Topic: Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance

[Halcyon Lissome]

Lucas and Gerrard as a pairing lack so many of the basic qualities you want from a midfield at this level.

Pace - no
Energy - no
Stamina - no
Power - no
Positioning - no
Off the ball - no
ability to function against pressing, energetic sides - no (Southampton and Arsenal performances are the norm when we come against those).

Lucas pre-injury and Gerrard 5 years ago, maybe.

They're not good on the ground or in the air, apart from that they're great.

[Fromola]

I think you would find a Gerrard Allen/Gerrard Henderson pairing even worse.

Probably because there's no DM. Allen's position is where Gerrard plays so it's hard to fit them both in. Henderson could play that role as well (probably his more natural role) but has been playing in front. We only have Lucas who can play the role he's playing in. Allen could do it to a point but not next to Gerrard unless we're playing no marks at Anfield.

[Fowllah]

We're becoming less and less dependent on him being the playmaker and fulcrum in midfield as Henderson comes into his own, so I see Gerrard being utilised further up field, especially next year if we're in Europe and going strong in every competition, when we'll need to rotate. I think we'll be making one or two CM signings this year as well which could see Gerrard pushed out a bit but we'll be gaining more with him being rotated in a more attacking role IMO. The challenge now could be for him to keep a place further up field where he still has a lot to offer.

[-Daws-]

We're becoming less and less dependent on him being the playmaker and fulcrum in midfield as Henderson comes into his own, so I see Gerrard being utilised further up field, especially next year if we're in Europe and going strong in every competition, when we'll need to rotate. I think we'll be making one or two CM signings this year as well which could see Gerrard pushed out a bit but we'll be gaining more with him being rotated in a more attacking role IMO. The challenge now could be for him to keep a place further up field where he still has a lot to offer.

I've always preferred the idea of Gerrard higher up the pitch because of his finishing ability.

[Fromola]

I've always preferred the idea of Gerrard higher up the pitch because of his finishing ability.

And he still scares defenders.

[BabuYagu]

I've always preferred the idea of Gerrard higher up the pitch because of his finishing ability.

I agree. The only thing I would say against that is that Gerrard seems very unwilling to put much behind his shots these days. Against West Ham is the first time I have seen him do so in recent times and his hammy went. I wonder if it is one of the changes the medical department advised him to prolongue his career?

[steveeastend]

I agree. The only thing I would say against that is that Gerrard seems very unwilling to put much behind his shots these days. Against West Ham is the first time I have seen him do so in recent times and his hammy went. I wonder if it is one of the changes the medical department advised him to prolongue his career?

That's his age, nothing else. It happens to every player at some point in his career, nothing to do with trying to stretch his career or being unwilling...

[Draex]

Probably because there's no DM. Allen's position is where Gerrard plays so it's hard to fit them both in. Henderson could play that role as well (probably his more natural role) but has been playing in front. We only have Lucas who can play the role he's playing in. Allen could do it to a point but not next to Gerrard unless we're playing no marks at Anfield.

It's also pretty apparant that Gerrard doesn't really stick to the game plan - it's why Lucas or Allen when either play the DM position without Gerrard they look a much better player as they have a zone to control and a job to do.. Gerrard still tries to do too much, he needs to trust Rodgers and his tactics and especially trust the players around him instead of going all Roy of the Rovers.

For me our strongest 3 is either Lucas, Allen, Henderson or Gerrard, Allen, Henderson (with Gerrard and Lucas both playing the pivot at the back and simply holding position) Allen and Henderson are the two best we have for the 2 in the 1/2, they can press all game, tackle, pass, have the energy to get up in attack and back in defense etc. They work really well as a pair and something we need to see more of, for all I love Lucas for me the one area we need an upgrade is in the holding role - someone with more pace and a bigger presence, that would be an excellent multipler in giving Henderson and Allen a better platform to control the game.

[GrkStav]

It's Lucas's birthday today, 27 years young! Happy Birthday, Lucas!

[Homo rubrum]

It's Lucas's birthday today, 27 years young! Happy Birthday, Lucas!

