Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Yorkykopite]

if marr was competent he’d ask why they stand and take a salary if they don’t intend to ever do the job they’re elected to dod

That's such an easy thing to explain. He'd be incompetent to ask it.

[Zeb]

No idea what a close alignment with the single market means unless it means Labour are prepared to drop all our red lines.
What has the UKs rights and protections got to do with the EU after we leave the SM, what are we actually negotiating as these rights can't be enforced by the EU after Brexit, it's one of the biggest reasons the hard right want us out. our rights will be at the mercy of this Tory government.

If you click through to the letter, "shared institutions" can only be done via EEA membership or so similar as to be talking in euphemisms about the same thing. So, yeah, it's tanking May's 'red lines'. We're at the stage where Labour is proposing 'Norway+' by another name as its price for a cross-party consensus.

[killer-heels]

If you click through to the letter, "shared institutions" can only be done via EEA membership or so similar as to be talking in euphemisms about the same thing. So, yeah, it's tanking May's 'red lines'. We're at the stage where Labour is proposing 'Norway+' by another name as its price for a cross-party consensus.

The Tories would never give up the chance to leave the customs union. Its their main prize.

[west_london_red]

They, we, won't get a better chance to create a new social-democratic party. Not unless the FPTP system is changed, which it won't be. There's a huge number of people on the centre-left in the UK who now feel disenfranchised over Brexit. Many would welcome a new political home. The Labour Party, meanwhile, is led by an old Trot of no discernible charisma, who is extremely soft on anti-semitism, with a track record for supporting terrorists, and whose position on Europe is popular only with a nationalist-inclined minority of white working class voters who would never vote for him anyway.

I hope that Streatham CLP do get rid of Chuka. Trada seems to think they will. He's wrong about practically everything of course, but he might just be right about that. Such an event would be the most likely catalyst for a schism in the Labour Party - especially if it was followed by further de-selections of popular Labour MPs. 

None of that will stop Brexit from happening, in which case going by the TSSA poll Labour gets hammered at the next election and Corbyn will be forced out anyway.

[Yorkykopite]

None of that will stop Brexit from happening, in which case going by the TSSA poll Labour gets hammered at the next election and Corbyn will be forced out anyway.

None of it will stop Brexit, it's true. I'm thinking beyond Brexit now in the hope that a new centre left party will gain traction by campaigning for another referendum.

As for Corbyn, who will force him out? We know it won't be the PLP. They have no power to do so. It can only be the members. But most members are nuts.

[The Gulleysucker]

None of that will stop Brexit from happening, in which case going by the TSSA poll Labour gets hammered at the next election and Corbyn will be forced out anyway.

He won't unless there's a challenger that the members then vote for.

Of course he could resign instead...

[Zeb]

The Tories would never give up the chance to leave the customs union. Its their main prize.

How many of those Tories are going to vote for a backstop which includes one they know needs magic tech to get out of? Numbers in parliament have always been that May needs opposition support to put anything workable through. It's not just that end of things which will kick at it either - Chris Leslie's already fuming on twitter about "enabling a Tory Brexit".

[The Gulleysucker]

Liam Fox talking about letting goods come into the country without charging tariffs.

That should be grand for the people smugglers.

[So… Howard Philips]

You forgot gays/lessies, darkies, fenians, gypsies, non church goers, dirty Romanians, taigs,  and those who would deny us our inalienable right to embezzle as much money/free holidays from everyone else.

You forgot the inalienable right to subsidise the wife's fancy man's business with public money or was that just a salacious rumour?

[west_london_red]

None of it will stop Brexit, it's true. I'm thinking beyond Brexit now in the hope that a new centre left party will gain traction by campaigning for another referendum.

As for Corbyn, who will force him out? We know it won't be the PLP. They have no power to do so. It can only be the members. But most members are nuts.

If the party loses seats I don’t see how he stays, just my opinion but I do get the feeling that his popularity within the party is thinning thanks to his handling of Brexit and despite all the talk about Momentum running the party they are less then 10% of the party membership.

[oldfordie]

If you click through to the letter, "shared institutions" can only be done via EEA membership or so similar as to be talking in euphemisms about the same thing. So, yeah, it's tanking May's 'red lines'. We're at the stage where Labour is proposing 'Norway+' by another name as its price for a cross-party consensus.

