Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2015-16

[Nessy76]

We would have to do better than so far, and other teams worse than so far, for us to get anywhere near Europe. Not so difficult

With Man City probably still likely to qualify for at least the Europa through the league, the League Cup place will revert, so top 6 will all have the chance to play in Europe.
There's a reasonable chance that the FA Cup place will also revert to the league, (if one of Arsenal, West Ham or Man Utd win the cup) which would open up 7th as well.

[killer-heels]

With Man City probably still likely to qualify for at least the Europa through the league, the League Cup place will revert, so top 6 will all have the chance to play in Europe.
There's a reasonable chance that the FA Cup place will also revert to the league, (if one of Arsenal, West Ham or Man Utd win the cup) which would open up 7th as well.

I dont think 7th place gets the Europa if one of the teams who qualify for Europe win the cup. I may be wrong but i think it goes to the finalist.

[campioni]

I dont think 7th place gets the Europa if one of the teams who qualify for Europe win the cup. I may be wrong but i think it goes to the finalist.

That used to be the case but it was changed last season. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/32358581

[killer-heels]

That used to be the case but it was changed last season. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/32358581

Ah right.

[Nessy76]

That used to be the case but it was changed last season. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/32358581

Yes. Will all be discussed here:
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=323007.0

[johnny74]

Let's have a look at the run-in.

Leicester City are still top of the Premier League.

That's not something I thought I'd be writing here in March, but with just nine games to go, the crisp-munching foxes have a lead of five in the trad table on 60pts, and are sitting pretty at the top of the APLT on -9 after 29 played.

Their remaining fixtures:
Newcastle H
Palace A
Southampton H
Sunderland A
West Ham H
Swansea H
Man Utd A
Everton H
Chelsea A

Playing to Par would yield 21 points from those nine games, seeing them end the season on 81, and probably crowned Champions.

The maximum possible would be 27, which would give them a total of 87 and definitely the title.

If they maintained a win in each home game and a draw in each away, they would amass 19 points, for a total of
79.

They have averaged 2.07 pts per game so far. That form would give them about 19 points, for a total of 79.

Their APLT average is dropping 0.3ppg. If they maintain that form, they'll end up on about -12 APLT or 78 points total.



Next up are Tottenham. They have an APLT score of -14 and 55 on the Trad table after 29 games.

Their remaining games:
Villa A
Bournemouth H
Liverpool A
Man Utd H
Stoke A
West Brom H
Chelsea A
Southampton H
Newcastle A

Par for those fixtures would be 21 points. Which would see Spurs end the season on 76.

The maximum they can reach would be 27 points, giving 82 points in total.

Winning at home and drawing away would give them 17 for a total of 72.

Their average PPG so far is 1.90, which would give them 17 for a total of 72.

Their APLT average is dropping 0.48, leaving them on course for a -18 total, or 72.



Manchester City are on -16 in the APLT, and 50pts in the trad table after 28 games.

They have ten games remaining.

Norwich A
Man Utd H
Bournemouth A
West Brom H
Chelsea A
Stoke H
Southampton A
Arsenal H
Swansea A
Newcastle A (date TBC)

The APLT par for those games is 24 pts, which would give them 74 in total.

The maximum they can achieve is 30 for a total of 80 pts.

Winning the homes and drawing the aways would give them 18 for a total of 68.

City average 1.79ppg. That form would give them about 18 points for a total of 68.

Their APLT PPG average drops by 0.57. That form would give them a final APLT score around -22, or 68 points.


Arsenal are 4th in the APLT with -17, but 3rd in the Trad table on 52, having played 29.

Here are their remaining fixtures:

West Brom H
Everton A
Watford H
West Ham A
Palace H
Sunderland A
Norwich H
Man City A
Villa H

Par for these fixtures is 21, which would give them 73.

The maximum they can achieve is 79.

Winning home and drawing away would give them 19 for 71 in total.

They average 1.79 ppg this season, which would translate to about 16 points, or 68.

Their APLT drop is .59ppg which would see them end the season on -22 APLT pts or 68.


West Ham are currently 5th in the trad table, and although they haven't featured in the APLT as yet, they clearly come into contention here, and would be on -20 in the APLT if my calculations are correct.