Yeah, but how many days is that?  Has he aged better or worse on years with a leap day?  Does covering for Gerrard age him more than sitting behind Henderson and Allen?  Have opponents been aging at a better or worse rate (the relativity of experiential time and the extra long flights at high speed to Brazil obviously having a more significant impact on the aging process than the travels of continentally-based players with their concomitantly shorter flights)? 

Come on man, everyone knows birthdays correlates poorly with age 

(great thread, keep giving me reading material everyone)

[jdpapa3]

http://parismatches.com/2014/01/09/match-projections-for-week-21-of-the-english-premier-league/#more-1285

Carson Cistulli describes his method here:

Regarding these projections, what I’ve done is to estimate an “average” final score for each match based on an expected goals formula that accounts for each club’s shot and possession figures this season — and have made a further adjustment to account for league-specific home-field advantage. That average final score established, I’ve used Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the relevant clubs. The % symbol in the table represents the probability of the result in question.

The only area where he and I diverge is that Shots on Target seem to carry equal weight from inside and outside of the box in his projections.

[ElstonGunn]

http://parismatches.com/2014/01/09/match-projections-for-week-21-of-the-english-premier-league/#more-1285

Carson Cistulli describes his method here:
The only area where he and I diverge is that Shots on Target seem to carry equal weight from inside and outside of the box in his projections.

Very cool! Hadn't seen this. The big difference I see here is that he incorporates possession into the calculation. I'm always very skeptical of how important possession is, so I wonder if there's any evidence that incorporating possession into the calculation improves accuracy over and above just the shot data.

[ElstonGunn]

Evidence either that our early problems in the second half were random or that periodization is actually a thing (5th most second half goals):



Via @BassTunedToRed

[Miltonred]

I have said this for years, and got slated by my mates for saying it, so am expecting an onslaught here too!

Stevie has been as much of a problem for us as he has been our saviour.....(stand back and wait for the beatings!)


Here's why.  He has no clearly defined position, and when put in a position he will go wherever he wants or feels he can do damage.  This is fine if you are in a team full of quality, where its not going to matter much, because other players are good enough to cover for you, but he has not been in a team like that realistically since Benitez 2008/9.

Even Benitez would play him wide right, to try and minimise the impact of him going missing from the centre but still give him an attacking role.
For England he has been played all over the place, because he hasn't been able to clearly define a position that he "owns" and nobody can shake him from.

Playing him with Lucas, and having him hold his position a little more is a lesson for Stevie, but at certain moments he throws it out the window, and goes all Roy of the Rovers on us.

Recall Rafa subbing him in a derby? "Sometimes you have to play with your head not your heart."

Don't get me wrong I love Stevie, and would happily argue that he is one of the greatest players ever to wear the shirt, but his lack of positional certainty has been a problem.

[jdpapa3]

I'm always very skeptical of how important possession is, so I wonder if there's any evidence that incorporating possession into the calculation improves accuracy over and above just the shot data.

Me as well. Atletico Madrid is showing very strong shot numbers and goals for/allowed this year with <50% possession. I think I'd have to see some sort of weighting system of the area of possession(thirds or quarters) to fully jump on board with any projection system that includes possession. For instance, final 1/3 possession would have more value than own third.

As for the 2nd half being weak for us...I tend to think that our squad players have simply not been good enough. Our bench options have been Aspas, Moses, Alberto in those crucial attacking positions. Even one more 1st XI caliber signing that can play somewhere in an advanced MF role fortifies that drastically. Problem there is finding the value. I get the impression the committee set out to find the next Michu, and Aspas hasn't been that.

[Coolie High]

I have said this for years, and got slated by my mates for saying it, so am expecting an onslaught here too!

Stevie has been as much of a problem for us as he has been our saviour.....(stand back and wait for the beatings!)


Here's why.  He has no clearly defined position, and when put in a position he will go wherever he wants or feels he can do damage.  This is fine if you are in a team full of quality, where its not going to matter much, because other players are good enough to cover for you, but he has not been in a team like that realistically since Benitez 2008/9.

Even Benitez would play him wide right, to try and minimise the impact of him going missing from the centre but still give him an attacking role.
For England he has been played all over the place, because he hasn't been able to clearly define a position that he "owns" and nobody can shake him from.

Playing him with Lucas, and having him hold his position a little more is a lesson for Stevie, but at certain moments he throws it out the window, and goes all Roy of the Rovers on us.Recall Rafa subbing him in a derby? "Sometimes you have to play with your head not your heart."

