Author Topic: How many points would you expect in the next 5 league games - 2014/15 edition (Read 98443 times)

I-was-watching-it-on-Sky · « **Reply #520 on:** February 10, 2015, 07:11:20 pm »

Quote from: Reds Flag on February 10, 2015, 04:27:17 pm

I understand what you're trying to say, but looking at past seasons and seeing how many points we'd have needed for finishing 1 point ahead of 5th would only make sense in terms of CL qualification if we had always finished in the top 4. Otherwise, finish above the 5th placed team and there would still have been a further 4 teams above us and we still wouldn't have got CL. For example, here's the final league table from 2011/12:

1   Manchester City   89
2   Manchester United   89
3   Arsenal     70
4   Tottenham Hotspur   69
5   Newcastle United   65
6   Chelsea        64
7   Everton        56
8   Liverpool        52

That season, we finished 8th. 5th-placed Newcastle got 65 points. But if we'd done one point better than them and got 66 points that season there'd still have been 4 teams above us on points and we'd still have missed out on CL. So looking at the points totals for 5th isn't really a good predictor for what points total we might need to finish 4th.

No...you don't understand what he was saying.

Reds Flag · « **Reply #521 on:** February 10, 2015, 07:30:34 pm »

Quote from: I-was-there on February 10, 2015, 07:11:20 pm

No...you don't understand what he was saying.

How nice of you to take the time to clarify.

Suareznumber7 · « **Reply #522 on:** February 10, 2015, 07:31:04 pm »

Quote from: Reds Flag on February 10, 2015, 04:27:17 pm

I understand what you're trying to say, but looking at past seasons and seeing how many points we'd have needed for finishing 1 point ahead of 5th would only make sense in terms of CL qualification if we had always finished in the top 4. Otherwise, finish above the 5th placed team and there would still have been a further 4 teams above us and we still wouldn't have got CL. For example, here's the final league table from 2011/12:

1   Manchester City   89
2   Manchester United   89
3   Arsenal     70
4   Tottenham Hotspur   69
5   Newcastle United   65
6   Chelsea        64
7   Everton        56
8   Liverpool        52

That season, we finished 8th. 5th-placed Newcastle got 65 points. But if we'd done one point better than them and got 66 points that season there'd still have been 4 teams above us on points and we'd still have missed out on CL. So looking at the points totals for 5th isn't really a good predictor for what points total we might need to finish 4th.

Right, but all Tottenham needed was 66 points to get 4th. You're adding us into a current table and I'm taking the current 4th place team and seeing what the minimum point total for them would be to be ahead of 5th.

the_red_pill · « **Reply #523 on:** February 10, 2015, 07:36:06 pm »

Quote from: I-was-there on February 10, 2015, 07:11:20 pm

No...you don't understand what he was saying.

I dunno how you read that, but it's pretty clear what he said and how it translates. His EXACT words:

Quote

Any chance you have the point totals for 5th as well? That will give us a better idea of what we are up against as you only need to be 1 point better then 5th to get CL.

So:
ORIGINAL TABLE IN 2011/12- NEWCASTLE BEING THE 5TH PLACED TEAM:

--
1 Manchester City 89
2 Manchester United 89
3 Arsenal 70
4 Tottenham Hotspur 69
5 Newcastle United 65
6 Chelsea 64
7 Everton 56
8 Liverpool 52
--

APPLYING WHAT HE SAID ie: "You need to be 1 point better than 5th... to get CL":
--
1 Manchester City 89
2 Manchester United 89
3 Arsenal 70
4 Tottenham Hotspur 69
--------------------------------
5 Liverpool 66
6 Newcastle United 65
7 Chelsea 64
8 Everton 56
--

No CL. How is that not what he said? You can only understand what someone says by how they say it and that's what he said.

Reds Flag · « **Reply #524 on:** February 10, 2015, 07:41:26 pm »

Quote from: Suareznumber7 on February 10, 2015, 07:31:04 pm

Right, but all Tottenham needed was 66 points to get 4th. You're adding us into a current table and I'm taking the current 4th place team and seeing what the minimum point total for them would be to be ahead of 5th.

Well either way, in terms of this year looks like its going to be incredibly close. I just hope it doesn't come down to goal difference, because ours isn't up to much...

Reds Flag · « **Reply #525 on:** February 10, 2015, 07:49:05 pm »

Quote from: the_red_pill on February 10, 2015, 07:36:06 pm

snip

Thank you. Seeing the 5th place point totals and the gaps can be interesting and give us more data, but my point was that seeing the points totals for 5th place from past seasons don't help us understand how many points we would have needed to finish in the CL if we didn't finish in the top 4 in that season. Thus it's not a very reliable way of predicting how many points we might need this season.