Their remaining games:
Watford H
Chelsea A
Palace H
Arsenal H
Leicester A
Man Utd H
West Brom A
Swansea H
Stoke A

Those games have an APLT par of 21, which would give the Hammers 70 points at the end of the season.

The maximum they can get is 27 for a final total of 76.

Winning home and drawing away would give them 19 for a total of 68.

Their average ppg is 1.69, which would see them end up on about 64.

Their APLT drop averages at .69, which would give them a final APLT score of -26 or 64.


Next up are Manchester United, in fifth place in the trad table on 47 points, with an APLT score of -22.

Their remaining games are as follows:

Palace H
Man City A
Everton H
Tottenham A
Villa H
West Ham A
Leicester H
Norwich A
Bournemouth H

APLT par is 21 for that run. That would see them end the season on 68.

The maximum they can achieve this season is 74.

Winning the homes and drawing away would give them 19 for a total of 66.

They have averaged 1.62ppg, which would deliver about 15 points, for a total of 62.

Their APLT drop average is .76, which means they should expect to drop about another 7 points to a final APLT score of -29, or 61 points.


Liverpool sit in sixth in the trad table on 44 points, with an APLT score of -22.

Chelsea H (date TBC)
Everton H (date TBC)
Southampton A
Spurs H
Stoke H
Bournemouth A
Newcastle H
Swansea A
Watford H
West Brom A

That gives an APLT par of 24, for a total of 68 points.

The maximum possible for the reds is 74.

Winning the home games and drawing away would yield 22 for a total of 66.

Liverpool's PPG is 1.57 which would give a final total of about 60 points.

The APLT drop average is .79, which would point to a further 7 pt drop to 29, or 61 points in the final trad table.

Team	APLT	Pts	Par	Max	DAWH	PPG	drop
Leicester City	-9	60	81	87	79	79	78
Tottenham	-14	55	76	82	72	72	72
Man City	-16	50	74	80	68	68	68
Arsenal	-17	53	73	79	71	68	68
West Ham	-20	49	70	76	68	64	64
Man Utd	-22	47	68	74	66	62	61
Liverpool	-22	44	68	74	66	60	61

Some interesting conclusions from that. I just tried to do some relatively simple maths to try and do some sort of prediction.

If you take the ppg from the last 6 games on the form guide and then also take the ppg from the last 12 and then average them together you get a ppg total that combines a relatively short and a slightly longer period. I used these to extrapolate each teams final total. Admittedly it doesn't account for the fixture list in the way the APLT does but interesting to compare the two. It also doesn't account for the surge from the relegation scrappers nicking points off everyone else left, right and centre. But it's still interesting. And of course you can't predict goal difference so I've put us below Arsenal based only on current data. Big surprise looking at West Ham and Man City but then you look at their recent form over both 6 and 12 games...

[drmick]

This is why West Ham need to be in the APLT. If we need to bump somebody, then it may as well be Chelsea at this point.

[johnny74]

That's a very good point. Didn't even notice West Ham were missing.

[Gus 1855]

It would be utterly utterly remarkable if the top 4 ended up being Leicester, Spurs, West Ham and us, which is not utterly utterly crazy. Can't imagine there are many occasions when the Champions League qualifiers from one league in one season all fail to qualify for the next season.

As it is, two or three may miss out and that's quite something as it is.

[Nessy76]

City drop 2 away to Norwich and next up they have Man Utd at home.

Big game for Spurs tomorrow v Villa and a chance to close the gap at least until Monday when Leicester entertain Rafa's Newcastle.

Leicester now just need 23 points from their final nine games to definitely secure the title.

[Hij]

City drop 2 away to Norwich and next up they have Man Utd at home.

Big game for Spurs tomorrow v Villa and a chance to close the gap at least until Monday when Leicester entertain Rafa's Newcastle.

Leicester now just need 23 points from their final nine games to definitely secure the title.

27 left then?

Spurs maintain par I presume as Villa are gash.

Looking more and more like a two horse race now as Spurs take a 6 point lead in the real table over Arsenal.

[Hunts Cross]

With the rush of blood to the head after winning three games on the bounce, I like many here, am wondering where could we finish up. The picture painted in this thread is looking like 7th to 6th is likely, but better than that a bit of a pipe dream. Not impossible, but unlikely.