Ive gone past the stage of spending too much time reading the details now to be honest, all ive read is bullshit.bullet points on the deal they want and what red lines there prepared to drop tells us whether there still talking bullshit or actually putting forward a deal the EU will accept. it's great Labour are demanding a customs union deal, it's disappointing to see Abbott and Gardener spluttering when asked if they will drop the red line to give us that customs union deal.

[ShakaHislop]

Corbyn's written to the PM setting out what he wants from Brexit. Via BBC's Nick Eardley:

"Jeremy Corbyn has written to the PM setting out 5 demands that could see Labour back a Brexit deal. Wants Government to commit by enshrining them as objectives in domestic law...

Corbyn's demands:

- Customs Union
- "Close alignment" to single market
- "Dynamic alignment" on rights and protections
- Commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes
- Agreements on future security arrangements

Corbyn also calling for more talks with PM to find a deal "that can win the support of parliament and bring the country together"

Guardian has more, including the letter itself.

That there's something of a problem in writing things in law which depend on EU goodwill in post-Brexit negotiations is something we're all going to have to pretend to ignore.

From the letter

That approach should guide how alignment with EU regulations is to be maintained in future, as well discussions on dispute resolution, the role of the ECJ, and competition and migration rules

Labour still dragging its feet on state aid and FOM then.

[Zeb]

Labour still dragging its feet on state aid and FOM then.

Yup. Think that sentence needs to be read with the ones before it too though, "We recognise that any negotiation with the EU will require flexibility and compromise. Our first priority must be a deal that is best for jobs, living standards, our communities, in the context of increased and more equitable investment across all regions and nations of the UK. That approach..."

Take Oldfordie's point too, this is bullshit but it's also bullshit which wouldn't take much to make workable if parliament has, and maintains, a majority in favour of a 'soft' Brexit.

[oldfordie]

From the letter

Labour still dragging its feet on state aid and FOM then.

This is what I mean about the bullshit, you will get a different answer depending on the question you ask, we need a CU+SM deal as it's vital to protect jobs and economy.
Are you going to respect the referendum result, yes Labour will respect why people voted leave.
No ECJ, no FOM, good bye SM. theres no problems over state aid anyway.

[ShakaHislop]

The PM is gonna need a MASSIVE card when she comes to Brussels tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1093155015911444480

The text in the card

https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1093178959716671489

That 3rd line...

[ShakaHislop]

Yup. Think that sentence needs to be read with the ones before it too though, "We recognise that any negotiation with the EU will require flexibility and compromise. Our first priority must be a deal that is best for jobs, living standards, our communities, in the context of increased and more equitable investment across all regions and nations of the UK. That approach..."

Take Oldfordie's point too, this is bullshit but it's also bullshit which wouldn't take much to make workable if parliament has, and maintains, a majority in favour of a 'soft' Brexit.

Do you believe there is such a majority?

For unicorn soft Brexit, there might be. Realistic soft Brexit with FOM, I'm doubtful.

If you're so terrified of being seen to be "thwarting" Brexit by supporting a 2nd referendum as most MPs currently seem to be, I don't see why you'd be more comfortable not dealing decisively with what is widely regarded as the biggest reason why people voted Leave; immigration.

[killer-heels]

Do you believe there is such a majority?

For unicorn soft Brexit, there might be. Realistic soft Brexit with FOM, I'm doubtful.

If you're so terrified of being seen to be "thwarting" Brexit by supporting a 2nd referendum as most MPs currently seem to be, I don't see why you'd be more comfortable not dealing decisively with what is widely regarded as the biggest reason why people voted Leave; immigration.

I think it was Lisa Nandy on the radio today saying Labour had to compromise and she felt it should be on immigration.

[Zeb]

Do you believe there is such a majority?

For unicorn soft Brexit, there might be. Realistic soft Brexit with FOM, I'm doubtful.

If you're so terrified of being seen to be "thwarting" Brexit by supporting a 2nd referendum as most MPs currently seem to be, I don't see why you'd be more comfortable not dealing decisively with what is widely regarded as the biggest reason why people voted Leave; immigration.