Titi Camara · « **Reply #526 on:** February 11, 2015, 09:41:37 am »

Premier League points since Xmas:

20 - Liverpool
18 - Arsenal
16 - Spurs, S'ton
14 - Chelsea, Stoke
12 - Man Utd
11 - Palace
10 - Man City

ScouserAtHeart · « **Reply #527 on:** February 11, 2015, 09:45:31 am »

Quote from: Titi Camara on February 11, 2015, 09:41:37 am

Premier League points since Xmas:

20 - Liverpool
18 - Arsenal
16 - Spurs, S'ton
14 - Chelsea, Stoke
12 - Man Utd
11 - Palace
10 - Man City

Roy fuckin' Hodgson

Titi Camara · « **Reply #528 on:** February 11, 2015, 09:52:01 am »

Quote from: ScouserAtHeart on February 11, 2015, 09:45:31 am

Roy fuckin' Hodgson

Although I can't argue with the sentiment of your post I'm unsure of the connection? $:-\$

redk84 · « **Reply #529 on:** February 11, 2015, 11:14:11 am »

Quote from: Suareznumber7 on February 10, 2015, 02:15:45 pm

Any chance you have the point totals for 5th as well? That will give us a better idea of what we are up against as you only need to be 1 point better then 5th to get CL.

To answer your question.....

GW24 4th 5th

2013/2014 53- 79- 72
2012/2013 46- 73- 72
2011/2012 50- 69- 65
2010/2011 50- 68- 62
2009/2010 45- 70- 67
2008/2009 49- 72- 63

LondonRapLondon · « **Reply #530 on:** February 11, 2015, 12:12:23 pm »

I think 13 pts from the next five would see us bedded in the top four and in the driving seat for the final slog.

killer-heels · « **Reply #531 on:** February 11, 2015, 12:53:39 pm »

Quote from: LondonRapLondon on February 11, 2015, 12:12:23 pm

I think 13 pts from the next five would see us bedded in the top four and in the driving seat for the final slog.

If we get 13 points from the next 5 then we will definitely finish top four. That would be an amazing return if you consider the tough games and the cup commitments in between.

Personally i think 13 points is too tough an ask.

diegoLFC7 · « **Reply #532 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:05:48 pm »

The only way well get top 4 is by beating United, and Arsenal. The next game is quite a final too, Southampton away. That should tell us really where we are as a team.

Mr_Shane · « **Reply #533 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:07:33 pm »

Southampton away and City at home are next no rest for the wicked.

If we played City about now, I would be more confident of getting a result, but when we play them Toure and Bony will be back, that is going to be difficult. Although mid week European games might have a say. Southampton have the best record for goals conceded, so they are a different kettle of fish.

IF we do win those two, then its the calm before the storm before the double header of Man Utd at home, Arsenal away

Titi Camara · « **Reply #534 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:39:42 pm »

Quote from: killer_heels on February 11, 2015, 12:53:39 pm

Personally i think 13 points is too tough an ask.

Sun 22nd February
Southampton Away 16:15

Sun 1st March
Man City Home 12:00

Wed 4th March
Burnley Home 20:00

Mon 16th March
Swansea Away 20:00

Sun 22nd March
Manchester United Home 13:30

Looking at those I think Southampton away is probably our hardest game. They are the form team (behind us) in the league. The fact that they play an expansive, fast paced game like us (and aren't a bunch of bus parking cockney c*nts) will probably help us out but they really are playing well!

I think anything over 9 for the next five games has to be the target. 12 or more would be a mighty, mighty return!

killer-heels · « **Reply #535 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:42:34 pm »

^ We have to win all of our 6 homes games left this season. So 9 points is the minimum.

diegoLFC7 · « **Reply #536 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:43:24 pm »

Quote from: Titi Camara on February 11, 2015, 01:39:42 pm

Sun 22nd February
Southampton Away 16:15

Sun 1st March
Man City Home 12:00

Wed 4th March
Burnley Home 20:00

Mon 16th March
Swansea Away 20:00

Sun 22nd March
Manchester United Home 13:30

Looking at those I think Southampton away is probably our hardest game. They are the form team (behind us) in the league. The fact that they play an expansive, fast paced game like us (and aren't a bunch of bus parking cockney c*nts) will probably help us out but they really are playing well!

I think anything over 9 for the next five games has to be the target. 12 or more would be a mighty, mighty return!

I think all games are gonna be open ended, and no team will park the bus. Maybe Swansea will be the exception as they have nothing to play for but all the other teams we face are fighting for the league, and burnley for relegation. Im glad we have City, and United at home, the atmosphere will be key like the Chelsea game in the cup. We can definitely do it we just need to take our chances.

Miltonred · « **Reply #537 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:54:41 pm »

In our last ten games we have moved from 8th to 6th. In the same ten games Spurs moved from 10th to 5th. They garnered 1 more point than we did.

