Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA

[killer-heels]

I just did the top 4 predictor on the Echo website and LFC came 4th on 81 points, behind Spurs and City both on 82. This tells me that we actually want Arsenal and United to take points off these two to give us the edge.

81 points seem very optimisitic. 75 points should be the minimum aim and should seal 4th at least.

[sms1986]

I'm not sure. United can catch us and only GD would separate us, so any slip up by us could mean disaster. The best results, like this past weekend, are draws, where each team drops two points.

United have a very busy April and already have a few first team injuries. If Mourinho thinks they can win the Europa League, he'll concentrate on that before the league.

[Crosby Nick]

81 points seem very optimisitic. 75 points should be the minimum aim and should seal 4th at least.

Agreed. I think we'll drop quite a few points along the way but we shouldn't panic about it if we do.

I think our home games look decent for us. Palace will be tricky but I think 10 points is achievable.  If we get that we just need to make ourselves hard to beat in those away games. Even being fairly pessimistic,  say one win, one loss and two draws we'd take 15 points from our last 8 and 74 points.

That means Arsenal would need 24 from their last 10 to finish level (and if they did they might have the better GD).  Still seems a tall order for me, especially in their current form.

United have a worse GD so would probably need 22 from 10 to finish above us. Possible but again, a fairly tough ask given their remaining fixtures and European distractions.

74 points from here feels on the pessimistic side of things but would still give us a high chance of finishing top 4. Of course we should hope and aim for more but we need to keep calm and realise the odds are in our favour.

That said, anything other than a win against Bournemouth and  I think we might all feel a bit twitchy.

[joekim87]

Let's pray that every other team in the league only gets draws from here on out.

[cornelius]

It looks as if the Mancs will win the Europa with the teams left

Based on what? Has anyone actually watched United this season? They're one of the worst teams left in it.

[stockdam]

81 points seem very optimisitic. 75 points should be the minimum aim and should seal 4th at least.

81 points would be 7 wins and a draw from our last 8 games. That would be fantastic and the sort of run-in that may take us to 2nd.

I think the minimum we will need is 6 wins and a draw which would take us to 78 points. Anything less and Utd and City may both over-take us.

At this stage of the season you really need to be winning games and dropping few points. Chelsea are out of reach and so are probably Spurs. If Utd and City win their games in hand then it's going to be a tight finish where every point will be vital.

[JackWard33]

81 points would be 7 wins and a draw from our last 8 games. That would be fantastic and the sort of run-in that may take us to 2nd.

I think the minimum we will need is 6 wins and a draw which would take us to 78 points. Anything less and Utd and City may both over-take us.

At this stage of the season you really need to be winning games and dropping few points. Chelsea are out of reach and so are probably Spurs. If Utd and City win their games in hand then it's going to be a tight finish where every point will be vital.

We won't need 78.

Take United - for example - they're on 53 points with 10 games left. So to get to 78 they need 25 points out of 30 (but actually they'd need another point as they're unlikely to make up an 8 goal difference but whatever)
They still have to play Chelsea, Arsenal, City and Spurs. They're just not getting 8 wins from those games.

Something like 73/74 points should be more than enough for us.

(also one of city and united's games in hand is against each other so they can't both win their games in hand)

[Crosby Nick]

81 points would be 7 wins and a draw from our last 8 games. That would be fantastic and the sort of run-in that may take us to 2nd.

I think the minimum we will need is 6 wins and a draw which would take us to 78 points. Anything less and Utd and City may both over-take us.

At this stage of the season you really need to be winning games and dropping few points. Chelsea are out of reach and so are probably Spurs. If Utd and City win their games in hand then it's going to be a tight finish where every point will be vital.

The Mancs have to play each other so they can't both win their games in hand.

[RogerTheRed]

The blueshite helping well tonight 😊

[stockdam]

The blueshite helping well tonight 😊

Two of the dullest teams ever.

[stockdam]

We won't need 78.

Probably not but I think it's the minimum we will need to be sure. In reality we may be ok with less but I was stating what I think would be unpassable.

[sms1986]

United really needed to win tonight, a draw puts them further away from the top four.

[BobPaisley3]

With Yernited slipping away, Arsenal are increasingly becoming the team to worry about. Their remaining games are as follows:

West Ham H
Palace A
Boro A
Sunderland H
Leicester H
Spurs A
Yernited H
Stoke A
Everton H

Reckon they'll get 20 points minimum which would take them to 71. If they hit form, could be nearer 75. Only one they definitely won't win is Spurs away.  The rest aren't too bad, Palace away tough, Leicester home too, not much else. Hard to see them dropping points elsewhere despite their current malaise.

[rob1966]

We won't need 78.

Take United - for example - they're on 53 points with 10 games left. So to get to 78 they need 25 points out of 30 (but actually they'd need another point as they're unlikely to make up an 8 goal difference but whatever)
They still have to play Chelsea, Arsenal, City and Spurs. They're just not getting 8 wins from those games.