With the helpful summary above of remaining fixtures for the top teams, I think it worth looking at the games left where we know for a fact a team above us will drop points - when they play each other. Remember the bonkers fixture list early on in the season when we played a strong team every week? Well, this could be payback time.

If we anticipate Leicester and Spurs in the first two places, here are the head to heads (plus the top two) fixtures for the next 5 teams - as much as anyone could predict the next 5 teams in this astonishing season.

Man City
__________
ManU home
Arsenal home


Arsenal
___________
City away
West Ham away


West Ham
___________
ManU home
Arsenal home
Leicester away


ManU
_________
City away
Spurs away
West Ham away
Leicester home


Liverpool
___________
Spurs home


If we can win our game in hand to be just four points off fourth place and five points off third, there do not need to be too many draws between these teams, or wins to Spurs / Leicester, to give us a very real opportunity. Of course, we need a blinder of a run ourselves. Something we can do if we keep playing 'angry'.

This ain't over. Not by along way.

[thisyearisouryear]

Do we know when our postponed PL matches with Everton and Chelsea take place ?

[johnny74]

We have the hardest run in by some distance. Everton, Spurs and Chelsea at Anfield for starters, all three of those teams are achieving over 2ppg away from home. Everton get less than 1 ppg at their own ground!

Our last game of the season is WBA away and they have been taking 2.33 ppg there. Second best home form in last 6 games.



Add to that Bournemouth and Swansea away who are relatively strong at home at the moment...

If you repeat this calculation for the rest of the top 7:



Maybe Arsenal not so much out of it?

[Nessy76]

We have the hardest run in by some distance. Everton, Spurs and Chelsea at Anfield for starters, all three of those teams are achieving over 2ppg away from home. Everton get less than 1 ppg at their own ground!

Interesting, thanks for sharing. This is using form over the last 12, is it?
(I know Chelsea are on 1ppg away from home for the season, for instance.)

[CraigDS]

We have the hardest run in by some distance. Everton, Spurs and Chelsea at Anfield for starters, all three of those teams are achieving over 2ppg away from home. Everton get less than 1 ppg at their own ground!

Our last game of the season is WBA away and they have been taking 2.33 ppg there. Second best home form in last 6 games.

The issue is this ignores the level of the opposition in those games, which is exactly what the APLT looks at.

[Nessy76]

The issue is this ignores the level of the opposition in those games, which is exactly what the APLT looks at.

Makes it an interesting counterpoint for that reason, I'd say. We're reaching the point in the season where the APLT starts to just look a lot more like the trad table.

[Hunts Cross]

We have the hardest run in by some distance. Everton, Spurs and Chelsea at Anfield for starters.

I disagree. Manu have much the hardest run-in: City, Spurs, WH away, Everton and Leicester at home, plus Villa Norwich (a) and Bournemouth.

Apart from Spurs, all our remaining games are against teams that are below us. I expect to see us have a strong run-in while the teams currently above us take points off each other.

[johnny74]

Interesting, thanks for sharing. This is using form over the last 12, is it?
(I know Chelsea are on 1ppg away from home for the season, for instance.)

The last 12 games overall. 6 home and 6 away.

[johnny74]

The issue is this ignores the level of the opposition in those games, which is exactly what the APLT looks at.

I think I know what you mean.

But this is basically giving you a relative difficulty of each opponent which is more telling than a brief glance at the table would suggest. I had no idea WBA were so strong at home and that Everton were so woeful.

It's easy to look and see that, for example, you've got Chelsea at the Bridge followed by Bournemouth at home and get confused about which is actually the more difficult game.

[Hunts Cross]

I think I know what you mean.

But this is basically giving you a relative difficulty of each opponent which is more telling than a brief glance at the table would suggest. I had no idea WBA were so strong at home and that Everton were so woeful.

It's easy to look and see that, for example, you've got Chelsea at the Bridge followed by Bournemouth at home and get confused about which is actually the more difficult game.

This is the Bournemouth that lost all their home fixtures last month (Everton, Stoke, Arsenal) and just narrowly beat Swansea this month nth.? Sure Chelsea will be up for a game, but remember 1-3 late last year? So which is the harder game, in your opinion?

[Nessy76]

I think I know what you mean.

But this is basically giving you a relative difficulty of each opponent which is more telling than a brief glance at the table would suggest. I had no idea WBA were so strong at home and that Everton were so woeful.

Usually a safe assumption, that.

