Topic: How many points would you expect in the next 5 league games - 2014/15 edition

[LondonRapLondon]

15.

Just need another 12, with Sturridge back I wouldnt  rule it out

[artanis]

45 points to play for.
Getting 30 out of 45 or 2 per game will not work because 68 does not make 4th spot.
Likely 72 or 73 will be enough. So clearly we can drop at most 9-10 more points.
Feeling somewhat optimistic.
Hoping for 12 points from the next 15 and 13 would be heaven.

[PhaseOfPlay]

45 points to play for.
Getting 30 out of 45 or 2 per game will not work because 68 does not make 4th spot.
Likely 72 or 73 will be enough. So clearly we can drop at most 9-10 more points.
Feeling somewhat optimistic.
Hoping for 12 points from the next 15 and 13 would be heaven.

We don't know that yet. The 11 year average for top four is 69 points. 30 out of 45 points should put us in the mix going into the last game.

[Zoomers]

The next few games are gonna define our chances of top 4.

[Didi_ram]

Let's look at it this way. Spurs and Arsenal play each other. They might take points off each other. Spurs might beat Arsenal. And then we play Spurs and Southampton. If all results go our way, we could be ahead of Spurs, and one behind Southampton and Arsenal, by the time the Southampton game is over.
We are in good form. Our defence is solid. 6 goals in 10 games conceded, and 2 of those down to a massive massive cock up vs Leicester. Our defence right now is better than last season.
15 points out of 15 might just about put us in the top 4 at the moment. We need atleast 12. Let's mean business now.

[MNAA]

Everton, Tottenham, Southampton and Man City - what a great sequence of games ahead of us. The best part is - we are in such great form and after giving Chelsea a real fright over two legs and with Sturridge on the bench, neither of them are looking forward to facing us. We should be brimming with confidence

[Qston]

The next few games are gonna define our chances of top 4.

Definitely. Really tough month and if we can come out of it without any defeats and picking up wins against Everton, Spurs and Southampton then top 4 is very much on. United are the team that I think look vulnerable

[theMilkman]

win the next 5 and we'll probably be in the top 4, we can do this.

[thisyearisouryear]

After running a lot of numbers, using all concepts of my recently finished data science course, applying all kinds of trend analyses and correlating our season's form with our expected line-up  - below are the definitive point projections for next 5 games:

West Ham (H): 3 CHECK
Everton (A): 3
Spurs (H): 3
Southampton (A): 3
Man CIty (H): 3

Expected Total: 15
Std Dev. - NIL

Round 1 Updates^
Current Accuracy - 100%
Expected Accuracy - 100%

Probably our most crucial run so far in the season. BRING IT ON!

[Caffeine]

I do see us beating Spurs and Everton, but expect draws in the other two. That should be a good enough return at this stage I think, based on zero statistical analysis and my hunch that as long as we don't lose against any of the teams above us, we should be alright.

[killer-heels]

If we beat Everton and Spurs then I reckon we will beat the Saints and get at least a draw against Man City. The Everton and Spurs game are only 3 days apart and you would think winning those 2 games would be as big a lift as we could get.

[jordyball10]

Everton - 3

Spurs - 3

Saints - 1

Man City - 1

[Michel]

Swansea won at Southampton,we surely can do the same.

[DyingAtheist]

Everton - 3
Spurs - 3
Saints - 1
City - 1

I'd take that now, gets 4 tough games out of the way without dropping below 2 points a game. Everton are playing much better lately, but Southampton are looking more vulnerable and City aren't as good as people think. Spurs looking good too.

[Mr_Shane]

Southampton are defensively solid, but attacking wise, their goals have been inflated by that 8-0 drubbing of Sunderland. We still need to be careful of course, but there is no reason we can't win, we just need to take our chances when they come

[bigbear]

Southampton are defensively solid, but attacking wise, their goals have been inflated by that 8-0 drubbing of Sunderland. We still need to be careful of course, but there is no reason we can't win, we just need to take our chances when they come

I don't think Southampton will get top 4, when it comes down to it they are lacking real depth up front and will have days like Sunday when they drop points against very ordinary sides. That said, by the time we get to play them they could well have their best 2 players back (Schneiderlein and Alderwield) and Wanyama too so they will be much stronger down the spine. However, they won't get top 4 and will be lucky to get in top 6.

Arsenal are nailed on and will get third. The only question for me is whether it's us or United for 4th.

If we beat Everton I will fancy us strongly as that will bounce us into Spurs and I can see United dropping points at West Ham with Spurs/Arsenal the day before taking its toll somewhere.

The reason Everton is so key is that we have a number of tricky aways left and we need to nail them like we did last year at Soton and Man Utd. We are going to struggle to get much from Chelsea or Arsenal away (2 draws would be great) so we have to be picking off these other 'difficultish' aways and take maximum points otherwise 71-75 points is very quickly going to start disappearing into fantasy.