Something like 73/74 points should be more than enough for us.

(also one of city and united's games in hand is against each other so they can't both win their games in hand)

I wouldn't be surprised, from that showing tonight, if they fail to make 63 pts. Sunderland is the only game they have left you'd say they'll win, Burnley away is tough, can see them losing there, Swansea should be fighting for their survival, but they'll probably win that, Palace won't be easy and again could do what they did to Chelsea, Chelsea and City should batter them and Spurs won't do worse than a draw. Arsenal also will be no better than a draw for the Mancs.

[Crosby Nick]

With Yernited slipping away, Arsenal are increasingly becoming the team to worry about. Their remaining games are as follows:

West Ham H
Palace A
Boro A
Sunderland H
Leicester H
Spurs A
Yernited H
Stoke A
Everton H

Reckon they'll get 20 points minimum which would take them to 71. If they hit form, could be nearer 75. Only one they definitely won't win is Spurs away.  The rest aren't too bad, Palace away tough, Leicester home too, not much else. Hard to see them dropping points elsewhere despite their current malaise.

Confidence seems low though. Could come back with one good result but they're teetering on the brink. Fail to beat West Ham at home and they could tip.  We just have to keep the pressure mounting.

[BobPaisley3]

Confidence seems low though. Could come back with one good result but they're teetering on the brink. Fail to beat West Ham at home and they could tip.  We just have to keep the pressure mounting.

Yeah huge game tomorrow, two managers under pressure. Hopefully WH smash it upto Carroll and he bullies them.

[[new username under construction]]

Aren't Arsenal using their third choice keeper for the next few games as well?

[rickardinho1]

Remaining fixtures:



League Table:

                GP    GD    Pts
Chelsea   29    +37   69
Spurs       29    +36   62
Liverpool  30   +27   59
City          29    +24   58
United      29   +19   54
Arsenal    28    +22   51

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

Aren't Arsenal using their third choice keeper for the next few games as well?

For the West Ham game yes, but Cech will be back soon, maybe this weekend. However, Kosc is out for a few weeks at least.

Seriously, we have injuries sure, but we really shouldn't be fucking this up.

[Reeves]

Utd's draw puts top 4 in our hands now. That's important

[KurtVerbose]

Utd's draw puts top 4 in our hands now. That's important

Depending on results tomorrow, top 3 could be in our hands.

[Crosby Nick]

Remaining fixtures:



League Table:

                GP    GD    Pts
Chelsea   29    +37   69
Spurs       29    +36   62
Liverpool  30   +27   59
City          29    +24   58
United      29   +19   54
Arsenal    28    +22   51

Cheers. What do the colours signify?

Looking at that, after tomorrow City actually have a pretty straight forward run in.

Arsenal have enough tricky games left though,  really should be making 4th from here.

[Byrnee]

Utd's draw puts top 4 in our hands now. That's important

It always has been in our hands 1 - goal difference - the 6 point gap with two games in hand might as well have been a 7 point gap unless United won both 4-0 and continued then to outscore us. 2 - too many games between the top six meaning they can't all win all their games. Even if United had gone on a crazy ten game winning streak they'd be taking points off others above and around us leaving space for us to move into.

All that said, this is now easily and obviously well in our hands now without even knowing the fixtures for the run-in.

Win tomorrow against Bournemouth and with a bit luck all of Arsenal Spurs and City drop points and we can start to have others give up on catching us hopefully.

[Alan_X]

After the win against Burnley the Top six was as follows:

 Chelsea    P 27 Pts 66 GD 37. Maximum Pts 99

 Spurs      P 27 Pts 56 GD 33. Maximum Pts 89

 Man City   P 27 Pts 56 GD 24. Maximum Pts 89

 Liverpool  P 28 Pts 55 GD 25. Maximum Pts 85

 Arsenal    P 26 Pts 50 GD 24. Maximum Pts 86

 Man United P 26 Pts 49 GD 17. Maximum Pts 85

After tonight's draw between United & Everton the Top six is as follows:

 Chelsea    P 29 Pts 69 GD 37. Maximum Pts 96 (-3)

 Spurs      P 29 Pts 62 GD 36. Maximum Pts 89 (0)

 Liverpool  P 30 Pts 59 GD 27. Maximum Pts 83 (-2)

 Man City   P 29 Pts 58 GD 24. Maximum Pts 85 (-4)
 
Man United P 29 Pts 54 GD 19. Maximum Pts 81 (-4)
 
 Arsenal    P 28 Pts 51 GD 22. Maximum Pts 81 (-5)

[exiledintheUSA]

Said a while back that I thought it would need 75 pts to finish in the Top 4; now I'm not too sure - I think it might fall in at around 71/72 pts.

[rickardinho1]

Cheers. What do the colours signify?