[johnny74]

This is the Bournemouth that lost all their home fixtures last month (Everton, Stoke, Arsenal) and just narrowly beat Swansea this month nth.? Sure Chelsea will be up for a game, but remember 1-3 late last year? So which is the harder game, in your opinion?

Bournemouth's home form - won 3 out of last 6. Giving them 1.5ppg  which is better than Chelsea's last 6 at Stamford Bridge 1.33ppg but I was actually talking about Bournemouth away from home where they also pick up 1.5ppg.

Also the 3-1 was at Stamford Bridge. I'm not talking about us anyway it was just an example. Our game is at Anfield which is going to be harder for us than it would be if we were playing them away from home.

I think you're getting very confused.

[Redcap]

We really just need to take it one game at a time. Saints away is first up, league-wise. They will be well up for it after we spanked them in the league cup, and we're going to need to play well to get the 3 points. Anything beyond that is really neither here nor there.

From the perspective of the APLT, I think this season has really exposed the weaknesses with the model. To be sure, in the grand scheme of the history of English top flight football, this season has been something of a statistical anomaly in terms of who's occupying the top positions. But if it's true that the additional TV revenue for PL clubs is evening out the playing field, we're going to continue to get unpredictable results year in, year out. Something like the table provided by johnny74 above would be a useful additional measure of difficulty of remaining fixtures (which is one of the key uses of the APLT). A suite of different tools might be needed to predict the actual performance of a team, beyond what the APLT provides.

[Hunts Cross]

I think you're getting very confused.

Hey - I think I resemble that remark

...but I also disagree that we have the toughest run-in.  We have the best run-in, United have the worst: Half (four) of United's remaining games are against teams in the five positions above them in the League, and three of those four games are away (City, spurs and West Ham). The home game of the four is Leicester. I wouldn't want to swap.

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Round 30

[Nessy76]

We really just need to take it one game at a time. Saints away is first up, league-wise. They will be well up for it after we spanked them in the league cup, and we're going to need to play well to get the 3 points. Anything beyond that is really neither here nor there.

From the perspective of the APLT, I think this season has really exposed the weaknesses with the model. To be sure, in the grand scheme of the history of English top flight football, this season has been something of a statistical anomaly in terms of who's occupying the top positions. But if it's true that the additional TV revenue for PL clubs is evening out the playing field, we're going to continue to get unpredictable results year in, year out. Something like the table provided by johnny74 above would be a useful additional measure of difficulty of remaining fixtures (which is one of the key uses of the APLT). A suite of different tools might be needed to predict the actual performance of a team, beyond what the APLT provides.

What we've seen this year isn't a product of financial levelling.

Leicester City have assembled a squad on a shoe string, while Manchester United have spent wildly and foolishly. City and Chelsea are teams in transition loaded with older players who they couldn't or didn't offload and Arsenal are showing the cost of a decade of underinvestment.

Will things return to "normal" in the future? Remains to be seen, but I wouldn't bet against it. While all the clubs are better off, some are still far richer than others and that usually shows in time.

[johnny74]

I think there's also been a huge amount of complacency amongst the very large clubs borne out of habit. It's been a very long time since clubs in the top 4 of the premier league have had to fight to keep their place. They therefore have low momentum. In comparison there are a large number of clubs below them that have a "desperation" to survive, to keep their place in mid-table, and to try and be a club of note. And this means spending wisely. And presumably this strategy of spending very wisely is now paying huge dividends. And I'm guessing that this is because the value of top-level transfers is not high.

Perhaps you can now get a manager that operates at an 8/10 level on an affordable wage. And players too, for moderate transfer fees, who play more effectively, and with more freedom than those with bigger price tags.

I can't help looking at clubs like Arsenal, United, and City as wading leviathans, whose previous size and influence were an advantage, now finding themselves outpaced by their slimmer underlings. Too heavy to keep up with the chase, soon to be left stuck in the mud.

I think we're lucky in that our struggles of late have given us a certain amount of renewed momentum. Very lucky to have chosen our current manager when we did because we now have a certain amount of hope.

[BigJimFinn]

What we've seen this year isn't a product of financial levelling.

Leicester City have assembled a squad on a shoe string, while Manchester United have spent wildly and foolishly. City and Chelsea are teams in transition loaded with older players who they couldn't or didn't offload and Arsenal are showing the cost of a decade of underinvestment.