Don't get me wrong I love Stevie, and would happily argue that he is one of the greatest players ever to wear the shirt, but his lack of positional certainty has been a problem.

What do you mean by this and this is directed to Draex as well, Rodgers clearly stated that he still wants Gerrard to push forward at times even when he is playing as a DM alongside Lucas?

[Miltonred]

Late in games when we are pushing, he has a tendency to throw the plan out of the window, hold onto the ball longer, make longer passes, and try to be all over the pitch. As a fan we love it, and it can sometimes look like he is the only player in the team really trying, but it is one thing going for it when something is on, another thing pushing when it isn't, that's when we need to stick to the plan, move the ball around an work an opening.

I am not saying he does it all the time, and I defo don't want to get into a slagging session on Stevie, but its there and its hurt him more than  a few times. (Many would argue it has helped him and the team in equal measure, they might be right.)

[Draex]

What do you mean by this and this is directed to Draex as well, Rodgers clearly stated that he still wants Gerrard to push forward at times even when he is playing as a DM alongside Lucas?

He can't get forward and then get back to cover, the only way he can push forward is if he has 2 players cleaning up behind him - we hardly play like that and it ends up with Lucas running around like a blue assed fly trying to cover too big an area because Gerrard is marooned up field. As Elston has statistically pointed out when Lucas and Gerrard play together we conceed more shots on target and take less shots ourselves..

Gerrard will also play the risk ball when he needs to play a percentage one and keep possession, certainly not all the time but I guess as a captain he tries to take on the responsibility, whether he makes the right choice is another matter.

[Halcyon Lissome]

Late in games when we are pushing, he has a tendency to throw the plan out of the window, hold onto the ball longer, make longer passes, and try to be all over the pitch. As a fan we love it, and it can sometimes look like he is the only player in the team really trying, but it is one thing going for it when something is on, another thing pushing when it isn't, that's when we need to stick to the plan, move the ball around an work an opening.

I am not saying he does it all the time, and I defo don't want to get into a slagging session on Stevie, but its there and its hurt him more than  a few times. (Many would argue it has helped him and the team in equal measure, they might be right.)

These perceptions just won't die. Even if he becomes Xavi and Busquets rolled into one; on the occasion he misplaces a long ball or is caught out of position the lazy generalisations start again. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy with no real comparative quality. Stevie in his early to mid-20s could be accused of trying to hard, but it's been a long time since then and he has been much more disciplined in the latter stage of his career. Moreover, he rarely does anything the manager hasn't instructed him to do. Whenever he plays as the sole holder he's a different player, but right now he's still considered good enough to press forward most of the time. I having a sneaking suspicion that a lot of the people who criticise him for going forward will love him when he finally puts that part of his game to bed. I see that as sad - it's become taken for granted just how good or valuable it is to have that kind of player.

Anyway, let's stick to the OP's idea that we argue about the two midfielders with an emphasis on stats. Otherwise, this becomes another thread for a few people with never-ending agendas to empty their bile.

[Lenin.]

Anyway, let's stick to the OP's idea that we argue about the two midfielders with an emphasis on stats. Otherwise, this becomes another thread for a few people with never-ending agendas to empty their bile.

To be honest, apart from the last couple of posts, I dont see what this thread has to do with Gerrard/Lucas specifically. Isn't it just an LFC stats thread?

[nocturnalvin]

Elston, does it mean that a Lucas/Gerrard pairing allow more shots at our goal ?

[TSC]

Elston, does it mean that a Lucas/Gerrard pairing allow more shots at our goal ?

Why would this matter assuming 'shots' are long range, or from outside the area?  How many has Mignolet conceded from shots outside the area anyway?  There was one recently v City which was goalkeeping error.  And one v Arsenal.  Don't recall any more off the top of my head.  He's a good shot stopper generally.  Less confident at coming off the line and dealing with high balls.  I'd be more concerned with defending set pieces as opposed to looking at stats re shots at goal.

[LFC when it suits]

Lucas and Gerrard as a pairing lack so many of the basic qualities you want from a midfield at this level.