[Hank Scorpio]

Next 6 games are:

Spurs (h)
Soton (a)
Man City (h)
Swansea (a)
United (h)
Arsenal (a)

Need to be aiming for 12 from the 18 points available to be in with a shot of top 4.  It's going to be difficult.  But after that we have a run of fixtures where we can string successive wins together. 

Otherwise we may as well focus on the Europa League as an avenue into the CL.

[ScouserAtHeart]

Next 6 games are:

Spurs (h)
Soton (a)
Man City (h)
Swansea (a)
United (h)
Arsenal (a)

Need to be aiming for 12 from the 18 points available to be in with a shot of top 4.  It's going to be difficult.  But after that we have a run of fixtures where we can string successive wins together. 

Otherwise we may as well focus on the Europa League as an avenue into the CL.

Realistically I can only see us picking up 6-7 points out of those 18 unfortunately, unless we play like we played Chelsea every game

[redk84]

Spurs (h)                  - 3
Soton (a)                  - 1
Man City (h)             - 3
Swansea (a)             - 1
United (h)                - 3
Arsenal (a)               - 0

My prediction...

11 points would be ok......anything higher would be great. Anything lower than would not

[redk84]

Villa (a) - 3
*West Ham (h) - 3
Everton (a) - 1
Spurs (h) - 3
*Southampton (a) - 0

* Matches following a cup game

shit just saw this from before...on point so far 

ive changed the southampton loss to a draw now tho!

[Shaved Crossbar]

^Europa League is probably our best shot right now.

To reach 70 points, United and Soton only need 8 wins from 14, and we need 10.

We can only afford to drop points in 4 games, and we have a list that includes Spurs, United, City at home; Chelsea, Arsenal and Soton away. At the base minimum, we'd have to win 2 of those games and then get a 100% record against the teams below us. Is it within us to win 8/8 against the smaller clubs? No, imo.

We're relying on immense form or a big collective fuck up from those ahead of us.

[Michel]

Next 6 games are:

Spurs (h)
Soton (a)
Man City (h)
Swansea (a)
United (h)
Arsenal (a)

Need to be aiming for 12 from the 18 points available to be in with a shot of top 4.  It's going to be difficult.  But after that we have a run of fixtures where we can string successive wins together. 

Otherwise we may as well focus on the Europa League as an avenue into the CL.

That's a very very tough set of games.And we will have cup and Europa League games too.
I think it will be 9 or 10 points.

[goalspaytherent]

Next 6 games are:

Spurs (h)
Soton (a)
Man City (h)
Swansea (a)
United (h)
Arsenal (a)

Need to be aiming for 12 from the 18 points available to be in with a shot of top 4.  It's going to be difficult.  But after that we have a run of fixtures where we can string successive wins together. 

Otherwise we may as well focus on the Europa League as an avenue into the CL.

We need to go on a run like we did last year .......shit that's a tough run of games !

[TheShanklyGates]

Any less than 14 points from the next 6 games means top four isn't going happen in my opinion. Very tough run of games.

[Hank Scorpio]

Just for the record I don't think 3rd will get more than 75 points this season. 

70 points could well get 4th place, depending on what other teams do.

You get the feeling we have given ourselves too much to do with our early season results.  But 31 points from 42 available is achievable.  We'll see.

[killer-heels]

I said before January following our draw to Arsenal that we had left ourselves too much to do and I still believe that is the case. Its just a really big ask now to claw back that many points and on so many sides on its own without taking into account injuries and the fact that we have games all over the place.

[killer-heels]

Just for the record I don't think 3rd will get more than 75 points this season. 

70 points could well get 4th place, depending on what other teams do.

You get the feeling we have given ourselves too much to do with our early season results.  But 31 points from 42 available is achievable.  We'll see.

10 wins out of 14 is some ask though.

[Hank Scorpio]

10 wins out of 14 is some ask though.

Yeah it is. 

[killer-heels]

Yeah it is. 

If we fail to beat Spurs and Southampton this week and next then its pretty much us having to win every single game left which quite frankly isnt going to happen. I reckon we will start resting players for the Europa in that case.

[Hank Scorpio]

If we fail to beat Spurs and Southampton this week and next then its pretty much us having to win every single game left which quite frankly isnt going to happen. I reckon we will start resting players for the Europa in that case.

I suppose that's the silver lining here.  Things will become clear pretty soon.  So we can avoid spreading ourselves too thin.

[Reds Flag]

Let's have a go at this.

West Ham (H) - West Ham are good but have gone a bit off the boil. Also we'll be out for a bit of revenge. 3 points.
Everton (A) - The derby always seems to be a leveller, but whereas we are definitely on the up, Everton are still treading water. 3 morale-boosting points.
Spurs (H) - We've had too many fantastic days against Spurs lately, that run's bound to come to an end soon. 1 point.
Southampton (A) - Southampton are going all the way. Could be a very tense game. 1 point.
Man City (H) - We'll be fired up for this like we were for the LC semi, and Man City aren't as good as Chelsea. 3 points.