Will things return to "normal" in the future? Remains to be seen, but I wouldn't bet against it. While all the clubs are better off, some are still far richer than others and that usually shows in time.

I disagree slightly in the case of Leicester. Their team was BUILT very cheaply, but KEEPING it together will cost them a lot more, both in terms of unrealised profits and wage raises. Fortunately they are now capable of carrying that cost. Without the certainty of increased PL revenues, I believe Leicester would have been very tempted to cash in their best players in January, when their league survival had already been secured. Now they could keep both the players and the club accountants happy with realistic expectations of improved contracts and Champions League involvement. I think this is great for the league and all supporters of clubs without oil billionaire funding.

I also expect that the richest clubs will keep winning more often than not, but there is also a balancing factor: playing in 4 competitions is a load on the finances (squad size), fitness and form of the big teams (not to forget Ed Woodward as the legendary Equalizer). One midtable team making a run for the top while not being involved in Europe or cups and being lucky in terms of avoiding injuries, like us in 2013-14 or Leicester now, could become a fairly common occurrence. These teams would probably not be able to stay up there, but the increased shuffling among the European spots would solidify the PL's position as the most competitive and interesting league in the world.

And to bring this back to the APLT theme: Old man Ranieri, he just keeps rolling along...

[Iska]

APLT Full Table : Round 30

Interesting that the gap between Newcastle & Sunderland to Palace & Swansea is a lot less in that table than the real one.  There might be a chance that both North East clubs can still get out of this.

[Nessy76]

I disagree slightly in the case of Leicester. Their team was BUILT very cheaply, but KEEPING it together will cost them a lot more, both in terms of unrealised profits and wage raises. Fortunately they are now capable of carrying that cost. Without the certainty of increased PL revenues, I believe Leicester would have been very tempted to cash in their best players in January, when their league survival had already been secured. Now they could keep both the players and the club accountants happy with realistic expectations of improved contracts and Champions League involvement. I think this is great for the league and all supporters of clubs without oil billionaire funding.

That is all interesting, but it doesn't really change my point.

You can't put what we're seeing this season down to something that a) hasn't happened yet and b) doesn't explain why Leicester are doing so well.

[BigJimFinn]

That is all interesting, but it doesn't really change my point.

You can't put what we're seeing this season down to something that a) hasn't happened yet and b) doesn't explain why Leicester are doing so well.

Leicester doing so well could be called a perfect storm, once-in-a-century combination of skill, luck and circumstance that defies any traditional explanation, and does not follow from the financial levelling. One way it was helped by it is the hire of Ranieri. Even though his last stops were not successful, he has vast international experience at top teams, and I doubt that a recently promoted small team could have signed a manager with his CV just a few years ago.

However, my claim is that without the new TV money the miracle would not have carried through the season, because the club would have cashed in their prime assets. Leicester not selling any players in January did happen already, and otherwise the rest of the season would have developed differently.

[Nessy76]

Leicester doing so well could be called a perfect storm, once-in-a-century combination of skill, luck and circumstance that defies any traditional explanation, and does not follow from the financial levelling. One way it was helped by it is the hire of Ranieri. Even though his last stops were not successful, he has vast international experience at top teams, and I doubt that a recently promoted small team could have signed a manager with his CV just a few years ago.

However, my claim is that without the new TV money the miracle would not have carried through the season, because the club would have cashed in their prime assets. Leicester not selling any players in January did happen already, and otherwise the rest of the season would have developed differently.

I see your point, but it's a stretch for me. There isn't normally a team like that in that position so it's impossible to say what else would have happened in slightly different circumstances.

As for the rest of the league, to me it doesn't seem that Arsenal, City and Chelsea have all been undone by a huge increase in quality from the sides lower down the table, their problems all look very much self inflicted.

[BigJimFinn]

As for the rest of the league, to me it doesn't seem that Arsenal, City and Chelsea have all been undone by a huge increase in quality from the sides lower down the table, their problems all look very much self inflicted.

Here I do agree with You, it still requires mistakes from the big clubs to waste their advantage, but I would say the margin of error for holding the top four spots is permanently diminished in comparison to the previous decade, also known as the Arsenal fourth place trophy era.