Pace - no
Energy - no
Stamina - no
Power - no
Positioning - no
Off the ball - no
ability to function against pressing, energetic sides - no (Southampton and Arsenal performances are the norm when we come against those).

Lucas pre-injury and Gerrard 5 years ago, maybe.

Lucas still has excellent positioning to be honest.  However, he does require a harrier besides him who can pressure opponents. If he has that, then Lucas is excellent positionally and closing down space and breaking down attacks.


While both Lucas and Gerrard have their strengths, they lack the perfect balance of strengths to compliment each other. What Lucas lacks, Gerrard doesn't make up for and what Gerrard lacks, Lucas doesn't make up for.

[steveeastend]

I've always preferred the idea of Gerrard higher up the pitch because of his finishing ability.

..which are gone, more or less.

[Draex]

These perceptions just won't die. Even if he becomes Xavi and Busquets rolled into one; on the occasion he misplaces a long ball or is caught out of position the lazy generalisations start again. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy with no real comparative quality. Stevie in his early to mid-20s could be accused of trying to hard, but it's been a long time since then and he has been much more disciplined in the latter stage of his career. Moreover, he rarely does anything the manager hasn't instructed him to do. Whenever he plays as the sole holder he's a different player, but right now he's still considered good enough to press forward most of the time. I having a sneaking suspicion that a lot of the people who criticise him for going forward will love him when he finally puts that part of his game to bed. I see that as sad - it's become taken for granted just how good or valuable it is to have that kind of player.

Anyway, let's stick to the OP's idea that we argue about the two midfielders with an emphasis on stats. Otherwise, this becomes another thread for a few people with never-ending agendas to empty their bile.

O the Irony.

[BabuYagu]

Me as well. Atletico Madrid is showing very strong shot numbers and goals for/allowed this year with <50% possession. I think I'd have to see some sort of weighting system of the area of possession(thirds or quarters) to fully jump on board with any projection system that includes possession. For instance, final 1/3 possession would have more value than own third.

As for the 2nd half being weak for us...I tend to think that our squad players have simply not been good enough. Our bench options have been Aspas, Moses, Alberto in those crucial attacking positions. Even one more 1st XI caliber signing that can play somewhere in an advanced MF role fortifies that drastically. Problem there is finding the value. I get the impression the committee set out to find the next Michu, and Aspas hasn't been that.

I think he is working on the idea that > possession = better goal scoring oppertunities. Doesn´t really work for me as counter attacks usually account for most of the 1-on-1 chances you see in football whereas United being slow in possession is giving them strong numbers but that are failing to pull defences out of shape moving the ball around in front of sides.

Instead he should weight the shot stats depending on their position relative to the goal.

I also read somewhere recently that shots from any position are twice as likely to succeed if the preceeding pass was a through ball rather than a cross. Found that very interesting as I haven´t seen any statistical analysis account for that. The same article showed that Arsenal & Liverpool lead the league in through balls, followed by Man City.

[The Woolster]

Great idea for a thread. I have been thinking of doing some analysis myself but I am not sure where to get the data from. Is there a place where I can extract data for all premier league matches into excel? Can't be bothered to copy all of it every week. Is there a place where you can extract the data from and obviously refresh it with each gameweek. Wouldn't mind paying for it.

You can download data from football-data, but they have funny shots on target definition (although I think they use Opta from this season)
Otherwise you can try WhoScored/Statszone/Squawka for free data and fantasyfootballscout for paid for data (£12 I think).

EPLIndex has the best data, but due to rule changes imposed on them, you can only get access to the data if you write for them and publish on their site.

Most guys going through match by match to record their data.

[The Woolster]

I posted this over the weekend if anyone's interested, I attempt, and I think succeed in improving TSR by adjusting for shot quality.

http://woolyjumpersforgoalposts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/creating-some-new-metrics-using-optas.html?m=1

[the_red_pill]

Why would this matter assuming 'shots' are long range, or from outside the area?  How many has Mignolet conceded from shots outside the area anyway?  There was one recently v City which was goalkeeping error.  And one v Arsenal.  Don't recall any more off the top of my head.  He's a good shot stopper generally.  Less confident at coming off the line and dealing with high balls.  I'd be more concerned with defending set pieces as opposed to looking at stats re shots at goal.