The top 6 teams are accumulating points at a very consistent rate over the last ten games, including Chelsea. Our run of form has kept is in contention, thankfully, but it has not rocketed us up the table into a CL spot.

The degree of difficulty of the next five games is much higher than each of the last two sets of five, however we do have an opportunity now (started last night actually) of taking points from the teams we need to pass to get into a CL spot.

Titi Camara · « **Reply #538 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:56:53 pm »

Quote from: killer_heels on February 11, 2015, 01:42:34 pm

^ We have to win all of our 6 homes games left this season. So 9 points is the minimum.

Massive kick in the shins that City have Toure back! They are so much better with him in the side...we really could've done with Lucas in there to snuff him out!

Mr_Shane · « **Reply #539 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:58:12 pm »

After Arsenal away (which is right after Man Utd), we would have a much better idea of where we stand. We would have played all the other teams with aspirations for top 4 and can no longer take points off them. However, they can still take points off each other

Titi Camara · « **Reply #540 on:** February 11, 2015, 01:59:33 pm »

Quote from: Miltonred on February 11, 2015, 01:54:41 pm

In our last ten games we have moved from 8th to 6th. In the same ten games Spurs moved from 10th to 5th. They garnered 1 more point than we did.

The top 6 teams are accumulating points at a very consistent rate over the last ten games, including Chelsea. Our run of form has kept is in contention, thankfully, but it has not rocketed us up the table into a CL spot.

The degree of difficulty of the next five games is much higher than each of the last two sets of five, however we do have an opportunity now (started last night actually) of taking points from the teams we need to pass to get into a CL spot.

Those two points go hand in hand. The reason we haven't moved up is because we haven't been taking points of those above us.....until now!
These games against Southampton, City, United (EDIT: And Arsenal) are an opportunity to really move up the table...I can't fucking wait!

Titi Camara · « **Reply #541 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:01:16 pm »

Quote from: Mr_Shane on February 11, 2015, 01:58:12 pm

After Arsenal away (which is right after Man Utd), we would have a much better idea of where we stand. We would have played all the other teams with aspirations for top 4 and can no longer take points off them. However, they can still take points off each other

Absolutely. The only team we play above us after that will be Chelsea and we ain't leapfrogging them

Mighty_Red · « **Reply #542 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:05:21 pm »

Quote from: Miltonred on February 11, 2015, 01:54:41 pm

Our run of form has kept is in contention, thankfully, but it has not rocketed us up the table into a CL spot.

That's more a reflection on how tight it is now with only a few points separating 3rd from 7th. I've never been worried out our league position, just the number of points behind. I would rather be in 7th 3pts behind Soton (max 6 after tonight) than be in 5th, 10points adrift.

Don't forget that we were cut adrift after the Utd & Arsenal games but we have pulled it back despite not quite being in dominant form. We are close to hitting that kind of form, and it should be enough if we do.

Mr_Shane · « **Reply #543 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:07:00 pm »

From here on in at least one of them sides will be dropping points every round of fixtures. As long as its not us, we will slowly but surely be climbing up the table

lionel_messias · « **Reply #544 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:35:17 pm »

We have to beat our direct rivals, and watch them take points off each other, or lose points to lower teams. Southampton will drop some points I predict and Man United are about to unravel a bit. Obviously we will neither beat everybody nor win all our home games. I think a point at Southampton would probably be alright. I think we will need to beat United at home and the City game at Anfield could be important to win, too.

Beating Southampton at their place would show that we really are in VERY good shape indeed.

Caston · « **Reply #545 on:** February 11, 2015, 02:37:46 pm »

Quote from: lionel_messias on February 11, 2015, 02:35:17 pm

We have to beat our direct rivals, and watch them take points off each other, or lose points to lower teams. Southampton will drop some points I predict and Man United are about to unravel a bit. Obviously we will neither beat everybody nor win all our home games. I think a point at Southampton would probably be alright. I think we will need to beat United at home and the City game at Anfield could be important to win, too.

Beating Southampton at their place would show that we really are in VERY good shape indeed.

Their home form has stuttered a bit lately, 2 wins in their last 6 at home, losses to City United and Swansea and a draw with Chelsea. We can win if we are at our best

wemmick · « **Reply #546 on:** February 11, 2015, 03:54:07 pm »

Love how ultra competitive our next six games will be. Can only be good for the young players' development. I reckon beating Burnley and Utd at home, winning away to Swansea and Southampton, while drawing with City and Arsenal, will be enough to see up move a spot or two. Utd's away form is on a knife's edge right now. They are drawing a lot. A loss to us might well push them over the edge given their tough remaining schedule. Southampton's home form has also been very inconsistent of late. Arsenal's home form is stellar, so I reckon it's best not to lose there. Same with City's away form. 14/18 wouldn't be bad haul. 2.33 points per game.