I think there could be a majority there for what 'soft' Brexit really is, although I suspect playing with language is how our politicians will convince themselves it is palatable to the wider public, but it is reliant on those who are currently 'remain' voting for it too, as well as the SNP holding to their public position whether than having a last minute wobble for their own party political ends.

Have significant doubts whether May will go for it though. And that's really why I suspect Labour's frontbench have finally shifted on this.

[ShakaHislop]

I think it was Lisa Nandy on the radio today saying Labour had to compromise and she felt it should be on immigration.

Nandy also acknowledged that Labour’s own Brexit tests would not be met in any deal with Brussels - and the party may have to drop its hopes of ending free movement.

“The six key tests commit us to the exact same benefits as being in the single market, to being in a permanent UK-wide customs union with the European Union, and ending free movement.

“Now it is very clear, in discussions with the European Union, that you cannot do all of those things. So we are going to have to choose.

“My own view is that access to the single market and remaining in a permanent customs union is the only thing that will protect the huge number of food manufacturing jobs in my constituency, and the service industry as well, which employs many people in my town and across the country.

“So ending free movement is where we are going to have to budge.”

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/labour-mps-ready-to-back-brexit-says-lisa-nandy-1-5881477

I suspect her views on FOM are in a minority of those Labour MPs who are considering backing May.

It also begs the questions

a) what would be the point of Brexit if we were proposing to leave on those terms? and

b) why put yourself at risk of being (not unfairly on this occasion IMO) branded a "red Tory" by voting with the government for a Brexit deal that would also not satisfy a lot of the Labour Leavers in your constituency? You're pissing off both sides by pursuing a course of action that is logically stupid. If you're going to try and sell continuing to be locked in a customs union, and continuing to accept FOM to Brexiteers, you may as well go the whole hog and come out for a 2nd referendum/Remain. That's the only route to us keeping the "control" the Leavers thought we were taking back.

[Zeb]

Nandy's views are also informed by the work which has been done trying to find out what voters want and which compromises they'd make. eg Involve's Citizens' Assembly in 2017. She can defend leaving but remaining within EFTA/EEA but feels a second referendum risks increasing divisions and hardening positions.* I still disagree with parts of that myself but the times I've heard her speak to small groups of us about it it's been pretty clear she's absolutely genuine in her belief around that.

*edit: see Hope not Hate's recent report too: http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Proofed_HnH-brexit-report-2019-01-v5.pdf

[oldfordie]

That should be grand for the people smugglers.

I assume you mean wanting to get out
Good luck signing all those trade deals as well, it's absurd, we're giving the whole world tariff free into the UK, not 1 country in the world will sign a trade deal, they've got the best deal already.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1093234373774725121?s=21

“backing Brexit would be worse than the Iraq invasion”

Pretty ironic that to be honest

[Alan_X]

Corbyn's written to the PM setting out what he wants from Brexit. Via BBC's Nick Eardley:

"Jeremy Corbyn has written to the PM setting out 5 demands that could see Labour back a Brexit deal. Wants Government to commit by enshrining them as objectives in domestic law...

Corbyn's demands:

- Customs Union
- "Close alignment" to single market
- "Dynamic alignment" on rights and protections
- Commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes
- Agreements on future security arrangements

Corbyn also calling for more talks with PM to find a deal "that can win the support of parliament and bring the country together"

Guardian has more, including the letter itself.

That there's something of a problem in writing things in law which depend on EU goodwill in post-Brexit negotiations is something we're all going to have to pretend to ignore.

Labour’s six tests for Brexit:

Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU? - It 'ensures' nothing...
Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union? - No
Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities? - Again, it 'ensures' nothing...
Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom? - 'dynamic alignment' means whatever you want it to mean...
Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime? As with the others, there is no guaranteed protection once we are out...
Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK? - This stands. It will deliver a worse economic future for all regions and all nations...

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/labour-six-tests-brexit-full-list-sir-keir-starmer-conference-speech-2018/

The only way to meet Labour's six tests is to remain in the EU.

[cowtownred]

Such a pity that no politician has come out and spoken with a firm voice, consistently, in favour of Remain. Not convincingly before June 2016, and certainly not in recent months.
And articulate, photogenic, and committed as she is, it's so telling that the only public figure willing to promote some common sense, is Gina Miller.