Yip- I'm more interested in the amount of shots against/allowed- when these 2 are playing- that actually turn into goals- and overall, we've the joint 4th best record there[shared with city]. Our results have been "woeful" away this season whether Gerrard played or not.
Do we concede more or fewer when these 2 are playing as opposed to one of them being out?
What is our GoalsAgainst-to-GoalsFor ratio(keeping in mind our SoT and SoTA[gainst]) compared to other teams when these are on the pitch and when not?

We can have 3 times the amount of shots allowed as the next team, but it won't make a difference if we both have the same amount of goals conceded, which is where some of the meat lie.. millions of shots allowed while Gerrard and Lucas are on the pitch, but 2nd in the goalsAgainst table, for instance. The latter is the real stat- the one that makes sense to the poor.

[Fromola]

Me as well. Atletico Madrid is showing very strong shot numbers and goals for/allowed this year with <50% possession. I think I'd have to see some sort of weighting system of the area of possession(thirds or quarters) to fully jump on board with any projection system that includes possession. For instance, final 1/3 possession would have more value than own third.

Atletico are quite like Mourinho's Inter. Simeone sets them up to be tight and counter attacking. If you can perfect that its vdry effective.

[Tony19:6]

..which are gone, more or less.

Garbage

[rocco]

If we're playing 3 in midfield
2-1 I'd like to see Gerrard as the 1
But ideally im guessing 1-2 will work better for us with Gerrerd again in the 2

[robgomm]

I thought the issue with us second half is we've already wrapped up quite a few games first-half.

[barbudo]

When Lucas and Gerrard started together

SoT against per game: 5.2
SoT against per game: 5.8

Fascinating analysis. But just one quibble; there's a couple of typos in your lists (hint ... too many " SoT against"s).

[GrkStav]

Yip- I'm more interested in the amount of shots against/allowed- when these 2 are playing- that actually turn into goals- and overall, we've the joint 4th best record there[shared with city]. Our results have been "woeful" away this season whether Gerrard played or not.
Do we concede more or fewer when these 2 are playing as opposed to one of them being out?
What is our GoalsAgainst-to-GoalsFor ratio(keeping in mind our SoT and SoTA[gainst]) compared to other teams when these are on the pitch and when not?

We can have 3 times the amount of shots allowed as the next team, but it won't make a difference if we both have the same amount of goals conceded, which is where some of the meat lie.. millions of shots allowed while Gerrard and Lucas are on the pitch, but 2nd in the goalsAgainst table, for instance. The latter is the real stat- the one that makes sense to the poor.

Sorry, interesting substantively, but (pedant alert): number of shots, goals, passes, times, chances, headers, free-kicks, etc. NOT 'amount'. On the other hand, you got the "more or fewer" right, so it's clear you get the idea.

[Miltonred]

Have you adjusted for the quality of opposition?  Also might be worth adjusting for "team who scores first goal".
I will put some thought into other factors that might matter.

[steveeastend]

Garbage

So when did he score the last time? Compared to what he could offer a couple of years ago his finishing isn't exicisting..

[Tony19:6]

So when did he score the last time? Compared to what he could offer a couple of years ago his finishing isn't exicisting..

I dont need to compare anything.

His finishing ability, whether its from open or set play hasnt diminished (long range missiles aside) and he still offers more of a goal threat than any other player outside the strikers.

[jdpapa3]

I posted this over the weekend if anyone's interested, I attempt, and I think succeed in improving TSR by adjusting for shot quality.

http://woolyjumpersforgoalposts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/creating-some-new-metrics-using-optas.html?m=1

You are doing some very good work here. You are good at explaining your thought process and making it simple for the reader to understand in a statistical world where that is a rarity.

Just wish I could put more stock into the OPTA CCCs as they can be a bit weird and very prone to bizarre human interpretation by their loggers!

[ElstonGunn]

Elston, does it mean that a Lucas/Gerrard pairing allow more shots at our goal ?

Yes, a lot more. The improvement without one of them is about 2.5 fewer shots a game allowed, and 2 more shots taken. Though I do want to suggest a bit of caution again. We've only played 7 league games without them this season, so we shouldn't draw any too solid conclusions. They happen to support the opinion I already had, but they're certainly not conclusive in and of themselves.