likely to opt for the Tories than Labour.

Dr Parth Patel, a senior research fellow at the IPPR, said one of the consequences was that government policy was more attuned to the needs of the older, better-off and those with higher levels of education.

“There are real differences in who gets their way in our democracy. Policy is more responsive to preferences of the well-heeled than of the worse off, and people know this – but it seems to be a blind spot for most politicians,” he said.

“No matter who’s in power, our democratic machine needs rewiring. If people are once again to be authors of their own lives, and to feel secure, they must sense their influence in the collective decision-making endeavour that is democracy.”

Full article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/11/next-uk-election-set-to-be-most-unequal-in-60-years-study-finds