Where are the politicians?  Even Soubry, Clarke and Wollaston have gone silent. Won't no-one get up and say how stupid this all is?

[Zeb]

The only way to meet Labour's six tests is to remain in the EU.

Same conversation we had about the tests a long time back, isn't it? I think 'soft' Brexit (original meaning) does squeeze through the tests and the conference motion. Not sure there's any other way to understand what Corbyn is asking for here, ignoring whether May can accept it, but a route to that in the political declaration. Whether it's ultimately realisable once we're out of the EU seems, erm, more questionable. 

[Alan_X]

Same conversation we had about the tests a long time back, isn't it? I think 'soft' Brexit (original meaning) does squeeze through the tests and the conference motion. Not sure there's any other way to understand what Corbyn is asking for here, ignoring whether May can accept it, but a route to that in the political declaration. Whether it's ultimately realisable once we're out of the EU seems, erm, more questionable. 

Corbyn just wants out. Ideally he wants all the blame on the Tories.

I’m struggling to see where this fits into the agreed Labour policy which was the any deal had to meet the six tests. If the deal doesn’t meet the tests Labour votes against it and goes for an election. If they don’t get an election they campaign for a second referendum.

There was no agreement for Corbyn to help May get a Tory Brexit (soft or not) through Parliament.

[Zeb]

Corbyn just wants out. Ideally he wants all the blame on the Tories.

I’m struggling to see where this fits into the agreed Labour policy which was the any deal had to meet the six tests. If the deal doesn’t meet the tests Labour votes against it and goes for an election. If they don’t get an election they campaign for a second referendum.

There was no agreement for Corbyn to help May get a Tory Brexit (soft or not) through Parliament.

I think it does meet the six tests, providing it's delivered. 6 isn't necessarily about economics - Labour has often focused on NI and the border for that test. (eg p.9 pdf).

David Henig's view on what the letter means too: "As phrased this Labour letter on Brexit appears to be deliverable. "A UK say on future EU trade deals" is not a high bar and "shared institutions" on single market = single market institutions." Albeit  he follows it swiftly with scepticism on how long this will last.

Conference defined a Tory Brexit as, effectively, anything falling short of a 'soft' Brexit. So I think it matches there too.

Question which does need to be asked is how much would anyone trust the Tories to work to deliver it even after agreeing it to get the WA passed? Especially if they win a general election campaign fought on the future relationship.

[KillieRed]

Only one is. Ross Thomson from Aberdeen South. He's an absolute muppet who'll do anything to get Boris Johnsons attention.

The other two were remainers.

Was looking to see if this fella had any mention on here today. He had quite the evening it seems. I`d bet he has Boris`s attention now!

[Alan_X]

I think it does meet the six tests, providing it's delivered. 6 isn't necessarily about economics - Labour has often focused on NI and the border for that test. (eg p.9 pdf).

David Henig's view on what the letter means too: "As phrased this Labour letter on Brexit appears to be deliverable. "A UK say on future EU trade deals" is not a high bar and "shared institutions" on single market = single market institutions." Albeit  he follows it swiftly with scepticism on how long this will last.

Conference defined a Tory Brexit as, effectively, anything falling short of a 'soft' Brexit. So I think it matches there too.

Question which does need to be asked is how much would anyone trust the Tories to work to deliver it even after agreeing it to get the WA passed? Especially if they win a general election campaign fought on the future relationship.

It meets the tests if 'exact same benefits' means 'not the same benefits at all'.

And it's worth reading down that thread to where Henig is careful to say that 'a UK say' does not mean having any influence.

Takru @Takru5
38m38 minutes ago
Replying to @DavidHenigUK

"A UK say on future EU trade deals"

The collective EU just fell of their chairs, laughing.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
37m37 minutes ago

No they didn't. They would if it said veto. Or possible even meaningful say. This is very carefully written.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

Takru @Takru5
35m35 minutes ago

How much influence do countries like Norway, Switzerland or Turkey have on EU trade deals with 3rd parties?
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
34m34 minutes ago

Labour's letter doesn't say influence
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

More weasel words from Labour. Anyone can 'have a say' about anything.

[redbyrdz]

That should be grand for the people smugglers.