[Redcap]

 

I see your point, but it's a stretch for me. There isn't normally a team like that in that position so it's impossible to say what else would have happened in slightly different circumstances.

As for the rest of the league, to me it doesn't seem that Arsenal, City and Chelsea have all been undone by a huge increase in quality from the sides lower down the table, their problems all look very much self inflicted.

Hard to say, isn't it? No doubt all the richer teams have their share of problems of their own, but there's no doubt that lower and mid-table clubs are able to buy better quality players than they used to be able to. I think under a certain threshold of spending, it's not possible to compete in top flight English football. Over that threshold, it's still very difficult, but good management and squad configuration have more of a say. My theory is the increased spending has pushed quite a few more teams above that threshold.

It's not only Leicester that are asking more questions of the richer teams either. Watford, Southampton (for a couple of years now) and West Ham are all having good seasons in their own right; regardless of how the richer teams are performing, you can't ignore that they're putting together runs of good performances. And of course, when Watford does get a 3-0 win against Liverpool, that exacerbates our problems and makes it more difficult for us to go on a run.

Of course, it's still very early days and the sample size is small. But I think we are seeing something of a change happening here. It may be that Liverpool, City, United, Arsenal and Chelsea will all sort our shit out next season, but I suspect the average number of points in the top 4 in this era will be a lot lower than in the last.

[myrlas]

Leicester and Arsenal both win their par1's this round. Leicester will make this all the way now I think (and hope)

[Nessy76]

Team	APLT	Pts	Par	Max	DAWH	PPG	drop
Leicester City	-7	66	83	87	81	81	81
Tottenham	-14	58	76	82	74	73	72
Arsenal	-15	55	75	79	73	70	71
Man City	-18	51	72	78	68	67	66
West Ham	-20	50	70	74	68	63	65
Man Utd	-22	47	68	74	66	62	61
Liverpool	-22	44	68	74	66	60	61

What's interesting here is that it looks like 68 points will almost certainly be enough for fourth place. Liverpool can theoretically achieve that by playing to par for the remainder of the season. A draw at Southampton would be a decent result. A win would be excellent.

Also, Leicester now only need 16 points from 7 games to guarantee the title.

[Iska]

Not APLT, but I remembered today that Man City streaked way out in front at the top by winning their first five games.  Take the first five weeks out of the season and the table would look like this:

55 Leicester
52 Spurs
45 Arsenal
44 Stoke
41 West Ham
38 Southampton
37 Man Utd
37 Liverpool
37 Chelsea
36 City

They ought to be ashamed of themselves.

[Anthony]

Leicester now only need 16 points from 7 games to guarantee the title.

Chelsea are now 25 points behind Leicester with only another 24 points to play for - the Title Defence is now officially over!

[Kochevnik]

Team	APLT	Pts	Par	Max	DAWH	PPG	drop
Leicester City	-7	66	83	87	81	81	81
Tottenham	-14	58	76	82	74	73	72
Arsenal	-15	55	75	79	73	70	71
Man City	-18	51	72	78	68	67	66
West Ham	-20	50	70	74	68	63	65
Man Utd	-22	47	68	74	66	62	61
Liverpool	-22	44	68	74	66	60	61

What's interesting here is that it looks like 68 points will almost certainly be enough for fourth place. Liverpool can theoretically achieve that by playing to par for the remainder of the season. A draw at Southampton would be a decent result. A win would be excellent.

Also, Leicester now only need 16 points from 7 games to guarantee the title.

Yeah, I was just looking at this the other day and I actually think we should be targeting 66 points as a reasonably achievable target.  It wouldn't guarantee us 4th, far from it, but it would put us in a position to capitalise if City were to go on a poor run (which they show every sign of being capable to do).  66 points would probably give us about a 35% chance of fourth, maybe a bit higher.  I'd take that right now.

To get the 22 points we would need for that we need 7 wins from our last 10, or to go unbeaten.  We have 5 games in this run-in that you'd say we could easily drop points in: at Southampton, Tottenham, Stoke, Everton, and Chelsea.  The other 5 we would expect to win (though in fact I'm sure we won't win all 5).  It's a tough ask, for a team like us with some pretty big flaws, which is why I think the 68 points you point out is probably pretty unrealistic.  If, however, we can take 4 points from our next two games, you'd probably start to think we have a very good chance of achieving 66 and if we can get there then we'll have a shot.