Mr_Shane · « **Reply #547 on:** February 11, 2015, 04:04:37 pm »

I think Southampton away is winnable. They do not score a lot, but they do not concede a lot too, I am confident that we can create chances, but we need to take our chances when they come,

Zephyr · « **Reply #548 on:** February 11, 2015, 04:31:45 pm »

Sturridge.

Quote from: Mr_Shane on February 11, 2015, 04:04:37 pm

I think Southampton away is winnable. They do not score a lot, but they do not concede a lot too, I am confident that we can create chances, but we need to take our chances when they come,

myrlas · « **Reply #549 on:** February 11, 2015, 06:14:37 pm »

It might have been mentioned before, but what is the fewest goals a top 4 team has scored after 38 games ?

B0151? · « **Reply #550 on:** February 11, 2015, 06:22:58 pm »

Not really a thread for this but in Rodgers tenure so far, we've only lost 4 times in the second half of the season. That's out of 43 games. Saw it on Twitter. Pretty impressive. You can't really ignore the title charge of last season when the previous year showed drastic improvement in the second half too.

Messiah · « **Reply #551 on:** February 11, 2015, 06:32:47 pm »

Quote from: myrlas on February 11, 2015, 06:14:37 pm

It might have been mentioned before, but what is the fewest goals a top 4 team has scored after 38 games ?

Since PL got 4 CL spots, the lowest goals scored by a top 4 team was 45 by Everton when they got 4th with a negative goal difference in 04-05.

Other than that the lowest was us in 03-04 when we scored 55 goals.

Kopenhagen · « **Reply #552 on:** February 11, 2015, 06:39:38 pm »

Quote from: Titi Camara on February 11, 2015, 01:39:42 pm

Sun 22nd February
Southampton Away 16:15

Sun 1st March
Man City Home 12:00

Wed 4th March
Burnley Home 20:00

Mon 16th March
Swansea Away 20:00

Sun 22nd March
Manchester United Home 13:30

Looking at those I think Southampton away is probably our hardest game. They are the form team (behind us) in the league. The fact that they play an expansive, fast paced game like us (and aren't a bunch of bus parking cockney c*nts) will probably help us out but they really are playing well!

I think anything over 9 for the next five games has to be the target. 12 or more would be a mighty, mighty return!

Still think City (H) is the most difficult there. I fancy us to beat the rest, even if they perform to their potential. On paper I think we're better than the rest, though if City turn up I don't think our best will be good enough.

SamAteTheRedAcid · « **Reply #553 on:** February 11, 2015, 07:17:19 pm »

Quote from: Messiah on February 11, 2015, 06:32:47 pm

Since PL got 4 CL spots, the lowest goals scored by a top 4 team was 45 by Everton when they got 4th with a negative goal difference in 04-05.

Dat Moyes...record breaker

macca888 · « **Reply #554 on:** February 11, 2015, 07:18:43 pm »

exiledintheUSA · « **Reply #555 on:** February 11, 2015, 07:19:58 pm »

Quote from: Kopenhagen on February 11, 2015, 06:39:38 pm

Still think City (H) is the most difficult there. I fancy us to beat the rest, even if they perform to their potential. On paper I think we're better than the rest, though if City turn up I don't think our best will be good enough.

I honestly think we'll get 13 points, not sure if the draw is at home to City or away at Southampton though.

If we do get 13 points, we'll be looking at higher than 4th place too.

SamAteTheRedAcid · « **Reply #556 on:** February 11, 2015, 07:24:07 pm »

Quote from: macca888 on February 11, 2015, 07:18:43 pm

15.

Miserable git. I'm going for 43. I'm calling out Pythagoras and his chums for dodgy sums. I'm ready to bend the laws of mathematics. The league can still be ours...

exiledintheUSA · « **Reply #557 on:** February 11, 2015, 07:26:41 pm »

Quote from: SamAteTheRedAcid on February 11, 2015, 07:24:07 pm

Miserable git. I'm going for 43. I'm calling out Pythagoras and his chums for dodgy sums. I'm ready to bend the laws of mathematics. The league can still be ours...

No chance, too many players are cup tied.

Gods_Left_Boot · « **Reply #558 on:** February 11, 2015, 07:44:41 pm »

14 from the next 6 (including arsenal away) would be a brilliant return, and I dont think we can settle for a lot less than that. We can afford an extra draw, maybe, but we simply can't lose any of those. That'll be a tough ask, but if we make it we'll be in the drivers seat for a CL spot.

Zoomers · « **Reply #559 on:** February 15, 2015, 05:49:01 pm »

Our upcoming games are crazy.... The only relatively easy ones would be burnley and maybe swansea but all the rest are a true test of our character.

Beşiktaş (H)
Southampton (A)
Beşiktaş (A)
Man City (H)
Burnley (H)
Swansea (A)
Man United (H)