Looking at that, after tomorrow City actually have a pretty straight forward run in.

Arsenal have enough tricky games left though,  really should be making 4th from here.

The colours signify the fixtures that are "Par 1's" (i.e. away fixtures against teams in the top 13 last season) as per the Alternative Premier League Table in the other thread.

[ac]

You don't have to put on the red light

  brilliant

[JackWard33]

Sensational result for us - they needed to win that game; very tough for them now

As a humorous side not they've run freakishly below ExpG over their last few home games - they've been genuinely unlucky... which is really funny

[drmick]

Bizarrely we will be cheering for Utd in a few games now most likely.

[him_15]

With Utd drawing and possibly focusing on the EL right now, I think the main threat for a top four finish is Arsenal. If they win their games in hand they would only be two points behind us, with a very close GD.

[joekim87]

Don't Arsenal have a bunch of injuries as well? A very unhappy Sanchez and a fan base that's very unhappy. I can't see them overtaking us anymore.

[Suareznumber7]

With Utd drawing and possibly focusing on the EL right now, I think the main threat for a top four finish is Arsenal. If they win their games in hand they would only be two points behind us, with a very close GD.

Yeah, we still need Utd and Arsenal to drop some more points to give us a bit more breathing room.

[Iloveyoumamadou]

74 points will be enough in my opinion. Man United play Spurs, Chelsea, City and Arsenal (plus Europa League) - no way will they get the 21points needed to catch us. Arsenal are more of a threat but their confidence is low. They're also consistently bad in big games under Wenger so I have faith that they'll drop enough points against  Spurs, United, Leicester and Everton.

Even with our injuries 4 wins-3 draws-1 loss or just 5 wins should be achievable with our fixtures

Although I do want to echo posters above that I'd like to see a formation change rather than forcing players into unfavoured positions just to fit 433. It's been hinted in the Telegraph that Klopp may change formation and my guess is that he's going to go three at the back against the ultra defensive sides

[rickardinho1]

74 points will be enough in my opinion. Man United play Spurs, Chelsea, City and Arsenal (plus Europa League) - no way will they get the 21points needed to catch us. Arsenal are more of a threat but their confidence is low. They're also consistently bad in big games under Wenger so I have faith that they'll drop enough points against  Spurs, United, Leicester and Everton.

Even with our injuries 4 wins-3 draws-1 loss or just 5 wins should be achievable with our fixtures

Although I do want to echo posters above that I'd like to see a formation change rather than forcing players into unfavoured positions just to fit 433. It's been hinted in the Telegraph that Klopp may change formation and my guess is that he's going to go three at the back against the ultra defensive sides

Personally I'd rather not see the entire formation change but instead just play people in their correct positions, even if it means giving a youngster some minutes.

            Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
             Lucas
      Wijnaldum Can
Trent                  Coutinho
            Firmino

Bench: Karius, Klavan, Moreno, Grujic, Woodburn, Wilson, Origi

If Trent is good enough to play RB at Old Trafford and play in the derby then why wouldn't he be good enough to play against Bournemouth at home? Same goes for Woodburn who came on for Coutinho vs Burnley at 1-1.

If Lucas isn't fit to play twice then put Trent in midfield.

              Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
               Can
       Trent    Wijnaldum
Firmino                   Coutinho
                Origi

[cornelius]

Neither Arsenal or United are getting to 73 points.

[killer-heels]

Neither Arsenal or United are getting to 73 points.

I cannot see it either certainly not United. Also Arsenal need an incredible turn around in form and confidence to do so.

I know these things dont really matter but it will be a fucking travesty if Arsenal get into the top four. They are a disgrace to the CL and an absolute waste of a CL space. They have no interest in even trying to win it.

[SerbianScouser]

Sorry, but it's not gonna happen for us.

Too many injuries at the crucial time and with 1.5 goals per game conceding ratio against bottom 13 teams that seems to continue we just can't do it.

[sms1986]

Sorry, but it's not gonna happen for us.

Too many injuries at the crucial time and with 1.5 goals per game conceding ratio against bottom 13 teams that seems to continue we just can't do it.

Kneejerk reaction from tonight's result. Who is going to replace us? City maybe, but even then there's four places. Arsenal and United are six points behind us and both haev been poor.

[Adeemo]

We'll probably just edge out United for 5th. Stoke away, West Brom away, Palace at home, followed by Watford away, we're going to really struggle with these fixtures. IMO we had to take all 3 points tonight, it's a hugely damaging result.

[SerbianScouser]

Kneejerk reaction from tonight's result. Who is going to replace us? City maybe, but even then there's four places. Arsenal and United are six points behind us and both haev been poor.

Arsenal is a major, major threat to us. They've regained a bit of confidence now and the reason why they're a big threat is because for years they are incredibly consistent against bottom 13 teams. With all the injuries we have and defensive incompetence against these teams finishing above Arsenal will be miracle at this point.