Said that before, the people in the Calais jungle will finally be able to move to Britain.


Apparently, you can treat customs like you treat the Mersey bridge toll - you fill in an online form, and once you've crossed, you go back online and pay customs on whatever you've said you brought in. No need to stop and check anyone...

[Zeb]

It meets the tests if 'exact same benefits' means 'not the same benefits at all'.

And it's worth reading down that thread to where Henig is careful to say that 'a UK say' does not mean having any influence.

More weasel words from Labour. Anyone can 'have a say' about anything.

Oh I did read. See also Portes' counter-point to Henig's view on where this could lead. Link to that offshoot.

"Exact same benefits" are of membership of single market and customs union. Not EU.

[Ray K]

@BBCNormanS
Am told PM will not put a specific proposal to eu on backstop but will seek eu acceptance that backstop has to change.


It's basically performance art from May at this stage. Some sort of kabuki theatre at least.

[Elmo!]

Was looking to see if this fella had any mention on here today. He had quite the evening it seems. I`d bet he has Boris`s attention now!

 

I thought about posting that in here but decided it probably wan't of that much interest to those lucky enough not to be in (or in my case next to) his constituency.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/tory-mp-ross-thomson-accused-of-groping-men-in-commons-bar

[Zeb]

Sky's Lewis Goodall on why Corbyn has decided to offer a form of Brexit.

why Corbyn is doing this:

My sense talking to Lab sources is they’ve given up on election through motion of no conf[idence] and they think the best strategy is to divide and rule by offering May a way out. A way out which could split the Tory party and get an election anyway.

A senior Labour source points out how many votes Labour’s amendment got on its outing last week (296). It only needs twenty more to get over the line. How tempting, the argument goes for May and for Tory remainers, especially if it wasn’t tabled in Corbyn’s name.

As I reported weeks ago, there isn’t a cat in hell’s chance of this Labour leader or this leadership team backing a second referendum...

My sense is they’re extremely skittish about their working class base. One aide mentioned the Democrats: “they’ve lost the working class. We are never going to put ourselves in a position to do that. That’s why with Brexit, we’re not going to plunge head first into Remainia.”

That is predicated on the idea that "Remainia" was not as important to the 2017 election result (something for what it's worth, I disagree with) and that those voters have nowhere else to go. It's a big risk.

Slight fly in the ointment is that were May to accept the compromise, and were it to be negotiated and end up somewhere round where it would seem likely (ie not May's backstop) in the political declaration, then the division won't just be on the government benches...

[Circa1892]

Still baffles me we're facing the biggest decision this country has faced in 70 years with the two worst leaders its ever had simultaneously.

[west_london_red]

Am I the only one who hasn’t heard the phrase ‘Remainia’ before?

[killer-heels]

Am I the only one who hasn’t heard the phrase ‘Remainia’ before?

No me neither. Its a new one.

[Zeb]

I've seen it used jokingly about cut out maps showing parts of the country which voted remain and leave. Other than that, not by a journalist to my recollection.

[Commie Bobbie]

Am I the only one who hasn’t heard the phrase ‘Remainia’ before?

Name of the new independent state of the sane parts of the United Kingdom?

[Iska]

why Corbyn is doing this:

My sense talking to Lab sources is they’ve given up on election through motion of no conf[idence] and they think the best strategy is to divide and rule by offering May a way out. A way out which could split the Tory party and get an election anyway.

A senior Labour source points out how many votes Labour’s amendment got on its outing last week (296). It only needs twenty more to get over the line. How tempting, the argument goes for May and for Tory remainers, especially if it wasn’t tabled in Corbyn’s name.

As I reported weeks ago, there isn’t a cat in hell’s chance of this Labour leader or this leadership team backing a second referendum...

My sense is they’re extremely skittish about their working class base. One aide mentioned the Democrats: “they’ve lost the working class. We are never going to put ourselves in a position to do that. That’s why with Brexit, we’re not going to plunge head first into Remainia.”

That is predicated on the idea that "Remainia" was not as important to the 2017 election result (something for what it's worth, I disagree with) and that those voters have nowhere else to go. It's a big risk.

Ugh, to see it set out like that.  The country’s interests are not aligned with its political classes’ interests.