So 11 points. I'd bite your hand off for 11 points from the next 5 games though, so perhaps I'm being a little overoptimistic overall...

I'm going to swap my predicted Everton and Spurs results, and stick with 11 points. Come on you Reds...

[lionel_messias]

Seems we could easily draw against both Southampton and Man City in this run. Imperative that we beat Spurs. Tonight's match is the difference maker I think.

[Michel]

We need to win both today and against Southampton if we don't want to see our chances for top 4 diminish further.

[redk84]

One quick look at things over recent years.....

(at this point in the season)-(final points) tally for 4th

2013/2014        53-79
2012/2013        46-73
2011/2012        50-69
2010/2011        50-68
2009/2010        45-70
2008/2009        49-72

Next 3 weeks will give us clarity on which competition we should be concentrating most for a CL spot for sure.....

so we're on 39, 42 points left.....

Need about 30-33 for a total 69-72 points? Tough ask! Can only drop 9-12 points...

[Michel]

2013/2014        53-79
2012/2013        46-73
2011/2012        50-69
2010/2011        50-68
2009/2010        45-70
2008/2009        49-72



so we're on 39

That's very telling about how difficult the task ahead of us is.

[Reds Flag]

One quick look at things over recent years.....

(at this point in the season)-(final points) tally for 4th

2013/2014        53-79
2012/2013        46-73
2011/2012        50-69
2010/2011        50-68
2009/2010        45-70
2008/2009        49-72

Next 3 weeks will give us clarity on which competition we should be concentrating most for a CL spot for sure.....

so we're on 39, 42 points left.....

Need about 30-33 for a total 69-72 points? Tough ask! Can only drop 9-12 points...

This also shows how reliant we are on the form of the teams above us, whether we like it or not. If the target points for 4th only increases by 18 (as in 2010/11) or 19 (as in 2011/12) from now til the end of the season, then that gives us a very attainable target of needing 23-24 points out of 42 to make it (ignoring goal difference for now). If that target increases by 26 in the run-in though, as it did last year, that leaves us needing 31/42 points to make it, which I think we'll really struggle to get with the difficulty of several of the fixtures ahead of us. We could come out with a respectable set of results from the next 3 games yet still have dropped another 4 points.

[Suareznumber7]

One quick look at things over recent years.....

(at this point in the season)-(final points) tally for 4th

2013/2014        53-79
2012/2013        46-73
2011/2012        50-69
2010/2011        50-68
2009/2010        45-70
2008/2009        49-72

Next 3 weeks will give us clarity on which competition we should be concentrating most for a CL spot for sure.....

so we're on 39, 42 points left.....

Need about 30-33 for a total 69-72 points? Tough ask! Can only drop 9-12 points...

Any chance you have the point totals for 5th as well?  That will give us a better idea of what we are up against as you only need to be 1 point better then 5th to get CL. 

[Reds Flag]

Any chance you have the point totals for 5th as well?  That will give us a better idea of what we are up against as you only need to be 1 point better then 5th to get CL.

That doesn't work, because in that case you'd only be displacing the 5th placed team, not the 4th placed team. Imagine if one season Arsenal finished 4th with 71 points, Spurs 5th with 67 and us 6th with 66 - if we'd got one more point than 5th (ie 68) that season we'd have finished, er, 5th.

[Suareznumber7]

That doesn't work, because in that case you'd only be displacing the 5th placed team, not the 4th placed team. Imagine if one season Arsenal finished 4th with 71 points, Spurs 5th with 67 and us 6th with 66 - if we'd got one more point than 5th (ie 68) that season we'd have finished, er, 5th.

You are taking my post wrong I think.  In your example, forget about the team in 6th, all Arsenal would need to finish 4th is 68.  We're talking about what it will take to get 4th, which is simply 1 point better than 5th. 

[Reds Flag]

You are taking my post wrong I think.  In your example, forget about the team in 6th, all Arsenal would need to finish 4th is 68.  We're talking about what it will take to get 4th, which is simply 1 point better than 5th.

I understand what you're trying to say, but looking at past seasons and seeing how many points we'd have needed for finishing 1 point ahead of 5th would only make sense in terms of CL qualification if we had always finished in the top 4. Otherwise, finish above the 5th placed team and there would still have been a further 4 teams above us and we still wouldn't have got CL. For example, here's the final league table from 2011/12:

1   Manchester City   89   
2   Manchester United   89
3   Arsenal                   70
4   Tottenham Hotspur   69   
5   Newcastle United   65
6   Chelsea              64   
7   Everton              56
8   Liverpool              52

That season, we finished 8th. 5th-placed Newcastle got 65 points. But if we'd done one point better than them and got 66 points that season there'd still have been 4 teams above us on points and we'd still have missed out on CL. So looking at the points totals for 5th isn't really a good predictor for what points total we might need to finish 4th.